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Usdjpyshort

USDJPY Shorts to 146.800My bias for this pair is very much so bullish due to the fact that price has entered the last (8hr) supply zone of the chart. Not only has it swept so much liquidity, but the initial rejection ended up causing a change of character to the downside on the 4hr time frame. As we can clearly see wyckoff distribution play out, there have been nice POI's left for us to enter sell positions from, like the 15min unmitigated supply at the top or the 17hr supply zone just underneath. We will wait for the pullback to come back to these areas to re-distribute on the lower time frame in order for us to get the most premium price to sell at which will maximise our risk to reward ratio. Ideally we would also wait for the asian high to get swept first at 150.420 before looking at entries, as there will be no more reversal magnets against our trade. Our sells will then be in a very good position for price to just melt down. Scenario B is that USDJPY will end up making new highs and break the POI's marked out. This would be expected when the current pull back comes and fails all the supply zones at the top to take out the ATH's (All time highs of the market.) However, even then we will also expect a bearish trend to form once price decides to sweep ATH's as that is also a strong form of liquidity. My confluences for USDJPY shorts are as follows: - Price has tapped into the last 8hr supply zone of the market that also caused a change of character on the 4hr. - Liquidity has also been swept inside the zone from the upthrust distribution and has now left valid POI's - Once the asian high gets taken there will been reversal magnets against our sell bias. - Lots of liquidity to the downside to target as take profit targets i.e. Trendlines, equal lows, untouched asian lows and long wicks to fill. - There is also a 15hr demand zone at the bottom that price needs to eventually mitigate. P.S. There is also a 3hr supply POI underneath the asian high that it could react off but I would like to see a clear CHOCH and maybe even a break of structure to validate the hold of that supply. As we have identified both feasible scenarios, we can now prepare for the markets price action to play out and make our moves from there. But we must remain adaptive at all costs and know either could occur in this markets forecast.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
USD/JPY: Japanese Yen retests the psychological threshold of 150Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said Thursday that authorities were closely monitoring current developments and warned investors not to sell the yen. The Bank of Japan's ultra-easy monetary policy is putting pressure on the Japanese yen as other central banks tighten policy at an unprecedented pace to curb inflation. Rising government bond yields and global inflation have pushed up Japanese government bond yields, putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to adjust its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The Bank of Japan has been adjusting its YCC policy for several months, and this may continue at next week's meeting.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
USD/JPY stuck below 150 ahead of Japan CPI reportSoaring government bond benefits continue to dominate the pair's price action. Investors still need to watch out for Japan which will likely rate closer to 150. USD/JPY fell near 148.80, but quickly recovered to around 149.50 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to announce its inflation forecast for fiscal years 2023 and 2024 earlier. On Tuesday, Bloomberg forecast the BoJ's new core CPI for fiscal 2023 could reach 3%, up from 2.5% in July and more than 2% for fiscal 2024. Inflation Forecast higher shows that the BoJ is confident ahead of salary increase negotiations next spring.
Short
by NicoTradingMaster
USD/JPY Bullish long RangeUS Dollar Dips but Finds Buyers The US dollar has fallen rather hard during the course of the trading week, but found enough support underneath to turn things around. The ¥138 level is an area that a lot of people had been paying attention to as it was the top of the ascending triangle that I have marked on the chart, and of course the “market memory” that comes with the top of the ascending triangle is coming into the picture. If we turn around and break above the top of the candlestick, then it opens up the possibility of a move toward the ¥142 level. If we break above the ¥142 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥148 level which is the measured move from the ascending triangle. You can see that we broke out exactly where you would anticipate seeing that based upon standard technical analysis, so I do think this is a market that you are a buyer of dips on given enough time, and will have to look at it through that prism. I have no interest in shorting this market, and I do believe that as soon the market breaks above the top of this candlestick, we will probably continue to see a lot of upward momentum and a move to the upside. If we were to break down below the ¥138 level, then it could see a fairly steep correction, but right now I don’t see that in the cards, and I believe we probably still have the possibility of a stretch higher. The US dollar continues to benefit from the Federal Reserve being tight while the Bank of Japan continues its yield curve control. BoJ Governor in no hurry to alter BoJ monetary policy path Key levels to watch for USD/JPY for the current bearish continuation scenario BOJ GOVERNOR UEDA IN NO HURRY TO ALTER COURSE BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed that the Bank is in no rush to alter the path of monetary policy despite interest rates holding above the 2% target since early 2022. The pick up in inflation has been attributed to supply side effects created by the demand and supply mismatch brought about as a result of the Covid-19 lockdowns and Russia Ukraine war. However, this morning at a platform for Japan’s government draft economic policy, it was declared that the government will eradicate a deflationary mindset and move towards ending deflation with bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and with its growth strategy. Additionally, the draft policy issued hope that the BoJ achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target, accompanied by welcomed wage growth. The news helped the pair continue to ease lower in early European trading. USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND KEY LEVELS OF INTEREST USD/JPY turned lower at the beginning of the week when news of a provisional agreement to raise the debt ceiling filtered into the market. Since then, interest rate expectations have reversed course, initially favouring a 25-basis point hike and now largely favouring the no hike or “skip” outcome. As such, a weaker dollar has benefitted the yen which now sees the pair on track for 5 consecutive days of declines. The 138.20 and 138.00 zone of support currently appears as the next area of support, followed by the 200 SMA which hovers around 137.27 at present. The downward momentum is supported by the return from overbought territory on the RSI towards neutral levels, alleviating pressure on Japanese officials that had to issue a warning that they are closely watching speculative moves in the currency market. Resistance lies all the way at 140/142.25, some distance away. MAJOR RISK EVENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK Today at 13:30 UK time, US non-farm payroll data is anticipated to reveal a fewer number of jobs being added in May compared to April. Actual prints have varied significantly from prior estimates so be prepared for increased volatility in the event we see another departure from the consensus figure of 190k. If yesterday's ADP (private payroll data) beat and increased employment number within the ISM manufacturing PMI are anything to go by, we could very well see a print above expectations. However, it must be said that ADP has proven an unreliable predictor of NFP data and the jury is still out on whether its new methodology is any better than the last. A sizeable beat may see an uptick in rate expectations, lifting the dollar, and by extension, USD/JPY. A miss could add to the current sell-off as traders get behind an interest rate skip later this month. US services PMI will be a crucial data point in analysing the state of the US economy at a time when equity indices surge on thanks to a handful of massive tech and AI-aligned names. Towards the end of next week Japan will see the final GDP figure for Q1 - which is likely to confirm a much improved outlook than what emerged in the final quarter of last year.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
USDJPY 4H : Support further declineUSDJPY New forecast The USD/JPY pair was able to break the 148.89 level and hold below it, reinforcing expectations that the downward trend will continue effectively during the coming sessions, paving the way for achieving our main awaited target at 147.87 and 147.45. By closely looking at the chart, we find that the price is forming a double top pattern whose confirmation level is at 148.35, which means that exceeding this level will motivate the price to achieve additional negative goals that exceed the level mentioned above. so to confirm the bearish trend should stable below 148.35 . Therefore, we will continue to favor the bearish trend for the coming period unless the 149.24 level is breached and holds above it. The expect range trading for today it will between resistance line 149.24 and support line 148.35 . support line : 148.35 , 147.87 resistance line : 148.89 , 149.24 Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
Short
by Arazmajeed
18
USDJPY 4H : Still support decline USDJPY New forecast The price perfectly fulfills my last idea and we get about + 60 pip . The USD/JPY pair made an attempt to break the 148.35 level, but was unable to stabilize below it, fluctuating around 148.70, waiting for the price to be stimulated to complete the formation of the double top pattern and then resume the expected downward trend in the intraday term, whose next main target is located at 147.87 and 147.59. From here, our expectations for the downward trend will remain valid and effective, recalling the importance of stability below 149.24 for the expected decline to continue. The expect range trading for today it will between resistance line 149.24 and support line 148.35 . Additionally ,Today News will affect the market . support line : 148.35 , 147.87 resistance line : 148.89 , 149.24 Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
Short
by Arazmajeed
82% of retail investors hold short positions.Resistance Level 2: 150.00 Resistance level 1: 149.00 Spot price: 148.46 Support bit 1: 147.80 Support bit 2: 147.00 On Monday (October 9), the U.S. dollar fell 0.57% against the Japanese yen to 148.49. As the situation in the Middle East panics the market, the Japanese yen, a traditional safe-haven currency, has been favored in cross trading, which has also indirectly increased its direct quotation against the US dollar. In addition, although the U.S. non-farm payrolls data is strong, it is not enough to change expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in November. Therefore, investors seem to be starting to find excuses to ease the pressure on the yen. USD/JPY is likely to see an adjustment downward trend under profit-making selling pressure. On the daily chart, the signs of top divergence seem to be gradually confirmed, the price line has also begun to fall below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands channel, and the technical indicators are trending downward. Pay close attention to the support of 147.50 below. If it falls below, be careful that the adjustment downward momentum may drag USD/JPY to a lower level.
Long
by Zenobia-Harte
1
❗ USDJPY: Unimaginable Highs ⚡Crazy right?!😲 Who would have thought we would be back trading at the 1998 highs? Well, here we are. Sooooo what is the game plan now? Ideally, we need to figure out a zone to sell from! 👇 So let's figure that out together: Where is everyone trying to sell from currently? ⚡ The supply zone we are currently trading in. Where will everyone's stop losses be if they are selling now in this supply zone? ⚡ Above the high. So where can we expect liquidity and stop loss hunting? ⚡ Above the high. Great! Now wait for the liquidity grab and begin your search for possible sells once that is complete. Happy trading folks!! 😀😁😆
Short
by AlkalineFX
15
Will USDJPY will break downside soon?USDJPY is one of the popular Forex-Pair for trading. USDJPY is showing near term bearishness. as we are seeing that it's trading on it's all time high also has been rejected once with high volume volatility. once break we will be having a nice approx R:R :: 1:3 trade. Near future i am expecting a bearish market once it break to downside. all levels are marked on the chart. Reason : In rising wedge pattern which is mostly bearish. once break to downside Price < VWAP. RSI is already in 40-60 means mostly sideways. if it breaks will be a breakout of 2 month consolidation in Rising wedge. Verdict : Bearishness is expected in upcoming week. Plan of action: Go short on Break downside.
Short
by finnova_
Is it safe to set sell orders at 150.000 for USD/JPY now? Did the BoJ secretly intervene in USD/JPY on Tuesday? And is there more to come? For now, Bank of Japan officials have avoided explicitly stating whether they had stepped into the market to strengthen the yen. After the USD/JPY crossed 150.000 (its weakest levels in a year), a huge candle appeared on Tuesday touching as low as 147.300 before closing at 149.100. The Bank of Japan's data apparently showed that it did not intervene (its current account balance was within the estimated range). So, if it wasn’t a BoJ intervention, what was it? A self-fulfilling prophecy? Maybe both? It’s all a bit murky. Even former BOJ official Hideo Kumano said that Tuesday's move showed all the hallmarks of intervention. Of course, if it was the BoJ, they would be willing to do it again if needed as they have stated many times (although the officials like to phrase it as combating excess volatility rather than combatting a weakening yen). Tuesday intervention could have just been a warning shot to those looking to bet against the yen, with more drastic action from the BoJ locked and loaded. The BoJ last officially intervened in the currency markets in September and October last year, when the USD/JPY hit a 32-year low of 151.940. At that time, intervention was able to push the pair down to 146.000. Which begs the question; what could be some possible targets this year? Well, the aforementioned wick’s low of 147.300 is an obvious target, with 147.000 just below it. But, like the wider context, targets become a little murkier after these levels. Last year's pivot points at 145.700 and 145.500 might come into play.
by BlackBull_Markets