Beoing at overbought extremes.The Boeing Company - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 168.38 (stop at 175.05)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Trading within a Corrective Channel formation.
A break of the recent low at 168.50 should result in a further move lower.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
The bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart is negative for sentiment.
Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains.
This stock has seen poor sales growth.
Our profit targets will be 151.71 and 149.71
Resistance: 180 / 190 / 198
Support: 171 / 163 / 155
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Stockmarketanalysis
Buying ASM on dips.ASM International - Intraday - We look to Buy at 232.1 (stop at 219.8)
Levels below 230 continue to attract buyers.
Trading has been mixed and volatile.
A lower correction is expected.
Bespoke support is located at 230.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 230 level.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Our profit targets will be 262.9 and 272.9
Resistance: 270.0 / 280.0 / 290.0
Support: 255.0 / 245.0 / 230.0
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
USOILBeen charting this move since mid July 2022, we are getting close to a bottom IMO, currently
testing the bottom TL of the mega phone pattern.
Now looks like a support flipped into resistance.
Targets remain $45-$55 for a bottom and likely big bounce from there. Which is the 618% from the covid 2020 crash when prices went negative.
Bad econ data = Fed Pivot = Good Mid-Term Markets = Blow-off TopTraders,
My apologies for being exempt with weekly market updates for the last several weeks. We have a lot to cover so this video will be a longer one. We'll talk Dollar, VIX, S&P500, Stocks, U.S. Housing Markets, Freight Container collapse, Crypto, and more.
I'll see you all in the next video.
Stew
S&P500 - Big Correction Incoming 📉Taking a look at the SPX Daily chart.🍿
We've drawn out 3 dip + rallies to illustrate that a 4th dip might be on the way. ⬇️
After being rejected at 4000, we can see the path down to 3300-3400 looks increasingly more likely. 📉
This combined with an expected/rumored earnings slump & lackluster Q4 for companies...🥶
We've also thrown on the US Equity Gaps indicator to help confirm this thought process.
Credit card debt at record levels, thousands being laid off, basically dead real estate market...not much reason to be bullish rolling into 2023. 🐻
-TucciNomics
Chief Overlord
Nasdaq 100 will keep falling. Here are some key levels to trade!The chart shows my macro plan on the Nasdaq. I believe with fed rate hikes today we will start again another decent lower in the markets. The Nasdaq has great potential to see a nice relief bounce off of the Golden Pocket noted on the chart. This small rally will most likely be stopped in its tracks at the descending trendline (if it even gets that far). After a solid rejection at the trendline the Nasdaq will head lower into the .786 fib retracement and into a major uptrend support line. If this line holds and the fed has stopped hiking rates it is very possible that the Nasdaq could breakout of the descending parallel channel.
BYND bind in a range.Beyond Meat - 30d expiry - We look to Sell at 16.18 (stop at 17.45)
The primary trend remains bearish.
This stock has seen poor sales growth.
Price action continued to range between key support & resistance (12 - 16) and we expect this to continue.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
16 continues to hold back the bulls.
The bias is to break to the downside.
Our profit targets will be 13.01 and 12.51
Resistance: 13.10 / 14.30 / 15.50
Support: 12.10 / 11.56 / 11.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash.
* CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . US Equity Futures are starting the week down as Cryptos are attempting to finish the week up (barely). Markets are apparently getting spooked by the unrest in China and how it may affect demand if the CCP is to enforce stricter lockdowns with the uptick in Covid infections. It's unprecedented to see this kind of revolt in China in modern times, with chants in Shanghai for the CCP and Xi Jinping to step down ; all I can say is, bravo to the Chinese citizens for standing up to the scam that is Covid lockdowns. It's a big week for economic data so be prepared for a bit of volatility if the numbers point to more inflation.
JPYUSD is up. Meanwhile DXY, US Treasuries, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Metals, Energy, Agriculture, HSI, NI225, CNYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 11/29; 2nd BEA Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am EST 11/30; Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Brookings Institute at 130pm EST 11/30; Beige Book at 2pm EST 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; November Employment Situation at 830am EST 12/02; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 .*
Price finished last week stalling at $4026, just below $4058 minor resistance which coincides with the 200MA. Volume was Low (high) due to a shortened trading session and has favored buyers for three consecutive sessions; it has also been shrinking for ten consecutive sessions which is indicative of an impending breakout/breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3867, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 62; the next resistance is at 68 and the next support at 53. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 97 as it approaches a retest of max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 62 but is still technically testing 55 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 21 as Price continues to push higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment.
If Price is able to breakout above $4058 minor resistance + the 200MA then it will likely retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at $4175 resistance for the first time since 08/22/22. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely fall back to ~$3953 as support before potentially retesting $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3953.
Is TSLA setting the tone!Bulls found some sort of solidarity in the FEDs minutes today. And showed it with a strong stance by buyers closing the day with strength and displaying the majority will of todays retailers. And their desire to reap profit from this shopping season .
We need to consider that the big institutions where not actively trading today. And yet Volume on some stocks did not decline by much.
Question can this be a definitive stance?
Or a retest of resistances in $184 and $187 since we are still in a macro Bear trend.
Bear will attempt a stance at $183 but if a Daily open is above this price they will not be able to hold and I would be looking for $187 and $190 for next targets.
A rejection of $183 will be decided between $181 and $180 with potential selloff if Buyers are unable to keep price above $180
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% SPX, 40% Cash.
**Happy Thanksgiving. Thank you for reading, I hope I've helped you navigate the markets in 2022. Through helping you, it has helped me develop a better understanding of what moves markets and I'm grateful.**
*Tomorrow is a short day for trading with US stock markets closing at 1pm and Bond markets closing at 2pm. Equity Markets are still riding the "Fed pivot" narrative that has been flourishing since the FOMC Minutes were published yesterday but it's important to remember that Russia is continuing to weaken Ukraine's power grid and that war and supply chain disruptions can escalate at any given time. Binance CEO CZ announced that Binance.US is making another bid for bankrupt crypto lender Voyager after FTX was unable to complete the acquisition . Binance also announced a 1B BUSD crypto recovery fund (Industry Recovery Initiative) for companies seeking support during the crypto winter . CZ is preaching transparency and even listed the public address for Binance's initial commitment of 1B BUSD, which sounds good in theory but to be honest everyone should be a bit wary of exchange tokens right now; I think it's justifiable to be skeptical of Binance's solvency but as of now it's between them, Coinbase and Kraken when it comes to the top 3 crypto exchanges. There's not too much going on in terms of key economic data until next Wednesday.
US Equity Futures, DXY, Oil, Gold, N100, GBPUSD, EURUSD and JPYUSD are up. US Treasury Bonds, Cryptos, Natural Gas, CNYUSD, NI225 and HSI are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 11/29; 2nd BEA Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am EST 11/30; Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Brookings Institute at 130pm EST 11/30; Beige Book at 2pm EST 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; November Employment Situation at 830am EST 12/02; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14. *
Price finished yesterday's session trending up at $4027 as it approaches a test of $4058 minor resistance which coincides with the 200MA. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored buyers for the previous two sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3844, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 62, the next resistance is at 68.42. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 82 as it approaches a retest of max top (it's currently in the "bullish autobahn zone"). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 61 as it attempts to break above 55.35 minor resistance; if it can do this it will aim to retest the ATH at 92.49. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 20 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment and would become strongly bullish if it can continue this correlation above 25.
If Price is able to push higher here then it will likely test $4058 minor resistance which would coincide with the 200MA. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3953.
Buying Sanofi break of resistance.Sanofi - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 88.41 (stop at 84.78)
Previous resistance level of 83 broken.
Short term bias has turned positive.
88.34 has been pivotal.
A break of the recent high at 88.34 should result in a further move higher.
Prices have reacted from 81.93.
Overnight losses have been limited.
Our outlook is bullish.
Our profit targets will be 97.48 and 99.48
Resistance: 88.40 / 91.00 / 95.00
Support: 86.00 / 84.00 / 82.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Buying Danone breakout.Danone - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 50.81 (stop at 49.58)
Price action has formed a bullish ascending triangle formation.
50.73 has been pivotal.
Posted a Double Top formation.
A break of the recent high at 50.74 should result in a further move higher.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
In our opinion this stock is undervalued.
Our profit targets will be 53.88 and 54.48
Resistance: 50.80 / 52.30 / 53.40
Support: 49.40 / 48.70 / 48.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Buying Alstom at previous resistance.Alstom - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 22.22 (stop at 21.24)
Previous resistance at 22.00 now becomes support.
22.02 has been pivotal.
A lower correction is expected.
We look to buy dips.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Selling posted close to the previous high of 25.67.
The daily chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
Our profit targets will be 24.69 and 24.99
Resistance: 25.00 / 25.80 / 27.00
Support: 23.50 / 22.50 / 22.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
S&P500 under resistance againStrong impulse took SPX to 4035 SR and rejected from there back below August close. If index won't find acceptance back above it, it will drop back to October close ~3875 and possibly lower to ~3811. Cross roads situation. On week there is still potential to grow to ~4100, so all depends on how this week close.
S&P 500 index: Bear market rally to top out at 4,050?The S&P 500 ( US 500 ) has experienced a remarkable 15% rally since its lows on October 13. This was the second bear market rally in 2022, after the US stock market officially entered a bear market in May.
If we are currently undergoing a two-month bear market rally similar to the one saw last summer, the S&P 500 index is expected to peak at about 4,050 points on December 13.
On that day, the US will release its November CPI inflation figures, and the Federal Reserve will meet just one day later.
Technically, the index is trading near the 4,000-point psychological barrier, which also corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the lows to the highs of 2022. The 200-day moving average is located just above this level at 4,076 points right now and may shortly follow the path of the 2022 bearish trendline.
This multi-resistance zone between the critical 4,000 and 4,050/60 marks could be a significant technical hurdle for the S&P 500, where bulls may struggle to move further.
Two possible outcomes could follow, depending on whether the S&P 500 breaks through this significant resistance area or not.
1) Head-and-shoulders pattern with SPX heading towards 3,500
If the bear market rally peaks at 4,050 in December, the price action will have formed the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern, which depicts the S&P 500 index falling below the neckline at 3,500 points by the end of 2022 or the start of the next year.
2) Breakout and extension towards August highs
Alternatively, a breakout of the multi-resistance zone around 4,050 may occur if US inflation continues to decline and the Federal Reserve adopts a less hawkish approach in December.
In that case, the index might extend its gains toward 4,156, which represents 50% of the Fibonacci retracement, and possibly test the August highs at 4,323, which would complete 61.8% of the retracement.
SPX: The Great Recovery?Throughout history, one can always look back and categorize a period of time such as "The Great War", "The Great Depression", "The Progressive Era", "The Gilded Age", etc. We humans do not think of the present in such terms because everything feels as it is. There is no cognitive thought that can pinpoint that we are in a historical period until we reach what is known as hindsight. A pivotal point of reflection on the past that enlightens in a way that was not previously possible. This exact dynamic is why historical data and charts are so important in not necessarily predicting the future, but by considering a calculated perception not possible without this information.
So, let's use this information to our advantage.
Here are just a few historical facts:
~No bear market in history ended before the recession
~No bear market in history ended with the Fed raising rates
~No bear market in history ended before the true Fed pivot
~No bear market persistent inversion was NOT followed by a recession (US10Y-US02Y has been inverted since July) & (US10Y-US03M inverted in October).
President Biden last week touted, "The US economy is expanding, and income has increased faster than inflation".
Okay well, two things:
First, here is a simple but impactful fact;
Since the start of this year, Stock Market losses have wiped $9 Trillion from Americans' wealth
www.cnbc.com
Second, if wages are growing faster than inflation (Inflation grew exponentially in comparison to the last 40 years), then why is the data showing an immense gap between Labor costs & Corporate profits?
www.epi.org
Its best to see the data for yourself, but here is a snippet:
Corporate profits- (2020 Q2-2021 Q4= 53.9%) & (1979-2019= 11.4%)
Unit Labor Cost- (2020 Q2-2021 Q4= 7.9%) & (1979-2019= 61.8%)
That is roughly a 155% difference in the WRONG direction. (Unit Labor Cost)
This exact same dynamic was the main reason for the Great Depression to have happened in the first place. Corporation profits grew larger while Labor Wages vastly lagged behind. It not only led to a complete collapse of industrial spending but would condemn the economy to almost a decade of misery and mediocrity.
Let's move on to arguably the most important part of the post which is the FED's preferred Recession Indicator. (US10Y-US3M). It has finally flashed a Recession warning as it has inverted for the 4th time since 2000. Each time this has happened there has been a Recession that followed.
Pair this with the Energy crisis across the world which has also marked very valid Recession signals:
It is also well known that the housing market holds the majority of individual wealth so let's take a peek at where it stands:
This chart from a technical perspective almost guarantees a local top after housing prices soared by almost 27% following the 2020 recovery. Take a look at the RSI paired with rapid acceleration to the upside. What follows is pretty clear, at least locally.
Interestingly enough, a FED Pivot/Inflation Peaking is amongst the most popular narratives being passed along and at face value it makes sense, but once you dive deeper the matter makes anything but sense. Let me explain:
Here is Inflation overlayed with the FEDS Fund Rate:
As you can see, not only was the FED late to the party regarding policy to fight inflation (possibly intentional due to exponential debt) but it also wasn't until Interest Rates matched the Level of Inflation was when Inflation truly peaked. This has not been met today.
Furthermore, let's see what happens once the FED pivots and begins decreasing rates again:
Again, if you notice when the FED began to decrease rates, the market did NOT act the way the public is expecting it to react today. It is a counterintuitive proposition because it is positive that monetary policy is more favorable but WHY is the FED decreasing rates? Most likely because of economic weakness. If the FED is hiking confidently, this means the economy is still intact and able to hold the brunt of the impact. This dynamic is missed by a great majority of market participants.
One thing I want to focus on in the last chart is the 40-year trend break of monetary policy. We see this break in all charts representing yields/rates in terms of governmental sectors. For example;
Here is the US10Y: Breaking a 40-Year trend
As well as the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage does the exact same thing:
This to me indicates we are in a historical transitional period. If this is in fact the case, this would mean we would be transitioning from the old trend to a new trend. Now let's think about what trend we have been in for the last 20 years minimum. Its been astronomical QE and endless money printing which has brought us to today. What's on the flip side of this coin?
TOP US-Stocks: WatchlistWatchlist Update
All stocks on our watchlists meet the hard selection criteria according to Mark Minervini's Trend-Template and William o' Neil's CAN SLIM methodology.
All stocks are in the process of developing a Perfect Buy Point and a low-risk entry, following a volatility contraction pattern.
Here is the link to the updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% SPX, 52% Cash.
* MINOR DOWNWARD CORRECTION WATCH . Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Oil, Agriculture, NI225, EURUSD, GBPUSD and JPYUSD are all down. DXY, Long-Term US Treasuries, VIX, Gold, Natural Gas, HSI and CNYUSD are up. US President Biden and China President Jinping met today for 3 hours in Bali ending months of limited communication between the two countries after US House Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. It ended with Biden promising to defend Japan, South Korea and U.S. interests from North Korea while reaffirming U.S. support for Taiwan's military; and Jinping making it clear that China-Taiwan relations are a red line that must not be crossed by the U.S. The Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal is set to expire on 11/19.
Key Upcoming Dates: Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; US October Retail Sales at 830am EST 11/16; US October Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 11/17; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 . *
Price is currently trending down at $3957 after breaking above $3913 minor support last week. Volume remains High (low) and broke a two day streak of buyer dominance with a red close in today's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3715, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 59 after forming a short-term peak at 62, the next support is at 52.68. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 76 with no signs of peak formation, the next resistance is max top. MACD is currently trending up at 40 with signs of a soft peak formation and is still technically testing 33 resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 18 while Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $4058 minor resistance which should coincide with the 200MA. However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4000.
Selling DHER at 50% retracement.Delivery Hero - 30d expiry - We look to Sell at 40.44 (stop at 44.22)
Levels close to the 50% pullback level of 40.50 found sellers.
The primary trend remains bearish.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Levels close to the 78.6% pullback level of 31.00 found buyers.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 31.66 and 28.66
Resistance: 37.50 / 40.00 / 45.00
Support: 35.00 / 31.50 / 28.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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