Major Decline in Yen /$US Head n should targets 131/128 The chart posted is the Next shoe to drop Liquidity and Assets to decline
TLT
Market Leading Indicators - suggests DOWNThis is my most summarized panel of leading indicators which I use to assist in the determination of market projections, over and above technical indicators.
The SG10Y is about to break out
The JNK bonds are breaking down
Both TIPS and TLT have already broken down the uptrend support (bearish trend now)
The SOXL (semicon ETF) and the combined US Equities are just about to keel over.
Leads have turned down or are at the turning point.
Heads up!
US10Y Most Deviated in History. Except for the Great DepressionThe percent deviation from model of second order measurements is one of the most useful metrics for timing the Bond Market. Shown here is the percent deviation of the 30 period close Monthly RSI from its 60 Month Simple for the US 10 year Treasury Bond. The only time in history it has deviated this much was the Great Depression.
TLT5 Target 118Retest of support after major breakout of the TLT5 exactly at historic bond moment, slope of the 20 Week SMA crossing over simultaneously. BBOT
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed AwakeningStocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced.
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2.
The main technical chart is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format/
With 11782 total number of holdings, AGG is US bond market in miniature.
Fears & Greed Awakening.
👉 VIX and VXN are sitting closer to their important levels, 20 and 25 points respectively.
👉 VIX to 50-Day VIX SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 VXN to 50-Day VXN SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns slumped almost to Zero.
Technical observations
👉 AGG technical graph indicates on huge developing Reversed Head-and-Shoulders, with 2-year highs breakthrough.
👉 The nearest target could be considered is multi top, around $108 mark.
👉 In mid- to long term it could be good for stock indices and markets, despite of possible turbulence and seismic activity.
TLT (Debt Supply) Goes Up With Federal Borrowing (Debt Demand)Here's your edge: the TLT blasts off when Government borrowing blasts off, a simple case of supply and demand.
The Federal Government borrowed 2.2 Trillion USD in the last 12 months, data that has been added to Bloomberg Terminals but not here on Tradingview or on FRED. I bring you a piece of the cake, friends.
SOURCE: x.com
TLT Monthly Candle TLT monthly candle matches the trend perfectly and is exactly at multiple strategic supports. This sort of perfection usually only occurs when the trend is long determined and the asset is simply dotting eyes and crossing tees on its way to a predetermined destination.
Big Bottom in BondsUS10Y/US02Y vs TLT & US10Y
Bonds tend to bottom at the same level of the ratio of 10 year yields to 2 year yields. Should we be using the ratio of long and short term yields instead of the difference to trade the Bond Market?
TLT/TLT5 Indicates TLT BBOTThe current value of the ratio of TLT to its leveraged product is equal to the monthly closes of the last two blast off points, resulting in 16% and 20% rallies within 2-5 months.
TLT Double B O T (BBOT Bond Blast Off Time)TLT at every support including the daily RSI. BBOT. Bond Blast Off Time.
Opening (IRA): TLT December 20th 88 Covered Call... for a 86.84 debit.
Comments: High IVR at 74.8% plus weakness.
Looking to grab both the November 1st and December 1st dividends here while I twiddle my thumbs waiting for the general election to pass, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 86.84
Max Profit (Excluding Dividends): 1.16
Max Profit (With Dividends): 1.80
ROC at Max Excluding Dividends: 1.34%
ROC at Max (With Dividends): 2.07%
Immediately post-fill, I put in a GTC order to take profit at .20 short of max or 87.80, but may take if off after the December dividend drops if something more "sexy" gives me that come hither look.
TLT +50% Every Time This Happens and It's Happening NowTLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close)
It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on allocation, as in Bonds plus Equities, you start making some progress. That's exactly what this chart represents; where the money is going and when. Hint: it's going into Bonds. Soon.
BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time) is here
TLT/FEDFUNDS might be indicating BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time)Slope of the ratio between Bonds and US Rates looks like 2008 and 2019, right before blast off time.
Only Three Times: Great Depression, Nixon Shock, NowThe quarterly RSI of the ratio of Bond Yields to Equities has only reached the current level twice in the last 100 years, once during the Great Depression and once during the Nixon Shock years.
Rolling (IRA): TLT Feb 21st 100 Calls to the 95 Calls... for a 1.09 credit.
Comments: Looked at all my options here for the rolling of the short call aspect of my covered calls -- rolling down, rolling down and out, rolling out as is, rolling to shorter duration and down ... . Going with rolling down in the same expiry for a 1.09 credit.
Resulting cost basis: 89.11.
It still remains a bet that the Fed will cut rates at some point, just with lower max profit potential.
TLT tends to bottom at the same level of TLT/XLETLT seems to bottom at a consistent level of the ratio of bonds to energy represented by TLT/XLE. TLT is currently at the level associated with macro bottoms and the start of major bond market rallies.
$TLT: Time for the bond market to wake up TLT at its trend line support, peak volumes, macd looks ready to curl up, last 3 times rsi was this low we saw a considerable bounce, plus a good cpi report on Thursday should provide the catalyst needed to cause a bounce in the bond markets.
MOVE INDEX A whole lot of FEAR today !!!The chart posted is that of the move index The Vix of the Bond market As you can see to the right of the chart Today Spike Outside of the bb bands . I am Long calls in TLT 90 strike 2026
VGLT - Correction to 72 USDFirst Target 72 USD; then, the last leg down will start, maybe it will not go past the lows but that will be the real capitulation and where I'll be ready to buy.
TLT + Rate CutsTLT bullish trend into 100 resistance with major Fed decisions coming in the next weeks/months. Has a gap to fill on the way to highest pt
Pts are 98.30, 98.70, and 100+
- Shifted narrative from inflation to labor market
- Data suggests Fed is very behind the curve
- Jackson Hole
- FOMC
Hmm... Something Interesting & Sweet is Brewing in T-Bond MarketIEF is a longer maturity, longer duration play on the US Intermediate Treasury segment. The fund focuses on Treasury notes expiring 7-10 years from now, which have significantly higher yield and interest rate sensitivity than the notes that make up our broader 1-10 year benchmark.
IEF`s average YTM is significantly higher than US-T Aggregated benchmark's. Of course, the higher yield comes with significantly higher sensitivity to changes in rates, particularly those at the longer end of the yield curve (10-year key rate duration).
The fund changed its index from the Barclays US Treasury Bond 7-10 Year Term Index to the ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index on March 31, 2016. This change created no significant change in exposure.
IEF's narrow focus and concentrated portfolio have been popular, so the fund is stable and easy to trade.
The main technical graph represents IEF' Total return (div-adjusted) format, and indicates on developing H&S structure, as US Federal Reserve tight monetary policy seems is near to ease.
