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NZD/USD Rises Ahead of Fed Decision, Reversal Risk LoomsNZD/USD has appreciated in recent trading sessions, supported by improved global risk sentiment as markets anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. However, while the New Zealand dollar has gained momentum, the outlook for the pair remains uncertain, with critical U.S. economic data expected today that could significantly impact all currency pairs trading against the U.S. dollar. Key Market Drivers: Fed and U.S. Economic News The Federal Funds Rate decision and the accompanying FOMC statement later this week are at the center of market attention. The potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve has already fueled a wave of optimism, boosting the New Zealand dollar. However, traders remain cautious as today’s U.S. economic news, including inflation and employment data, may provide critical insights into the strength of the U.S. economy ahead of the rate decision. Any significant surprises in today's economic reports could shift sentiment across all USD pairs, including NZD/USD, potentially creating increased volatility leading up to Wednesday's announcement. Technical Outlook: Overbought Conditions Raise Reversal Risk From a technical perspective, NZD/USD is currently in overbought territory, raising concerns that a reversal may be on the horizon. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a striking divergence between retail traders and institutional players. Retailers remain highly bullish on the pair, indicating optimism for continued gains. On the other hand, "smart money," represented by institutional traders, has adopted a more bearish stance, signaling caution. Given the pair’s overbought conditions and the growing divergence in trader sentiment, we have placed a pending order in anticipation of a potential reversal. This setup aligns with the COT data, where institutional positioning suggests that a pullback could be imminent. What to Watch: Fed’s Statement and Market Reaction As the week unfolds, the Federal Reserve's policy decision and statement will play a decisive role in the future trajectory of NZD/USD. A rate cut could further fuel the pair’s appreciation, but the market will closely scrutinize the Fed's tone regarding future rate cuts or tightening measures. Should the Fed take a more dovish stance, the U.S. dollar may weaken further, providing additional support for NZD/USD. Conversely, a more cautious or hawkish outlook could spark a shift in sentiment, favoring the U.S. dollar and triggering the expected reversal. Conclusion: Caution Ahead of Volatility While NZD/USD has benefited from recent risk-on sentiment, caution is warranted as the pair enters overbought territory. The ongoing divergence between retail traders and institutional investors, combined with the upcoming U.S. economic news and Fed decision, creates a complex landscape for traders. The potential for heightened volatility is high, making it essential to monitor these developments closely as the week progresses. For now, our technical indicators and market analysis suggest that a reversal may be imminent, and we are positioned accordingly with a pending order in place. However, as always, the Federal Reserve’s policy outcome will likely be the deciding factor in the pair’s near-term direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Gold price analysis September 17Fundamental Analysis Gold prices steadied at $2,580 on Tuesday, ahead of potentially market-moving US data later in the day and a Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on Wednesday. Gold surges as Fed rate cut expectations rise Gold prices surged to an all-time high (ATH) of $2,589 on Monday after market bets that the Fed will cut interest rates by a further 0.50% at its meeting on Wednesday surged, according to market-based gauges. Expectations of a Fed rate cut are positive for Gold as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal, a non-interest-paying asset, thus making it more attractive to investors. On the other hand, if the Retail Sales misses expectations, this will add to speculation of a half percent cut on Wednesday and positively impact Gold, which could rise to a new high. Technical Analysis Gold prices are close to the all-time high resistance around 2589 combined with important US news released. The scenario for US gold when Gold prices break the all-time high we will BUY fomo. and on the other hand when Gold prices correct, pay attention to the 2560 and 2545 zones for long-term BUY. Breakout upper: 2591 - 2603 Upper resistance: 2578- 2590 - 2600 - 2605 - 2615 - 2626 - 2645 Breakout lower: 2570 - 2564 - 2538 Support: 2572 - 2565 - 2552 - 2545 - 2539 - 2525 - 2516 SELL zone 2600 Stoploss 2606 SELL zone 2610 Stoploss 2615 BUY 2555 - 2553. Stoploss 2550 BUY 2545 - 2547. Stoploss 2541
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
AUD/JPY Short, AUD/NZD Short and NATGAS/USD ShortAUD/JPY Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of value. • If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. AUD/NZD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Break above area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. NATGAS/USD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by StewySongs
Gold price analysis September 16Fundamental Analysis Gold prices edged lower from fresh record highs around the $2,589-$2,590 region hit on Monday. The intraday decline could be attributed to some profit-taking amid generally positive risk sentiment, which tends to weigh on the safe-haven precious metal. However, any meaningful declines appear to be limited amid expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) easing. In fact, markets have begun to price in an over-the-top 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed later this week after data released last week provided further evidence of subdued US inflation. This has kept US Treasury yields and the US dollar (USD) near 2024 lows, which in turn will continue to act as a driver of non-yielding gold prices. Traders may also refrain from placing heavy bets ahead of the FOMC’s two-day policy meeting starting on Tuesday. This is followed by monetary policy updates from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Thursday and Friday, respectively, which could inject some volatility into the markets and provide fresh impetus to Gold prices. Hence, any meaningful corrective pullback could still be seen as a buying opportunity. Technical Analysis Gold is at an all-time high, so any bullish momentum will only be met with resistance at the psychological levels of 2600 and 2610. Support areas to place confidence in further buying are around 2570-2545. In today's European session, if gold breaks 2590, it is possible to execute SELL signals around 2600 and 2690. In case it does not break until the middle of the European session, SELL gold to 2570 before the US. If it breaks 2570 before the US session, hold until 2560-2545. Resistance: 2590 - 2600 - 2608 - 2612 - 2626 - 2645 Support: 2580 - 2571 - 2560 - 2545 SELL 2599 - 2601 Stoploss 2605 BUY 2567 - 2565. Stoploss 2561 BUY 2555 - 2553. Stoploss 2549
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
CAD/CHF Trade, NATGAS Short, A/N Short, G/U Long and E/U LongNATGAS/USD Short Minimum entry requirements: • If tight 1H continuation forms, 15 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. AUD/NZD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. GBP/USD Long Minimum entry requirements: • If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach forms, 15 min risk entry within it. EUR/USD Long Minimum entry requirements: • If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach forms, 15 min risk entry within it.
by StewySongs
Gold Price Analysis September 13Fundamental Analysis Gold prices maintained modest intraday gains heading into the European session on Friday and are currently hovering near the $2,565-2,570 region, or record highs. A softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report released on Thursday provided further evidence of easing inflation and raised expectations of a larger rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. This was reinforced by a fresh drop in US Treasury yields, which dragged the US dollar (USD) to its lowest in more than a week and continued to act as a bullish driver for the non-yielding yellow metal. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine also provided additional support for safe-haven gold. This, in turn, confirms the overnight breakout through a multi-week trading range and supports the outlook for a short-term bullish move. Technical Analysis Profit-taking by some investors at the end of the Asian session pushed the price to 2563 and continued to push it up when the European session entered. Today's scenario is that gold retreats to the 2560 zone and does not break this zone until the middle of the European session, so we can buy back to the target zone of 2574-2580. In the direction of breaking through the 2560 zone, we will not sell retest but wait for the BUY zones of 2555 and 2545. BUY signals can hold TP far away at the present time because gold can completely create ATH in the near future Price zones to pay attention to according to the scenario: 2555-2545-2560-2575-2580.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) Trade IdeaDASH is approaching a critical breakout point at $132. The recommended trading strategy includes exiting 25% at T1 ($137) with the stop loss moved to breakeven, exiting 50% at T2 ($143) with the stop loss moved to T1, and exiting the remaining 25% at T3 ($150). The stop loss is initially set at $124 to limit potential downside. It is important to monitor the volume closely for confirmation of a breakout above $132, as increased volume could signify a stronger breakout move.
NASDAQ:DASH
by TraderhrTrading
AUD/USD Weakens Toward 0.6745 and Rising USDThe AUD/USD pair is losing further ground, trading around 0.6745 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar is under pressure due to a widening Current Account deficit in the second quarter, which has dampened sentiment. This economic backdrop, coupled with a modest uptick in the US Dollar and a broader decline in risk appetite, is weighing on the pair. Market Focus Shifts to US Economic Data As the market shifts its focus to upcoming top-tier US economic data, the AUD/USD pair is likely to remain volatile. Investors are closely watching these releases for further clues on the direction of the US Dollar, which has been showing signs of strength. Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Align From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has recently rebounded from a key Supply area, suggesting that the upward momentum may be stalling. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report adds another layer to the bearish outlook, showing that retail traders are predominantly bullish on the AUD, a contrarian signal that often suggests potential downside. Additionally, the presence of divergence and a seasonal bearish pattern further supports the case for continued weakness in the AUD/USD pair. These factors combined indicate that the pair may continue to struggle in the near term. Trading Strategy: Scalping with a 1:1 Risk-Reward Ratio Given the current market conditions and the technical setup, a scalp entry with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio could be a prudent approach. While the ideal entry point higher up may have been missed, the ongoing bearish signals provide an opportunity for a short-term trade. Traders looking to capitalize on the continued weakness of the AUD/USD pair might consider this strategy, especially as the pair hovers near key support levels. Conclusion: Bearish Outlook Amid Economic and Technical Headwinds The AUD/USD pair faces several headwinds, including a widening Australian Current Account deficit, a stronger US Dollar, and unfavorable technical signals. As the pair continues to lose ground, traders should remain cautious and look for opportunities to capitalize on the bearish trend, particularly in light of upcoming US economic data that could further influence the pair’s direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
Gold Analysis September 9☘️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices witnessed an intraday reversal from an all-time high and fell below the psychological $2,500 level after the release of key US monthly employment data on Friday. The mixed US employment report reduced the chances of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, which prompted some cover in the US dollar (USD) prices and weighed on the precious metal. That said, concerns about a US recession dampened investors’ appetite for riskier assets and acted as a driver for safe-haven Gold prices. Additionally, the lack of progress in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas became another factor supporting XAU/USD during the Asian session on Monday. This warrants caution for bearish traders amid the prospect of an impending Fed rate cut cycle. ☘️Technical Analysis Gold is below the 2500 round port level, in fact this port area is no longer strong enough to push gold prices lower. The area of ​​interest in today's European session is around the 2507 Fibonacci 0.5 retracement zone and the 2512 Fibonacci final extension zone. These are two areas of interest for a SELL plan. When 2512 is broken, the downtrend on Friday is reversed. The main candle h4 is broken and ATH comes early this week, the expected level is 255x. The 2331 area is no longer valuable when gold pushes up. In the opposite direction, the 2470-2460 2433 area plays an important support role. 🌸Trading signal SELL zone 2505 - 2507 Stoploss 2511 BUY zone 2484 - 2482 Stoploss 2479 BUY zone 2473 - 2471. Stoploss 2467
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
EURUSD week 37 analysis🌐Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD gave up intraday gains and slipped below 1.1100 after hitting a fresh weekly high of 1.1150 during Friday's North American session. The broad currency pair's gains were offset by a solid recovery in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose to near 101.40 after reversing intraday losses. Signs of slowing labour demand have fuelled market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could start cutting interest rates aggressively. The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates again at its September meeting. The central bank started the policy easing process in June but left its key lending rate unchanged in July. In the final quarter of the year, traders remained divided on whether the ECB would cut at its November or December meeting, or both. 📊Technical Analysis The bounce and high of 1.115 has created a new bearish channel for EURUSD. On the 4-hour time frame, the two EMAs have come together, indicating that the bullish momentum is not as strong as last week and that a trend reversal is in order. The narrow price range that the pair formed last week at 1.113 and 1.101 is widening as a break from the narrow range could see the pair reach last month's high around 1.119 and on the upside, the support at 1.095 will keep the pair in the long-term bullish channel. Support: 1.101-1.095 Resistance: 1.115-1.119 🕯Trading Signals SELL EURUSD zone 1.119-1.121 Stoploss 1.123 BUY EURUSD zone 1.095-1.093 Stoploss 1.091
by TVS-Trader