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Morning Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/23 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market. It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4430, 4419, 4401, or 4392 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4425, 4416, 4405, 4399, or 4388 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4407. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:01pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
How To Lose Small When Trading BigLosing trades aren't always bad. It's when you don't manage the trade before you lose that can make losing trades bad. Let me walk you through 4 positions that I stacked week and show you how I avoided losing thousands of dollars and kept the loss to under 1%. Firstly, it's important to understand that I am a swing trader which means I observe a variety of higher timeframes. Secondly, I use my own strategy called TMP. It's based around every pullback within the trend cycles so I can trade the continuation of the trend. Thirdly, This analysis was mostly done on the weekly, daily, 4 hour, and 2 hour timeframe. Lastly, I aim for more than 2:1 reward to risk trades and for these trades I was sure to keep my losses below $500 a trade. Trade 1 s3.tradingview.com This trade was based on the weekly timeframe. The reward to risk was around 4.50 and I knew I'd be in this trade long term. Probably around a month or so, maybe longer. I risked 0.50% in the trade because I needed to build the analysis and I knew I wanted to stack more trades in case price went my way which you will see me begin to build in the new few trades. Trade 2 s3.tradingview.com This trade was based on the 4 hour timeframe. Price made a new higher high on the 4 hour. I set a pending order so when price pulled back it would trigger me into the trade. This trade was a 8:1 reward to risk ratio. I risked 0.50% on this trade. Price began to go my way. I felt good about the trade. Trade 3- Trailing the stop begins s3.tradingview.com Price made a new higher high. I had to drop down to the 2 hour timeframe to get a good view of this trade. My feelings on this trade was neutral. I reminded my self that no matter what I'd follow my rules. So I set another pending order and went about my day. The Reward to risk on this trade was a 16:1. I risked 0.25% on this trade. Now at this time I'm sitting at 1.25% of risk in 3 trades. This was when I decided to move my stop loss on both trades underneath the third trades higher low. I had just a little risk left on both of these trades but nothing heart stopping. I was stoped out of the third position for a for around -0.27%. But my first two trades continued to run. Trade 4- The last stand s3.tradingview.com Then price went my way. I realized I wanted to be long again and the entry sat right where I'd just entered my precious losing trade. The reward to risk was 19:1. Whew! This was the opportunity of opportunities for me this week and I couldn't avoid entering. So I set another pending order to buy. It triggered and a few hours later, I lost the trade. and my other trades were taken out as well. I lost a total of $761. This was only 0.76% loss in my account because of how I managed my trades as price went up in profit. Had I kept my trades at the same risk(1%) and never moved my stop loss I could have lost $4000 this week. The key to losing small is to build out your positions each time price makes a new high or low depending on the direction of the trade. I built 4 positions and I have to say I would do it again. The potential for big rewards to risk got me, and I knew risk 1% on each trade would have meant I'd lose my funded account due to their drawdown rules. I cannot lose 3% in one day. Thats very manageable when you decrease your risk per trade. Thats what had to be done. If you don't think you can pass a challenge by decreasing you risk, your rewards aren't big enough. If you learn anything from the trades I entered this week, the previous statement above is how can lose small while trading big. Do I still believe NZDCAD can go up? Yes! As long as price stays above the weekly higher low. I'll build out this scenario again. Well, I really do pray you enjoyed this recap from my trading this week. I had no other trades on my other currency pair so it was a smooth trading week. Be sure to like this article if you enjoyed it and found it intriguing. If you have any questions do ask them below. Much love and blessing❤️ Shaquan
Long
by ShaquanLopez
2
Seasonal TrendsSEASONAL TRENDS Time to trade and time to rest BINANCE:BTCUSD There are not only days or weeks in the market with a high probability of working out trading patterns. But there are also seasons and months in which trade acquires its own specific characteristics, which may either offer favorable market conditions or be completely uninviting to trade. Seasonal trends are not a magic pill. It is always necessary to analyze each asset class separately. But if your analysis is consistent with the seasonal trend, then you will be trading the most probabilistic patterns. December - January During the final and initial months of the calendar year, it is common for markets to experience consolidation, resulting in less favorable price behavior for the formation of trading patterns. This trend is primarily influenced by the busy holiday schedule and bank holidays, which lead to a reduction in market liquidity. Many traders choose to take vacations during these periods or dedicate more time to observing and testing new trading patterns. As a result, market activity may slow down, and the formation of distinct trading patterns becomes less prominent. It is important for traders to be aware of these market dynamics and adjust their strategies accordingly during these times of consolidation. February - March - April Since February, the markets have transitioned out of consolidations and have started to show movement and the formation of trends, which provide more favorable price action for traders. This shift can be attributed to the entry of smart capital into the market in significant volumes. During these periods, traders have the opportunity to witness the emergence of optimal and highly probable trading models. The increased market activity and participation of smart capital contribute to clearer price trends and patterns, allowing traders to potentially capitalize on profitable trading opportunities. It is important for traders to closely monitor market conditions during these periods and utilise appropriate strategies to take advantage of the favorable trading models that arise. May - June - July - August The saying "Sell in May and go away" has some justification as it relates to the behavior of smart capital in taking profits on their positions before the summer period of low volatility. This phenomenon can result in the formation of a downward trend and subsequent consolidation in both stock and cryptocurrency markets during what is commonly referred to as the "summer depression." During this time, many professional traders, particularly in August, take vacations as market activity and trading opportunities may be limited due to decreased liquidity and overall subdued market conditions. It is worth noting that while this saying has been observed in the past, market dynamics can vary, and it is important for traders to adapt their strategies and remain vigilant to potential opportunities even during periods of lower market activity. September - October - November In the last quarter of the year, the markets typically experience a resurgence in activity. The stock market often sees a rally, with an increase in buying interest and positive market sentiment. On the other hand, the foreign exchange market tends to exhibit more favorable trading conditions, characterised by increased volatility and opportunities for profitable trading patterns. During this period, many professional traders actively participate in the markets, taking advantage of the improved trading conditions and seeking to capitalize on potential profit opportunities. The renewed market activity marks the beginning of a new cycle, where market trends and dynamics may undergo significant changes. I repeat once again that you need to take into account the stage of the cycle and not rely only on seasonality + take into account the macro situation in the world and the news background I wish you all good trading Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Crypto4light
Understanding US Economic newsUS Economic Indicators: We know about trends and trend changes, but why a trend changes? The tops and bottoms of the market are determined by the fundamentals, like news releases, while the technicals show us how we get between those two points. So a news release can be the cause or trigger of a trend change. So it is to our advantage to at least be aware of upcoming news releases. Here are some releases to watch for: Non-Farm Payrolls Non-Farm Payrolls have proven itself to be one of the most significant fundamental indicators in recent U.S. history. As a report of the number of new jobs created outside the farming industry each month, a positive or negative NFP can get traders to act very hastily. A better than expected figure is very bullish for the dollar, whereas a more sluggish number usually results in the dollar being sold off. There is another component of unemployment released on the same day: The Unemployment Rate. Unemployment measures the amount of people that are out of a job, but are actively seeking one. If this number is smaller, then it means that the people that are seeking jobs are finding them, possibly meaning that businesses are well off and that the economy is expanding. The NFP is a number, usually between 5-6 figures, whereas the Unemployment rate is a percentage. A higher NFP number and lower unemployment number are generally bullish for the dollar and vice versa. It is difficult to trade the NFP and Unemployment Rate only because many times traders will not pay attention to what seems to be the most significant components, but will instead focus in on what reinforces their bias. Also, the release causes a significant amount of volatility in the markets. FOMC Rate Decision Interest Rate decisions for the Fed Funds Rate are very important when trading the U.S. Dollar. When the Fed raises interest rates, the yield offered by dollar denominated assets are higher, which generally attracts more traders and investors. If interest rates are lowered, that means that the yield offered by dollar denominated assets is less, which will give investors less of an incentive to invest in dollars. When the decision is made about the rate it is always accompanied by a statement where the Fed gives a brief summary of what they think of the economy as a whole. When reading the statement it is important to check the exact language. Many times by the time that the decision is published, it is usually factored into the market. This means that only slight fluctuations are seen if the decision is as expected. The statement on the other hand is analyzed word for word for any signs of what the Fed may do at the next meeting. Remember the actual interest rate movement tends to be less important than the expectations for future interest rate moves. Retail Sales The Retail Sales figure is an important number in a series of key economic data that comes out during the month. Because it measures how much businesses are selling and consumers are purchasing, a strong retail sales figure could signal dollar bullishness because it means strength in the US economy, whereas a less-than-expected number could lead to dollar bearishness. Again, the logic behind this is that if consumers are spending more, and businesses are making more money, then the economy is picking up pace, and to keep inflation from creeping in during this time period, the Fed may have to raise rates, all of which would be positive for the US dollar. Traders tend to use the Retail Sales figure more as a leading indicator for other releases such as Consumer Confidence and CPI, and thereby don’t usually “jump the gun,” unless the numbers are terribly out of proportion. Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries (TIC Data) The Treasury International Capital flow (TIC) reports on net foreign securities purchases measures the amount of US treasuries and dollar denominated assets that foreigners are holding. A key feature of the TIC data is its measurement of the types of investors the dollar has; governments and private investors. Usually, a strong government holding of dollar denominated assets signals growing dollar optimism as it shows that governments are confident in the stability of the U.S. dollar. Looking at the different central banks, most important seems to be the purchases of Asian central banks such as that of Japan and China. Waning demand by these two giant US Treasury holders could be bearish for the US dollar. As for absolute amount of foreign purchases, the market generally likes to see purchases be much stronger than the funding needs of that same month’s trade deficit. If it is not, it signals that there is not enough dollars coming in to match dollar going out of the country. As a side note, purchases by Caribbean central banks are generally seen to be less consistent since most hedge funds are incorporated in the Caribbean. Hedge funds generally have a much shorter holding period than other investors. US Trade Balance The Trade Balance figure is a measure of net exports minus net imports and tends to be negative for the U.S. as it is primarily a “consuming” nation. However, a growing imbalance in the Trade Balance suggests much about the current account and whether or not if the U.S. is “overspending” on foreign goods and services. Traders will understand a decreasing Trade Balance number to implicate dollar bullishness, whereas a growing disparity between exports and imports will lead to dollar bearishness. Because the figure precedes the Current Account release, it pretty much helps project the direction of change in the Current Account and also begins to factor in those expectations. Current Account Balance The U.S. Current Account is a figure representing the total accrued deficit of the U.S per quarter against foreign nations. Traders will interpret a greater deficit as bad news for the U.S. and will consequently sell the dollar, whereas a shrinking deficit will spark dollar bullishness. Usually, the Current Account Deficit is expected to be funded by the net foreign securities, but when ends don’t meet in these data, the Current Account could signal a big dollar sell-off. Additionally, because the Current Account data comes out after the Trade Balance Numbers, a lot of its expectations begin to get priced into the market, so a surprise to either side of expectations could result in big market movements for the dollar. Consumer Price Index (CPI)/Producer Price Index (PPI) The Consumer Price Index is one of the leading economic gauges to measure the pace of inflation. Many investors and the Fed constantly monitor this figure to get an understanding about the future of interest rates. Interest rates are significant because not only do they have a direct impact on the amount of capital inflow into the country, but also say much about dollar-based carry trades. If the inflation number comes in higher than expected, traders will interpret that to mean that an interest rate hike is more likely in the near future and will thus buy dollars, whereas a figure that falls short of expectations may cause traders to wait on the sideline until the Fed actually makes a decision. Essentially, trading a negative change in CPI is much more difficult than trading a positive change due to the nature of different interpretations. A significant increase in the CPI will result in much dollar bullishness, but a decrease will not necessarily result in dollar bearishness. The CPI measures inflation at the retail level (consumers), while the PPI measures the inflation at the wholesale level (producers). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The U.S. Gross Domestic Product is a gauge of the overall output (goods & services) of the U.S. economy. If the figure increases, the economy is improving, and often the dollar will strengthen. If the number falls short of expectations or meets the consensus, dollar bearishness may be triggered. This sort of reaction is again tied to interest rates, as traders expect an accelerating economy to be mired by inflation and consequently interest rates will go up. However, much like the CPI, a negative change in GDP is more difficult to trade; just because the pace of growth has slowed does not mean it has deteriorated. On the other hand, a better than expected number will usually result in the dollar rising as it implicates that a quickly expanding economy will sooner or later require higher interest rates to keep inflation in check. Overall though, the GDP has fallen in significance and its ability to move markets since most of the components of the report are known in advance Durable Goods The Durable Good figure measures the amount of capital spending the U.S. is doing, such as on equipment, transportation, etc., both on a business and personal level. Essentially, the more the U.S. spends the more the dollar stands to benefit; the opposite is also true. This is because increased spending could very well be a harbinger for inflation, and thus consequently, interest rate hikes. Traders will usually focus in on the durable goods figure, but not too deeply, as it usually precedes data regarding housing starts and the annualized GDP figure release. Therefore trading based on the Durable Goods number is only voluminous when stagnancy in other key economic releases has been confirmed by a market consensus.
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
21
GoldViewFX - Market UPDATEHey Everyone, We finish off the week with all our targets hits. The swing range provided the swing we expected for a nice push up from 1895 to 1919 for a perfect finish. True level to level trading. We will now come back Sunday with our updated multi timeframe analysis and trading plans for the coming week BULLISH TARGETS 1925 - DONE 1931 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 1931 WILL OPEN 1938, 1944 AND 1950 BEARISH TARGETS 1919 - DONE 1912 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 1912 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 1895 - DONE Hope you all have a great weekend with your family and loved ones. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it! GoldViewFX XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
Why almost traders fail in trading?Trading is an incredibly captivating and exhilarating profession that holds the promise of substantial profits, financial independence, and the freedom to work from anywhere. However, alongside the allure of great rewards, there are significant risks involved, resulting in a high failure rate of around 90% among traders. So, why do so many traders fail? Let's delve into the reasons: 💥 Lack of education: Numerous traders dive into the world of trading without acquiring the necessary education or training. They lack understanding of market dynamics, technical analysis, and risk management. Trading is a skill that demands time, learning, and practice. Without a solid education, traders resemble blind individuals attempting to navigate through a complex maze. 💥 Emotional trading: Emotions serve as the most formidable adversaries of traders. Fear, greed, and hope can cloud judgment and lead to poor decision-making. Achieving success in trading requires discipline and emotional control. Traders must learn to keep their emotions in check and adhere to their well-defined trading plans. 💥 Overtrading: Many traders harbor the belief that engaging in a higher volume of trades translates into greater profits. However, overtrading can lead to exhaustion, stress, and financial losses. Traders should prioritize quality trades over quantity and avoid succumbing to the temptation of excessive trading. 💥 Lack of risk management: Trading inherently involves risks, and traders must develop the ability to manage them effectively. Risk management encompasses implementing stop-loss orders, employing appropriate position sizing, and embracing diversification. Traders who neglect to manage risks adequately may find themselves depleting their trading accounts rapidly. 💥 Unrealistic expectations: Trading is not a swift path to amassing wealth. It demands patience, perseverance, and hard work. Many traders harbor unrealistic expectations regarding their profits and desired timelines. As a result, they either give up prematurely or expose themselves to excessive risk in pursuit of quick gains. So, what can traders do to avoid failure? 🐸 First and foremost, educate themselves: Traders should prioritize learning the fundamentals of trading, technical analysis, and risk management. Numerous online courses, such as those offered by Udacity and Trading Academy, can provide valuable knowledge and guidance. 🐸 Develop emotional discipline: It is crucial to control emotions and adhere to a well-defined trading plan. Traders must approach trading as a business, following strict rules akin to any other enterprise. 🐸 Implement proper risk management: Before commencing trading, traders should devise a robust risk management strategy. This includes setting stop-loss orders, never risking more than they can afford to lose, and diversifying their portfolios. 🗣️ In conclusion, trading holds the potential for a rewarding career and numerous benefits. However, traders must remain cognizant of the associated risks and pitfalls. By prioritizing education, managing emotions, and implementing sound risk management strategies, traders significantly increase their chances of success. Good luck on your trading journey!
AMEX:SPY
by A1TradingHub
GoldViewFX - Channel bottom to top for the finish! BOOOOMHey Everyone, We close off the week with a lovely finish. As stated yesterday, price was testing a strong level of support and we were looking to buy the dip from the channel bottom. We took our Buy from the new Goldturn support created on the channel bottom this morning and rode the move up all the way to the channel top - BOOOOOM !!!! We will now come back Sunday, as usual with our full multi timeframe analysis and trading plans for the coming week. Hope you all have a smashing weekend! GoldViewFX XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
1
Realities vs. Trading Myths. This one is for beginners!Hello traders, today we will talk about Myths and Reality of Trading. As you may already be aware, there are a lot of misconceptions that new traders encounter before they begin their trading careers. The following interpretations of those statements are presented on the layout: 1) The majority of individuals believe that trading is simple and that they can immediately stop working or doing anything else in order to make a living off of trading. In fact, he or she MUST have a backtested strategy and have sufficient industry knowledge in order to be successful, reliable, and a full-time trader in general. Keep in mind that achievement takes time, but it is totally worthwhile! 2) "Trading is like a casino" is a statement we frequently hear. This phrase is frequently used by only two types of people: those who have never been able to succeed in this field and those who have no plan or notion of what they are doing. Never open a position based on the outcome of a coin toss or what other people are saying. A trader may be inspired to open a position on a certain security by the ideas and analysis of others. 3) No matter what line of work one is in, including trading, one can never become wealthy in a single day. A qualified lawyer must practise for at least six years before becoming a licenced surgeon, which takes between 10 and 14. What gives you the impression that you can master trading in a matter of weeks or months? 4) Use a Stop Loss at all times to prevent substantial losses, regardless of the circumstance. Regardless of whether liquidity hunt occurs or not, it is always necessary to keep secure. 5) Risk management always takes precedence over victory percentage. Imagine your next 10 trades have a 1:3 Risk-to-Reward ratio with a 50% win rate. This implies that you will win 5 and lose 5. Let's imagine we choose to stake 1% of our capital on each deal. If we quickly calculate the numbers, we can see that with a 50% win rate and a 1:3 RR, our next 10 transactions will net us a tasty 10% return. Of course, this is not always the case because there are various things to take into account, including spreads, charges, pip value, etc. This is a great illustration to get the point across, though. 6) A significant portion of traders prefer trading the "Smart Money" concept, which is ostensibly the closest thing we have to institutional trading, over the "Retail Way" because they find it to be more profitable. The main line is to pick a method that works best for you and stick with it while adjusting it as you go. Changing tactics every week or month won't help one become consistent. You must commit to and stay to a single trading strategy. 7) Many beginning traders tend to increase their risk in attempts to make more profits. This approach is so risky and totally wrong. If one is willing to make more money trading, it is important that he or she increases the input, and not the risk. This chart is just for information Never stop learning I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
Education
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
6
📊 7 Steps To Plan Your TradingHere are 7 steps to consider before entering a trade. Pick one or multiple options for each step to incorporate into your plan. 🔷 Timeframe: This step involves determining the desired timeframe for the trade, which can vary from day trading on shorter timeframes (m15 to h1), swing trading on intermediate timeframes (h4 to d1), or position trading on longer timeframes (d1 to w1). Choosing the appropriate timeframe helps establish the trade duration and the level of monitoring required. 🔷 Risk Management: This step focuses on determining the level of risk to allocate to each trade. It is recommended to risk a certain percentage of capital per trade, typically ranging from 1% to 3%. This ensures that losses are limited and helps maintain consistent risk across trades. 🔷 Conditions: Identifying market conditions is crucial for trade planning. Traders need to assess whether the market is ranging (moving within a defined price range) or trending (showing a clear upward or downward direction). Understanding the prevailing market conditions helps in selecting appropriate trading strategies and indicators. 🔷 Markets: This step involves selecting the specific financial markets or instruments in which to trade. Traders can choose from a wide range of options, such as equities (stocks), options, bonds, futures or Crypto. The choice depends on individual preferences, market knowledge, and the availability of suitable trading opportunities. 🔷 Entries: Determining entry points is essential for initiating a trade. This step involves selecting entry strategies based on the identified market conditions. Common entry methods include taking advantage of pullbacks (temporary price retracements within a trend), breakouts (entering when price surpasses a key level), or trading news events that can cause significant price movements. 🔷 Stops: Placing stop-loss orders is crucial for managing risk and protecting capital. Traders need to determine stop levels that are strategically placed away from market structures, such as support and resistance levels. This helps minimize the chances of premature stop-outs due to normal market fluctuations while still ensuring that losses are controlled. 🔷 Targets: Setting profit targets is essential for determining when to exit a trade. Traders can choose between fixed targets, where a predetermined price level is identified to take profits, or trailing stops, where the stop-loss order is adjusted as the trade moves in the trader's favor. Both approaches aim to capture gains and lock in profits while allowing the trade to run if the market continues to move favorably. 👤 @QuantVue 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
1
Avoiding emotion in Trading!Avoiding emotions in trading can be challenging, but it is essential for making rational and objective decisions. Here are some strategies to help you minimize the impact of emotions on your trading: - Develop a trading plan: Create a well-defined trading plan that outlines your goals, risk tolerance, entry and exit points, and overall strategy. Following a plan helps you stay focused on your predefined criteria instead of making impulsive decisions based on emotions. - Set clear rules and stick to them: Establish clear rules for your trading activities and adhere to them strictly. For example, determine the maximum amount you are willing to risk on a single trade and never exceed it. Having predetermined rules eliminates the need for impulsive decisions driven by emotions. - Use stop-loss orders: Implementing stop-loss orders helps limit your potential losses by automatically triggering an exit from a trade when a certain predetermined price level is reached. This can prevent you from holding onto losing trades due to the fear of missing out or the hope that the market will reverse. - Avoid overtrading: Overtrading can occur when you let emotions, such as greed or fear of missing out, dictate your actions. Stick to your trading plan and only execute trades that meet your predefined criteria. Taking fewer, well-analyzed trades can reduce emotional decision-making. - Practice risk management: Effective risk management is crucial for maintaining emotional balance. Determine the appropriate position size for each trade based on your risk tolerance and overall portfolio management strategy. By managing risk effectively, you can minimize the impact of losses on your emotions. - Maintain a long-term perspective: Trading can be volatile in the short term, but it's important to keep a long-term perspective. Avoid getting overly influenced by daily market fluctuations or short-term trends. Focus on your trading plan and the bigger picture, which can help you make more rational decisions. - Take breaks and manage stress: Trading can be stressful, and stress can amplify emotions. Take regular breaks, practice relaxation techniques, and engage in activities outside of trading to maintain a healthy emotional state. A clear and focused mind is essential for making objective decisions. - Analyze and learn from your trades: After each trade, review your performance objectively. Analyze both successful and unsuccessful trades to understand the factors behind the outcomes. By learning from your experiences, you can refine your strategy and reduce emotional decision-making in the future. Remember, emotions are a natural part of being human, but successful trading requires discipline and the ability to make rational decisions. While it may not be possible to completely eliminate emotions, these strategies can help you minimize their impact and make more objective trading decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by A1TradingHub
The AEM Framework: 3-Step Guide to Successful TradingToday, I'd like to introduce you to the 'AEM' framework – a three-step process to successful trading. This framework is designed for everyone, from beginners starting their journey to seasoned professionals looking to refine their strategies. It involves three fundamental steps: Analyze, Execute, and Manage. Let's break down each element: 🔍 'A' for Analyze The first step to becoming a successful trader is to understand yourself and find a trading style that suits your personality, risk tolerance, and financial goals. This includes your emotional comfort with taking risks, your patience levels, and your time commitment to trading. Once you've figured out your trading style, the next step is to analyze potential strategies. Whether you're inclined towards fundamental analysis, technical analysis, or a combination of both, you must thoroughly understand the strategies you want to apply. Finally, analyze your chosen strategies and yourself to create a robust trading plan. Your trading plan should include what you'll trade, when you'll enter and exit trades, and your criteria for decision-making. Remember, the goal isn't to make perfect predictions but to follow a consistent plan that can potentially yield positive results over the long term. 🎯 'E' for Execute The second phase is execution. You've made your plan, and now it's time to put it into action. Execute your trades according to your strategy, without letting emotions cloud your judgement. Remember, it's about sticking to your plan – not chasing profits or running from losses. But executing your plan isn't just about trading. It's about discipline and consistency, regularly reviewing your trading activity, making adjustments as necessary, and continuously learning from your experiences. 📊 'M' for Manage The final step in the AEM framework involves managing several aspects of your trading: Manage Yourself: Trading can be emotionally taxing. Maintain your physical and mental health to ensure you're always in the best shape to make rational decisions. Manage Your Risk: No strategy is bulletproof. Always use stop losses, position sizing, and diversification to manage your risk effectively. Manage Your Trades: Monitor your trades, keep records, and review them periodically to identify patterns, learn from your mistakes, and improve your strategy. Manage Your Money: Keep your capital safe. Never risk more than a small percentage of your trading capital on any single trade, and be sure to keep some funds in reserve for unexpected opportunities or setbacks. The AEM approach is a comprehensive method that can assist you at all levels in creating, executing, and managing a successful trading plan. It encourages introspection, disciplined execution, and careful management. Remember, the journey to trading success isn't always smooth, but the right approach and mindset can make it considerably more navigable.
Education
by TheFxAce
13
Nifty Trade Setup (09-June-2023)This will be my personal trade Setup, This is not an advice of any kind to initiate trade according to this setup. This is for only for my learning purpose and maintaining my trading journal. Today Nifty gave good setups wasn't able to pre analyze due to work and missed good trade after many days of range bound and gaps. :) Trade Setup for tomorrow: 1.) If opens flat and took support near trendline and 18580 will look for buy for target of 18700, 18726 and PDH. . if doesn't hold 18580 support will look for shorting for next support place. 2.) If gaps i will wait for good setups to form.
NSE:NIFTY
by TradeInsights
VET/USD - My Longterm PlanVeChain update with my opinions and what i plan to do if my opinions are correct: Here is a closer look at the 1 day VET/USD chart: While VET did have a nice move up from $0.0152 to $0.032, that impetus is gone and VET is now making Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Notes: VET is still in its Descending Channel Pattern. VET is back in the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud. VET is under both its 50MA and 200MA levels. The 50MA has crossed back under the 200MA on this 1 day timeframe. If we look at the volume for VET/USD, it’s been very low since around July 2021 and has not really recovered. On this chart, i have added various Support and Resistance Lines as well as Areas of Interest as highlighted with the Black Dotted Lines with Yellow Shading. If we look at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF Indicator), we can see that the MF Line is still very near its 0.00 Base Line, a cross below the 0.00 Base Line will take VET into Distribution on this 1 day Timeframe. Note the the MF Line is still below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) Line. My longterm Hodl plan for VET/USD: I still believe we will see $0.0096 to $0.0084 especially when the USA finally admits publicly that it is in a Recession, which when it does, will mean it’ll actually be in a Depression. So if this recession plan follows through then i will be looking to buy in around $0.0096 to $0.0084 and longterm hold until it reaches back to the ATH of around $0.28 and then re-asses the situation. A successful Daily Candle close below $0.0152 will be my first confirmation that we may see below $0.01. With the potential oncoming of this world depression, if the only way out for the US is to start WW3 to counter BRICS, the loss of the Petro Dollar, the loss of sanction power and the growing +$32T of debt then i believe we could see $0.0057 to $0.0043. When the oncoming recession/depression pivots and the new Bull-Run starts, after a while, keep an eye out for when the Mainstream Media starts broadcasting to the public about huge Crypto Gains! When this happens you’ll suddenly have random family and friends who now want to jump into crypto because it has gone up 1000s of %! This will be the time to consider taking profit on any long term hold as all the newbies jumping on the band wagon will be providing EXIT LIQUIDITY to those who got in at a really low price. Once this happens, then the market makers will change direction and become Bearish as Bulls and Bears are the same people I.E they are the Market Makers. I have seen this happen twice now with the Crypto market, once in 2017 and another in 2021. As always, we must keep an eye on what BTC/USD is doing. Anyway, this is all just my opinion and i have other strategies in place for if we don’t see sub $0.01 again. I hope this post is helpful.
BINANCE:VETUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
7
6/1: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Over the past few weeks, a pattern has emerged where Thursdays and Fridays see a violent squeeze, followed by a "hangover" state in the first few days of the next week. Both last week and this week so far have followed this pattern. We are currently in the sub-4200 congestion zone after yesterday's dip, having retraced about 60% of last week's rally. The Markets 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit Trading Plan 💪 4193 - 4185 is support 📈 Next minor is 4212, then 4221 📉 Pullback if 4185 fails is 4167, then 4145 Key Structures The purple triangle backtest has a support level of 4147 and a resistance level of 4190. Resistance is now around 4221 on the small white channel. A new leg up to break the weekly high would begin if this area could be reclaimed. Support Levels 4193 (major), 4185-88, 4176, 4167-70, 4160, 4146, 4137, 4125-28, 4112-15, 4099 (major), 4084, 4070-75, 4062, 4048 (major), 4036, 4030 (major) Resistance Levels 4200-05 (major), 4213, 4221, 4230, 4240-43 (major), 4247, 4263, 4274 Trading Plan Expect a more complex trading session today, with possibilities for both long and short setups. The 4190 triangle level was reclaimed at around 4194, offering some long exposure opportunities. However, trading in the 4185-90 zone requires skill and a strong real-time sense of action due to its messy and well-tested nature. An alternative is to test around 4185, then spike back up to 4192 for an entry. Potential knife catch long locations include the 4160 and 4146 levels if there is a leg down. Wrap Up Yesterday's session was complex and future sessions are likely to follow suit. After the easy trend last week, it's time to be strategic. Focus on reacting, with a loose lean as follows: as long as 4193-85 holds, a push back to 4213 and 4221, followed by another dip, is possible. If 4185 fails, a correction may be needed, possibly down to 4160. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Nifty Trade Setup (31-May-2023)This will be my personal trade Setup, This is not an advice of any kind to initiate trade according to this setup. This is for only for my learning purpose and maintaining my trading journal. So today also with range bound action all day nifty gained 40 points in last 1 hour. so what to expect tomorrow also monthly close volume is rising and only 250 points from Nifty's ATH. BNF already broked ATH and doing good in sustaining it. Trade Setup for tomorrow: 1. If opens flat will wait for rising triangle to break up or down and will long or short according break side respectively. 2. If opens gap up above Triangle pattern will wait price to take support on that resistance or not if it takes support then will look for buy for target for Rising wedge trendline. if it doesn't hold near resistance then will short for target of rising trendline support. 3.) If opens gap down will look for price to take support near last 2 days lows ( PDL) if it takes supports there then will look for long for target of todays high. if doesn't takes support near PDL then will look for short for target of gap filing which is at 18510. also nifty is trying to consolidate like BNF To reach new highs and its good as it makes base for good support. Views are bullish on nifty to make new highs soon. Hit like to keep me motivated for keeping my trading journal as it only take less then few seconds to hit like but it gives me motivation for preparing for my session. Also one can comment on how I can make this trade journal better any improvements I need in it :) .
NSE:NIFTYLong
by TradeInsights
WA INC - 7683 JPY - Trend Value Trigger=============================TRADE LAYOUT============================ 1. IDENTIFY THE TREND a) Series of new higher high swing and higher low swing: YES b) 10 EMA > 30 EMA > 50 EMA: YES c) EMAs pointing upwards: YES d) Output: UPTRENDING MARKET e) Bias: LOOKING FOR LONG OPPORTUNITIES CLOSE TO VALUE AREAS 2. IDENTIFY THE VALUE AREA a) 10 EMA: OFFERING SUPPORT SINCE END OCTOBER, 2022 b) 50 EMA: - c) Support area: - d) Demand area: - e) Trendline: - 3. LOOK FOR A TRIGGER IN THAT AREA a) Candlestick pattern: BULLISH MARUBOZU b) Break of structure in the lower timeframe: - 4. SET A STOP LOSS a) 1 average bar size (14 periods) below the value are: 3100 JYP (10 EMA - 87 JPY) b) 1 ATR below the value area: - 5. SET A TARGET a) Resistance area: b) Supply area: JPY 4200 - JPY 4400 c) 10 EMA: - d) 50 EMA: - e) Trendline: - 6. POSITION SIZE / RISK MANAGEMENT: a) No more that 1% of your total equity at risk on an single trade, therefore: (Stop Loss (set logically as per above) / Entry Point) x 100 / Total Equity < 1 b) No more than 30% of your total equity at risk at any given moment =============================WHY?=================================== Put simple (and it is): WHY TRADING WITH THE TREND? The trend is your friend. Trends do bend, but until that unavoidable moment comes, the odds get tacked on your side if you trade in the same direction of the trend. WHAT IS A VALUE AREA? Just an area where the odds are, the bulls will step up and support the price, or the bears will step up and stem a sell off. WHAT MAKES YOU THINK YOU CAN IDENTIFY THEM? Rational behavior from big institutions, herd behavior, quantitative anchors, qualitative anchors from other traders. These are usually translated into price movements, price movements that leave traces, even patterns. Let me give you a couple of examples for argument's sake: a) You want to fly to Japan, so you jump into your flight tickets' website to purchase your tickets. Today you see that the price of a ticket is 500$. You think it is too expensive, so you decide to wait for tomorrow to check if the price decreases. Tomorrow you check again, and now the price is 600$. What do you do next? Perhaps you wait another day, and then you see the price getting back to 500$, those 500$ now look cheap to you so you buy (support). Or perhaps then it becomes 700$ and the FOMO kicks in and you buy because tomorrow it might as well be 800$. b) Investment Fund Warren Buffet and Co has done their due diligence, applied their fundamental assessments and decided stock X is cheap at 10$ and purchased stock X, which happened to be trading at 10$. Like a ton of stock, billions worth of it. A month later, after stock x rallied, it got back to trading at 10$. Unless the macro situation has dramatically changed, what do you think Hedge Fund Warren Buffet and Co will do now? c) Richcoin is trading at all time highs. Everyone in your neighborhood holds richcoin. The cab drivers are thinking of quitting their jobs because they hold richcoin. Are you really going to be the only loser who does not buy richcoin? - Herding. d) Investment Fund Jesse Livermore and Co has stacked loads of shares of stock Y. It has already started to conduct a marketing campaign. Since it is necessary for the public to buy and price up their stock, they can risk having an early sell off in their stock hampering their campaign. So they can't risk having the public panicking with sharp price declines … yet. So what happens when the price touches key EMAs like the 10 and the 50 (w), they support the price and the uptrend. Behaviors like these echo through the markets. And they leave traces. WHY DO YOU NEED TO IDENTIFY THESE AREAS? Because you want one of two things: 1. Your idea is supported by the team you chose to support. 2. Your idea is not supported but in any case you get the chance to know that immediately and not waste further time and money with your idea HOW ABOUT THE TRIGGER? WHY DO YOU NEED IT? Ok, the price is trading in a value area. But can you really tell in which direction it is moving now? Well, you never, but if you identify a directional pattern springing in that area, then once again you stack the odd on your side if you just follow that direction, even though shakeout will sooner or later knock on every trader's door. AND POSITION SIZING? This should even have been rule number zero. Nobody, and I mean, nobody knows the future. No technical analysis or fundamental or whatsoever, will ever save you from the uncertainty of the future and the complexity of reality. That means that this is a game of stacking odds in your favor, not aiming at certainties. That means that this is a game of guaranteeing your survival in the markets each day, to make sure you have an everlasting exposure to favorable odds and positive black swans. ==================================================================== Having this said, discretionary trading is a heavy burden, so many choices, so many doubts … At a certain stage of your development as a trader you will realize that setting a quantified trading system, which translates these biases and ideas into numbers, conditions, signals and commands, and is time tested, is your next step as a trader. If that's the stage where you're at, then feel free to drop by my store for backtested, quantified trading strategies across all markets and asset classes. Cheers, Tenacious Tribe - Back Tested, Quantified Trading Strategies & Studies 50% discount on all products! Use code MOX Q3C WXRX on our website to unlock this limited offer.
TSE:7683Long
by ruben_rodrigues
5/23: Market Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanToday's Recap The failed breakdown, my primary setup, and how it leads to profitable trades are all covered in this newsletter. Along with providing the day's workable trade plan, I also discuss how I've been managing my long since last week. Market cycles between Trend and Chop are common. Our 105-point rally last week was an extreme Trend, and it was followed by an untidy Chop as a base was being built. It's crucial to keep in mind that nobody can forecast intraday price movement, especially in Chop. When a setup triggers, a trader's responsibility is to respond and manage the trade using a predetermined procedure. Debt Ceiling Crisis The United States government is facing a debt ceiling crisis. The debt ceiling is a limit on the amount of money the government can borrow to pay its bills. The government is currently about $28 trillion in debt, and the debt ceiling is set to be reached on June 1. If the government does not raise the debt ceiling, it will be unable to pay its bills and will default on its debt. This would have a devastating impact on the economy, leading to a recession and a loss of jobs. Congress is currently negotiating a deal to raise the debt ceiling, but there is no agreement yet. The Republicans are demanding spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling, while the Democrats are refusing to make any cuts. The debt ceiling crisis is a major threat to the economy. It is important for Congress to reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible. Bond Yield Rates The yield on the 10-year Treasury note opened at 3.717% today. The rise in bond yields is due to concerns about the debt ceiling crisis and the prospect of higher inflation. Higher bond yields make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can slow down economic growth. They can also make it more expensive for consumers to borrow money, which can lead to a decline in spending. The rise in bond yields is a sign that investors are worried about the future of the economy. It is important to watch bond yields closely, as they can provide early warning signs of a recession. Key Structures Key market structures I'm tracking include: The pink triangle that contained all of last week's action pre-breakout A 2-day triangle since Friday The 4166-71 area The large broadening formation pattern in blue Due to ongoing debt ceiling negotiations, there is increased headline risk and risk of large, bi-directional moves out of nowhere. The Week-Long Triangle Structure This structure triggered the recent breakout. The market dynamics can be summarized as follows: Bulls control above the structure Bears control below the structure The back-test level is now 4140-42. The Yellow Uptrend Channel This structure, connecting the May 4th low and this week's low, is a crucial support area at around 4140-42. Bulls will want to hold this structure. Supports and resistances are listed, and I discuss potential bids and trade scenarios for both bull and bear cases. In summary, 4195-4220 is chop, and there is a heavy headline risk due to the debt ceiling. Support Levels As long as 4147 holds, we continue our upward trajectory. The 4140-42 area, derived from the triangle structure and the yellow uptrend channel, is an obvious structure bulls want to hold. 4205, 4195-97 (major), 4191, 4180, 4167-71 (major), 4155 (major), 4144, 4130-35 (major), 4123, 4112, 4097-4100 (major), 4092, 4077-80 (major), 4069, 4061, 4053 (major), 4041 (major), 4015-20 (major), 3995 (major) Resistance Levels Initial resistance was at 4192, acting as a magnet, as previously identified. According to the blue broadening formation, the next major resistance level is now at 4242. 4217-20 (major), 4231, 4240-42, 4248 (major), 4261 (major), 4268, 4280 (major), 4288, 4306 (major), 4319, 4325-30 (major), 4342. Trading Plan As long as 4195 holds, we keep filling out the triangle, targeting 4231, 4242+. If 4195 fails, we start the sell and I'd be looking to go short. Wrap Up Never fight the trend. Stay patient and adhere to your trading plan. Follow the key structures, resistance, and support levels closely. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro