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US10Y

Macro - Risk is Very HighIdea for Macro: - Credit Cycle turned down from top of Risk Range. - Global Credit Impulse negative, US Systemic Liquidity Flows turning down, Fed Balance Sheet 5yr avg. at top of risk range. - Demand-push Inflation at top of risk range, in 40 year downtrend. - Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility reaching a critical level. - PC ratio reaching low levels (signals investor complacency). - SKEW at an ATH. Perceived Tail Risk is at an ATH. Speculate a correction in equities this Summer, then a large correction EOY-Q1 2022. GLHF - DPT
TVC:US30YShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
5
FB: Potential Upside to 360?FB is channeling up nicely and showing potential upside to 360 where the upper band of the channel is sitting as of today, which would imply a new ATH, of course. We have downside to around 300 where we should see notable support. If we lose 300, we still have channel support currently sitting around 285. This is a pretty persistent trend, so I don't expect much deviation outside of a shift in sentiment, which of course could be brought on by a number of factors, not the least of which is logic...
NASDAQ:META
by Hedge_Of_The_World
US10Y Direction Will Influence NAS100The US10Y started trending up in February. This adversely affected the NAS100 as growth stocks started to feel the pinch of higher discount rates. The 10-Yr reached a high of around 1.75% at the end of March and then began to pull back (red vertical). This supported the NAS100 and growth stocks in general at first, but yields started to drift and the NAS100 followed. However, from 3rd June (blue horizontal), yields started to decline. Again this has supported the NAS100, which charted an all-time high yesterday. Currently, the correlation coefficient is sitting at -0.88, which shows a strong inverse relationship. Tomorrow's Fed decision is likely to have a large influence on the direction of the 10-Yr and as such growth stocks, through their discount rate adjustment.
TVC:US10Y
by FXCM
1
The Economic Cycle: Painting The Full Picture. This is a very complex topic but I will try to keep it as simple as possible. This whole story began when the US government printed money to help the economy going and the reserve bank infused money into the market by buying back bonds. These actions did help for a while and the stock market recovered from March 2020 mini-crash, but that printed money caused the dollar index to drop significantly. Consequently, the price of commodities kept rising. After a while, people started to worry that all those printed money are going to cause huge inflation. Therefore, they started dropping bonds showing their lack of confidence in the economy causing the yields to go up. They instead bought Bitcoin to maintain the value of their money and hedge against a possible crash. That was a good choice because with a limited supply and a high demand Bitcoin acted like gold and went straight up beating other asset classes in returns. After the election and reopening of the economy, the feds persisted that this inflation is transitory. There are many reasons why they say that including stable inflation expectations, disinflationary technologies, and so on. Due to a phenomenon called “cultural lag” investors believed the feds after a while and when June’s CPI report came out, they almost didn’t react to a whopping 3.5% inflation rate. This week at the FOMC meeting everyone expects to hear the same thing because Jerome Powell has been pretty consistent with what the feds are going to do in the case inflation got out of hand. They see economic growth in such good health that they are going to start tapering. Unlike, 2013, this tapering is expected to be a relief and lead to a massive bull market. That said, inflation is going to be around for a couple of years but in the long run, it should go down. And feds are going to stay consistent with their plan to help the economy stabilize over the tapering period. But what does it all have to do with Bitcoin? A stable economy doesn’t need gold or bitcoin because people would rather have a stable ROI in a productive economy than having their funds held in a volatile asset with a risk of losing 40% of it in a matter of a month. Of course, the economy won’t stay stable forever and new struggles will come along our way. Whether it’s due to presidential cycles or bitcoin halving or other events, there will be a day that bitcoin will worth 400k. There is still much to be discussed here, so please feel free to share your thoughts and comment your analysis. How do you think FOMC meeting is going to affect the market? Are we going to have another Taper Tantrum? Thanks
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarkitMaven
13
US10 Year Yields not correlated to BitcoinI keep reading on Trading View that US Ten Year yields are going to fall to 1.2% and this means Bitcoin is going to go back up. Take a look at the chart - there is little correlation between US 10 year yield rates and the price of Bitcoin. A 50% correlation at best and even if this was higher, correlation doesn't imply causation. Just because Bitcoin has softened while there has been a softening in yields this year - that doesn't make them either correlated or causated. Bitcoin is going to do what Bitcoin is going to do. 10 Year Yields are going to rise based on i) implied taper talk/rate rising by the Fed because of ii) Implied US GDP Recovery/Growth iii) Jobs Recovery
TVC:US10Y
by majicktrader
2
Head and Shouders on US10Y DAILY - neckline brokenA head and shoulders formed on the US10Y Daily chart and the neckline was broken. US10Y is now heading lower which should provide as a push higher for Precious Metals, notably #XAUUSD and #XAGUSD. If US10Y and break 1.52 watch out for a strong push higher both of the Metals. DXY looks weak and has tried to rally repeatedly only to be rejected lower every time. If the DXY joins the US10Y and US30Y lower , then Gold and Silver will begin higher and look to break to new levels. $1930, $1965 and pierce through $2000 and then run to a new ATH whereas $30 is the level needed to forge higher, eventually to $42 with overshoots even to $50, before a pullback and consolidation, The next level will be $70 towards the back end of the year or higher. I think there is a distinct possibility SILVER will overshoot and run past $70 and then consolidate as it hs been suppressed for much longer and has built up a sizeable head of steam. LOOK TO JUMP ON THE SILVER MINERS BANDWAGON.
TVC:US10YLong
by TheBathymetry
Futures Flat, Investors Brace for Thursday's Inflation DataUS Futures traded relatively flat on Monday morning with the S&P up 0.01% to 4,228.75 (sitting just below the ATH), the Dow up 0.14% to 34,790, the Nasdaq down 0.10% to 13,753, and the Russell down 0.01% to 2,286.40 as of 8AM. The US10Y yield fell back to 1.58%, while the dollar (DXY) traded flat at 90.12. We saw another mini flash crash in Vix this morning (similar to June 1st) around 7AM, which saw Vix test a low of 15.78 before quickly bouncing back to 16.66. Over the weekend we saw the G7 come to an agreement on a 15% minimum corporate tax rate, which is expected to be rolled out to the G20 soon. Enforcement of the accord is another story, of course. Yesterday Yellen said she isn't concerned about higher inflation or higher rates in the near future, adding that they're "good for the Fed and US society." Clearly she doesn't understand how the market works and what will happen to asset valuations when the cost of debt rises; don't forget - Yellen was the one who said just a few years ago in 2017 that she doesn't think we'll see another financial crisis in our lifetimes. Needless to say, I don't place too much emphasis on anything she, or Powell for that matter, says. Later on today around 3PM we'll get the consumer credit report for April, which is expected to fall from the prior print of $25.8B to $22B. But, the main event this week is going to be the US consumer price report on Thursday, which based on the recent spike in used car prices, could reveal a shockingly high print, causing panic over the possibility of hyperinflation/stagflation as early as this year. The Fed, of course, will come out and say it's transitory as rapidly and as many times as possible following the print. That we can be certain of, as they're nothing more than a PR firm for Wall Street imo. Lastly, Bitcoin bulls are cheering on El Salvador President, Nayib Bukele, for advocating for Bitcoin this weekend in Miami at the largest Bitcoin conference to date, as a legal form of tender for the country. However, according to Goldman, 35% of Hedge Funds (25 CIO's from various hedge funds) see Bitcoin as their "least favorite" investment, while Growth was the "most favorite." Bank of America's global fund manager survey revealed that "long Bitcoin" was the most crowded trade on Wall Street (no surprise there). We're currently sitting at $36,651 and up around 2.35% on the day. I see us potentially retesting the 200DMA in the near term, before a continuation of the downtrend toward $20k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
Futures Sink as Russia's SWF Ditches the DollarGlobal futures are experiencing some weakness this morning after yesterday's rollercoaster ride saw us rise persistently in the morning session, only to be hammered from noon until around 2PM, to then be panic bid into the close once again. The Dow is trading down -0.51% to 34,412, the S&P is down -0.62% to 4,180.38, the Nasdaq is down -0.88% to 13,553, and the Russell is down -0.81% to 2,278.25. Headlines are circling the financial media this morning after Russia released a statement that they'll be cutting the dollar from their sovereign wealth fund, replacing it with other core SDR fiats (Euro, Yuan), as well as gold. Vix is seeing a notable bid off the week's low's and is back at 18.8 resistance and up just under 12% on the day. We need to recapture the 21 level for another potential test of the descending trendline around 28. The Dollar (DXY) has recaptured 90 support, and is currently sitting at 90.24 as of 9AM. Clearly we're seeing liquidation across asset classes. But, the dollar gains never stick for long these days. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is up over 4% on the day and sitting just under 40,000, while Gold is off the recent high's and trading back at 1,881. No major moves in the bond market to speak of as the US10Y yield drifts sideways at 1.60%. As far as memes go, AMC is tanking back to a 59 handle after hitting a high of 72.62 yesterday. Holy shit, we closed up 95% on the day. I've never seen anything like it. The company is a hollow zombie with too much debt on the books. Cinemas are closed, and who knows what their future revenue will look like. But, that doesn't stop the army of retail traders who are throwing every dollar they can at the highest beta stocks they can find. GME had a nice breakout of the triangle a couple weeks ago, and is up 27% on the week. We could be looking at a similar scenario to AMC unfolding, which potentially provides an opportunity to short these pieces of garbage back to unch at the first sign of a shift in sentiment. Economic Data: Finally, Jobless claims came in at 385k vs the 395k expected, and continuing claims rose to 3.771MM vs the 3.642MM expected. The ADP employment change rose by 978k vs the 675k expected, however the real headline here is that over 15 Million American's are still on some form of government employment benefits. We'll see the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May at 10AM, and Crude Inventories at 11AM. Our live anaysis begins at 9:30AM. * I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
Black Swan - The End of a Force-Fed Credit CycleIdea for US10Y, Credit Cycle, and Equities: The Bottom Line: - There is no monetary inflation, because the money created does not enter the economy... however there is credit inflation because credit is created with that money as collateral. - There is PRICE inflation, ASSET inflation, CREDIT inflation, NO monetary inflation, oil deflation. - When credit can no longer inflate, credit inflators will begin to sell assets so that they can redeem their asset appreciation for money to redeem for the debt they have lent or borrowed. Where is the money that was injected into the economy? Where did it come from? Who loses here? YOU! The money created from high salaries caused by the speculative asset bubble, and the middle class who invest their hard-earned dollars into the asset bubble, creating more jobs and easy money, which is in turn invested back into the bubble for effortless paper wealth... The inflated prices you pay for food, education, housing, health care... When credit inflators decide to redeem their asset appreciation. It all returns to ashes. - During the collapse of a credit bubble, governments will sell off bonds in a frenzy, because there is too much supply. GLHF - DPT Allies — the strongest and truest in the world: underlying conditions - Jesse Livermore
TVC:US10YLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
9