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Silver in Dollar strength's shadowXAGUSD, H4 and Daily By Andria Pichidi - November 12, 2018 Recent US data, such as last Friday's hot PPI numbers, and the Fed's policy guidance following last week's FOMC meeting, have fanned expectations for a resumption in Fed tightening at December's policy meeting, which has underpinned the US currency. The USDIndex has gained 0.5% in posting a 17-month high of 97.38, while EURUSD has concurrently printed a 16-month low of 1.1268 and USDJPY a 6-week high at 114.20. This drags commodities to week lows, with Silver futures near $14.10, on USDIndex strength, despite the risk-off theme. The Chinese economy, which is slowing faster than expected amid growing risk that the country will have to backstop its economy with further measures to slow the outgoing tide, risking increased debt to do so, has underpinned commodities as well. On Friday, the XAGUSD confirmed a close below the descending triangle set since June and the up-channel formed since end of September. This decisive move below the 2-month Support at around $14.20-14.22 area, and as the pair remains below this barrier so far today, assured the switch from neutral to negative outlook. According to the momentum indicators, the market could maintain negative momentum in the short-term as the RSI flattened below 30, while the MACD oscillator posted a bearish crossover with its signal line in the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, the MAs formed a bearish cross, with both 20-and 50-period MA crossing below 200-period MA. In the daily timeframe, XAGUSD’s picture is neutral to negative as RSI sloped below neutral, whilst MACD turned negative with signal line consolidating around neutral zone. As the asset confirmed a leg below $14.20 on Friday, the market could retest the next hurdle at the round $14.00 level, but more precisely September’s low at $13.93. In the wake of more negative momentum, the next level in focus could be at the 2-year low of $13.73. To the upside immediate Resistance holds at $14.22, and the medium term at 20-day SMA at $14.50. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer:  This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDShort
by HotForex
EurJpy. A revisit of old levels with new perspectives.On Oct 5, did an analysis on Eurjpy where the trade was triggered only 3 days later. From execution to achieving the exact Target profit was a total of 8 days. They always ask what will you do differently if you get to relive your live again or if you are young again? But the interesting thing about trading is that you get to relive redo and reenact your beliefs and mindsets within hours, days and weeks The only difference is that every trade is a new trade. Do not remember the previous winning or losing trade. Focus on the task at hand. It's a NEW trade.Full-s Key levels to formulate one's trading will be at 130.60 and 129 levels. Other levels is a waste of time.
by revelationtrading
Capacity Utilization and Industrial ProductionAhead of the data releases today, this post elaborates on why these indicators matter for the economy and what exactly they show. To begin with, Capacity Utilization refers to how much of available production ability has been used in the past month as a percentage of the total production ability. Naturally, the higher the Capacity Utilization rate used, the better for the economy given that it is reaching better levels of production and is producing more goods. In essence, the closer Capacity Utilization is to 100%, the more the economy is producing and does not leave economic resources sitting idle and hence the higher the inflation rate should be. A simple statistical exercise suggests that Capacity Utilization has a small but positive effect on inflation. Thus, Capacity Utilization also matters for monetary policy, given that if it is low, then inflation is likely to have been subdued and will likely continue to remain at low levels. This, combined with high unemployment levels can signify the rise of deflation risks. In addition, a large excess capacity suggests that no significant investment is needed in order to boost the economy and hence stimulus should suffice. For example, the drop to 66% in 2009 suggested that additional capacity was available and pumping money into the economy via fiscal policy should have worked. In combination with Capacity Utilization, the Index of Industrial Production measures the volume of goods produced by various industrial firms such as factories, mines, utilities, and publishing. The Index is set to be 100 in 2012 and hence Industrial Production is essentially compared not only to the last period (via the growth rate) but with the 2012 level. The Index assists Central Banks understand how industrial production has fared over the previous period, while it also allows us to observe whether the increase in inflation is also coupled with an increase in industrial production and hence can be attributed to demand or supply sources. If prices are increasing without industrial production moving, then we can expect that price changes are not due to demand factors. On the other hand, if industrial production increases, we can expect that demand-side inflation will also be increased in the future. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
TVC:DXY
by HotForex
USDCHF: Time for a retracement soon ?The usdchf hit a low of 0.9540 before retracing to 0.9960 . That's a whopping 460 pip of retracement. Thus what's the revelation? U can never be too sure about the extent of how much a currency pair would retrace and if (surprise surprise) it could eventually even start an uptrend on its own. Such is the reality. The analysis is as good as it gets at the point of time but making provisions for different scenarios to play out and all the stop checks the trader has put in place to ensure that the analysis is still on track is essential for survival in any market. Thus in the case of the usdchf, with key levels taken out at 0.9890 and 0.9850 it actually opens the door to lower supports at 0.9790 and 0.97 being revisited again. However, with the longer term trendline at 0.97 holding at the moment, this is at best a retracement to Revelation Trading at the moment. We ultimately trade into the unknown and as usual the market will show us where it eventually wants to go.
Short
by revelationtrading
THE PRODUCER PRICE INDEX AND THE MARKETSThe Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. In other words, the PPI measures the prices offered to manufacturers of goods and services, in contrast to the CPI which measures the prices consumers (end-users) pay to obtain the good or service. The prices included in the PPI measure the first commercial transaction for products and services. This was the main reason for compiling such an Index in the first place, i.e. to measure price changes in goods sold in primary markets before they reached the final stage of production at the retail market level. Overall, the PPI is another indicator of the purchasing power of money and is an important tool in the design and conduct of monetary and fiscal policy. As you can guess, an increase in the PPI would signal that sellers are obtaining higher prices for their products and services and as a result, producers have either chosen to increase their price margins or they are witnessing higher demand for their products and services. To confirm which of the two holds we need to observe the CPI inflation over the past months. If the CPI inflation is in line with the PPI inflation, then we can confirm that price increases are due to higher demand and not because of higher margins. Even in the case of higher margins, the PPI serves an important cause: if producer prices have increased due to higher margins then we can expect that CPI prices (i.e consumer prices) will also be increasing in the future. Hence, the PPI can also serve as a proxy of future inflation. The rationale in regard to how the PPI affects stock and currency markets is similar to the usual CPI. If the PPI figure is higher than expected then firms are expected to generate higher profits, hence the stock market should rise. In contrast, if the PPI is lower than expected, the stock market should drop. Regarding the stock market, if the currency market expects a high PPI growth rate, then the currency should depreciate. Otherwise, if PPI is higher than expected and abides with the CPI path the currency should rise. Note though that the reactions should be much smaller compared to CPI ones, for the simple reason that the PPI is viewed as a precursor of the CPI. This prediction is supported by the market behaviour on September 12, 2018. The PPI came out less than expected, at 2.3%, compared to expectations of 2.7%. This prompted a negative reaction in the FX market, as the Dollar Index dropped by 5 pips. Similarly, the USA500 also dropped by 1 point on the announcement. While the market moved in the expected direction, the price volatility was not as large as in the CPI case. DR. Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
TVC:DXY
by HotForex
$EURUSD | Updated Long Term AnalysisHello Traders, In this chart, I have defined Monthly and Weekly Support and Resistance Zones. The reason I define the time frame of S&R is because the higher time frames hold more strength. The reason for this is because there are larger institutional players in the markets at these levels and in some cases, governments and central banks. With that said, here are the steps my model has outlined for this market: 1. A pullback up to test the Weekly Resistance Zone (1.22466-1.23647). This move is a correction of the move down to the Monthly Support Zone. 2. A continuation of the move down to the Monthly Support Zone (1.10223-1.07625). This move is a correction of the move up starting in Jan 2017. 3. Once the Monthly Support Zone is tested, the EUR will continue its move up beyond the Weekly Resistance Zone and on its way to TG 1-4 outlined on the chart. These targets are defined on a Monthly Time Frame. Please refer to the related chart below for a closer look at this current move down. Best
Long
by GWaves
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