Vanguard - “We are the invisible hand of Adam Smith” John BogleIf anyone ever thought of erecting a monument to the person who did the most for American investors — the choice would fall on John Bogle. These words are not from a promotional brochure but a quote from Warren Buffett himself.
Book summary
But most people don’t even know who Bogle is. And certainly don’t realize that he didn’t just “create index funds.” He built an invulnerable power machine disguised as client care.
📈 From a thesis to $10 trillion under management
Bogle’s story begins with an ordinary guy born during the Great Depression. Through poverty, scholarship-based education, and working from age 10 — he makes his way into Princeton, where he writes a thesis on a topic that would change the industry: "mutual funds."
Over the years, his philosophy turned into what we now know as "passive investing." From day one, the Vanguard he created operated on the principle: "maximum benefit to the investor, minimum — to the managers." No fees, no speculation, no marketing. And it worked. But here’s the paradox: ▶ Vanguard gave up profit for the mission.
▶ The world responded — investors were tired of the noise.
▶ As a result — "Vanguard grew into a monster capable of managing the economies of entire nations."
🧠 A revolutionary idea: a fund owned by investors
Bogle built a structure where "the fund owners are the investors themselves."
Sounds beautiful: no shareholders, no profit pressure — only long-term client interests. But then who de facto manages these trillions?
⚠️ Vanguard is not a public company.
⚠️ Its shares are not traded.
⚠️ The real ownership mechanism — a black box.
It’s the perfect system for... "invisible control." And this isn’t a conspiracy theory, but logic:
If you can’t find the ultimate beneficiary — it means they’re either too big, or hiding for a reason.
🕸️ The “Big Three” and the invisible hand effect
Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street — three funds that hold between 3% to 8% of shares in most of the world’s largest corporations. It seems small, but only 15–20% of shares are in free float.
❗ This gives the Big Three “real power”: from voting at meetings to influencing media narratives and climate policy.
📌 They own stakes in CNN, Fox, and Disney.
📌 Invest in oil companies that violate human rights.
📌 And at the same time — push the “green transition” agenda.
Conflict of interest? No. It’s “total control over both sides of the conflict.”
🤫 Why Vanguard is impossible to destroy
If you think Vanguard is just an investment fund, here are a few facts:
🔒 No company shares → can’t buy a controlling stake.
🔒 Over 400 legal entities → can’t file a single lawsuit.
🔒 Every investor essentially becomes a “co-owner” → responsibility is blurred.
🔒 All stakes split below 10% → bypass antitrust laws.
You can’t sue a ghost.
You can’t attack a network if you don’t know where its center is.
🧭 What’s next?
Today, Vanguard manages over $10 trillion, which is more than the GDP of Germany, India, and Brazil combined.
Though the fund’s founder passed away as “the conscience of Wall Street,” his creation became an "architecture of global control" that even the U.S. Federal Reserve couldn’t handle.
🎤 “We are the invisible hand of Adam Smith,” John Bogle once said.
A more detailed book review will follow below. I understand how important this is in our time and I appreciate it.
📘 General Concept of the Book:
The book is at once the autobiography of John Bogle, the story of the founding and development of Vanguard, and a manifesto of index investing philosophy. A runaway waiter, Princeton graduate, and "Wall Street rebel," Bogle creates Vanguard — a company that changed the investment world by making it more fair and accessible.
📑 Structure of the Book:
The book is divided into four parts:
Part I — The History of Vanguard.
Part II — The Evolution of Key Funds.
Part III — The Future of Investment Management.
Part IV — Personal Reflections, Philosophy, and Values of the Author.
💡 Key Ideas of the Book (Introductory Chapters, Preface):
- Index investing is the most important financial innovation of the 20th century.
- Passive management beats active managers in returns and costs.
- Vanguard’s mission is not to make money off investors, but to serve them.
- Criticism of Wall Street: high fees, conflicts of interest, short-term thinking.
- Financial revolution — a mass shift of investors from active to index funds.
🧠 Bogle's Values:
- Long-term thinking. Don’t give in to market “noise.”
- Honesty and transparency in investing.
- Minimal costs = maximum return for the investor.
- Fiduciary duty: protecting the client’s interest comes first.
📗 Part I: The History of Vanguard
🔹 Chapter 1: 1974 — The Prophecy
Context:
John Bogle is in a difficult position — he’s fired as head of Wellington Management Company.
During a trip to Los Angeles, he meets John Lovelace of American Funds, who warns: if you create a truly mutual investment company, you’ll destroy the industry.
Main Idea:
⚡ Bogle decides to go against the profit-driven industry and creates Vanguard — a company owned by investors, not managers.
Key Moments:
- Vanguard is founded in 1974 — in the middle of a crisis.
- The company has no external shareholders — all “profits” are returned to investors through lower fees.
- In 1975, the first index fund for individual investors is launched — a revolutionary idea, initially ridiculed as “Bogle’s madness.”
Important Quotes:
"Gross return before costs is market return. Net return after costs is lower. Therefore, to get the maximum, you must minimize costs."
– Bogle’s fundamental rule
🔹 Chapter 2: 1945–1965 — Background: Blair Academy, Princeton, Fortune, and Wellington
Early Life:
Bogle studies at Blair Academy on a scholarship, works as a waiter.
He enters Princeton. Struggles with his economics course, but…
In the library, he accidentally finds the Fortune article “Big Money in Boston” — about mutual funds.
Turning Point:
This article inspires Bogle to write his thesis:
“The Economic Role of the Investment Company”, where he argues:
- Funds should work for investors;
- Don’t expect them to beat the market;
- Costs must be minimized;
- Fund structure must be fair and transparent.
Career Start:
Work at Wellington Management (Philadelphia).
Starts from scratch, rising from junior analyst to president of the company.
Under Walter Morgan’s leadership, he learns the principles of discipline and serving investors.
✍️ Interim Summary
What’s important from these early chapters:
- Vanguard was born from the ruins of Bogle’s former career — an example of how failure can be the beginning of greatness.
- Already in college, Bogle saw the issue of conflicts of interest in the industry.
- His philosophy is idealism in action: don’t play guessing games — just invest in the market and reduce costs.
📘 Chapter 3: 1965–1974 — Rise and Fall
🚀 Appointed President of Wellington Management:
In 1965, at just 35 years old, John Bogle becomes president of Wellington.
He decides to modernize the business and bring in young star managers from Wall Street, especially from the firm Thorndike, Doran, Paine & Lewis.
⚠️ Risky Alliance:
Bogle makes a fatal mistake — he merges with the new management company without ensuring value alignment.
The new partners are focused on profit and short-term gains, not building a strong long-term foundation.
This leads to internal conflict, loss of trust, and poor fund performance.
💥 Dismissal:
In 1974, after a series of conflicts, the board removes Bogle.
He loses control of the company he built for nearly 25 years.
Bogle’s comment:
"I was fired, but I was still chairman of the Wellington mutual funds — and that turned out to be a lifeline."
📘 Chapter 4: 1974–1975 — The Birth of Vanguard
🧩 A Unique Legal Loophole:
Though Bogle was fired from the management company, he remained head of the Wellington Fund trustees — giving him the opportunity to build a new independent structure.
🛠 Creating Vanguard:
In December 1974, he launches The Vanguard Group — a company owned by the investors (shareholders) themselves.
Model: the fund belongs to the investors → the fund owns the management company → no outside profit, only cost recovery.
⚙️ "Vanguard" as a Symbol:
The name was inspired by Admiral Horatio Nelson’s ship — HMS Vanguard.
A symbol of leadership, courage, and moving against the tide.
Key Idea:
Vanguard would be the only truly mutual investment organization — a model where clients = owners.
📘 Chapter 5: 1975 — The First Index Fund
🤯 Revolution: The Indexing Approach
Bogle decides to create the first index mutual fund for retail investors.
Name: First Index Investment Trust (later — Vanguard 500 Index Fund).
Idea: invest in all S&P 500 stocks to reflect the market’s return instead of trying to beat it.
🪓 A Blow to the Industry:
The financial world reacts harshly:
- “Bogle’s madness”;
- “This is a failure”;
- “Who would want to just match the market?”
🔧 Humble Beginning:
The goal was to raise $150 million, but only $11 million was collected — tiny by industry standards.
But Bogle didn’t give up:
"It was a small step, but with a powerful message."
💡 Summary of Chapters 3–5: How Vanguard Was Built
🔑 Event 💬 Meaning
Loss of control at Wellington ----- Collapse of the old model, beginning of a new path
Creation of Vanguard------------- Innovative, investor-first structure
Launch of index fund--------------Start of the indexing revolution, Bogle’s core philosophy
📝 Quotes for Thought:
"All I did was apply common sense. I just said: Let’s leave the returns to the investors, not the managers." — John Bogle
"This is a business where you get what you don’t pay for. Lower costs = better results." — Bogle’s favorite saying, debunking “more is better”
📘 Chapter 6: 1976–1981 — The Survival Period
⏳ Tough Start:
After launching the index fund, Vanguard faces slow growth and constant skepticism.
For 83 straight months (nearly 7 years!), Vanguard sees net outflows — investors are hesitant to trust this new model.
🧱 Laying the Foundation:
Bogle and his team focus on:
- Transparency
- Lowering costs
- Investor education (they explain what it means to “stay the course”)
💬 The Core Dilemma:
"All investors want to beat the market. But no one wants to pay the price: high fees, taxes, risks. We offered an alternative — reliability, simplicity, and low cost."
📈 Small Wins:
Despite modest volume, Vanguard starts building a reputation as an “honest player.”
It becomes evident: investors using Vanguard achieve better long-term results than those chasing trendy funds.
📘 Chapter 7: 1982–1991 — Growth and Recognition
💡 The Power of Philosophy:
Bogle keeps repeating: “Stay the course” — don’t try to predict the market, don’t fall for fear and greed.
This message becomes especially powerful after the 1982 and 1987 market crises.
🏆 The First Fruits:
A slow but steady increase in assets begins.
Vanguard launches new index funds:
- Total Stock Market Index
- Bond Index
- International Index
📣 Educational Mission:
Bogle writes books, articles, gives interviews.
He isn’t just running a fund — he’s changing how people think about investing.
A community of followers emerges — the Bogleheads.
📊 Key Stats:
By 1991, Vanguard's assets reach around $130 billion.
Index funds begin receiving positive reviews from analysts, including Morningstar.
📘 Chapter 8: 1991–1999 — Industry Leadership
🚀 Explosive Growth:
In the 1990s, index funds go mainstream.
Investors realize that most active funds underperform the market — and they vote with their money for Vanguard.
🧰 Expanding the Product Line:
Vanguard introduces:
- Retirement funds
- Bond funds
- International and balanced funds
- Admiral Shares — low-cost funds for loyal investors
📢 Open Fight with the Industry:
Bogle continues to harshly criticize Wall Street:
- For greed, manipulation, and lack of transparency
- For prioritizing company profit over client interest
"The industry hates Vanguard because it proves you can be honest and still succeed."
⚠️ Internal Challenges:
In the late 1990s, Bogle’s health declines.
He passes leadership to Jack Brennan but retains influence on company strategy.
📊 Midpoint Summary (Chapters 6–8)
📅 Phase 📈 Essence
1976–1981 Quiet survival: building the model, fighting for trust
1982–1991 Slow growth: philosophy attracts investors
1991–1999 Recognition and leadership: indexing becomes dominant
💬 Bogle Quotes from These Chapters:
"Investing is not a business. It’s a service. Those who forget this lose everything."
"Every dollar spent on fees is a dollar lost to your future."
"Volatility is not the enemy. The real enemy is you, if you panic."
📘 Chapter 9: Leadership as a Calling
💡 A Leader ≠ A Manager:
Bogle contrasts a true leader with just an efficient executive.
A real leader:
- Puts others’ interests above their own
- Has a moral compass, not just KPIs
- Makes hard, unpopular decisions
🛤 His Leadership Style:
"Don’t ask others to do what you wouldn’t do yourself."
"Always explain why — people follow meaning, not orders."
He genuinely believes Vanguard should be more than a successful business — it should be a force for good in the market.
"Leadership is loyalty to an idea bigger than yourself."
🔄 Feedback Principle:
Bogle constantly interacts with clients, employees, and journalists.
He never isolates himself in an “ivory tower” — he believes this openness is a leader’s true strength.
📘 Chapter 10: Client Service — Vanguard’s Mission
🧭 The Mission:
"Maximize investor returns — not company profits."
Vanguard is built around fiduciary responsibility: every decision must pass the test — is this in the investor’s best interest or not?
🧾 How It’s Implemented:
- Fees below market average → investors keep more
- No ads for “hot” funds → Vanguard sells stability, not trends
- No sales commissions → no one profits off pushing funds to clients
- Ethical code — “Don’t do anything you wouldn’t want on the front page of the newspaper.”
"We’re not trying to be the best for Wall Street. We’re trying to be the best for you."
📘 Chapter 11: The Market Should Serve Society
📉 Critique of Modern Wall Street:
Bogle argues that finance has drifted from its original purpose.
Investing has turned into trading.
The investor became a cash cow, not a partner.
"The market now serves itself — and we’re still paying the price."
🌱 What the System Should Look Like:
- Companies should serve society
- Investors should be owners, not speculators
- Funds should be transparent, accountable, and honest
📢 Call for Reform:
Bogle calls for a rethinking of finance:
- Restore the human element
- Make mission more important than profit
- Protect long-term interests of millions of ordinary investors
"If we want capitalism with a human face, we must return finance to serving society."
📊 Summary of Chapters 9–11: Bogle's Philosophy
📌 Direction------------💬 Essence
Leadership-------------Morality, leading by example, purpose-driven
Business---------------First and foremost — service to the client
Financial System-------Must work for society, not just for profit of the few
✨ Inspirational Quotes:
"The most important thing you can invest is not money — it’s your conscience."
"Honesty in business is not a competitive edge. It’s a duty."
"I’m not against capitalism. I’m against capitalism without morals."
📘 Chapter 12: The Future of Investing — Where the Industry Is Headed
🌐 Bogle sees three main trends:
Victory of Passive Investing:
- Index funds continue to displace active management
- Their share of assets under management is growing rapidly
- More investors are realizing the power of simplicity
Fee Pressure:
- Fees are approaching zero (some funds are effectively free)
- Winners: investors. Losers: traditional management companies
The Role of Technology:
- Rise of robo-advisors (automated investment advisors)
- But Bogle warns: Technology without philosophy is just a tool, not a solution
🚨 Threat #1 — Hyperfinancialization:
"The market is turning into a casino. And the fewer the players, the more the house wins."
Bogle reminds us: the goal of investing is owning businesses — not gambling.
The higher the turnover, the more you lose on fees and taxes.
📘 Chapter 13: The Power of Indexing — Threat or Blessing?
📈 Strength in Scale:
The biggest index providers (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street) own large shares in nearly all companies in the indexes.
This raises the issue of concentrated power — is too much influence in too few hands?
⚖️ The Indexing Paradox:
Index funds don’t actively vote on corporate governance issues.
So the more power they hold, the less oversight there is over company management.
📣 Bogle’s Proposals:
- Establish a code of conduct for index providers
- Require them to vote in investors’ interests
- Mandate transparency in how they use their voting power
"We fought for the democratization of investing. We cannot let it end in a new monarchy."
📘 Chapter 14: Personal Reflections — On Life, Mission, and Faith
🧬 Personal and Eternal:
Bogle shares his core life principles:
- To serve, not to own
- To leave a mark, not accumulate
- To do what’s right, not what’s profitable
He talks about his battle with heart disease — both as a personal journey and a metaphor for resisting the system.
🙏 Gratitude:
He dedicates the book to his family, colleagues, and investors.
Emphasizes: every day is a chance to be useful.
"I created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. My career isn’t a triumph — it’s a thank you to fate for the chance to be heard."
📊 Summary of Chapters 12–14: Looking Ahead and Within
📌 Theme-----------------💬 Essence
Future of Investing---------Indexing is the new standard, but needs responsible stewardship
Concentration of Power----Index giants must be accountable to society
Personal Legacy-----------Life is about service, honesty, and setting an example
💬 Final Inspirational Quotes:
"Life isn’t about making more money. It’s about doing more good."
"One day, someone will say: ‘Bogle was stubborn. He never compromised his conscience.’ That will be the best reward."
🧩 Bogle’s Principle Summary (from the book):
- Lower costs — pay less = keep more
- Don’t chase returns — be realistic
- Be a long-term investor — ignore market noise
- Invest broadly, passively, regularly
- Don’t try to beat the market — own the market
- Focus on goals, not trends
- Finance = service. Not a business for profit
💡 Investment Philosophy
🟨 “This is a business where you get what you don’t pay for.”
🟨 “Don’t try to beat the market. Just own it.”
🟨 “In the stock market, investors are rewarded for patience and punished for frenzy.”
🟨 “Gross return minus costs = market return. After costs — less. So: reduce costs — and you win.”
🟨 “The problem isn’t that investors know too little. The problem is they know too much of what doesn’t matter.”
🧭 Principles & Morality
🟩 “Investing is not a business. It’s a service.”
🟩 “Honesty isn’t a strategy. It’s an obligation.”
🟩 “The goal of Vanguard isn’t to make more, but to return to the investor what’s rightfully theirs.”
🟩 “If your investments keep you up at night, change them. Or better — change yourself.”
🧠 On Leadership and Mission
🔷 “A leader isn’t the one in front. It’s the one responsible for the rest.”
🔷 “Respect isn’t bought. It’s earned when you do what’s right, even if it’s unpopular.”
🔷 “We didn’t build Vanguard for glory. We built it to leave something better than what was.”
💬 On the Market and Industry
🔴 “Today's stock market isn’t a place for investors. It’s a casino with a shiny sign.”
🔴 “We’re not against capital. We’re against capitalism without a conscience.”
🔴 “The people selling investments always say they can pick the best. But what if the best is just paying less?”
❤️ On Life and Legacy
💠 “I created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. It’s not my victory — it’s gratitude for the chance to serve.”
💠 “Every day is a chance to do something not for yourself.”
💠 “You can measure success with money. Or with a conscience, you don’t have to justify.”
It was a lot of work!
Click to like + Write in the comments your favorite books about the financial market
Best regards, EXCAVO
_____________________
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Vanguard
VUKE Daily - Tomorrow LDT for juicy 46p diviTomorrow is the LDT for a 46p divi = 1.46% simple divi yield off current price. Also appears as though the ETF has formed a triple top - but as the saying goes "no such thing as a triple top". I am hoping we power through to resistance around 33. I had been averaging into my ISAs and SIPPs the for past few days in anticipation of the dividend and next leg higher.
SUPER STOCKS 2023 notes & issues for POSiTiONiNG there are stocks driven by MARKET .. meaning float is out in the public
that normally has a DRUNK price action with gaps and erratic volume
there are issues with an assigned Specialist
that can TRADE or CROSS huge volume without moving the price or go beyond a range RANGE
highlighted ones have been decided by both the MARKET and the MARKET MAKER
best of both worlds where artificial price meets the wisdom of PUBLiC
Vanguard holds most or is the CUSTODY of most issues
Citadel & the gang of 3 manages the FLOAT
FUNDS are public
PUBLIC is barometer for entry or exit of Sovereign and Trust Fund babies on a 3 5 7 10 year cycle
determined by the FED's cost of printing borrowinng and lending
note:
Market Cap is dated June 22, 2022 ... Bottom are of MARKETS
Vanguard VWCE Funds Amidst Political Uncertainty in 2024Navigating through periods of political uncertainty requires a strategic approach. As the 2024 US presidential elections loom on the horizon and global geopolitical tensions simmer, investors are seeking avenues for potential growth while mitigating risks. Among these options stands the Vanguard VWCE Funds, offering a diversified portfolio that may weather the storm of uncertain times.
The Vanguard VWCE Funds, comprising a global mix of stocks and bonds, have garnered attention for their ability to provide investors with broad exposure to various markets worldwide. As the political landscape shifts with each passing election cycle and geopolitical tensions ebb and flow, understanding the potential impact on investment vehicles like the VWCE Funds becomes imperative.
In the context of the 2024 US presidential elections, investors may anticipate market fluctuations and volatility leading up to and following the outcome. Historically, elections have been associated with uncertainty, as markets react to the policies and agendas of newly elected leaders. However, amidst the uncertainty, the VWCE Funds offer a diversified approach, spreading risk across multiple markets and sectors, potentially mitigating the impact of any single event.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions and conflicts, unfortunately, remain a reality in today's world. From regional conflicts to trade disputes between global powers, such events can introduce volatility into financial markets. However, the VWCE Funds, with their global exposure, may provide investors with some level of insulation against the impact of geopolitical turmoil. By diversifying across regions and industries, the funds aim to capture opportunities for growth while managing risks associated with geopolitical events.
It's essential to acknowledge that past performance is not indicative of future results, and investing always carries inherent risks. However, by taking a long-term perspective and adopting a diversified investment approach, investors may position themselves to navigate through uncertain times more effectively.
Furthermore, the VWCE Funds' emphasis on low-cost indexing aligns with Vanguard's philosophy of putting investors first. With low expense ratios and a passive investment strategy, the funds aim to maximize returns over the long term while minimizing costs.
In conclusion, as investors brace for the potential impact of the 2024 US presidential elections and global geopolitical tensions, the Vanguard VWCE Funds offer a compelling option for those seeking growth amidst uncertainty. By providing broad exposure to global markets and adopting a diversified approach, these funds may serve as a resilient cornerstone in investors' portfolios, regardless of the political and geopolitical landscape.
5 Investors Betting Big on Pinduoduo (PDD) StockNASDAQ:PDD is soaring higher after a blowout third-quarter earnings report.
Let’s take a look at Pinduoduo’s largest shareholders:
1. Sequoia Capital: 48.23 million shares. Sequoia acquired 45.04 million shares during Q3.
2. Baillie Gifford: 35.66 million shares. Baillie acquired 4.5 million shares during Q3.
3. BlackRock: 27.87 million shares. BlackRock acquired 3.73 million shares during Q3.
4. Vanguard: 24.10 million shares. Vanguard acquired 6.63 million shares during Q3.
5. FMR: 17.63 million shares. FMR acquired 4.33 million shares during Q3.
Historical Comparison of Vanguard Sector ETFsQuick comparison chart to see which performed better (or worse) during bull and bear markets.
It's not always a straight-forward answer, and more variables involved.
But... should give you an idea all things else equal regarding ticker choices and weights.
VUAA to make a pullback and provide new BUY opportunity?Based on historic PA we can see the clear trend (UP).
However with the current economic situation, covid, war etc... stocks are making pullbacks.
Price is currently rejecting top of the bearish channel and could go lower to the trendline, however if Fibonacci is to be respected (Price already rejecting 0.786 level that aligns with the top of the channel) we could see deeper pullback and Fibonacci target for sell -0.27 aligns perfectly with HIGH from the past.
Targets upon pullback are of course each HIGH.
I would like to see price touch the trendline to execute some buys and if we dive lover and respect Fibonacci I will execute buys there as well.
Short term bearish, long term bullish.
Please have in mind that this is WEEKLY chart and analysis is for long term perspective.
This is not a financial advice.
Stock-bond correlation and 60/40 portfolio are at crossroadsIn 2022 the diversification between stocks and bonds within a "60/40" portfolio was an ineffective strategy that yielded negative returns and, as a result, did not safeguard the investment.
The reason was that both equities and bonds plummeted in lockstep as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate rises, with the correlation reaching its highest level in a decade. The blue area in chart above shows the 60-day rolling correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 index ( SPX ) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ( BND ) ETF, which currently stands at 0.89.
The positive stock-bond correlation had typically worked when the two assets climbed upward together in the post-GFC decade, but in this new environment, it did the opposite and for a longer time than in 2008 and 2020.
Similar to 2008-2009, a 60/40 portfolio of global equities and bonds saw a maximum drawdown of 25% this year, but lasted more.
The fall from peak to trough of the 60/40 portfolio lasted 252 days between June 2008 and March 2009, just 35 days between February and March 2020, and 336 days in 2022, making it the longest 60/40 bear market in the past two decades.
60/40 portfolio and its drawdowns – 60% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) & 40% Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND )
As we approach the final FOMC meeting of 2022, the future of bonds and stocks is at a crossroads, and a decoupling between the two assets may occur, making the 60/40 portfolio diversification plan more effective moving into 2023.
If the Fed signals that the end of the hike cycle is nearing and adopts a more dovish stance on inflation, both stocks and bonds will benefit from here.
If the Fed indicates that interest rates will continue to increase and that the window for a soft landing is narrowing, bonds will outperform stocks. However, equities will receive a boost when the recession comes and the Fed is pressured to cut interest rates.
The downside risk of this approach is an excessive tightening of interest rates by the Fed, which might increase bond yields even more (and cause prices to drop) and further devalue equity markets, extending the bear market for the 60/40 portfolio.
SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility coming from volatility token for SPX is at 4.15%, increasing from 3.41% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 10% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 3831
BOT 3578
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 3933is going to be touched
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week of 3660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.51% for bull candles and 2.76% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
Vanguard Real Estate ETFPeople say how do you short the Housing Market Bubble?
I say look at this VG Real Estate ETF.
Head and Shoulders Target hit on the DTF.
I can see a pattern on the WTF and MTF that could play out and cause a massive market crash.
History repeats itself and we have a system that is built on debt and getting worse.
Can you see the patterns on the HTF?
Safe Trading.
Vanguard Russell 2000 | Huge ABC correction inbound | $VTWOA five wave primary Elliot wave cycle has ended. A primary ABC correction will now take place before another primary downtrend begins. After two bear cycles there will be consolidation and reversal. Bull trend will follow consolidation.
1.) We have a right angled broadening bottom in progress
2.) We have an Adam and Eve double bottom on 1 hour and 5 minute charts
3.) The market is at exhaustion as the price cannot go lower than the mornings dump
4.) The daily chart show that the 5 elliot wave has stopped exactly at Fibonacci extension 1.236 of the 4th wave
Pullback ApproachingI'm playing around with a basket of #anguard funds on Betterment. I used to let the system do its thing, but I'm getting a bit more proactive based on the large-cap movement.
Following methods of the previous cycles, I Bought in around 142, and just sold at 147.10. Eying the 141 range in the coming days to reinvest.Time for lunch! #VTV
VDJP Daily - Good RR to accumulate I've been liking this ETF for a while - weekly set up very bullish with inverse h&s and bull flag. The move higher was initially very aggressive and I used it as an opportunity to take some profits. This pull back to the trend line is exactly what I have been waiting (&hoping for). Will use as an opportunity to keep averaging in
VAPX Weekly - Building up for larger move?It was disappointing that the 21.90 lateral support didnt hold, but I held onto my positions as the significant weekly 20.80 support was still in tact. As long as we remain above 20.80 the set-up remains bullish and could potentially be building up to form an inverse head and shoulder which will be confirmed with a break above 23.50. I continue to hold
VDJP Weekly - Starting to accumulate againFollowing the successful break of the bull flag and the quick follow through, there is no surprise that we are seeing a pullback on this ETF. I am starting to average back in after slowly taking profits from 27.50 (prior high) and above. There is no sign of a bottom here, but I am happy with the current price and will buy more if we move lower. The long term weekly picture is still positive as long as we stay above 24.50. I would still like to see 31/32 as a full target here.