Get started

Supplyandemandzones

Surrender Bears! Accumulation above 26,747 ? 📽️Timeframes are closing above Weekly Zone 26,770. Unless during the next 22 hours we see a 1.22% dump below our weekly level , I'm Looking up from here. Price has returned into our range from the second half of May between Daily Zone 27,400$ and 26,747$ Weekly Zone. Price printed a solid Bull candle rejecting our Weekly level which was anticipated. Price consolidated and dropped slightly during yesterday's daily candle. We haven't started dumping and price has been consolidating along the Highs of our Daily range from the Second half of Month May. The Highs during the Second half of May being 27,400$. As the New week begins I am looking for an Increase in Bitcoin as the debt ceiling controversy ends and the Summer begins. 29,246 Weekly Level is our target for the 1st half of June. Safe Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ShrewdCatfx
⚖️ Auction Market Theory📍Auction Market Theory, developed by J. Peter Steidlmayer and expanded upon by Jim Dalton in his book Mind Over Markets, explains how financial markets function as auctions where buyers and sellers interact. The theory focuses on two main objectives: facilitating trade through a two-way auction process and determining the fair value of assets. Supply and demand dynamics and price discovery play a crucial role in this process. Auction Market Theory is represented using tools like Market or Volume Profile, which utilize bell-shaped curves to identify the value area, representing 68% or 1 standard deviation from the mean. 🔷 In a balanced market , buyers and sellers agree on prices based on their perception of fair value. This leads to lower volatility and prices that remain relatively stable, resulting in a ranging market. The fair value can be recognized using the Market or Volume profile, which appears as a Gaussian bell-shaped curve. However, financial markets rarely stay in balance indefinitely. New information, whether fundamental or technical, causes markets to move away from fair value and transition into a different environment. 🔷 Imbalance refers to the opposite of balance, where there is a disagreement about fair value. In this scenario, one side of market participants becomes more aggressive, leading to a trending market. Typically, markets tend to trend only about 20% of the time and range about 80% of the time. When the market is within the value range, it is more likely to remain in balance and explore within that range. However, in the case of an imbalance, the market often drifts higher or lower until it reaches a stop, typically within a previous value area. 💥Key Takeaways: 🔸 Auction Market Theory explains how financial markets function as auctions, focusing on facilitating trade and determining fair value. 🔸 Supply and demand dynamics and price discovery are essential in the Auction Market Theory process. 🔸 Tools like Market or Volume Profile use bell-shaped curves to identify the value area, representing 68% or 1 standard deviation from the mean. 🔸 In a balanced market, buyers and sellers agree on prices based on their perception of fair value, leading to lower volatility and a ranging market. 🔸 Financial markets rarely stay in balance indefinitely, as new information causes them to move away from fair value and transition into different environments. 🔸 Imbalance occurs when there is disagreement about fair value, leading to a trending market. 🔸 Markets tend to trend about 20% of the time and range about 80% of the time. 🔸 When the market is within the value range, it is likely to remain in balance and explore within that range. 🔸 Imbalanced markets often drift higher or lower until they reach a stop, usually within a previous value area. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
GBPAUD I Approaching supply zone where it may fallWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** GBPAUD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
4
S&P500 - WEEKLY PREVIEW | KW03 |In today's article, we will look at the *S&P500* and its relevant markers for the coming week. > KW 03 = 16.01. - 20.01. > The marks should serve you as orientation for your own analysis. > The "VIOLET" marked ZONES are TARGET RANGES - for possible trades. ! NOTE ! If financial events take place, there is a high probability that through market maker manipulation, the given marks are not respected . > Every Monday, I therefore upload a FX event overview, the respective week, which gives you an insight of the "turbulent" days and times. The cover picture shows an example of a possible trade . > This is one of many possible setups and is not alone in the room. ASSESSMENT This week, the S&P500 will, with great probability, come up against a strong resistance. As can be seen quite nicely from the daily perspective, a downtrend line resistance area is coming towards it. (Red lines + Red colored area). > In addition, important Fibonacci levels and a 4-hour SUPPLY zone are untouched, which for a further upswing, must first be overcome. > My target range for the upward movement is - 4,040 - 4,060 points - in this zone, strong resistance should be expected at the latest. > Of course, this forecast must be supported by the USD (DXY), which would be the driver for a possible sell-off in the S&P500. POSSIBLE MARKET SCENARIOS > THESIS 1: On Monday, we directly see a strong USD = S&P500 immediately sells off. > THESIS 2: On Monday, we continue to see a weakening USD = S&P500 will run into my "target range" and then bounce back. > THESIS 3: On Monday, we see by the new data of W2, another down sell in USD = S&P500 will run into my "target area", conquer it and run up to further spheres. OUTZOOMED "4 HOURS + DAY - INTERVAL" "1 HOUR + 4 HOUR - INTERVAL" ZOOMED IN "4 HOURS + DAY - INTERVAL" "1 HOUR + 4 HOUR - INTERVAL" POSSIBLE SCENARIES „4 HOUR – INTERVAL“ > Let's share our perspectives and views in the comments. > Sharing your point of view allows each of us to improve. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review. Thank you and happy trading! ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
EUR/CHF - LONG - ANALYSIS + EXPLANATIONThe "EUR/CHF" has been in a downtrend since March – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a trend reversal if necessary. > The EUR is the base currency of the pair and has suffered greatly from the USD (DXY) appreciation. > The CHF is generally seen as a security, which is why the EUR is losing out to them. --> Once the USD (DXY) shows signs of corrective behavior, I personally expect a significant upswing. = What this upswing might look like, I'll let you know in the following lines. Table of contents - 1st part = CURRENT STATE - 2nd part = TARGET ZONE PROPERTIES - 3rd part = CONCLUSION PART ONE Since the end of July until today, a formation has formed, which is also known as the "Head&Shoulders - pattern". --> This is formed in the EUR/CHF "OVERCOME", which is usually ended with a "Bullish" breakout. --> The neckline (breakout line) of the pattern, is located at the resistance line (gold-spiked), which has formed since March / 2020. Thus, it can be concluded that if the pattern breaks out "successfully", we will also break the resistance line. After the break of this resistance line, the following sequence of events would be possible: 1. SHORT-TERM TARGET = 1.618 FIB -> 0.98977 2. TEST = of the broken resistance -> conversion into support 3. TARGET = TARGET ZONE 1 SECOND PART "TARGET ZONES" are drawn on the chart, all of which have "concentrated" resistance characteristics. 1. | TARGET ZONE | 0.99718 - 1.00000 | points RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS - "MSB" (Market Structure Break) | March/2022 LL. - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.328s | Created March/2021 - September/2022 - "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.00000 | Psychologically important resistance level - "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 8-long | Monthly chart - "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = Conversion line | Weekly chart + Baseline | Monthly chart - "VP" (Volume Profile) = GAP in the zone | Not much volume traded = little resistance. 2. | TARGET ZONE | 1.00879 - 1.01526 | points RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS - "MSB" (market structure break) | HL of April/2022 - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.618s + 0.65s | Created = May/2022 - September/2022 - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 1.618s | Originated = 02/09/2022 - 26/09/2022 - "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.01000 | Psychologically important resistance - "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 50-length | weekly chart + 200-length | daily chart - "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = no resistance in the HTF (Higher time frame) time levels T / W / M - "VP" (Volume Profile) = small volume | not much past traded volume = little resistance to the upside . 3. | TARGET ZONE | 1.02391 - 1.02791 | points RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS - "RESISTANCE LINE" | Created September/2021 (4x touches). - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.75s + 0.786s | Created = May/2022 - September/2022 - "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.02500 | Psychologically important resistance level - "SUPPLY ZONE" = | Monthly chart - "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = Cloud resistance | Weekly chart + Conversion line | Monthly chart - "VP" (Volume Profile) = Strong Volume | Much Past Traded Volume = Major Resistance. X. | POI ZONE | 1.03736 - 1.03936 | Points RESISTANCE - CHARACTERISTICS - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.88s | Originated = May/2022 - September/2022 - "POI" (Point of interest) = 1,04000 | Psychologically important resistance - "SUPPLY ZONES" = | Daily + Weekly chart - "VP" (Volume Profile) = Strongest volume | Highest past traded volume concentration = Very large resistance. - "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 50-length | monthly chart. - "ICHIMOKU CLOUD" = no resistance in HTF (Higher time frame) time levels T / W / M 4th | TARGET ZONE | 1.04839 - 1.05398 | points RESISTANCE PROPERTIES - "FIB" (Fibonacci) = 0.618s + 0.65s | Created March/2021 - September/2022 - "POI" (Point of interest) = 1.05000 | Psychologically important resistance level - "MA" (Simple Moving Average) = 100-length | weekly chart + 50-length | monthly chart - SUPPLY ZONES" = daily + weekly + monthly chart - "VP" (Volume Profile) = GAP in the zone | Not much past traded volume = little resistance to the upside. CONCLUSION You now know what the scenario for "EUR/CHF" could look like. The following conditions must be met: - DXY (USD) starts to CORRECT = pressure way fall for the EUR -> EUR more dominant than CHF - BREAKOUT of the H&S pattern -> OVERCOME the resistance line + successful back-test = transformation into a support line. - DEVELOPMENT of the individual ZONES and their relevant resistance properties. PS: + I have once taken the liberty to draw a possible "course", so you can see how it could run. + Many of the indicators described are not visible in the chart, so that a clear view remains. -> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of it. Thank you and happy trading! For anyone who would still enjoy the other HTF and want to hide all the "noise" - following the weekly and monthly chart.
Long
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
5/25: Market Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanSPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ESM2023 & SPY ETF - Market Update - 5/25/23 Today's Recap This week has been a mirror image of last week, with the ES building a smaller triangle and breaking down, triggering a nearly 100-point sell. Although this seems dramatic, similar dips have occurred in the past month and have been bought. The question now is whether this dip will also be bought. Debt Ceiling Crisis The current market environment is complex and headline-driven, with the debt ceiling debate making the next few days of trading potentially difficult. Traders need to be flexible and prepared to react to price movements, rather than trying to predict or forecast the market. Bond Yield Rates Bond yields have been fluctuating due to the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling crisis. This has led to increased volatility in the market, making it more challenging for traders to navigate. Key Structures The latest rally of this bull leg started because we broke out a triangle structure shown in blue below. It is currently at 4123-4116 and represents an important back-test, which we managed to defend. The yellow rising channel connecting the May lows. This broke down yesterday. As always, when price breaks down any sort of significant level that level needs to be recovered in order to “end” the immediate move (down). Currently, this is 4165-75 and I would say a “bottom is in” when that is recovered. While this is very far away - note the lowest white trendline. This connects the October low with the March low and is currently 3980. I consider this the driving trendline controlling the multi-month bull market we are currently in. We remain in a clear uptrend by every definable measure. The Flat Bottom You can see the flat bottom pattern failed to hold and triggered the sell-off at 4190. The Yellow Uptrend Channel The yellow uptrend channel, which connects the May lows, broke down yesterday. In order to end the immediate move down, the level of 4165-75 needs to be recovered. Supports and resistances are listed, and I discuss potential bids and trade scenarios for both bull and bear cases. In summary, 4195-4220 is chop, and there is a heavy headline risk due to the debt ceiling. Bulls control above the structure Bears control below the structure The back-test level is now 4140-42. Support Levels The bull case would look something like yesterday lows continue holding, and from there we push up the levels to 4147, 4156, then 4166-75 where ES can try another sell. 4123, 4116 (major), 4100-05 (major), 4087, 4075 (major), 4061, 4053 (major), 4040, 4020-25 (major), 4013, 4000 (major), 3977-83 (major). Resistance Levels Starts on the failure of yesterday’s low. Ideally, one more bounce attempt at 4116-23 before trying a short. After this bounce though, consider a short 4115 or so for a move to 4100-05 where gains should be locked in. 4135 (major), 4147, 4157, 4166 (major), 4175 (major), 4191-95 (major), 4204 (major), 4212, 4221 (major), 4235, 4242-45 (major), 4253, 4259, 4270-75 (major). Trading Plan If buying big red candles, these are “knife catch trades”. Size them down. 4123-4116 is major support still, one could bid it direct again or wait for a decisive failed breakdown. In terms of spots to try knife catches, 4100-05 and 4075 would be possible regions. Wrap Up In conclusion, the market is currently in a complex and headline-driven environment due to the debt ceiling crisis. Traders need to be flexible and prepared to react to price movements, rather than trying to predict or forecast the market. Keep an eye on key structures, support and resistance levels, and have a solid trading plan in place to navigate the market successfully. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Riding the Bull: Are We Set to Rally Higher?SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES CME_MINI:ESM2023 & AMEX:SPY ETF - Evening Market Update - 10/18/23 Today's Recap We saw a remarkable movement in ES over the past week. It was technical analysis at its finest: a 10-day tight range was followed by a breakout, just as the underlying trend suggested. As per historical trends, these range breakouts can lead to sustained rallies. Key Structures Several key structures have emerged that are worth watching: The Week-Long Triangle Structure: This structure triggered the recent breakout. The market dynamics can be summarized as follows: bulls control above it, and bears control below it. The back-test level is now 4140-42. The Purple Uptrend Channel: This structure, connecting the May 4th low and this week's low, is a crucial support area at around 4140-42. Bulls will want to hold this structure. The Blue and White Broadening Formation: This structure has been a focus in our discussions. The white broadening formation resistance, at around 4197, was the target for weeks, and it broke out late today. Support Levels As long as 4147 holds, we continue our upward trajectory. The 4140-42 area, derived from the triangle structure and the purple uptrend channel, is an obvious structure bulls want to hold. 4197, the previous resistance, has now turned into a support level. 4197-95 (major), 4182-85 (major), 4175, 4168, 4156 (major), 4140-42 (major - backtests the triangle breakout), 4135, 4126 (major - triangle support), 4114, 4106, 4092-95 (major - broadening formation support). Resistance Levels Initial resistance was at 4192, acting as a magnet, as previously identified. According to the blue broadening formation, the next major resistance level is now at 4242. 4212, 4221 (major), 4235, 4243 (major), 4249, 4263 (major), 4270-72, 4277 (major), 4296, 4306 (major). Trading Plan for Tomorrow The plan for tomorrow is straightforward: If the market remains above the key structures (4140-42), we should anticipate a continued upward trend toward the resistance at 4242. However, if the market dips below these structures, it could signal a shift in control to bears. Wrap Up Stay patient and adhere to your trading plan. Follow the key structures, resistance, and support levels closely. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Bulls Maintain Control as Market Holds Near Breakout LevelsThe market closed higher today. The move higher was driven by a number of factors, including stronger economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in June. However, the looking debt deadline is not in the review mirror yet. Key Points The market broke out from the tightest range seen since April 2017. The next level of resistance for ES_F is at 4175. If ES_F can break above this level, it could open the door to further gains towards 4200. The next major economic event for ES_F is the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 13-14. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates. Bull Case As long as the 4155-47 breakout back-test area holds, bulls are in control. If it fails, bulls will want to recover quickly from 4135 support. Generally though, as long as that backtest holds, bulls are in control and we likely chop, bull flag, then continue to push to 4195 megaphone resistance. Possible pullback there then on to break the May highs. In terms of spots to add on strength, I will be watching for bull flag formation. We have the flag pole with todays rally, and the flagging would occur under 4178-80 and above 4166. If this flag can develop overnight, I may consider buying it in the morning. Bear Case Several levels need to fail for there to be any short-able bear case. The first warning, though is the 4147 breakout back-test. 4125 support needs to crack. However, a breakout short, perhaps 4122, to work down the levels to 4100 and lower. Final Thoughts The market is in a bullish trend, but it is important to be aware of the risks. The market could pull back in the coming days, especially if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, and it is important to be prepared for this possibility. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
After-Market Analysis: Patience in Play Amid ES_F's Narrow RangeWe witnessed a choppy session today, mainly pinned at 4135. The market fluctuated between 4155-4130, indicating the possibility of a breakout pushing up the levels to megaphone resistance. The bearish case will start with the failure of 4131. Today's session was marked by a continued consolidation within a narrow range for ES_F. The market has been in a tight range for the past week, with closing prices consistently falling within 1% of the 4130 zone. This is one of the tightest consolidations we've seen in years, and it's a consequence of the May 4th/5th rally and the options expiry week. We saw the ES_F put in a notable 6 daily candles stacked tightly side-by-side in approximately a 60-point range, likely the tightest range since the March or January lows. This could potentially be a trap for newer traders who are always seeking the rare "big home run move". Instead, the market seems to be tactically playing between levels, resulting in failed breakdowns to trap chasers. Resistance Levels: 4127, 4135 (major), 4142, 4148, 4152 (major), 4166, 4173-75 (major), 4188-90 (megaphone resistance, major), 4197, 4205 (major), 4220 (major), 4232, 4240-42 (major - large broadening formation resistance), 4256, 4266, 4273-76 (major), 4282, 4290-92 (major), 4305 (major). Support Levels: 4118 (major), 4111, 4100-4105 (major - broadening formation support), 4079-83 (major), 4070, 4057, 4040-44 (major - broadening formation support), 4025, 4020 (major), 3999, 3990 (major), 3967-72, 3956 (major). Key Structures: The small white broadening formation with support at 4105 and resistance at 4187-90. The larger blue broadening formation pattern with support at 4040 and resistance around 4235. The purple rising channel structure with support around 4136-31. Bonds: On the bond front, the yield on the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries showed a marginal increase today. This could be a significant factor to watch for in the coming days. Trading Plan: In the evening hours, I opened a short trade here at 4133 resistance. For any long positions, a sustained break above 4133-35 will be needed to trigger the upside once again. A false break will trigger back to downside support. Final Thoughts: In summary, while the market's current state might be frustrating for those seeking the "big move," it's crucial to remain patient and tactical. The market's gyrations test our resilience and adaptability as traders. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
GBPUSD short setupHey traders! Ok so here is what I'm looking at going into London session today... GBPUSD reacted from origin supply on 15M. Confluence with 4H supply. I took a long trade into this zone yesterday, which hit TP pretty quickly (wish all trades were that easy haha). Here and now...looking for shorts after a pullback into premium of this bearish drive and the last buy-to-sell prior to the impulsive move. My only hesitation is the resting buy-side liquidity above the recent highs. I would really like to see this liquidity taken out and then take a trade on lower TFs (1-5M) after a Change of Character or Break of Structure. Target for my shorts is the bottom end of the 15M range at 1.24428. If we get there prior to a pullback into my point of interest, I will re-evaluate based on new structure. Happy trading!
by RonnyNilsson