USDJPY: 1H Rising Wedge approaching its top.USDJPY is almost overbought on its 1H technical outlook (RSI = 69.322, MACD = 0.160, ADX = 19.927) as the price is approaching the top (HH) of the 10 day Rising Wedge. A 74.00 RSI has been the most optimal sell signal during the three past highs to start shorting. Wait for the opportunity and target the 0.5 Fib at least (TP = 149.645) as it has been the minimum target during the last two bearish waves.
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USDJPY
USDJPY a bit choppy but still traded above 150.000 key level.Despite USDJPY chopping around the 149.000 key level, the pair has already traded back above 150.000 key level as highlighted in our earlier post yesterday. Retail sales was the key driver of volatility today. The dollar strength persisted sending the pair higher. The pair now looks forward to clear 150.500 level before the daily candle closes.
Dollar Index Bullish to $109! (UPDATE)The Dollar is moving ridiculously bullish for the past 3 weeks. Exactly how I said it would move to my Gold Fund investors, in our Q4 Market Breakdown report.
The U.S. elections is less than 4 weeks away & I'm expecting Dollar bulls to hold up during the elections, with all the volatility we will see in the markets.
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 17, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is down to 149.400 despite the US Dollar (USD) strengthening during Asian trading on Thursday. Later on Thursday, US retail sales data will come to the fore, which is estimated to rise to 0.3% in September from 0.1% in the previous reading.
The US economic data showed a resilient economy, with inflation rising slightly more than expected in September. This, in turn, could boost the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen (JPY). LSEG calculations put the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in November at nearly 100%, while the probability of the Fed pausing and keeping the federal funds rate in the target range of 4.75-5.0% is just 0.2%.
Nevertheless, ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election could strengthen safe-haven flows, which would favor the yen. A plan for Israel's response to an Iranian attack this month is ready, CNN reported. U.S. officials expect it to happen before the U.S. presidential election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said separately that Israel opposes a “unilateral ceasefire” in the war with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
On Friday, investors await national consumer price index (CPI) data for September for a fresh boost. The CPI excluding fresh food is expected to fall to 2.3% in September from 2.8% in August.
Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 150.000, when fixing above consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.
USDJPY What Next? BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USDJPY below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 149.19
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 149.54
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USD/JPY SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
USD/JPY pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is clearly rising on the 1D timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 144.420 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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USDJPY H1 | Bullish BounceBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 148.64, which is a pullback support that aligns with 50% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 149.44, an overlap resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 147.91, which is a pullback support level aligns with 78.6% Fibo retracement,.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bearish reversal?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 149.51
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 150.33
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 148.42
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Traders could veer towards the yen with risk events loomingIt is no coincidence that VIX futures have been creeping higher in recent weeks despite Wall Street hitting record highs, as traders are presumably hedging downside risk as we approach the US election. And that means it may not take much to spook traders out of bullish bets with markets at frothy levels, and that could see the yen strengthen as a safety play. Matt Simpson takes a technical look at yen pairs of interest.
USD/JPY Remains Strong as JPY Struggles for Upside The USD/JPY pair continued its upward trend on Tuesday, maintaining strength despite limited upside potential for the Japanese Yen (JPY). The JPY's inability to gain ground is largely attributed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate-hike plans. Coupled with a generally positive risk tone in the markets, this has kept the JPY, traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, from making any meaningful gains.
US Data and Market Outlook
Tuesday’s economic calendar for the US is relatively quiet, with no major data releases expected. However, the spotlight will turn to Thursday’s key economic reports, which include the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims. These reports are expected to inject more volatility into the market and could influence the trajectory of the US Dollar and other major currency pairs, including USD/JPY.
Given the strength of the USD near its two-month peak, the upcoming data could further support the dollar, limiting any potential upside for the lower-yielding JPY. The US Dollar's resilience continues to exert pressure on the JPY, keeping the pair on a bullish path.
Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Targeting 152.000
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair appears poised to extend its rally, with a potential target around the 152.000 level. This area could be reached following the release of the key US economic reports on Thursday, which may provide the necessary momentum for further gains.
The technical outlook is supported by the broader strength of the USD and the lack of strong upside drivers for the JPY. The chart of JPY futures also reflects the challenging environment for the Yen, signaling continued weakness.
Chart Overview: JPY Futures Chart
As shown in the chart, the JPY remains under pressure in the futures market, further confirming our outlook for continued USD/JPY strength.
Strategy: Patience is Key
After successfully closing our previous USD/JPY trade in profit, we are now waiting for a more favorable area to enter a new position. With key economic data on the horizon, patience remains essential as we await clearer signals from the market.
In conclusion, the USD/JPY pair is likely to maintain its bullish trend in the near term, with a potential target of 152.000. The combination of US Dollar strength and uncertainty surrounding the BoJ’s rate policy should keep the Yen on the defensive, at least until there are clearer indications of future central bank actions. For now, we remain on the sidelines, waiting for the next opportunity to re-enter the market.
PREVIOUS CLOSED POSITION:
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USDJPY Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 149.346.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 150.396 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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EURUSD - 4H Bullish signsThe OANDA:EURUSD pair is currently positioned for potential bullish momentum, especially as the weakening of the US dollar becomes more evident. Technically, the EURUSD is showing signs of recovery, as the downward momentum appears to be weakening, and the price has reached a strong support zone. The recent decline in the USD due to a softer US jobs report, coupled with expectations of dovish action from the Federal Reserve, provides further support for a possible upward move in FX:EURUSD .
Additionally, with the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to take further action, possibly through a rate cut in mid-October, market sentiment around the Euro remains cautiously optimistic. If the pair breaks above the next resistance levels, the outlook for a continued rise seems strong, as the price aims for 1.1010 or higher. This aligns well with the technical analysis, where the support zone indicates a potential bounce in the coming sessions.
USDJPY - 4H Sell SetupFX:USDJPY is displaying a clear technical setup for a bearish move. After a significant pullback following a sharp fall, the pair failed to surpass the resistance zone around 149. This area has proven strong as the price action was unable to hold above it, trapping liquidity just above the resistance. The price then rejected this zone with a sharp reversal. Additionally, the second attempt to break through the resistance further confirms the weakness, as liquidity hunting above the resistance has been met with selling pressure. This rejection, combined with the failed breakout, suggests the pair is likely to fall towards the lower targeted support zone, potentially setting up a strong shorting opportunity in the near term.
This aligns with fundamental factors, including expectations of slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Japan faces a cautious stance on raising interest rates, which has kept the yen under pressure. However, recent economic data from Japan, such as rising producer prices and decreased lending activity, suggests a shift may be underway, supporting further yen strength and a potential fall in USDJPY.
Traders should watch for a continuation of this move, as the failed attempts to breach resistance and the liquidity grab signal further downside pressure.
USD/JPY – Breakout of Resistance TrendlineWe have just broken out of the resistance trendline on USD/JPY. If you're currently short, I recommend reducing your position as the price approaches the green zone.
For those without a position, it might be wise to wait for the price to reach this green zone before considering a long entry. However, always wait for confirmation before entering long positions to ensure a higher probability of success.
USD/JPY H4 | Strong bullish uptrendUSD/JPY is trading close to the intersection between an ascending trendline and a pullback support; it could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 149.39 which is a pullback support that intersects with an ascending trendline.
Stop loss is at 148.30 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 150.86 which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.