Index Analysis and Trading Tips - Dow Jones 22nd Feb 2016Dow-Jones
16391
Market failed to sustain advance to test 16535 in low liquidity trading on Thursday and Friday proved very stagnant.
US CPI data confirms advance or head for another drop impulse which may activate above 16700 zone - as long as market holding trades above 16300 the chance for further advance toward 16535 and 16700 will sustain
** below 16300 market my head for drop correction toward 15600 zone
All the best and happy trading!
USDRUB
EURRUB: Pair tradeI will be buying the Ruble with Euros since I think we have tremendous downside potential as well as excellent yields as a carry trade.
The setup is to determine size on each leg of the pair using 1 month ATR, or 3 times the daily ATR value, and then proceed to short the EURUSD and short the USDRUB pairs to profit from this juncture.
You could look for a technical setup, but in this case, it's a bit tricky to find a stop loss location for it, so I prefer to deal with no stops, and no leverage, and just trade it as a pair.
Good luck if taking this trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Short EURUSD/Long USDRUB, volatility adjusted, downside potential: 34.48, upside risk: 93.69
Buy USD/RUB | Target :78.20Technical analysis of the currency pair #Usdrub
The currency pair is still in the uplink. Looking at the currency pair, striking candle figure 2 with an interval of a week. Morning and Evening Star. Reversal pattern on this pair is ready.
We retain a negative view against the Russian currency. This view is based solely on macro-economic factors, as well as technical analysis. The current situation in the oil market creates high risks in the economy and in terms of the balance of payments in terms of GDP growth, and most importantly in terms of budget execution. Thus, lower oil prices give rise to the following factors:
- For the execution of the budget deficit to 3% following items are required parameters in the oil price:
$ 25 per barrel: 140 rubles / $ 1
$ 30 per barrel: 105 rubles / $ 1
$ 35 per barrel: 94 rubles / $ 1
$ 40 per barrel: 84 rubles / $ 1
$ 45 per barrel: 70 rubles / $ 1
- Reduction of the trade surplus of the Russian Federation in 2015 amounted to 23%
- Real disposable income as real consumer demand from the population decreased.
- Real interest rates are in negative territory (interest rate in Russia 11%, inflation is accounted for 12.91%)
- Drivers of economic growth there and segodnshny day we do not see a clear and clear economic policy and economic goals.
- A gradual increase in interest rates the Fed will eventually have to bring more capital outflow from Russia than it is now, it is best suited for an example in which the outflow of China amounted to US $ 1 trillion.)
- The difference in DCT Fed and the Central Bank will soon play a greater role than it is now.
We maintain a long-term forecast for USD / RUB 100 p / $.
Krastkosrochny forecast assumes a return to the highs of the year.
#Forex #Trading #Usdrub #Rub #Cbr # Ruble Economy # # Inflation
Prism breakout tradingplan USDRUBYou're going to be breakout trading.
Follow the trend 'till you see reversal.
Fibs an old highs and pools of liquitiy are likely places to see reversal, so keep your eye on it.
*Warning, Forex trading is high risk, always use a stop*
I'm going to place my stop at break even, and make it move with the trend as it progresses.
Russian rouble detached from Brent in DecemberThis chart shows the price of Brent oil in RUB. Now, the thing is Russian government needs it around 3200 RUB per barrel to balance the budget. So, shorting Russian currency when UKOIL*USDRUB<3200 used to be a reliable trade since 2011.
Not so anymore...
Rubicone by CBR (USDRUB)11.12.2015 CBRF will report new interest rate Russia if interest rate will below 12,5% so usdrub will have new price channel 70-80 rub if interest rate well above 12,5% so price channel will go to down 70 rub. 11.12 CBRF tell new interes rate which interest rate do CBRF will be?
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB UPDATE: BREAKOUT FROM THE RANGEAfter the WTI Oil has confirmed its breakdown from its relevant range, USDRUB reacted accordingly - by breaking out from its range it has been in since September.
Price is now above both 1-year and 1-quater distribution, trading above upper 1st standard deviations from 1-year and 1-quarter mean - signaling more upside probability.
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB UPDATE: THE RANGE NARROWSUSDRUB continues to trade within borders we defined in our last update, however the range has narrowed. (see related idea)
As volatility compresses, and the price is trading between upper 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean and lower 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean, there current range now is 62-66.5
USDRUB is very correlated to WTI Oil, which is also now range-bound, so it is very likely that the Ruble will break away from its range when WTI Oil makes the first move
Multiple Dollar pairs suggest downThis is an interesting portfolio.
Will these pairs follow USDCNH's lead?
Is this the beginning of a new fundamentally backed intermediate term trend?
Or just a very nice short term short?
Setups on chart, we will cover these in our skype group's discussions.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to contact me via pm or skype. I provide signals for auto trading. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom where we give education to traders, as well as discussing the positions we're in.
All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB UPDATE: INTO THE LATERAL RANGEUSDRUB has finally managed to end its upward trend, started the begining of June 2015
The price level has shifted - before uptrend USDRUB was trading about 55, now it is trading north of 60.
The end of the uptrend was marked by the price falling below quarterly mean and within 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean.
Thus currently the pair is range-bound, with the range borders are as marked on the chart. For further developments one should closely monitor WTI Oil (related idea), as the Ruble is closely correlated to it.