SPY: Bouncing between the 50 + 100D EMASPY bouncing between the 50D above and the 100D below. Will most likely stay that way this week. Safer players will wait until $460 or $64.72 trades to make a decision on what to play. Playing in the middle won't net much gain for SPY players.
If you play SPX or ES_F you can play the middle IMO.
Spyshort
SPY going to at least 459-460 againOnce again, SPY got rejected at the critical resistance and is going down. Every time it rejected this level previously, it went down at least -0.9% and at most -4.5%. I am expecting it to go down to either 460 or even 456-458 in the next two days. Tomorrow, it might close around 460 and then it might gap down on Tuesday and then we see the recovery either that day or the next due to the earnings.
For those interested in patterns, I see a bearish BATMAN pattern (the last rejection of the resistance was retest of the right ear.
This idea gets invalidated if SPY breaks above and holds 472.
It looks like a D*ck and i might get fked...took a short position at the beginning of the week thinking that it all the news would be potentially bearish. but then the pattern did this. and silly me didnt get out until it was too late i really hope this doesn't go structure to structure. any thoughts would help. Apple also moves like the spy so. I'm scared nothing can stop spy or apple
Critical levels for spyKeeping an eye to see if we bounce at the top of the red channel and retest the bottom of it, or if we we break the trend and test the next resistance levels. You can see in the green channel, bigger picture we filled the gap to the downside so I’m looking for confirmation on continuation but there is a lot of bearish divergence I’m seeing with this one. I am newb tho
"You cannot T.A. the VIX"Hi folks!
There is a saying that you cannot T.A. the VIX - as it is not directly tradeable and is derived from a complex computation based on short term options premiums of the S&P500.
However, the VIX also is an estimate of the expected short term volatility in the market (i.e. in the next 30 days), and by definition should be significantly correlated with realised volatility.
Thus, there are some measures you can take to try predicting market moves:
The Bollinger bands explicitly aims to model the short term realised volatility and the fact that periods of VERY low volatility often preceded periods of high volatility.
In my opinion, it makes perfect sense to analyse the VIX in terms of Bollinger Bands - on the 4h, which I usually use to trade both the VIX and the SPY in general.
I want to test a hypothesis that a very tight BB gap often leads to relatively large VIX spikes.
I also tried to combine it with the MACD indicator to see if we could find an even stronger buy signal, and here are my result based on my extremely brief study:
- A very tight BB gap "always" leads to a relatively large VIX spike.
- If you find a divergence in the MACD at the same time, the signal is even stronger (although the tight BB in itself seems to be the most important signal).
I did only include a chart since the covid-correction until now, as the findings are hard to vizualise over longer time frames.
In my humble opinion, it is absolutely time to buy the VIX now (although it may continue further down, it does not make a huge difference unless you have a tight SL/very short duration of your contracts).
DYOR.
NFA.
I wish you all well :)
$SPY last rally of the year?$SPY continuing its last rally of the year. but starts to show its weakness in smaller time frame chart. the weakness can be visibly shows in smaller time frames showing the momentum
of SPY start to curl down and volume of buyers starts to slowdown. respectably, although the it start to show some weaknesses doesn't mean its going to pull back. the stock is still
above the ema line. once we crossed that line in 1hr and 4hr time frame. that's probably our signals for the possible pull back. as of what happened yesterday SPY is just consolidating.
day trade and scalp play target.
buy call above 478.65-479 sell at 480+
buy puts below 475.68 sell at 474.50 or below
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SPX looking weakAlthough the S&P 500 has been pushing hard for the last year, I think the omicron shakeout has brought a new short term correction.
I have laid out the wave count in the chart. This was the 5 wave cycles of the intermediate wave 5 of the primary wave 3 (not highlighted here). This is also been confirmed by the EW channel drawn in the chart. I expect S&P to finish this correction when it hits 4330. However before dip further there will be a relief bounce which will create a lower high at around 4700. Then after hitting the resistance we will have wave C which will bring extreme fear in the market to terminate at 4300. There the sentiment will be rock bottom, However, it will hide great opportunity for the grab pushing the S&P to new highs in q1 and 2 of 2022.
I drew two different scenarios for this.
Why do I care about S&P? Because it directly affects the crypto market.
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$SPY KEY POINTS-SPY has taken some hits as fear rises due to the new covid variant scare
-These past 2 weeks are strong Red candles which show the strength of the bears
-SPY bounced off the 9-day ema on the weekly chart clean this week we will see how it plays out next week
-fib levels indicate that we will retrace back to the sweetspot if we break this support we will see $444.30s very soon
TWO THINGS can happen here:
1) SPY can bounce from that $449 level we talked about since it is acting as strong support and didn't seem to make newer lows Friday. We can see if we make new highs and just bounce from here
2)We are looking to see how spy plays around that $448.96 level IF she decided to break through that pricepoint on monday then we shall see $444 then $426 easily. Fibs are also indicating that one level was hit but the .618 level is down at $444 so we shall see how it plays out
IN SUMMARY: SO here's the game plan If we put all in all together the chances of scenario 1 (BULLS) are slim and with the new variant just breaking out but we can only wait. SCENARIO 2 now is very convincing and we can see SPY pulling down a little more down to $444 levels.
**Key levels to break**
1) $448.96 Below this we can see $444 then $426
2)$461 NOW if we break this level we can go pretty green on this bad boy pretty quick.