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GBPUSD Analysis Monday Nov 18th Today's analysis for GBP/USD shows an overall bearish trend. I am looking to go short once the price hits the Sell-Side Imbalance Buy-Side Inefficiency (SIBI) Fair Value Gap (FVG) area. Additionally, there's a breaker block just around the FVG that reinforces this potential short entry. The resistance level at 1.2650, aligned with the 14-day EMA, is a key zone I'm watching closely. If the price reaches this level, it will provide an ideal entry point for a short position. Stop Loss: 1.2680 - Placed 30 pips above the entry point to protect against unexpected upward movement. Take Profit: 1.2590 - Positioned 60 pips below the entry point at a previous support level where price action may slow down or reverse. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 NB. The dollar has been strong since the elections and hoping to continue for a while with the BOE uncertainties. Always keep an eye on upcoming economic events and market sentiment for any sudden changes. Happy trading!
Short
by hskarue
Market Crash. It will happen again!! Be ready..There are not only similarities. Many factors are the same even worse. It will crash !! Today, let’s look back at how everything in 2007 was sunny until it wasn’t, and we will compare that data with today’s. The current market situation, as reflected in the Fed's rhetoric and actions—general narrative, interest rates, inflation, unemployment, etc.—is very similar to the state that preceded past crises. Yes, history is not a guarantee that the future will be the same, but it is a guide that should not be ignored. It’s good to take at least the main lessons from it because listening to the general sentiment and talking heads on TV often doesn’t pay off. Those who now lament that the Fed is unnecessarily and excessively lowering rates will shout the loudest in six months for the Fed to continue lowering them. Ignoring the past is like voting for Kamala Harris and expecting change and development. Sorry, white braindead dudes… So, let’s get to the main message of today’s article: We will take a very detailed look at 2007 and how it all unfolded step by step. First, we’ll analyze 2007, and then compare it with 2024. After that, we’ll look at the financial “health” of the average US consumer and American companies. Let’s go!! CHAPTER 1: THE YEAR 2007 The first rate cut was at the September FOMC meeting on 18.9.2007 by 50bps to 4.75%. The market was shocked by this Fed decision because it expected a cut of only 25bps, and articles began appearing everywhere that the Fed was ahead of itself and would cause inflation and another endless stock market rise. The Fed succumbed to market pressure! Below is an excerpt from The NY Times article: The S&P500, DJI, and all other major indexes immediately surged to new all-time highs. Yay, bullbrun!!! Helicopter money, the Fed has given up. Sell your car and buy stocks, everyone! Meanwhile, unemployment at this time remained around 4.7% and was relatively stable. The next rate cut came at the November meeting by 25 basis points (bps) and another 25 bps at the December meeting. “Let’s enjoy Christmas in peace, there’s nothing to worry about, we’re lowering rates for a soft landing. Like lying down in a bed with Egyptian cotton sheets.” But then the new year arrives, and it seems Wall Street spent all its money on gifts because a week before the planned January FOMC meeting, an EMERGENCY MEETING is held, and the Fed cuts rates by 75 bps. A week later, at the planned FOMC meeting on January 30, 2008, another 50 bps cut brings rates down to 3%. In March, another 75 bps cut follows, and in April, another 25 bps, bringing the total to 2%. Then comes a long pause until early October, when the Fed holds another EMERGENCY MEETING and cuts rates by 50 bps. Immediately at the next planned FOMC meeting two weeks later, it cuts again by 50 bps to a final 1% interest rate. Here it is an Excel chart for better clarity !! Here is a complete overview of the rate cuts during this period: Let’s forget about the Fed Funds for a moment and look at what the yield curve (US02Y YIELD) on 2-year bonds was doing. Since the first rate cut in September 2007, it went down and then dropped another 82% over the next 12 months! What were MONEY SUPPLY and INFLATION doing during this period? Both money supply and inflation were rising. M2SL increased from $7.4 trillion to $8.2 trillion, and inflation rose from about 2.8% to 5.4%. However, this range in inflation has been completely normal since 1982, as we have been moving within this range. Although inflation had a momentary rise, it was nothing out of the ordinary and then experienced an absolute washout. It’s crucial to keep asking the key question: What was the narrative at that time? What was the “general” opinion and sentiment? It was: The Fed gave in, the bull run continues, inflation is up, the market is saved, and the Fed is overdoing it, buddy, unnecessarily. What about the long pause between April and October when rates were flat? It was half a year of stabilization, waiting to see what would happen. They were worried that they had cut rates so aggressively that they were ahead of the market and now had to wait for the market to calm down. Read: every pundit in the news claimed the Fed had overdone it and was unnecessarily aggressive. So, when did the total meltdown in the stock market begin? During the pause in interest rates between April and October 2008, the market was relatively stable and only lost about 15% of its value. It was only after this period that the real crisis hit, and the DJI lost another 41% of its value over the next six months – see chart below. Let’s put everything together for the year 2007: Comparison of US02Y Yield, DJI, Unemployment, and Interest Rates: US02Y Yield: The yield on 2-year bonds dropped significantly, falling by 82% over the next 12 months after the first rate cut in September 2007. DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average): The market initially surged to new all-time highs but later experienced a significant downturn. Unemployment : Remained relatively stable at around 4.7% during this period. Interest Rates: The Fed cut rates multiple times, starting with a 50 bps cut in September 2007, followed by several more cuts, eventually bringing the rate down to 1% by the end of the period. Alright, let’s take a look at what GOLD and the VIX were doing at that time. Gold kept hitting new all-time highs, while the VIX was lying in bed with a cold until October 2008. In short, it took about 13 months from the first-rate cut for the VIX to show any significant upward movement, which then triggered the final cascade of the entire market. From the first rate cut in September 2007 to March 2008, gold increased by 38%, while the VIX remained dormant. The VIX only started to spike in October 2008 after the Fed had kept rates flat for six months, leading to the real and juicy market meltdown. Alright, enough history, let’s move on to the current state. Chapter 2: The Year 2024 Now, let’s shift to the present and look at what the same charts, narratives, and everything else tell us today. We’ll start with the Fed. We’ll always start with the Fed because it’s our bestseller. Surprise, surprise, the Fed cut rates on September 18, 2024, exactly like in 2007, by 50 basis points to 4.75%1. The talking heads are just as shocked and fascinated by this event as they were in 2007. For the upcoming meetings, the expectation is a 25 bps cut in November and another 25 bps cut in December. Any resemblance to 2007 is purely coincidental… What about the indexes? Well, we’re hitting new endless records, champagne is flowing, and we’re using rolled-up newspapers for coke because banknotes are too small. In LalaLand, the DJI reaches 43,100 USD and the S&P500 hits 5,900 USD. The crowds are going wild… The current sentiment, according to “experts,” is: According to a survey, only 8% of respondents expect something like a hard landing. Yuck, who would want a hard landing? 76% expect a soft landing, and the rest prefer not to expect anything at all. Notice how the probability of a HARD LANDING has been decreasing throughout the year. This reflects the general sentiment because if a crisis were to happen, it would have come long ago. What about UNEMPLOYMENT? It remains stable at around 4.1%, but due to statistical errors from the statistical office, we will have to wait about 12 months for the actual values. What about the MONEY SUPPLY and INFLATION charts? The money supply is increasing, and inflation is back in its “comfort zone” of around 2-5%. Let’s put everything together for the year 2024: Comparison of US02Y Yield, DJI, Unemployment, and Interest Rates: Interest Rates: Decreased from 4.75% to 4.25% (a reduction of 50 basis points). Unemployment: Increased from approximately 3.4% to 4.4%. US02Y Yield: Dropped from 5.2% to 3.5%. Dow Jones Index: Continues to hit new all-time highs every day. And what about the GOLD and VIX charts? Gold has risen by about 9% since the first rate cut, reaching new all-time highs (ATHs), while the VIX is still “sleeping” and pretending not to notice. That’s all well and good, but what does it all mean?! YEAR 2007 vs 2024 It means that if we look closely and with the benefit of hindsight at 2007, the current situation is not just similar to before, it is EXACTLY the same. I don’t believe that history will repeat itself step by step and down to the last detail as before, but this comparison is meant to show you that most events can be seen in the data in advance. However, it’s hard to find this information through the disinformation deluge we call MAINSTREAM MEDIA. Macro charts, which most smart money follows and which have historically proven to be very accurate, show the same sequence of events as in 2007-2008. Additionally, China is already experiencing a similar real estate crisis as in 2008 (their words, not mine) and they think they can cover a 20 trillion loss with a 500 billion package. That will require a lot of prayers and incense sticks… CHAPTER 3: STRONG ECONOMY AND INDOMITABLE CONSUMER Powel, Yellen and all politics still speaking about a strong economy, I don’t know if they are intentionally lying or they are stupid. but here is retail data. How is the average American citizen doing, who barely finished high school, sleeps with a machine gun under their pillow, doesn’t have a passport, and thinks Africa is just below England? Average Americans are starting to drown in debt, and the chance of defaulting on the minimum debt in the next 3 months is increasing to about 14%. Auto loan defaults 90 days past due are now at 2.9%. Highest in 14 years. let’s look at ALL loan defaults together: We are in a very, very similar situation to 2007. There is no extreme yet, but notice how everything is starting to prepare for expansion. I don’t give it much weight as long as we’re below about 2, but I definitely wouldn’t support this chart because it’s another piece of our MACRO puzzle. What about the labour market? The labour market in the USA has fallen to 34.2 hours in terms of average hours worked per week. This is the lowest in 14 years. It is a continuous decline, with the labour market weakening for 8 months in a row, starting with the slow reduction of full-time jobs to part-time jobs and continuing with the gradual reduction of the workforce. Moreover, most large companies plan to lay off more employees at the beginning of the new year, which will result in hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs. Last month, the number of part-time jobs was at 28.16 million. The third highest number in history and 400,000 more than in 2008. Additionally, household investment in the stock market is at an absolute maximum, with the average Joe having over 48% of their assets in stocks. Double the value of the last 15 years. Well, everyone has some stocks, what’s wrong with that? There’s nothing wrong with investing in stocks, quite the opposite. Anyone with a bit of extra money should have a portion of their assets in quality stocks. However, it’s always important to keep in mind what the smart money is doing. CEOs, owners, and large investors are selling their stocks, and so-called “corporate insiders” are buying stocks at the slowest pace in the last 13 years The problems that crush the middle class are of course also connected to the real estate market housing affordability is currently the worst since 1985 and we are below 2008 levels! That’s not even talking about how many properties are now for sale in the US below pre-Covid values. What about companies? How do entrepreneurs succeed and why does it all take so long? First, we have the US election in about 3 weeks, and Japan’s Powell (samurai sake kimono, or something) has confirmed that the BOJ will not raise rates until after the US election. Moreover, the buyback in stocks has never been as brutal as this year 2024 – see chart below. Come on, it’s cool, isn’t it? When a snake starts eating itself, maybe it’s a long enough snake. The problem is that the SPX index consists of 7 strong companies. The remaining 493 companies report yet another quarter when they have a 0% increase in earnings.493 companies do not even meet the reduced expectations for 2024. But Magnificent 7 and AI Narrative will take it all by themselves. We’re already looking forward to having a robot make us a drink and getting into Elon’s autonomous taxi… which will actually be driven by a remote-controlled Indian from somewhere in the basement of Marrakesh. The Russell index is not much better, with so-called “zombie companies” reporting negative earnings reaching over 43% of the index. Buffet is not buying properly for the past 3 years and he is sitting on the historically biggest cash positions. He is waiting for the opportunity, which can come soon or next year. This is macro and it has a much longer timing. This week NFPs are coming with bad data and corrections are even worse. Most of the new jobs are created in the government sector. Oh and banks are holding in the biggest unrealized losses in the past two decades Also, we just passed 36 Trillion in debt, they added 1 Trillion in just 4 months. It's a mix for the mother of all crashes, when it will happen. I don't know macro top timing is difficult as you can see Kyosaki, Schiff, Burry and many more have been calling for the crash for years, eventually one day it will happen. Growing unemployment + fed rapid rate cuts are the last pieces to the puzzle. Once FED starts rapid cutting it will be the time. What to do? Definitely don’t be leveraged in any position. Be solvent and make sure you have a stable income. Have cash to use on this lifetime buy opportunity and buy some great assets when the interest rate hits 0% it could be the bottom of the crash. Will Bitcoin protect you? I don’t know, Bitcoin was not through such a crisis yet. But Im holding since I bought it down here Of course as usual this is not financial advice just my opinion. Do your own research. Be ready, to buy the bottom, this will be epic! Dave Hunter
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Dave-Hunter
6
BabayDoge VS Floki | ALTCOINS | WHICH can MOON ?Comparing B abydoge to Floki in this analysis. Both are memecoins , and both have digits for days. However, the one is evidently a pump-and-dump coin that showed no growth so far, whilst the other looks a little more promising ( for a memecoin at least ). I'd still prefer DOGE and SHIB, but there are interesting trading opportunities in these two alts. First after a retracement, BabyDoge is likely to be the next one to make large increases since Floki is already trading close to its previous ATH. More on DOGE VS SHIB here : ____________________ MEXC:BABYDOGEUSDT BINANCE:FLOKIUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
DOGE vs SHIB | UPSIDE POTENTIAL | Which is Better for ALTSEASON?DOGE and SHIB have one thing in common : both are meme coins - and that is probably the only thing. They each take turns to pump and dump, based on their position in the Total Cryptocurrency by Market Cap Rank. One of these, stands to gain much more than the other due to a few reasons as pointed out in the analysis. Which one are you rooting for this altseason? Speaking of altseason; don't miss yesterday's important update on BTC, Bitcoin Dominance, TOTAL3 and altseason: _________________________ BINANCE:DOGEUSDT BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
3
Part 2 of DOGE vs BTCWeekly candles, zoomed all the way to the beginning of the trackable orderbooks. Bitcoin's halvening seems to trigger an immediate "alt season" pump, and DOGE always benefits massively, claiming higher lows as a store of value. Let's be clear- nobody originally wanted to DOGE to ever be considered a store of value- that's why it has infinite emissions (a slowly dripped never ending supply) . In fact, the original idea was to make fun of Bitcoin's purity as a digitally scarce asset! So it's fundamentally strange to me that this inflationary asset continues to gain value against it's disinflationary older cousin. Oh well- hope you enjoy this one. DO NOT BASE YOUR TRADES OFF OF THIS!
Long
by mineyourbiz
So good SOWG a trailblazer in the freeze-dried candy and treat industry, will hold a conference call on Thursday, November 14, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time to discuss its results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024. The Company will provide its financial results in a press release prior to the conference call. Set up here looks good after retest. Revenue estimates are lower this quarter than previous, see what happens tm. Annual revenues are excepted to 3x in 2025. Low volatility for now.
NASDAQ:SOWGLong
by WSMS199
1
Presidential cycle. Will the crossing of RUT and SPX be repeatedDuring the Presidential Cycle is possible to verify that both indexes make peaks and troughs by the same time with similar moves. By early 2016, the indexes followed the same movement by roughly three months, after that SP500 and Russell2000 made a new high just before the elections. The prices continues to rise until the pandemic. By early March 2020, SPX crosses above RTU and it was above until a little before Biden election, thereafter RUT crossed again making a new high two months later SP500 also made a new high. By early January 2024, SPX crossed definitely RUT with SPX already making a new high. So following the history after the elections is time to RUT to cross above the SPX line as well as to reach another higher high(??)
TVC:RUT
by AFCapital21
Curtain fall for AMC, or will life be like a box of chocolates?CAPITALCOM:AMC has found itself in a falling trend since early summer, and unfortunately there is no relief in sight. Price is making lower lows and lower highs, and volume is dismal. It has been a difficult short term trade as it fluctuates quite a bit within a day, as can be seen from the long wicks. Fundamentally the company has challenges, one being it is highly in debt. It burns cash like there’s no tomorrow, and annual interest payments is approaching $400 million. Recently, the company announced its new plan, the “Go Plan”. A $1.5 billion plan to enhance customer experience to attract more visitors. Obviously this will mean more debt and more interest payments, or the need to issue shares. Neither is positive for the share price, the latter will hit immediately as it is announced. SimplyWall.st has it as 57% overvalued, with a fair share price of $2.71. I don’t see AMC breaking out of this anytime soon. My target is actually not the low of the channel, it is $3.50 which is the low of May 13. I believe price will seek to revisit that level.
CAPITALCOM:AMCShort
by WeRideAtDawn
13
Watch Movement Post Earnings. Strong bull for this stock as not only small caps have strength, but this company is rolling out there testosterone therapy and also has a cheap price tag. My targets are listed on the right hand side in bright pink. BUT, big but, if we lose this support there is nothing holding this thing up for a while until we reach previous support lines. I might be looking for a liquidity grab to the down side right after earnings and will watch for reversals. Manage risk please
NASDAQ:LFMDLong
by LeapTrades
2
Yields USA 1. 1-Month Yield (4.596%): - The short-term yield here is the highest, which might indicate a risk premium for investors lending to the government over such a short period. This could also reflect the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policies, which may be keeping short-term rates high to combat inflation. 2. 1-Year Yield (4.316%) and 2-Year Yield (4.252%): - The yields for 1-year and 2-year bonds are slightly lower than the 1-month yield, which is unusual in a normal yield curve, where rates typically increase with maturity. This could indicate an inverted yield curve, often seen as a sign of an economic slowdown or potential recession. Investors may be anticipating future rate cuts due to an expected economic weakening. 3. 10-Year Yield (4.308%): - The 10-year yield is close to the short-term rates, confirming a relatively flat or even inverted yield curve. Typically, the 10-year yield is higher in a growth environment. Here, a yield similar to short-term bonds suggests low confidence in long-term economic growth or expectations of stabilized inflation. 4. 30-Year Yield (4.473%): - The 30-year yield remains close to short-term yields, with a slight increase compared to the 10-year but still within the same range. This configuration indicates that the market does not anticipate strong long-term economic growth or significant inflation increases. It may also signal that investors seek the safety of long-term assets despite similar yields to shorter-maturity bonds. The yield curve appears inverted or very flat, which is often interpreted as a sign of caution or economic uncertainty. This structure reflects a potential anticipation of an economic slowdown, where the Federal Reserve might need to lower rates in the coming years if inflation is controlled and economic growth slows. Investors may be seeking protection by purchasing long-term bonds, anticipating lower rates in the future.
TVC:US10Y
by eLs-Trading
Will HMSTR Pump More Than 1300%?Note: This analysis is not a recommendation to buy Hamster was traded on GATE.IO exchange before being listed on large and small exchanges, and during 55 days in this exchange, its trading volume was more than 250M$. Then on the day of listing in all exchanges, suddenly HMSTR closes at $0.063057 and opens at $0.00638 and a big gap is created on the chart. As we know, GATE exchange is important for us because the appropriate volumes are exchanged in this exchange. Now that HMSTR is at 0.004185 the market cap is $269M. If this gap is filled, the market cap should reach $2.69B, which is not far from expected for this symbol with more than 100 million users, because HMSTR is one of the biggest cryptocurrency airdrops. Now on the HMSTR chart, it has broken its trigger line and is moving up strongly Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
1
ZCXUSDT Unizen 2h updateHi there Something exciting is happening on this Gem on 2h tf.. People are creating some shoulders and Head! I like to hunt this patterns on spot Coins like Zcx!! And i live the project of Unizen exchange and company:) This Coin has a good Future i bet! 0.07 is not fair for this Unknown Gem I mean its something rare you can Hodl and save your money as ZCX it worth now buy some with 15% Sl Head and shoulders will be hunted if BTC and Eth Continue Rising ✓ Goals are 0.1( short term) and 0.2 Good luck
Long
by Unknownzeros
$FREY - more money down the drain, headed for the graveyardNYSE:FREY is a company set up to enrich the owners and key players. They have tapped into subsidies in several countries, and the owners have made millions. They have delivered nothing, and plan after plan has been cancelled. After getting tons of money and praise in Norway, they shut down and moved to the US. Because the US government provided a better environment. Still delivering nothing, they now got awarded €122 million from the EU. Watch this money go down the drain, or into owners pockets. No point in doing any technical analysis, this company is heading in one direction only. Be aware of short termed price jumps based on nonsense, it is all part of the process of bankruptcy. As always, do your own due diligence. If this company is alive in its current form in 1 year, I will never post anything in here again.
NYSE:FREYShort
by WeRideAtDawn