TIPS
Stay alert. a few important suggestionsAMEX:SPY
For a few days now I have been posting about a big drop that I expect. today I am again confirmed about that idea. As I said in previous ideas, is that we fell through the neckline of a huge Head and Shoulders Pattern. a few days ago we rose back to the previous breakout point, yesterday we tested that level and the neckline now so to speak serves as resistance, that was confirmed today. In my opinion a drop from the neckline is not unusual, so watch out.
Here some important things to remember:
- Try to keep your cool, and keep thinking rationally.
- Make sure you have a protective Stop-Loss set up.
- Be careful about adding money to a losing position.
- Guessing a bottom is difficult, and can go very wrong.
- Keep your emotions under control, notice you're getting frustrated? Then maybe go find some distraction, but never leave your computer until you have set a stop-loss.
I can see myself that this is very standard advice, but I and many others have experienced what happens when your emotions take over. Hence, I share this anyway.
Please leave in the comments if you have another suggestion on how to manage your account in these volatile times.
I wish you all the best.
This is not financial advice.
Stay sharp in these volatile times!These are crazy times.
In 2020 I started to seriously dedicate myself to becoming a profitable trader. the past few months have been very volatile. and for me as a beginner it is also very difficult to earn even a little constant results. and maybe you recognize yourself in my situation, But I have learned a lot from all this chaos ;) , and therefore I have written down a few of my own experiences that hopefully will help you to get a little more consistent results. as I say, I am no expert and this is therefore certainly not financial advice. but especially in these times I think it is nice to help each other a little and learn from each other's mistakes.
1. It's okay to not have open positions from time to time. Occasionally it can be frustrating, if you take a loss, but that's okay, hopefully you learned something from it. I now consider the current (short-term) trend to be neutral/Bearish. and I am now reading Technical Analysis of the financial markets and in that book there was a sentence that I did find reassuring: "It is during these periods of sideways market movement that technical traders experience their greatest frustration, and systems traders their greatest equity losses". Take these times to prepare yourself for a more predictable market phase.
2. Trying to predict a bottom can be dangerous. Try to wait for confirmation, or a known pattern. Take LUNA/USD as an example, luckily I didn’t had any money in this coin. But you don't want to get stuck in a long position, don't forget to set a stop loss either, and the last point actually ties into point 2
3. A well-known rule is that you should not add to a losing position. I thought I had remembered this but I did catch myself doing it at the beginning, especially in times like this it can be disastrous, usually it doesn't end well.
I wish everyone the best coming times, hopefully most will achieve their goals. Keep thinking rationally and try to keep your emotions under control. I wish you all the best.
Let me hear from you in the comments, I am very curious about your experience in this market.
Perhaps you have a suggestion for me, I would be very happy with that.
AMEX:SPY
An inversed relationship There is a long running inverse relationship between gold and yields. As a non-interest bearing asset, gold becomes less attractive when yields, or real yields in-particular, go up.
Using the TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) and inverting the price (price and yields are inversely related), we get a proxy for real-yields. With this, we can look at the 10-year chart of gold prices vs yields and the inverse relationship becomes clear now-- rising real yields push gold prices down!
As gold is quoted in US dollar, the strengthening dollar has added salt to the wound, further weakening the price of gold.
On a shorter timeframe, the 1875 handle seems to be of a significant level, providing the previous levels of support and resistance.
With this support level breached last week and a retest this week, coupled with the rising yields and a strong US dollar, we see further downside for gold from here.
Entry at 1875, stop above 1960. Targets are 1762 and 1680.
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Why do traders mostly lose? Point of viewFor 3-5 minutes while going through this forget what you know about trading.
First thing is : Let's remember our goal, every successful action/plan started with a clear goal that led the way:
In our case it's profit
When starting to trade seeing the numbers go up and down plays with your head and emotion quickly tempting you with the unlimited potential at your fingertips.
Even experienced traders that had some lucky streaks forget that the wanted end result is simple - to be in the money, meaning, making profits consistently.
In order to secure our goal of making profit we need to first start with remembering this is not a 'get rich quick' scheme and there is no magic - A big bunch of money won't fall on your head out of nowhere, at least not consistently.
Now - remember this : It's a lot better to be consistently profitable than to have a series of a few winning streaks .
With this in mind, it's great if you would put up a sticky note on your screen reminding this - As at times it gets hard keeping sight when numbers run wild.
I see many traders look at between 5-10 crypto currencies, 3 commodities and 10 currency pairs - Deciding based on a variety of different things what to trade on every time.
This way of action has no structure at all - Which makes it very hard to reach a certain target: profit.
It is necessary to have focus, structure and a plan with a single minded mission: PROFIT.
But not just any profit - smart profit, a profit that was a result of planned action.
So how do you make a plan?
The easiest way to effectively craft a well thought out plan is to focus on between 2 to max 3 instruments
Learning the range, price action and tendencies of 2-3 instruments can be done within a few weeks going through 1h, 4h and weekly time-frames and determining the short-term and long-term projections of each of the 2-3 instruments.
Once you start seeing the patterns and understanding the price action continue by implementing what you learned on the instruments on a demo account testing a possible strategy that relies on clear idea of what to do with every possible scenario.
You may not get it right with the first strategy, so try others until you find one that shows consistent results - while mastering the 2-3 instruments you have chosen and continuing to following up on a daily basis on relevant news, changes in trends on short-term and long-term projections.
For me - Because I've dedicated years trading and following Gold and WTI , learning how and why it moves - I prefer trading a swing trading strategy, keeping trades open between 3 days to 2 weeks usually, this puts my bigger picture understanding of the instruments into true effect
The difficulties you will find while searching for your strategy are -
*Greed
*Fear
*Lack of patience
*Lack of discipline in plan
Don't let them in - Remember your plan and one and only goal : consistent profit!
Thank you for reading,
Let me know what you think and what you would like to hear more about :D
Why Less Trading Gives Better Results!Hey hey traders!
We're coming to you with a nice and short video on why trading less is actually better for you, atleast based on our experience!
Being a full time day trader I found it hard to actually be at my best and trade all day long... at the end of the day trading is a means to an end, its only purpose is for you to exchange your knowledge, effort and focus for money, yet you do not need to sit there all day to do that, 60mins of focus is better than a whole day of nothing.
Try what we preach for the rest of the week and you'll be amazed at your performance!
Good luck trading!
Price action & key levels [Daily Primer 25.4/22]Hey Traders, a quick little video coming your way!
It is my 8 year anniversary with my wife, so I am rushing out of the door and cannot leave a detailed summary in text too.
The video goes over price action, key levels and some trades taken today on the DAX
Have a fab day and any questions are welcome!
Leading Indicators Reversal Still BearishThe JNK ETF looks like it is heading further down still -> Bearish for equities.
The IWM ETF is likely to follow through after closing at a low -> Bearish for equities
The DJT ETF looks a tad bearish too -> Bearish for equities
The VALUG looking to fail support, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities
The TIPS ETF continue down draft-> Bearish for equities
The TLT ETF is still diving -> still not seeing any flight to safety.
The VIX just broke out above the trendline -> very Bearish for equities
The HG1! copper futures downtrending
Overall, rather Bearish bias on equities
Leading indicators are BearishVery quickly before the market opens...
The JNK ETF is heading further down for lower low -> Bearish for equities.
The IWM ETF is likely to follow down continuing the candle -> Bearish for equities
The DJT ETF broke support -> Bearish for equities
The VALUG failed the resistance, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities
The TIPS ETF gave up and gave way -> Bearish for equities
The TLT ETF is looking for a non-existent bottom -> no flight to safety. just gave way, period.
The VIX just broke out and checked in at the support... spiking up soon?
The HG1! copper futures stalled at resistance.
Overall, Bearish bias on equities
BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS FOR 05 APRIL 2022SUPPORT
38424
38224
38000
RESISTANCE
38933
39254
39515
EXPECTED RANGE 39000 - 39500
Tomorrow we can see a gap up of 300 - 400 points in #BANKNIFTY, if the price sustain above 39000 for 30 mins then we can see a movements upto 39500 either on Tuesday or Wednesday.
We can sell Banknifty if see a strong Resistance between 39400 - 39500 range and price break support at 39254.
#BANKNIFTYOPTIONS TO WATCH
38000 CE 07 APRIL
38500 PE 07 APRIL
Being a weekend trading warriorYour results on Monday will be influenced by the work that you do on the weekend, specifically Sunday.
As an intraday trader I constantly think about my trading.
Here are a few points which every trader should focus on,
1 - Mapping our mental weaknesses
We all have mental challenges, some of us have a lot of FOMO,
while others oversize and over trade, you know what is holding
you back as a trader... FIND IT AND WORK ON IT!
2 - Reviewing trades (winners & losers)
Search for the plays where you can add size,
search for patterns that you can exploit next week,
review your best trades. What trades worked best for you?
more of these on Monday. What trades are not working for you? Eliminate them.
3 - Checking for key levels & patterns
The best in every industry practice and train... yet probably 90% of traders never
really do any kind of practice, they search for a strategy and then cannot wait to apply
it to the markets... real traders work on their trading hence they create REAL SKILLS!
Leading Indicators messyWith the current global situation where there are day by day developments, the Leading Indicator panel offers similar dichotomy...
The JNK ETF is heading further down -> Bearish for equities.
The IWM ETF is likely to push down in a somewhat limited fashion -> Bearish for equities
The DJT ETF appears to be bouncing up -> Bullish for equities
The VALUG looking for more downside -> Bearish for equities
The TIPS ETF is spiking after a gap up, bullish for TIPS -> Inflation is exploding! Ususally bullish for equities, but in this instance, not likely.
The TLT ETF is bottom feeding, and there is a MACD bullish divergence -> this suggests that the fear is not yet great enough for a flight to safety. Not yet.
The VIX just broke out of a trend line and is pushing towards 45.
The HG1! copper futures suggest an anomalous accumulation of copper, maybe forerunning the equities market upwards, but otherwise, if a general reflection of commodities rocketing in prices.
Overall, Bearish bias on equities, with the chance of a quick rebound soon... but not before a spike down first.
Totally tied to the Russian Ukraine events for now.
Bitcoin shorts and a KEY lesson for day traders!Hey again traders!
Happy Monday and welcome to the new trading week!
Yesterday we released a post about Bitcoin explaining what we believe is happening and how we will be trading! Today we release yet another post this time detailing our strategy for the rest of the day when it comes to Bitcoin but also provide you with a key lesson on how you should approach day trading.
We hope this video helps you in one way or another and if it does, then our job has been a success here!
Happy Trading!
FEW SIMPLE TIPS TO IMPROVE YOUR TRADING PERFORMANCEToday we prepared for you few simple tips that may help you improve your trading performance.
Please feel welcome to share your own tips in the comment section.
Educate yourself.
No trader can become successful without spending plenty of time studying charts, fundamentals and technicals. Nowadays, there are plenty of financial gurus and trading courses which claim to offer knowledge that will transform you into a professional trader in just a short amount of time. Unfortunately, most of these services offer only shallow information that has no use in the real trading world. In our opinion, literature written by renowned traders and economists offer more profound knowledge and usually at better cost.
Analyze your trades and strategies.
Analyzing your past trades and strategies can help you learn from your mistakes. Additionally, it can help you recognize what you did correctly and what works for you.
Do not trade without a proper trading plan.
Each trade should have a proper trading plan. This plan should at least consist of entry/exit points and risk/reward evaluation. However, creating different scenarios for each trade can help you navigate the market even better.
Evaluate your risk/reward associated with each trade.
Each trade has a risk/reward ratio tied to it. Generally, a risk/reward ratio of 1:3 or more is preferable.
Do not chase the market when you are not sure where it is headed next.
There are times when the market is very volatile and experiences swings from side to side. Often, in such times, a trader may be unable to tell where the market is headed next. On such occasions it is usually better to take a step back and not to trade. This can help avoid loss of capital due to whipsaws.
Take a time off after the winning streak.
Winning streaks often result in confidence being gained by a trader. However, many traders tend to get overconfident which usually leads to loss of capital that has been amassed through the winning streak. Therefore, it is usually better to take some time off trading after substantial gains were made.
Take a break from trading after the losing streak.
Losing streak can negatively affect a trader's decision making. It can often result in loss of confidence and a needy feeling to make money back. However, a trader should resist these urges and take some break from trading. This is mainly because if a trader does not have confidence, it is much harder to execute trade properly.
Do not overtrade.
Sometimes there are no good trading opportunities. In such times it is usually better to take the role of market observer instead of trying to make money at any cost.
DISCLAIMER: This content serves educational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
Leading Indicators Reversal in ProgressInteresting... in the last couple of weeks, as the Leading Indicators signaled a retracement, it appears that it may be time for a technical bounce...
JNK broke down as expected, and exceeded target. Last week's candle had a long tail recovery, and this current week is forming a rebound.
MACD still in bear territory.
IWM, DJT and VALUG all seemed to have retraced hard, and bounced off a support. MACD crossed and still in bear territory... may not be over. sus.
TIPS failed a support and does not seem to be recovering, not bouncing for the matter. MACD appears to be recovering though. This one is rather odd, so I would just note and leave it for now.
TLT is not bullish as one would expect it to be. In fact, it looks bearish, which is favorable (bullish) for the equity markets.
VIX failed a solid break out and looks to be finding 16 again, signalling the interim volatilty is over and more bullish markets to prevail.
/HG Copper futures are held in a tight range and appear to be recovering this week - if it can hold steady and break out. MACD is not yet bullish.
Overall, the leading indicators are signalling an interim bottom. perhaps a larger than expected rebound should follow in the coming weeks...
Union Budget with a hammer in #bankniftyDhyaanpurvaak starakata!!
As we know sharing is caring, so I'm sharing my thoughts here!
This is like the third time I've seen a hammer above a average, that designates either of one, either a sideways or a huge pull up like 400 points or sideways and down, most likely tommorow is a golden days for buyers,a complete down market and within Friday we can expect market to go to 38254. I am keeping a positive note nd not both sideways so i would likely do that.
Mera idea achha lagta hai to please like and also sub my YT.
PTON Peloton Buy area after a Massive Head and Shoulders The price target of the massive head and shoulders bearish chart pattern was reached yesterday.
Insiders sold around 500Mil worth of shares last year.
PTON went lower than its IPO price, $29 and is now trading in a consolidation area.
the price is not yet safe in that range.
My buy area is $18 to $24.5
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Leading Indicators not bullish, slow deterioration observedReviewinig the Leading Inidcator Weekly panel...
The JNK has a Sell signal, retraced and may break down to a lower low target, as previously expected. Not yet happening, but with a lower high, the bias is closer to the downside.
The IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) also has a Sell signal and lower high. Waiting for a lower low confirmation with a break of support.
The DJT is also similar.
The Value Line failed to close the recent gap, suggesting downside bias.
The TIPS clearly broke down through two support levels with a system Sell signal. So this one committed.
All the above have MACD technically bearish bias.
The TLT is oddly breaking down too. No comments about this at this point of time. Just unusual.
The VIX is also unusually complacent, being <20. Technically seeing a possible spike some time in the next two weeks or so.
I just added the Copper futures in the panel... according to Russell Napier, Copper futures is also one of the leading indicators we can use. For now, it is ranging and not committed to any trend.
I hope we get some committed trend soon!
Stay safe!
Leading Indicators point to more the obviousLeading Indicator panel update:
JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high.
IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle.
DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover pattern.
Value Line - Similar outlook to DJ Trans, with bearish candlestick that failed to close the gap.
TIPS - Totally bearish Marubozu that broke two supports, with MACD bearish. This market forerunner is not boding decisively bearish.
TLT - Instead of the expected bullishness in a bearish market, we see TLT being dumped with a gap down marubozu.
VIX - still low, coiling to spike perhaps?
ES1! - The S&P500 futures had a Bearish Engulfing last week... indicative of a follow through downside in the weeks to come.
So... the leading indicators overall are bearish, and getting more so, with the S&P500 just became indicative of some real retracement potential in motion.
5 Fundamental aspects of day trading successHere's a quick video on a few vital skills every trader needs to acquire before he/she can actually achieve success in day trading.
This is 100% from our experience, we've worked hard to achieve success in day trading so these tips come from our direct experience.
Hope they help you guys:
HARD WORK: hard work in trading
doesn't come from actual trading,
hard work in trading comes down to
the preparation aspect.
PATIENCE: Patience enables an
excellent entry point, which allows
a trader to enter a bigger position
and increase the profitability factor.
DISCIPLINE: Discipline is following
the process day in day out without
altering it because of a few red
trades. Discipline is executing the
process every day and on every
trade.
REPLAYING TRADES: Reviewing
your biggest loses and your biggest
winners is literally the quickest way
to become a primed trader.