PayPal: Turbulent Journey, Promising FutureI am a big supporter of PayPal but I believe its share value will get worse before it gets better. According to its Q2 2023 results, the online payment company experienced a deterioration in its liquidity with a cash ratio difference (cash/total current liabilities) of -0.04 when compared to its Q2 2022 results. The Q3 2023 Earnings Call taking place on Wednesday (1 November 2023) should set the tone for what to expect in the coming months, a steeper drop in share price or a much desired recovery.
PayPal has had a rocky year with the retirement of its veteran CEO, Dan Schulman, who was officially succeeded by Alex Chriss last month. Because Schulman's departure was planned and not sudden, the change in leadership is not a concern for me. The online payment giant also recently launched its own stablecoin showing its willingness and capability to evolve with the times. All-in-all, I believe PayPal's shares have been mostly rocked by factors outside of its direct control (rising treasury yields, pandemic lockdowns lifting, recession fears, etc) so I am anticipating the Q4 2023 to be a pivotal moment as I believe that's where we will see how Chriss has managed the company.
Despite the expected turbulence I am going to load up on LEAPS calls as I believe this company is extremely undervalued and is due for a strong recovery once the current macroeconomic disturbances subside. If the price continues to slip, I can see us hitting a support around $40 which will be the lowest the stock has been since February 2017. While this would be difficult to stomach, it offers an exceptional purchasing opportunity. A potential near-future recovery to the $58.50 level is also possible; $65 would be the next stop if the $58.50 ceiling is surpassed.
Speculative foresight: noting Elon Musk's prior history with PayPal and his long-term desires for operating an online bank (a desire he has expressed exercising with the newly acquired Twitter, now X, platform), I believe we can expect an attempted merger or acquisition from Musk once he has extinguished the current fires at Tesla and X. In my opinion, an attempt to takeover PayPal would attract high volatility which could launch PayPal's shares to prior highs. This is all speculation of course and probably will not occur for several years, if at all.
NASDAQ:PYPL
Value
My Favorite AI Play - Bandwidth (BAND)Bandwidth (BAND) is my favorite AI play right now.
The chart looks really bad! I get it. Today, it trades for below even its IPO price.
But the reason why I think it's an AI play ready to double, possibly triple, is a fundamental reason that I'll explain in this post.
First of all, let me state something very interesting about Bandwidth - today it's one of the worst performing stocks in the entire market since 2020 and 2021. I don't entirely know why that's the case, but I do think the market has overreacted.
Let me now get the bad news out of the way: when BAND's stock was flying high, management took out several large loans to expand faster and grow globally. Those gains are starting to be realized, but it's key to mention this as the debt profile is still somewhat high. The question now is: can they keep paying it off? They're on target to have little to no debt within the next few years.
Okay, so why is Bandwidth an AI play? To understand this you need to know that Bandwidth is essentially the connector for data that is transmitted over the web. Bandwidth's platform helps data, messages, voice calls, video calls, email, and more travel from Point A to Point B.
For example, when you make a call on Zoom or even Slack or Google Hangouts, it's highly likely your call is being routed over Bandwith's network. The point is, Bandwidth is the toll keeper, the train conductor, for most modern communications that are triggered at scale.
So how does AI fit into this?
That's where this gets good. All of these AI companies NEED a company to help deliver the information to their end consumer. If OpenAI creates a chatbot that works on text message or sends push notifications or can even speak over calls, Bandwidth will most likely be the resource that delivers that information from business to consumer.
What's even more interesting is call centers and the future of talking to call centers to get help or support. In one scenario, you upload all your most frequently asked questions, pair it with an AI service, and then let users call that AI service over the Bandwidth network and now an AI customer support agent is solving issues at scale.
This is just one example.
I could go on and on.
But that's my play!
I own a little Bandwidth and will be watching closely in the coming years.
Effects of USD losing its purchasing power over the yearsFrom 1st January 1985 the USD lost 64.13% of its purchasing power (according to BLS CPI) ; At the same time the nominal value of SPX index rose by 1594.95%
Adjusted for CPI and dollar purchasing power loss, the real rise in the SPX is only 507.40% ; In other words, the SPX index price would have been $1372.41 right now if the USD kept the same value as it had on 1st of January 1985.
Buterin & ETH Foundation sell ETH ! but why?Is ETH price about to Fall ?
Ethereum Foundation's large scale selling in recent years record and recently the Ethereum Foundation sold 15,000 ETH . In 2021, EF did sell 20,000 ETH at a high point
Vitalik .eth wallet was the first to move 200 Ethereum (worth about 400k) to the US based Kraken exchange. following Buterin's transaction, the Ethereum Foundation did the same but on a much bigger scale, they shifted 15,000 ETH to Kraken as well. together with Buterin's crypto, that makes 40 million USD in fiat
It seems that Buterin just sells Ethereum from time to time in more or less the same amounts , in the middle of February, he sold 210 ETH for roughly 325k in the USDC
that chunk of ETH was also sold on Kraken too. Back then, Ethereum was trading at 1,545 dollar. On March 13, he moved another 200 ETH to Kraken, selling it at the price of 1,656 per coin
On Friday that ETH had reached an eight month high in flows to crypto exchanges, the analytics team believes that this may be a sign of an upcoming volatility increase similar to what it was like after the collapse of FTX in early November and the Merge in mid September. In a tweet that followed, Santiment added that while "sky-high active deposits" of ETH to exchanges are the highest since November last year, ETH is now showing signs of decoupling from BTC and may be about to break above the $2,000 level.
A record amount of ETH was burned at the end of this week, that was down to the meme coin season unwrapping at the moment, as you knoq the majority of meme coins like PEPE or Floki run on Ethereum and so are being actively moved with high ETH fees, providing a great opportunity to burn ETH and decrease the circulating supply.
The Ethereum Foundation holds around 0.298% of the total ETH supply which in today’s market cap, that would put the value of the foundation’s ETH holdings at nearly 700 million dollar
In total, the foundation said that ETH accounts for 80.5% of its crypto and non crypto holdings, many have quickly pointed out that previous large-scale ETH selloffs by the foundation have preempted market downturns.
In November 2021, the foundation sold a cache of 20,000 ETH worth around $9.6 billion,this was swiftly followed by a major price correction as the market accommodated the increased circulation.
it also coincided with the beginning of the 2021 ETH bear market.n fact, such selloffs by the foundation have long been connected to peaks in the ETH price cycle. and for followers of the market, both the foundation and Buterin are closely watched for the timing of their sales, which have often been on the money.
Consider that in 2019, Buterin said in an interview that he had convinced the foundation to sell 70,000 ETH “basically at the top” of its price range at the time.
He added that the decision had paid off and had allowed the foundation to double its funding runway. Certainly, the organization has been busy recently and has developers to pay. For example, in the first quarter of 2023, it allocated $4,370,418 across its various research, development, and community programs.the foundation is also an active investor in the wider crypto ecosystem. In this role, it needs to be prepared to make high-value purchases.
Last year, the foundation took part in a $10.5 million Series A funding round for the workplace encryption startup Skiff. Skiff enables secure account creation and document sharing using an Ethereum wallet through the Ethereum Support Program, the foundation also offers grants to projects helping to build the Ethereum ecosystem.
what do you think about Eth foundation strategy?
Market Meltdown: Wall Street's Shocking Symphony Unveiled!In the heart of financial dynamics, where numbers narrate tales and markets hum a melody, we stand on the cusp of a riveting chapter. The surge in bond yields, the resonance of conflict in Gaza, and the corporate crescendos echo through Wall Street, crafting a narrative that captivates and challenges.
As we step into this unfolding saga, each market movement becomes a note in a symphony—a symphony where every rise in bond yields, every geopolitical tremor, and every corporate revelation plays a crucial role. Join me as we unravel the Overture of Wall Street, decoding the melodies that shape the financial landscape and beckon us into the intriguing world of global finance.
Bond Yields Surge: Unraveling the Threads of Economic Sentiment
The recent surge in the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, cresting above 4.9%, serves as a seismic event with far-reaching implications. Traditionally, higher yields spell caution for equity markets, diminishing the allure of stocks in comparison to the safety of fixed-income assets. The market's reaction, characterized by a 1.3% dip in the S&P 500, underscores the anxiety stemming from heightened borrowing costs for both corporations and households.
This surge in bond yields is not merely a statistical blip; it's a harbinger of a delicate dance between the Federal Reserve and the broader economic landscape. The specter of swelling U.S. debt looms large, and as Bloomberg Economics warns, the increase in yields could act as a drag on economic growth, akin to the impact of a Fed rate hike.
Geopolitical Turmoil: A Catalyst for Market Volatility
The geopolitical tableau adds a layer of complexity, with the Gaza conflict acting as a catalyst. The deadly explosion at a Gaza hospital and the subsequent cancellation of a summit with Arab leaders have injected fresh uncertainties into the market psyche. Beyond the tragic human toll, the conflict reverberates through financial markets, notably elevating oil prices.
Oil, the lifeblood of economies, rose nearly 2% to $91.50 a barrel. The Israel-Hamas conflict and optimistic outlooks for Chinese demand became twin engines propelling oil's ascent. Investors, already grappling with bond yield tremors, now face the added challenge of navigating an energy market rife with geopolitical uncertainties.
Corporate Performance: A Tapestry of Triumphs and Tribulations
Against this backdrop, corporate performances play a pivotal role in shaping market trajectories. Morgan Stanley's stock stumbled after reporting a drop in quarterly net income, emblematic of challenges within the financial sector. Simultaneously, Procter & Gamble's shares surged as the company reported a quarterly profit boost, underlining the impact of strategic pricing decisions in an inflationary environment.
The corporate stage is set, with companies wielding the power to either fortify or erode market confidence. In the case of United Airlines, a 7% early decline in shares following a cut in year-end earnings forecasts exemplifies the tightrope walked by companies in a tumultuous market environment.
Market Performance: A Symphony of Red and Green
As the final notes of the market day resonated, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Industrials bore the weight of a 1.3%, 1.6%, and 1% decline, respectively. The Russell 2000, reflecting smaller companies, faced a more substantial 2.1% dip. This symphony of red underscores the impact of mixed corporate reports and the tightening grip of rising Treasury yields.
The decline is not confined to domestic shores; the MSCI World index echoes the sentiment, falling in tandem with its U.S. counterparts. The markets, in their collective wisdom, are sending signals of caution, reacting to the interplay of global and domestic variables.
Deciphering the Market's Sonnet
In conclusion, Wall Street's current state is akin to a sonnet, weaving together verses of bond yield surges, geopolitical tumult, and corporate performances. Each stanza contributes to the larger narrative of market sentiment, reflecting the delicate balance between risk and reward. Investors must read between the lines, understanding that every rise in bond yields, every geopolitical tremor, and every corporate report shapes the verses of the market's sonnet.
As we navigate these turbulent waters, an agile and discerning approach is paramount. The future remains unwritten, and while challenges abound, opportunities await those who can decipher the intricate melodies emanating from Wall Street's financial symphony.
#STXRES #JSE - Resources bouncing off Long term levelsResource are very likely the place to be over the medium term. Satrix Resources which is a basket of the biggest resource stocks on the JSE is bouncing off a massive level of previous long term support which has now become support (Change of Polarity). This is a great area to accumulate for the long term in my opinion. Will be happy to review after a few months but for now 3x hold of support shows the bulls mean business.
Constituents below:
ibb.co
SPOT THE DIFFERENCE: Real vs RUG📈📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
Hundreds if not thousands of new cryptocurrencies launch monthly. All with big promises of use case, flashing tech and a stock-standard wide mouthed YouTube guy telling you how high it will moon. With these new tokens and coins also comes many initial coin offerings (ICOs) that are often scams. The demand for these have grown, even despite the fact that many people get rugpulled. This mostly unregulated market makes for a perfect place to scam innocent people out of their money, with little consequences to the thieves.
With crypto scams rampant, it's easy to get mixed up in a scam coin whose ultimate goal is a liquidity drain (slow, stair-step bleed down). Here's my top advice to avoid diversifying into bad projects / scams:
- Research the team. Perhaps the single most important success factor for any ICO or cryptocurrency is the developers and administrative team behind the project. The cryptocurrency space is dominated by major names. For that reason, it's increasingly common for scammers to invent fake founders and biographies for their projects.
- Check the whitepaper, twitter account and website. You want to see the background, goals, strategy and timeline for implementation for any blockchain-related project. This can be incredibly revealing: companies that have a flashy website may reveal they lack a fundamentally sound concept. On the other hand, a company with a website containing spelling errors may que that they lack a professional and qualified team and the website was built by someone's cousin's brother.
- It it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. The idea of getting rich quick on an investment in a hot new project sure is tempting. Remember that projects sounding too good to be true , likely are. Spend time scrutinizing every detail, and assume that the absence of a piece of crucial information may be an attempt to hide an unsound model or concept.
- Note the name. I can't stress this enough. Baby Doge, Baby Shib, pizza coin, bulldog etc... These are all coins that are obviously meme coins and you can almost expect to be rugged if you buy into a coin with a weird or funny name.
Final Rule of thumb : Always be CAUTIOUS when investing in projects that have retraced more than 90% from its ATH.
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A potential case for Dollar depreciation against the Euro Is it possible to see the Dollar depreciate against the Euro in the upcoming future, as a wannabe economist. I propose a few objective data points that may or may not support this thesis. I am interested in gaining feedback to further my ability to apply what I am self-teaching myself.
BITCOIN Bullish OutlookMy bullish outlook on Bitcoin stems not only from it potential as a politically neutral asset, but also due to the recent decision of the SEC to not appeal the Grayscale BTC ETF, thus making it a more attractive means of investment for the average consumer, as well as giving it credibility in the legacy markets.
In terms of price targets, some technical views suggest the following levels:
- $28,296
- $31,800
- In an extremely optimistic scenario, it might even reach $40,000.
1. The recent decision by the SEC not to challenge the approval of the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF suggests a more investor-friendly approach to Bitcoin investment may be on the horizon. This change in stance could make it easier for average joes to enter the Bitcoin market.
2. The rising global tensions are making Bitcoin appear increasingly attractive as it's a non-biased and politically neutral asset. This quality positions Bitcoin for potential success in uncertain times.
3. Notably, prominent figures like SkyBridge CEO Anthony Scaramucci embracing Bitcoin and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon altering his previously negative stance on cryptocurrencies add credibility to Bitcoin's prospects.
The Semiconductor Industry and Texas Instruments Long TXN
Company Overview: Texas Instruments (TXN) is a prominent and long-established semiconductor company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Founded in 1930, TXN has evolved into a global leader in the semiconductor industry, with a diverse portfolio of analog and embedded processing products. Here are some key aspects of the company:
Product Range:
TXN specializes in analog and embedded processing semiconductors. Analog chips are designed to process real-world signals such as sound, light, temperature, and motion. They are used in a wide range of applications, from industrial and automotive systems to consumer electronics.
As tensions between Taiwan and China continue to rise, it is a good idea to consider the semiconductor business as an industry to invest in. The largest chip manufacturer in Taiwan by far is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). Although TSMC focuses on digital semiconductors, the hype alone could lead many investors to add TXN to their portfolio simply because they don't understand the difference. TXN is also in a unique position, where in the event of a China-Taiwan conflict, it could certainly garner increased government funding.
We are currently watching three main price points.
1. $156.00
2. $167.00
3. $186.00
We are currently hitting the direct top of our Ichimoku cloud.
If we bounce here i anticipate All targets being hit within 2 months.
Especially if we see geopolitical events continue in their current manner.
Edwards Lifesciences - A Fine Enterprise
How to summarize this business ?
Rising earnings with high profit margins and low debt over long period of time.
***
EPS has grown from 0.3 in 2010 to 2.48 in 2022, with average profit margin of 22% for the past 7 years. Equity has been growing from 1.9 in 2010 to 9.5 in 2022 (book value per share). For the past 7 years highest Debt to Equity was 0.35 in 2017, currently standing at 0.12 ;
Sales per share have been on a steady rise from 2 in 2010 to 8.6 in 2022.
Company handles cash very well with free cash flow being around the level of net income for most years.
At these market levels with current EPS, company has not been valued so low since 2015, making it an attractive offer for this kind of enterprise.
Have A Great Day.
Welcome to the next generation.This is a huge thank you as an ex TradingView employee and platform nerd for releasing this awesome feature.
Until now, I had to painstakingly put it all together myself.
Now it costs only a few clicks.
THANK YOU TRADINGVIEW!
> Greetings go out to every little gear, of this freaky machine. Love you all.
Let's have some fun with this template.
Welcome to the next generation.
Gazprom price retracement to the fair value 7th October 2023
Synopsis:
Despite the conflict in Ukraine, Gazprom revenue is growing and currently on its historical high while price dropped to the 2016 level in US dollars. Price to the assets including oil subsidiary is on very low level. Large buyers started accumulating position according to Accum/Dist indicator.
Entry: 1st- 1.5 USD (160 RUB), 2nd - 1.12 USD* (113 RUB)
Target 3.0 USD (300 RUB) and above
Duration: 180d
* Potential new lower low in USD based on historical rubble price
Forecast White WAVE My forecast white wave is a range of days which travels from the top to bottom. As it moves to the top, candles seem to dip and as the wave moves down, candles move up.
I laid a yellow arrow pointing at the top of the white wave.
Every 2 vertical lines comes with a forecast of what’s likely to happen. The greenish ones shows it’s moving up to price value.
The orange top trend is my value line. Bottom orange moves along the candles.
XDB Accumulation - with XDB/BTC pairing.Accumulating XDB and running it in XDB/BTC pairing bots.. It is my coin for the year that may turn around and is finding it's bottom, if it hasnt already done so.
Current info
- XDB is an active project with updates informed vua Twitter and Medium
- It is a payment system that offers 10-15% in rewards after its used for a purchase at this time.
- They just launched payments in ASRoma, Doppleganger and Nuvolari (50 or so) stores. according the their Twitter handle Digitalbitsorg.
- In ... I believe MEXC AMA, they teased a large 900+ location brand chain that they are working with to launch Digibits for payments and rewards.
- Uses AtraX wallet
- It was primarily traded on Kucoin and Gate.io, but in the past month or two it has been listed on MEXC, CoinDCX, BTCEX, Deepcoin, etc.
- Also according to their Twitter, "#Defi is coming. AMM and liquidity pools are part of the V18 update, which is in testnet."
- Tokenomics roughly 3b/20b circulting. Some have been burned, some donated to Ukraine (address untouched since donation as of now).
- A token release/minting schedule is unknown.
I've been accumulating for a month or two.It has an ATH of 0.84 and is currently trading at ~0.00138. I'll be accumulating 0.0002-0.006. It's All time low is 0.00113147 on Kucoin. Which is down 99.xx%. Given the project being active, payments/rewrds available in a growing list of new stores, and DEFI in testnet the project appears to be undervalued. Weekly volume since October 2022-current is roughly 50x when copared to 2021 when it had it's high of 0.84 which is good news, but the Tokenomics needs to be monitored.
You can plainly see what is happening to the US dollarHistoric value of the US dollar before it collapses to Historic lows
Every step the U.S. Government has taken will strengthen the dollar and put massive pressure
on the economy.
When will people learn that nothing holds an inflated value too long.
The flaw most human beings have is they want the value to keep going up and maintain.
Housing markets, Bonds, commodities, company stocks and even cryptocurrency.
Nothing holds value!!!
Not even gold.
Value goes up and down.
Sometimes a value never increases to the levels you purchased.
Incorporating new technology into an asset depreciates when tech and material used starts dropping in value.
Housing market will be hit hard.
Economy is taking a beating to maintain a level of profits with merchandise.
Less spending causes a wave of layoffs and restructuring to balance the companies financials.
Cheaper alternatives to inflated goods will just inflate the cost and value of cheaper alternatives.
Never ending cycle in global markets to make money
NO investment strategy
This is just an example of what could potentially happen
AAPL Downgraded by KeyBanc: Weak Sales Outlook Raises ConcernsIntroduction:
In a recent development, KeyBanc has downgraded Apple Inc. (AAPL) due to a concerning weak sales outlook. This downgrade has sent shockwaves through the market, prompting traders to reevaluate their positions and consider potential shorting opportunities. In this article, we will delve into the reasons behind the downgrade and discuss why traders should exercise caution when dealing with AAPL.
Understanding the Downgrade:
KeyBanc's downgrade of AAPL stems from their analysis of the company's sales outlook. They have identified certain factors that indicate a potential decline in sales, thereby raising concerns about the stock's future performance. As traders, it is crucial to pay attention to such expert opinions and assess the potential impact on our investment strategies.
Reasons for Weak Sales Outlook:
Several factors contribute to the weak sales outlook for AAPL. KeyBanc highlights the following key concerns:
1. Slowing iPhone Sales: The iPhone has been Apple's flagship product, accounting for a significant portion of its revenue. However, KeyBanc predicts a potential slowdown in iPhone sales due to market saturation and intense competition.
2. Trade Tensions: The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have the potential to disrupt Apple's supply chain and negatively impact its sales. Any escalation in these tensions could further hamper AAPL's growth prospects.
The Call-to-Action: Consider Shorting AAPL with Caution
Given the weak sales outlook and KeyBanc's downgrade, traders should approach AAPL with caution. While shorting AAPL may present an opportunity for profit, it is essential to consider the following factors:
1. Conduct Thorough Research: Before initiating any short position, conduct comprehensive research to understand the potential risks and rewards associated with shorting AAPL. Analyze the company's financials, market trends, and competitor performance to make informed decisions.
2. Diversify Your Portfolio: Shorting AAPL should be part of a well-diversified investment strategy. Avoid placing all your bets on a single stock, as this can expose you to unnecessary risks. Diversification helps mitigate potential losses in case the market responds differently than anticipated.
3. Monitor Market Sentiment: Keep a close eye on market sentiment and news updates related to AAPL. Any positive developments or changes in the company's outlook can quickly impact stock prices. Be prepared to adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
Conclusion:
KeyBanc's downgrade of AAPL based on the weak sales outlook highlights potential challenges for the company in the near future. While shorting AAPL may offer profit potential, traders should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Diversification and monitoring market sentiment are essential for managing risks effectively. Stay informed and adapt your trading strategy accordingly to navigate the uncertainties surrounding AAPL's future performance.