Every hedge funds and their wife, dog, cats, kids are short bonds. Everyone is trapped in the narrative of the FED's rate hike. The bus of short 10 year treasury is full. Its time for a train derail. In a risk-off environment, do you think the FED will ever hike rates further? Adding another level of uncertainly is the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit...
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Long overdue. Waiting for neckline break then longing $TBT.
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Price continues to consolidate with the 5 year notes. On the daily chart we can see a large mother bar with 2 child bars. We are currently watching a 3rd bar form which looks like it may want to break out to the upside. If this happens it may be setting up for a very bearish pattern called an inside bar fake-out or false break-out. That is when you have an...
This idea supports the previous interest rate outlook. I advise you to book profits on the idea given last September (see related) earlier than set target at 116'07 and this is why: The long-term trend together with the previous low offers strong support for the price and could reject the drop in the 117-118 area. In this area the wave C = 1.272 of wave A and this...
Silver - still a good entry point as the last couple days, and moving up from the bottom of its range. There is a whole, whole lot going on in the silver (and gold) story, but that's another article. For now I'd like to point out some action on the SLV 's chart. Silver has been bouncing in a tight range for much of 2018. Buying in the low $15's and selling...
Hold tight for this ride, there's a variety of reasons why bond prices will stagnate or fall. Interest rates should rise and be higher than they are now; "should" certainly isn't a reason for something to happen, but there are scant monetary policy maneuverings available for the Fed to keep interest rates low and by extension, prop the stock market up much...
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AMEX:SPY S&P 500 is following a giant descending triangle, even though on 04.18.18 it has not touched the triangle. Overall the market is bearish short term , despite being in the earnings season. In a bullish market some neutral and positive earnings report would have been interpreted as bullish . Increasing treasury yields may be partly to blame. As...
Long term downtrend about to resume. On the TLT play, I see under 108 by Jan 2019 option expiration.
Potential Short bringing the Yields back down to 2.5% pricing in the next leg up.
This might be worth a shot as a hedge for equity holdings here. Risk 3 ATR down from here. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Good day folks, I think that the selloff today is now done. The RSI looks like to turn very bullish on the short-term. I'm buying a couple calls and will close when the target reach 120 or the support doesn't hold. Cheers,
If US 10 year breaches 3% resistance, Katy bar the door ! I believe this is a key technical level that may trigger a larger sell off in the bond markets. Remember that as the bonds sell off the yield ( interest rate ) rise's . As of right now the yield on a 30 year bond is @ 3.14% and a 10 year is @ 2.96% ! So if you were buying bonds why would you loan .gov the...
So Forkers - here's your Bond Trade I've mentioned in the free ForkTrading Group Weekly Outlook. Next Station, WL4. P!
Perhaps this is another dead-cat bounce? These custom support resistance indicator lines show decent places to enter or exit. The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter. If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long. If your instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting. For Stocks, I prefer to use the...
While the SP trendline is going down, TLT trendline is going up. A weak stab at making a 3-day test of the low, holding the rising trendline, bonds will continue to surprise and continue higher.