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[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Understanding Forex Market StructureHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Let's begin with our topic today! The forex market, being decentralized and over-the-counter (OTC), operates differently from traditional centralized exchanges. To navigate it effectively, traders need to comprehend its unique structure. Market structure refers to the arrangement of price action within a given market, encompassing key elements such as trends, support and resistance levels, and price behavior. 1. Trends: Trends are one of the fundamental aspects of market structure. They depict the overall direction of price movement over time. Traders often classify trends as bullish (upward), bearish (downward), or ranging (sideways). Understanding the prevailing trend helps traders align their strategies accordingly. 2. Support and Resistance Levels: Support and resistance levels (or known as supply and demand levels/zones) are areas where price tends to stall, reverse, or exhibit significant buying or selling pressures. These levels/areas form the building blocks of market structure and are crucial for identifying potential entry and exit points. Support represents levels where buying interest outweighs selling pressure, preventing prices from falling further. Conversely, resistance denotes areas where selling pressure surpasses buying interest, hindering further upward movement. If you have cluster of candle's tail in a area/levels, likely it would be supply/demand liquidity pocket 3. Price Behavior: Price behavior within market structure provides valuable insights into market sentiment and participant dynamics. Patterns such as higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend, signify the strength or weakness of a trend. Additionally, the manner in which price interacts with support and resistance levels can indicate potential reversals or continuations. 4. Market Phases: Understanding different phases of the market, such as accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown, aids in deciphering market structure. Each phase reflects the behavior of market participants and their collective impact on price action. Recognizing these phases enables traders to anticipate potential shifts in market direction and adjust their strategies accordingly. Conclusion: In summary, comprehending forex market structure is essential for effective trading. By analyzing trends, identifying key support and resistance levels, observing price behavior, and recognizing market phases, traders can make informed decisions and navigate the forex market with confidence. Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
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by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
EURUSD 13-17 May 2024 W20 - Weekly Analysis - EU & US CPI Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 13-17 May 2024 W20 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment The narrative surrounding the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the rest of its G10 peers continues to dominate the macro scenario in the market. On this, the FedWatch Tool tracked by CME Group sees the probability of a Fed’s rate reduction in September nearly 70%. With the inflation reports expected this week (CPI), If inflation stays high but doesn't speed up much more, the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for a longer time. This is because the market is worried about inflation staying high, and if there's a surprise where inflation doesn't increase as much as feared, the reaction will likely be smaller. Powell, said they would only raise rates if they had convincing proof that their current policies are too tight. Right now, the market expects interest rates to be cut twice by the end of the year. However, if we see another report showing high inflation, those expectations might change. A weaker report might lead to just one rate cut being expected instead of two, but not much more than that. The Federal Reserve might wait until their meeting in September at the earliest to make any major decisions, unless there's a sudden worsening in the job market. Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2. After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low. 3. Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation. Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low. 4. Price tapped into a Weekly demand zone that is currently providing Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low. Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2. Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing. 3. After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback. Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone which initiated the Bearish iBOS Pullback Phase. As expected last week with the probability of a deep pullback, price reached the Daily Supply. With that deep Pullback, there is a HP that we can continue the Bearish INT Structure with expectation to target the Weak INT Low and possibly the Weak Swing Low. More development required on LTF to show signs of Bearish Structure to validate the expectations. 4. Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Reached Swing EQ INT Structure Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. With the 4H INT is Bullish, it's for me not much aligning with the Daily TF which makes the view unclear from a trend prospective. Are we going to hold Bullish Internal to maybe have a more deeper PB on Daily, or we are going to turn bearish on the 4H Internal to continue the Daily Swing/INT Structure trend. With the current week inflationary reports coming out from EU and US, most probably we will have more price development that can facilitate a HP setups. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
3
EURUSD 9 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 9 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Nothing changed since the start of the week and as per Tuesday sentiment, investors are waiting for a catalyst to have a clear policy direction for the upcoming quarter. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Reached Swing EQ INT Structure Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. Nothing much changed since yesterday as we just tapping into a demand zone (FLIP) that may provide some bullish reaction. INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply. Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish. More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long : Phase B (LP) Short : Phase C (HP) 2. Finally we are barely out from Friday NFP Range and price still ranging with clear direction. With a Bearish iBOS we confirmed the 15m Swing Pullback. Currently price tapped and formed Bullish Sub-Internal Structure that is facilitating the INT Pullback. Not convinced much of Longs as per our position in the HTF (Tapped into Daily Supply), instead will follow the Bearish INT Structure and look for Shorts from 15m Supply that are well positioned within the Swing. 3. 15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 8 May 2024 W19 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Nothing changed since the start of the week and as per yesterday sentiment here, investors are waiting for a catalyst to have a clear policy direction for the upcoming quarter. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Reached Swing EQ INT Structure Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. Nothing much changed since yesterday as we just tapping into a demand zone (FLIP) that may provide some bullish reaction. INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply. Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish. More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long : Phase B (LP) Short : Phase C (HP) 2. Finally we are barely out from Friday NFP Range. With a Bearish iBOS we confirmed the 15m Swing Pullback. Currently price tapped into a 4H Demand which could initiate the INT Structure PB. Bullish CHoCH will be the first sign that the INT PB is starting. Not convinced much of Longs as per our position in the HTF (Tapped into Daily Supply), instead will follow the Bearish INT Structure and look for Shorts from 15m Supply that are well positioned within the Swing. 3. 15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 7 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - EU Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Today's sentiment for EUR/USD pair is shaped by pivotal occurrences from the previous week. The release of weaker-than-anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data prompted a decline in the US dollar, lending some buoyancy to the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wielded considerable influence. The FOMC opted to maintain the policy interest rate and continue tapering securities holdings. Powell reiterated the Fed's unwavering commitment to achieving their 2% inflation target. Consequently, there's a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, keeping the EUR/USD pair comfortably above the 1.0750 threshold. However, the market remains vigilant ahead of this week's data releases. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Reached Swing EQ INT Structure Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply. Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish. More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long : Phase A2 Short : Phase D 2. Nothing changed since yesterday, price still ranging! Swing failed to continue Bearish and with NFP we created a Bullish BOS which reached the Daily Supply Zone. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. INT structure is Bullish which means we still in Bullish continuation. With the 4H created a Bullish iBOS and requesting a Pullback, i prefer to look for Shorts after a Bearish iBOS. Longs will be ideal for me when we reach the 4H demand zone within the 15m Swing. 3. 15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 6 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Nothing changed from Friday, the EUR/USD surged to reach a new high for the week, surpassing recent congestion levels. This uptick followed a significant shortfall in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data regarding labor and wages. The disappointing figures revived expectations across the market for a quicker pace of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reductions. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Reached Swing EQ INT Structure Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply. Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish. More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long : Phase A2 Short : Phase D 2. Swing failed to continue Bearish and with NFP we created a Bullish BOS which reached the Daily Supply Zone. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. INT structure is Bullish which means we still in Bullish continuation. With the 4H created a Bullish iBOS and requesting a Pullback, i prefer to look for Shorts after a Bearish iBOS. Longs will be ideal for me when we reach the 4H demand zone within the 15m Swing. 3. 15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 6-10 May 2024 W19 Weekly AnalysisThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 6-10 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment On Friday, the EUR/USD surged to reach a new high for the week, surpassing recent congestion levels. This uptick followed a significant shortfall in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data regarding labor and wages. The disappointing figures revived expectations across the market for a quicker pace of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reductions. Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2. After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low. 3. Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation. Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low. 4. Price tapped into a Weekly demand zone that is currently providing Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low. Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2. Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing. 3. After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback. Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone which initiated the Bearish iBOS Pullback Phase. As expected last week with the probability of a deep pullback, price reached the Daily Supply. With that deep Pullback, there is a HP that we can continue the Bearish INT Structure with expectation to target the Weak INT Low and possibly the Weak Swing Low. More development required on LTF to show signs of Bearish Structure to validate the expectations. 4. Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Reached Swing EQ INT Structure Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply. Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish. More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 2 May 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI / US Jobless This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 2 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Market sentiment is mixed following the Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's speech. The US dollar initially strengthened after the Fed, but then weakened as investors focused on the central bank's dovish comments. This could be positive for EURUSD, which climbed after the Fed meeting. However, caution is still warranted as Non-Farm Payroll data, a key US jobs report, is due on Friday, which could impact the dollar and EURUSD again. The following news today will have some volatility before NFP tomorrow: German Mfg PMI Final Eurozone Mfg PMI Final US Trade Balance US Initial Jobless Claims 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. As the INT Structure turned Bearish, it signals that the Swig PB maybe over and we are currently Pro Swing. After the Bearish iBOS we are expecting a PB which already reached the Refined 4H FLIP Zone. Currently the Liquidity above the 4H Supply which makes it not a HP Zone for Shorts unless we have clear Bearish Structure formation on the 15m. I Prefer the Sweep of Liq above the 4H Supply (CHoCH) before Shorts. Also be mindful that the Strong INT High could be run in the situation of a complex Deeper Pullback Phase for the 4H Swing. With FOMC Yesterday and NFP tomorrow, this is the behavior of price due to Investors positioning. Note: Daily is ranging and 4H too 🤷‍♂️ 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Shorts Phase B (HP) Longs Phase C (LP) 2. With the volatility of yesterday news, price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme. No clear direction as we are back again to the same range we are in since Apr 23. Shorts make sense, but no potential POI / Clear INT Structure to follow. Also with the 4H Liquidity above the 15m Swing High, there is a HP that the 15m Swing will get run. 3. After the Bearish BOS we expected a Pullback, which was initiated after the Bullish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
1
EURUSD 1 May 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - US FOMC/Powell Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment A day the markets awaits loaded with high impact news events. Starting with US ADP, Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings and ending with Rate Decision and Powell speech. Today's FOMC Statement and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech are eagerly anticipated by the market, as both have the potential to significantly influence the EUR/USD pair. The Dollar Index has advanced as investor focus shifts to these pivotal events. Should the FOMC statement or Powell's comments lean towards a more hawkish stance, indicating a preference for higher interest rates, it could bolster the US dollar and exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Conversely, if the statement or remarks lean towards a more dovish stance, suggesting a inclination towards lower interest rates, it could weaken the US dollar and generate some upward movement for the EUR/USD pair. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. No clear Demand zone available to initiate the INT Structure Pullback. Price could continue bearish without Pullback as we are in the Swing Continuation Phase. Expectation is set to continue bearish targeting the Weak Swing Low. 4. With the recent INT Structure turning Bearish confirming the Swing Pullback Phase may had ended, the Swing Bearish Continuation Phase started targeting the Weak Swing Low. Current 4H Supply (FLIP Zone) could provide an opportunity for Shorts after the Bearish iBOS inline with the Bearish Swing and Continuation Phase. Also be mindful that today is loaded with high impact news which will have a high volatility. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish OF Bearish 2. Swing continuing Bearish with Bearish BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. There is no HTF Zone that can be potential for the Swing Pullback Phase. Will wait for INT Structure to turn Bullish to look for Longs. Otherwise i prefer Shorts from the 4H Supply as it aligns with the HTF Bearish Phase and targets. 3. No Clear Demand to initiate the Swing Pullback. Waiting for INT Structure formation.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 30 Apr 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI GDP / US CFThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 April 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Sentiment from Monday (April 29th) could carry over to Tuesday, depending on the outcome of Eurozone data releases (CPI, GDP) and US ( Consumer Confidence). A strong Euro today due to positive data might see some continuation. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Sub-Internal Bullish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase. With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there. 4. With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line). A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply. More Price development needed. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Sell: Phase B (HP) Long: Phase C (LP) 2. Swing turned Bearish signaling the probability that the 4H Pullback is maybe over and we may resume the 4H Bearish continuation move. No much change from yesterday, we still ranging within a Bullish INT Structure within a Bearish Swing. Possible Longs from the the current fresh 15m demand but be mindful that we swept the Liquidity below it and the 15m Bearish Swing could continue and run the INT Low. Shorts are currently not my interest till we have another Bearish Swing. 3. 15m Demand within the INT Structure as it could provide a Low Probability Long Phase C trade.
by Amr-Sadek
2
EURUSD 29 Apr 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - GER CPIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 April 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment No major economic data releases are scheduled for Monday, limiting significant movement in the pair. However, the intervention in JPY leading to a USD weakness which will provide support for EURUSD some Bullish stand. Also note that the current week includes EU CPI and US FOMC / NFP which most probably result in a volatility and investors are positioning for that upcoming news events. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Sub-Internal Bullish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase. With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there. 4. With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line). A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply. More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bullish Sell: Phase B (HP) Long: Phase C (LP) 2. Swing turned Bearish signaling the probability that the 4H Pullback is maybe over and we may resume the 4H Bearish continuation move. Currently price at a 15m/4H Supply zones that could initiate the Swing continuation phase. Possible Phase B Shorts but be mindful that the 4H INT Structure still Bullish and we may see another deep Swing pullback which will reflect on a Bullish 15m Swing BOS. 3. 15m Demand within the INT Structure as it could provide a Low Probability Long Phase C trade.
by Amr-Sadek
1
EURUSD 29-3 May 2024 W18 Weekly Analysis - FOMC / NFP Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 29-3 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment Potential EUR Upside: Weaker Dollar: The recent US economic data, particularly the lower than expected GDP growth, has weakened the US dollar. This trend could continue if upcoming data disappoints. Eurozone Data: Key Eurozone data releases (flash GDP and CPI) could show signs of improving economic health, boosting the Euro. Potential EUR Downside: Strong US Jobs Report: The highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could show strong job growth, strengthening the dollar. Hawkish Fed: The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday is a key event. If the Fed signals a more aggressive rate hike path to combat inflation, the dollar will likely strengthen. Overall: The EUR/USD sentiment is currently uncertain. The direction will depend on the outcome of key data releases and the Fed meeting. Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2. After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low. 3. Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation. Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low. 4. Price currently within a Weekly demand zone that can initiate a minor Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low. Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2. Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing. 3. After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price is within the Weekly Demand and swept Liq from the left. Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone. We didn't mitigate any HP Supply to initiate the INT Structure continuation phase so the scenario will be that price still could continue to mitigate the Daily Supply Zone. Other scenario that with the corrective more currently we are in price will continue down without the mitigation of a Supply zone. More price development required / LTF confirmations for the 2 scenarios. 4. Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Sub-Internal Bullish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase. With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there. 4. With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line). A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply. More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 26 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US PCE Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 26 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15 Chart Analysis Market Sentiment PCE as the next hurdle: The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is the key event today. This data is a crucial inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve. Potential scenarios based on PCE: Higher than expected PCE: This suggests stronger US inflation, which could bolster the USD. Investors might anticipate a more hawkish stance from the Fed (raising interest rates), making the USD a more attractive investment. This scenario could weaken the Euro. Lower than expected PCE: This suggests cooling inflation, potentially weakening the USD. If inflation is under control, the Fed might be less aggressive with rate hikes, making the USD less appealing. This scenario could strengthen the Euro. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase. With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there. Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback. 4. With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line). Current Sub-INT structure doesn't have any clear Demand and we are currently within the Supply Zone formed during the news yesterday and with PCE today, i'd expect high volatility similar to yesterday. Today for me is a day to analyze and not to trade 😃 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. With the Swing containing Bullish and Swing Low did hold the volatility yesterday, I couldn't find a clear POI within the Swing to continue Bullish except the Demand down. Expectations with the current PA is that the Weak Swing High will get run. But be mindful that today US PCE news will have the market ranging till the news. As indicated in the 4H analysis, Today is the day where you analyze and don't trade as more clear setups will be available next week. 3. 15m Demand for possible longs if we are continuing Bullish.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 25 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US GDP / JoblessThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Euro's recent strength: The Euro has gained some ground against the USD lately, fueled by weaker US data and supporting the Pullback Phase after the YTD lows. US data as a game changer: The upcoming US GDP and Jobless Claims reports are the main event. Strong numbers could significantly strengthen the USD, reversing the Euro's recent gains. Cautious market: Investors are holding back until the data is released, creating a wait-and-see sentiment that could limit the Euro's upside potential specially with US PCE Inflation Report tomorrow. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase. With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there. Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback. 4. As price reached the 4H Supply with Bullish OF, price showed a bearish reaction as expected to facilitate a Pullback to recent Demand. Price tapped into the 4H Demand and currently in the momentum to create a new high. As indicated previously, the Liquidity on the left above the 4H Supply and possibly the Swing EQ are the targets. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long: Phase A Short: Phase C (Require Bearish iBOS) 2. Price mitigation to the 4H Demand. 3. Price turned bullish after mitigating the 4H Demand turning INT structure to Bullish. With INT structure is Bullish, expectations are set that we are going to target the Weak Swing High. But be mindful that we are still within the 4H Supply Zone that is partially mitigated yesterday so Phase A2 after the BOS will be tough. But Phase C will be applicable if we have a Bearish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
1
EURUSD 24 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US Durable GoodsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 24 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment EURUSD is slightly bullish: The Euro is currently showing some strength, having gained yesterday strong Euro data and on weaker US data. Market is cautious: Upcoming US inflation data is keeping investors cautious, potentially limiting gains for the Euro. US Durable Goods will be the watch today for volatility. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price within the Weekly Demand and approaching a 4H/Daily demand zone. As expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there. Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback. 4. 4H Supply zone for possible reactions. But note that it's not well positioned within the 4H Swing (In Discount) so there is a probability that it will get run till the Swing EQ/Daily Supply zone. Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign fora bearish reaction from the 4H Supply. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Long: Phase A2 Short: Phase C (Require Bearish iBOS) 2. Price had created another Bullish Swing BOS aligning with the HTF requirements for a Pullback. Price had reached 4H Supply zone which could initiate the Swing Pullback Phase. For a PB phase to start we need a Bearish iBOS. 3. Current INT Low is the 4H Fractal CHoCH
by Amr-Sadek
What is FLAT in the markets, practical tips☝️Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!! The main purpose of my resources is free, actionable education for anyone who wants to learn trading and improve mental and technical trading skills. Learn from hundreds of videos and the real story of a particular trader, with all the mistakes and pain on the way to consistency. I'm always glad to discuss and answer questions. 🙌 ☝️ALL videos here are for sharing my experience purposes only, not financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as a simulated, educational environment. Important disclaimer - this idea is just a possibility and my extremely subjective opinion. Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!!
Education
by Yelli_trades
EURUSD 23 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - EU/US PMI Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Today's EUR/USD Forex market is going to be influenced by big economic news. This includes updates on the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for both the Eurozone and the USA. Right now, the EUR/USD pair is ranging as we get ready for today PMI updates. Both the US and Europe will be releasing their PMI numbers today. These PMI numbers tell us a lot about how well the economy is doing and can really impact the EUR/USD. If the numbers come in higher than expected, it's likely good news for the currency, but if they're lower than expected, it could mean trouble for the currency. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish INT / Swing Pullback Phase 2. Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets. 3. After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price within the Weekly Demand and approaching a 4H/Daily demand zone. With the INT Structure Pullback Phase initiated after the Bullish CHoCH, Price is ranging within the Fractal High/Low. No clear direction and price is ranging between Weak Supply / Demand but expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H INT and Swing Pullback Phases. 4. 4H Supply zone for possible reactions. But note that it's not well positioned within the 4H Swing (In Discount) so there is a probability that it will get run till the Swing EQ/Daily Supply zone. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Swing Continuation Phase 2. Price is ranging within the Bullish 15m Swing with INT structure is shifting between Bullish/Bearish. This is clear that we have a complex INT Structure which shows uncertainty of clear direction. 3. With the current INT Structure is Bullish, Expectations is set to continue Bullish and run the Weak INT High to target the Weak Swing High as long the INT Strong Low holds.
by Amr-Sadek
1