Bought HBL POWER at 330.The technical chart looks quite bullish, and the fundamentals are also great.
Trendtrading
💡 AUDUSD : Signs of a downtrend➡️Yesterday, the D1 bar in AUDUSD witnessed a decrease, closing above the low of the same bar, initially indicating a false break and subsequently confirming this deceptive move. This implies a weakening stance for AUDUSD D1 near the upper boundary of the cumulative price range. The overall structure of AUDUSD D1 remains in a sideways movement.
➡️Although AUDUSD experienced a bounce, it retraced, forming a lower price peak. The H1 structure of AUDUSD shows a downward bias. If there is a rebound in the retest mentioned above, it presents a selling opportunity. Alternatively, if the price breaks higher and retests the previous peak, it might be prudent to adopt a wait-and-see approach for a potential buying opportunity.
💡 GBPUSD: Predicted November 17➡️On Thursday, GBP/USD continues its downward trend, making efforts to build positive momentum while consolidating slightly below the 89 and 34 EMA. If the losses intensify, a critical support level is identified at 1.2320. It is crucial to uphold this significant support to rekindle optimism for a continuous upward trend. Failing to maintain the price above this support level may lead to a decline towards the 1.2200 threshold.
Market Trending Up, but what about longer trends?Hey everyone! Sorry for being away for a bit, while we did follow my red graph down and I had shorted into some of that, I did not feel comfortable following it back up and went over to trade several 6E contracts instead. Not sure the income difference was much, but it felt like a safer trade following long term valuation of the Euro than hoping stocks regain levels never until the pandemic.
Full disclosure, I closed out my 6E contracts towards the end of Tuesday, and am sitting in NO current position right now, so it is easy for me to talk about the market with no skin in the game.
That being said, let's dive into things. Here are the trends as we are in the middle of today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESZ Contract)
30m - 4524 Uptrend (11/16/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4391 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4412 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4412 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4424 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4260 Uptrend (11/1/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4319 Uptrend (11/2/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4244 Downtrend (10/16/2023) Lower Low
On a short term and medium-term basis, things are very much trending upward. Based on the short sentiment in the market, I think we won't push too much higher, and could even run back down to around 4420ish as I think lots of people went short going into Tuesday's CPI data and are going to be holding their positions to try and minimalize their losses if they didn't practice good risk management.
I go into a concern on this upward movement in the video, but ultimately I am concerned that we had our first lower low downtrend EVER on a Weekly analysis for trends. I'm not saying that it will take us lower, I am saying it has never happened before. Every downtrend signal we ever had prior has always been a higher low downtrend. As long as we stay above 4462 when the last uptrend signaled (week of June 6, 2023) we are above and looking to signal a higher high uptrend, but anything below that to me shows we could be headed into a sideways or even long term downtrend market for the first time ever. Or... like I said it has never happened so maybe it means nothing, as there is no historical data to look at.
My current outlook is;
I just plan to sit and watch for potentially the rest of this week and maybe decide Monday on a position, unless I take a short term trade for just over Friday but will likely close out before the weekend. I may even continue to look for other areas of the market to invest in.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
USDT/BTC Speculative Trading IdeaBelow is a speculative trading idea for the BTC/USDT pair.
As of writing, there’s a consolidation and price chart compression towards the established local resistance level at a price of $35,195, following an impulsive 31% price increase from $26,794 with a rebound from the 50-day moving average.
Within the framework of this idea, we propose to consider the possibility of buying BTC at a price of $35,195.
We do so with the aim of continuing the BTC price rise towards the resistance zone located near the POC volume level, corresponding to the trading range of the first half of 2022. The approximate target for this trade is $38,440.
An additional factor supporting this decision is the cumulative delta, indicating sustained buyer interest. The potential for this trade is estimated at 9%, with a stop-loss set at the 3% level, which amounts to $34,100.
💡 XAUUSD: Reversal after PPI news➡️This morning, the global gold price experienced a reversal, declining in response to the recent announcement from the US economy. The October Producer Price Index (PPI) reported a significant decrease, showing a 1.3% increase over the same period last year. This figure was notably lower than the anticipated 1.9%, and it marked a decline from the 2.2% increase observed in the previous month.
➡️The PPI index, a key metric reflecting changes in prices of goods sold by manufacturers, serves as a leading indicator for overall consumer price inflation. This suggests a forthcoming decrease in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the United States. The effective implementation of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy tightening is expected to persist.
➡️Earlier, on November 14, the US disclosed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October exhibited a 3.2% increase compared to the same period last year. This represented a more significant decline from September's 3.7% increase and was slightly below the projected 3.3%. Notably, this marks the lowest level since March 2021.
💡 XAUUSD: Strong increase thanks to CPIThe significant surge in prices occurred following the release of last night's CPI news, establishing a fresh high for gold in the first half of the year and sustaining its upward trajectory. At present, the price is approaching a resistance level, presenting an opportunity to either wait for a pullback to initiate a purchase or observe for a potential breakthrough of the peak, followed by a robust upward movement and subsequent retesting. It's important to be mindful that surpassing the upper boundary could result in an overbought scenario, increasing the likelihood of a price retracement with potential challenges in sustaining the upward momentum.
💡 GBPUSD: Nice scenario for downtrend➡️The latest data indicates a significant decline in the UK's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate, dropping from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October. This marks the lowest figure in two years, falling below the consensus estimates of 4.8%. The notable decrease in CPI reflects a downward trend in inflation, primarily attributed to the impact compared to the same period last year and a decrease in energy prices.
➡️This development suggests that there is potential for the central bank to initiate interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. However, the decision hinges on various factors, including the strength of the labor market and the overall economic conditions.
➡️In response to the released data indicating a more substantial than expected cooling of UK inflation in October, there is a possibility of a decline in GBP/USD. This further reinforces expectations that the Bank of England may implement interest rate cuts by the middle of the next year. Observations on the H4 chart reveal the GBP/USD price approaching the 48-hour moving average, and the MACD histogram bar contracting, indicating potential market adjustments.
#AUDCAD Bearish structureHello dear friends and traders. Let's take a look at AUDCAD and explore the potential selling opportunity in this pair.
As seen in the chart, we have a 4-hour bearish market structure where the price is creating lower highs and lower lows. Consequently, we are only interested in taking short positions for the moment.
After the price formed a recent low, it started to develop a bullish corrective move that ended up testing our bearish trendline, coinciding with a static resistance area. Now, if you examine the 1-hour timeframe chart , you'll notice that the price attempted to go above our horizontal arrow line but failed to close above it. This suggests that the recent bullish move could be considered a liquidity-taking activity, and now that the price failed to close above, we may consider opening a sell position.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
#AUDJPY buying opportunityLet's take a look at the AUDJPY 4-hour timeframe chart and explore the potential buying opportunity in this pair.
Price yesterday successfully broke above the short-term bearish channel, aligning with the higher timeframe market structure, which adds to the possibility of the price intending to move higher.
Currently, the price is situated at today's Pivot area, which has been providing support since this morning. Additionally, we are above the 1-hour, 30-minute, and 15-minute EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) of 200, all of which together offer crucial support for the price.
Moreover, this recent bearish move can be interpreted as a pullback to the broken channel line.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
#EURGBP selling opportunityEURGBP exhibits a valid bearish market structure in the 1-hour timeframe, as illustrated in the chart. This structure begins after the price tested an important daily resistance and was subsequently rejected.
With this ongoing bearish move, we are inclined to take sell positions in this pair as long as the current structure persists.
Upon closer examination, the price tested the bearish trendline and formed a 1-hour engulfing candlestick pattern . When combined with the preceding candles, it resulted in an evening star candlestick pattern.
The occurrence of this pattern within a resistance area enhances the likelihood of its significance.
The formation of this pattern leaves us with a clean-break area, which serves as an important supply zone where traders may consider selling this pair.
Additional bearish confluences include the price testing the 1-hour and 30-minute 200 EMA.
For selling this pair, the optimal area to place your stop-loss would be above the previous high. If the price reaches that point, it indicates the end of the bearish trend, and we would then be dealing with a bullish trend.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
💡 EURUSD: Strong increase after many accumulation sessionsFollowing several sessions of accumulation, EURUSD has experienced a robust rebound in the recent session, currently exceeding the targeted price range near the upper boundary of the ascending price channel. Profitable buying positions have been secured, yet the price momentum remains robust, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend. Traders may consider selling during price adjustments or buying at pullback levels.
#GBPCHF buying opportunityHello dear traders and friends, let's take a look at this chart and explore the potential buying opportunity.
As observed in the chart, we have a clear bullish market structure. Therefore, as long as the price remains above our horizontal arrow, which marks the 1-hour timeframe low in the market, as well as the previous day's low, we are interested in taking long positions.
In addition to the market structure, other confluences include the price being above the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframe EMAs, and above the 4-hour timeframe bullish trendline. This recent bearish move could also be viewed as a pullback to the bullish trendline, as indicated in the chart.
With the market structure in our favor and supported by a cluster of bullish confluences, we have sufficient confidence to open a long position in this pair.
I'll place my stop-loss just below the arrow line because if the price is able to go lower than that, it would signify a break in the structure to the downside.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
💡 AUDUSD: Next predictionAUDUSD demonstrated a remarkable recovery in the recent session, nearly recovering all losses incurred over the preceding four sessions. The upward momentum in prices is notably robust. Anticipate further upward movement in the price. It is advisable to adjust stop losses (SLs) and maintain existing buying positions. Breaking the 0.65 threshold would serve as a confirmation signal for the market. In the event of a successful breakthrough, there is a potential for a reversal, with the target being the upper boundary of the long-term descending price channel, providing an opportunity to consider buying positions.
💡 XAUUSD: Unbreakable 1930Have a good day , all Trader !!!
Gold retested 1930 after the last trading session. However Gold cannot break it
Then it turned around and rose again. The current increase we can expect is in the 1960 - 1966 area. You can watch to sell early in 1958 - 1960. Or you can wait to buy at the price range of 1930. There is also a good Buy signal there. Stop loss is necessary
💡 GBPUSD: The upward momentum is consolidatedFollowing the establishment of a bullish pattern near the 1.2200 support zone, GBPUSD is experiencing a resurgence in bullish momentum. Our current stance maintains buy positions based on earlier signals of a bullish reversal, including the double bottom pattern and the price breaking through the existing structure. It is advisable to retain these positions with the target set around 1.2400.
💡 GBPUSD: Reversal signs appearFollowing four consecutive bearish sessions, the downward trend has come to a halt around the 1.2200 region. A slight bullish indication, represented by a dragonfly doji pattern, has emerged. This, coupled with earlier notable reversal signals such as the double bottom pattern and the breach of the bearish structure, suggests a potential resurgence of upward momentum. It is advisable to maintain your existing long positions, with the target remaining in the vicinity of 1.2600.
💡 AUDUSD: Impacted by increased interest ratesThe Australian economy is facing significant challenges due to the rising domestic interest rates, placing immense strain on its economic stability. Despite ongoing global economic uncertainties, Australia has been unable to evade the repercussions, leading to a continuous decline in the Australian dollar over the past five trading days. Despite the apparent stern stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in its policy, investors remain skeptical, providing minimal support to the Australian dollar. Many are unconvinced of the likelihood of an actual interest rate hike, with consensus suggesting that such a move is improbable until at least May, two years from now.
Recent trends in the AUD/USD pair indicate a potential bottoming out followed by a rebound. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has displayed a golden cross formation beneath the zero axis and is now trending towards the 48-hour moving average. However, the future trajectory of the Australian dollar remains contingent on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. Should the data bolster the US dollar, it is anticipated that the Australian dollar will continue its downward trajectory.
💡GOLDOZ: It's on a steep declineGold prices retraced after testing the resistance level at 1960, further validating earlier signals of a potential reversal. Today, several exchanges observed dips below the 1920 region. Upon inspection, I noticed that the FTMO fund also experienced this dip, but it wasn't reflected in the charts from Forex.com and OANDA. Despite acknowledging this anomaly, we choose not to factor it into our analysis at the moment.
As of now, our short positions remain active, and the overall market conditions still favor our strategy. It is advisable to maintain current positions, with the short-term target remaining around 1900. To mitigate risks, you may contemplate adjusting the stop-loss (SL).
Netflix Surges 28% Since Q3 EarningsNetflix's stock in 2021 has been a rollercoaster, starting with a strong 62% rise by July, nearing the $500 mark, before experiencing a sharp downturn. The stock fell below the crucial 200-day moving average to around $370, marking a significant 28% drop, but found some support at the weekly 50-day average near $350.
The Q3 earnings report was a turning point, with actual earnings of $3.73 surpassing the estimated $3.49. This led to a positive market reaction, with the stock opening 16% higher post-announcement and climbing 28% since then. The surge in earnings was primarily due to robust subscriber growth, a key indicator of the company's future financial health and stock potential.
Looking ahead, Netflix faces major resistance levels, first at the $500 psychological mark, and then at last year's high of $609. Overcoming these barriers could signal further bullish trends. As of November, the stock is showing strong performance with an 8% increase, adding to the positive outlook among investors.
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💡 EURUSD: Any opportunities for SellSellers in the EURUSD market have not managed to breach the 1.065 support level, indicating that the upward momentum could be a sign of a reversal, and there's a possibility of a return to a bullish structure. If you currently hold a buying position, you may consider maintaining it. Additionally, it might be worth contemplating adding to your position if the price surpasses the 1.0720 resistance level.
💡 GBPUSD: Next prediction➡️ The anticipation for a reduction in interest rates by the Bank of England in 2024 remains steady, albeit now leaning towards a decrease of approximately 75 basis points. The central bank appears intent on tempering exaggerated market expectations regarding a forthcoming interest rate cut. Given that the enduring impacts of previous interest rate hikes have yet to permeate the economy, there is an anticipation of subdued economic growth in the future. This is expected to provide considerable support for the pound; however, the immediate trajectory of UK government bond yields remains uncertain.
➡️ Observing the GBP/USD pair, it is evident that the currency continues its downward fluctuations following a recovery, currently tracking below the 48-hour moving average on the H4 chart. Concurrently, the MACD double line and histogram bar display a downward momentum expansion around the zero axis once again, indicating a continued short-term decline for GBP/USD.
