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Supply and Demand

UPDATE SWING TRADE SETUP EURUSDThe two major news events have come and gone and the long setup on EU is not only still valid but we have gotten confirmation with a bullish choch I'm looking for price to react bullish on the lower timeframe from the fair value gap or the 2H OB. This is to get the best possible entry with a relatively smaller SL. There is always a chance that the setup won't work out however in my opinion this has a small chance of failing. Main target is the daily high and a longer term target is December's high unless price action changes bearish. Hope this analysis helps and remember to always follow your rules and keep good risk management
Long
by Keyserfx
MKR ANALYSIS (2D)Before anything, pay attention to the timeframe. This is a 2-day timeframe, so it will take time. From the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart, it seems that MKR's correction has begun. It now appears to be in wave C. Buy/long positions can be considered in the green zone. The target could be the red box. A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
2
DOT/USDT | 4-Hour Rejection SetupThis DOT/USDT 4-hour chart highlights a potential short setup at a key supply zone: Entry: $6.373, anticipating rejection from the order block (OB) zone. Stop-Loss: Placed at $6.556, above the OB zone for risk mitigation. Take-Profit: Targeting the $6.006 level for potential gains. This setup aligns with the previous supply zone, making it a strong resistance area. Confirmation from volume and candlestick patterns is recommended before entering.
Short
by cRyPt0N008
TRX/USDT | 4-Hour Rejection SetupThis TRX/USDT 4-hour chart highlights a potential short setup at a key supply zone and trendline resistance: Entry: $0.25149, anticipating rejection from the descending trendline and order block (OB) zone. Stop-Loss: Placed at $0.25430, above the OB zone for risk mitigation. Take-Profit: Targeting the $0.24306 level for potential gains. The confluence of the OB zone and trendline resistance increases the probability of a price reversal, making this a well-structured trade. Confirmation from volume and candlestick patterns is recommended before entering.
Short
by cRyPt0N008
Oilseed Volatility: Global Production and Trade AdjustmentsThe global oilseed market is experiencing significant volatility driven by changes in production levels and trade dynamics. There has been a decline in global oilseed production, including soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. This article analyzes these shifts in production and their profound impact on vegetable oil and meal markets. Decline in Global Oilseed Production Global oilseed production for the 2024/25 marketing year is forecast to decrease slightly compared to previous estimates. The WASDE report indicates that the world oilseed production outlook is revised downwards by 0.3 million tons to 551.9 million metric tons this month. This reduction is primarily due to lower rapeseed production in India, Russia, and Uruguay, as well as decreased soybean and sunflower seed outputs in Russia and China. Soybean Production CBOT:ZS1! Soybean production in the U.S. is estimated at 4.4 billion bushels, down 95 million bushels from earlier projections. Significant reductions in soybean output were observed in states such as Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio. Lower yields and reduced harvested areas are contributing factors to this decline. Rapeseed and Sunflower Seed Production ZCE:OI1! BET:NAPR1! In addition to soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower seed production have also faced challenges. For instance, European Union countries like Germany and France have reported lower rapeseed yields due to unfavorable weather conditions Similarly, sunflower seed production in Ukraine and Russia has been affected by geopolitical tensions and logistical disruptions Impact on Vegetable Oil Markets The decline in global oilseed production has direct implications for the vegetable oil market. Soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower oil are critical components of the global edible oil supply chain. Soybean Oil The USDA projects that soybean oil used for biofuels will be around 13.6 billion pounds for the 2024/25 marketing year. However, with lower soybean production, there is increased pressure on available supplies for both food and industrial uses. This scarcity could lead to higher prices, impacting sectors reliant on soybean oil, such as the food processing industry and biodiesel producers. Rapeseed Oil: Lower rapeseed production has led to a tightening of rapeseed oil supplies. Countries heavily dependent on rapeseed oil imports, such as the European Union, may face increased costs and potential shortages. The European Union's reliance on imported rapeseed oil from Canada and Australia has become more crucial, but even these sources are experiencing some declines in production. Sunflower Oil: Sunflower seed production cuts in Ukraine and Russia have further exacerbated the situation in the sunflower oil market. These two countries traditionally account for a significant portion of global sunflower oil exports. With reduced availability, alternative oils like palm oil are becoming more prominent, although they come with their own set of environmental concerns. Impact on Meal Markets Oilseed meals, particularly soybean meal, play a vital role in the animal feed industry. The reduction in global oilseed production has cascading effects on the availability and pricing of these meals. Soybean Meal Global soybean crush is projected to increase by 1.9 million tons to 349.3 million metric tons for the 2024/25 crop year. Despite this increase, the overall lower soybean production means tighter supplies. Brazil’s strong first-quarter soybean meal exports, especially to Asian markets, have contributed to this rise. However, the upward trend in soybean meal prices is evident, with forecasts indicating an increase to $310 per short ton. Rapeseed Meal: Similar to soybean meal, rapeseed meal is also witnessing price pressures. Reduced rapeseed production in key regions like Europe has led to higher prices for rapeseed meal, affecting livestock and poultry industries. Farmers may need to seek alternative protein sources or adjust feeding strategies to manage costs. Sunflower Meal: With the decline in sunflower seed production, sunflower meal supplies have also tightened. Ukraine and Russia's reduced contributions to the global sunflower meal market have forced import-dependent countries to diversify their sourcing strategies. This shift has led to increased competition and higher prices for sunflower meal. Trade Dynamics and Market Adjustments The decline in global oilseed production has prompted several trade adjustments: Export Shifts: Countries like Brazil and Argentina are stepping up their soybean exports to fill the gaps left by the U.S. and other major producers. Brazil's soybean crush is expected to reach 56.947 million metric tons, driven by robust demand for soybean meal and oil. Meanwhile, sunflower oil exporters like Turkey are exploring new markets to compensate for the loss of Ukrainian and Russian supplies. Import Diversification: Key importers such as China are diversifying their sources to mitigate the impact of reduced supplies from traditional partners. China's soybean imports remain strong, but there are signs of increased reliance on Brazilian supplies. Additionally, European countries are turning to alternative suppliers for rapeseed oil, such as Australia and Canada, to meet their domestic needs. Logistical Challenges: Geopolitical tensions and logistical issues continue to pose challenges for the oilseed trade. Port congestion and shipping costs have risen, complicating the movement of oilseeds and their derivatives. For example, sunflower seed oil exports from Ukraine have faced delays due to ongoing conflicts, impacting global supply chains. Price Trends and Market Outlook The combination of lower production and disrupted trade flows is exerting upward pressure on oilseed and related product prices. Vegetable Oils: Prices for vegetable oils, including soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower oil, are expected to rise. Soybean oil prices are forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound, but given the tight supply scenario, future increases are likely. Rapeseed and sunflower oil prices have already seen hikes, reflecting the scarcity in the market. Oilseed Meals: Similarly, oilseed meal prices are on an upward trajectory. Soybean meal prices are projected to increase by $10 to $310 per short ton, reflecting the higher demand and constrained supply. Livestock farmers and poultry producers will need to adapt to these rising costs, potentially leading to higher meat prices in the coming months. Conclusion The decline in global oilseed production, encompassing soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds, has introduced significant volatility into the oilseed market. This downturn affects not only the supply of oilseed-derived products like vegetable oils and meals but also influences broader agricultural and food industries. As countries and companies navigate these challenges, diversification of sourcing and adaptation of production methods will be crucial for maintaining stability in the market. Investors and stakeholders should closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions and anticipate potential risks and opportunities in the evolving landscape of the oilseed sector.
ECONOMICS:WWOPI
by juliakhandoshko
ETH/USDT | 4-Hour Rejection SetupThis ETH/USDT 4-hour chart highlights a potential short setup at a key supply zone and trendline resistance: Entry: $3,308.15, anticipating rejection from the descending trendline and order block (OB) zone. Stop-Loss: Placed at $3,370.88, above the OB zone for risk mitigation. Take-Profit: Targeting the $3,147.00 level for potential gains. The confluence of the OB zone and trendline resistance increases the probability of a price reversal, making this a well-structured trade. Confirmation from volume and candlestick patterns is recommended before entering.
Short
by cRyPt0N008
2
Nasdaq Futures: Key Trading Zones and High-Probability SetupsWelcome to today’s Nasdaq futures analysis for Thursday, January 30, 2025! 📊 After a crucial FOMC meeting and recent market reactions, we focus on the most relevant price zones and trading setups for the day. 📈 Long Opportunities: Entries near 21,640–21,670, targeting 21,710 and 21,860. Additional setups if price holds the 21,550–21,580 zone, with a potential move toward 21,710. 📉 Short Setups: Key rejection levels at 21,710, aiming for 21,580 and 21,400. If price breaks below 21,550, watch for downside continuation toward 21,400 and 21,160. 📊 Market Insights: Today’s session could present both bullish and bearish opportunities, depending on liquidity grabs and reactions at key levels. We analyze the best scenarios for trading with clear risk management strategies. 💬 Join our daily lives at 9:30 AM (NY time) for real-time market analysis and Q&A. Let us know in the comments what other assets you’d like us to analyze or if you’re interested in swing trading strategies! 🔗 Subscribe now for expert trading insights, daily updates, and actionable strategies. Let’s trade smart today!
CME_MINI:MNQH2025Short
by BinvestorsTrading
GOLD ANALYSIShi guys If you look carefully, there is a liquidity line right next to our OB, which means that the price is MOST likely (90%) to react to the area. Considering that the general structure of the market is bullish,A bearish position is high risk, that's why I am waiting for the confirmation of the fall, which in fact is a CHOH that i show in chart. this is just a analyse and The final decision of the position is yours and find entry points according to your own strategy
OANDA:XAUUSD
by hoseinrafiee
1
XAUUSD - Gold after the Fed meeting!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for buying opportunities after a price correction. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio. During its meeting last night, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady within the 4.25% to 4.5% range, signaling that it has no immediate plans to lower them. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, emphasized that the U.S. economy continues to experience strong growth, with a resilient labor market. According to him, current interest rates are no longer as restrictive to economic activity as they once were. He stated that the central bank prefers to see more concrete evidence of sustained inflation reduction before making any adjustments, while also assessing the economic impact of Donald Trump’s policies in areas such as tariffs, immigration, and taxation. In its statement, the Federal Reserve acknowledged that inflation remains “somewhat high,” but it omitted previous references to progress toward the 2% target. Powell clarified that this change does not signal a shift in policy but rather reflects the need for greater confidence in the persistence of inflation’s downward trend. The Fed Chair also stressed that the central bank cannot accurately predict the impact of Trump’s new policies before they are implemented. He noted that potential tariffs and immigration changes could have conflicting effects: they might contribute to inflation by raising costs, while also acting as a deflationary force by improving productivity. Powell made it clear that a rate cut in March 2025 is “unlikely,” and future decisions will depend entirely on economic data, particularly inflation and employment indicators. If Trump’s trade policies or labor shortages caused by the expulsion of migrants unexpectedly drive inflation higher, the Federal Reserve may not only delay rate cuts but could even consider raising rates instead. In response to these remarks, Trump criticized Powell, accusing him of failing to control inflation. The U.S. President stated on Truth Social that his administration would curb inflation by ramping up domestic energy production, reducing regulations, balancing international trade, and revitalizing American manufacturing. Meanwhile, Powell told reporters that he has not been in contact with Trump recently and would not respond to criticisms from the White House. Trump also accused the Federal Reserve of focusing on issues like climate change, diversity, equity, and gender ideology instead of prioritizing economic matters. David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, believes that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates within a narrow range throughout 2025 unless there is a significant shift in inflation. He highlighted that rising costs in the services and food sectors remain key economic challenges, which will likely limit any major policy changes in the near term.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Spain35 Bounces of Support: Continuation Toward 12,356?FX:ESP35 is respecting an ascending trendline, signaling strong bullish momentum. The price has recently rebounded from the trendline, maintaining the overall structure of higher highs and higher lows, which aligns with the trend continuation narrative. I anticipate that if the index sustains its upward trajectory, it could move toward the 12,356 level. However, a break below the ascending trendline would invalidate this bullish setup and indicate potential downside. Feel free to share your perspective or any insights in the comments!
FX:ESP35Long
by DanieIM
ZINC at Key Support Zone: Bullish Rebound ExpectedEIGHTCAP:XZNUSD has reached a significant demand zone, marked by historically strong support and high buying interest. The current market structure suggests the potential for a bullish rebound from this area. If the price confirms a rejection from the support zone, I anticipate an upward move toward the 2,850 level. This scenario would signal a short-term trend reversal or a corrective move. However, a clear break below the support zone would invalidate this setup and indicate potential continuation of the bearish momentum. Let me know your thoughts or if you have a different perspective!
EIGHTCAP:XZNUSDLong
by DanieIM
EURGBP - Bearish Setup at Key ResistanceThe EURGBP pair is approaching a notable supply zone, where sellers have previously regained control and driven prices lower. This area has historically acted as resistance, suggesting the potential for bearish continuation. A confirmation of selling pressure, such as a bearish engulfing pattern or multiple rejection wicks at the resistance level, would increase the likelihood of a downward move. If the selling momentum materializes, the price could target the 0.83586 level. What are your thoughts on this outlook?
Short
by TrendDiva
Copper - Markets are waiting for new moves to start?!Copper is above EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. An upward correction of copper will provide us with a good risk-reward selling position. If the downtrend continues, we can buy copper in the next demand zone. The Monthly Metals Index (MMI) for copper remained largely range-bound, experiencing a slight decline of 0.65% from December to January. Meanwhile, copper prices continue to react to the new U.S. administration and potential shifts in trade policies. Ahead of President Trump’s inauguration, copper prices on the Comex exchange began breaking out of their previous range. By mid-January, copper prices had reached their highest levels since early November. This movement was likely driven by traders anticipating the impact of potential tariffs, some of which could affect the copper market. In contrast, prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw only modest gains, creating a temporary price divergence between the two exchanges. Typically, Comex and LME copper prices move in tandem, making any significant deviations between them noteworthy. Since 2019, the two markets have shown a correlation of 99.76%, with Comex prices averaging a $19 per ton premium over LME prices. However, by January 14, this premium had widened to $402 per ton. It remains uncertain whether this premium will persist in the coming years or revert to historical levels, as seen in previous instances. Historically, such price divergences have been temporary. One notable example was a short squeeze on Comex in late May, which marked the end of the Q2 2024 rally in base metals. During this period, the price gap between LME and Comex surged to $688 per ton, with Comex copper prices reaching a record high of $11,257 per ton. However, this spread quickly narrowed due to shifts in trade flows toward the U.S. market. Although Comex copper contracts attract similar market participation as LME, lower inventory levels make them less liquid. Consequently, when stockpiles decrease, Comex prices become particularly susceptible to sudden surges. Another factor contributing to price divergence was the October port strike, which led to a significant increase in Comex prices. Before the three-day strike began, Comex copper prices had already risen sharply, pushing the spread to $292 per ton until mediators brokered a resolution. Market volatility remains a key risk for copper prices as traders await more details on which products and countries will be affected by new trade barriers. This uncertainty could either drive further price increases or trigger sharp declines if reality fails to align with market expectations. Some of the tariffs proposed by President Trump are likely to serve as negotiation tactics, meaning they may not be fully implemented or could be abandoned if alternative trade agreements are reached. Meanwhile, reports suggest that the Trump administration is considering a phased approach to tariff implementation, which may help mitigate market reactions. A closer look at Trump’s latest stance on China indicates a willingness to de-escalate tensions and increase engagement. However, his previous trade policies were highly aggressive, often involving heavy tariffs on Chinese imports.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERShort
by Ali_PSND