COVID-19 ATTACK, Fake news and the DJI (Wall Street)I present Tradingview data on COVID-19 infection rates and death rates in the USA - and compare those with the DJI (Wall Street).
Contrary to what we've been told by our leaders and mainstream media, there is no plateauing of infections or deaths in the USA.
NOBODY can say that the virus has peaked. The virus is charging north on exponential curves. Most of it's attack was in April 2020.
This bug is just getting started.
The chart shows the FED's QE infinity approach and how it has been failing.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile, and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Virus
Black swan. Biggest shift of wealth in human history.Hello guys.
Just a few words for everybody too lazy watching the video.
We had the most crazy week in the stockmarket since many decades. The dump was violent.
Banks will fail - or at least the small banks will. Big banks might survive the financial crisis, but the world will never be the same.
Cryptocurrency will rise since it is the better money.
If you want to get rich. Just short everything you can - with reasonable leverage and never trade money which you cannot afford to loose. Ofcourse speaking of stocks and indices.
Keep in mind.
Health is more important than wealth.
(I always said 6.18 and meant 0.618)
I want to keep these videos short, but never manage to do so.
I might just get back to charts so people don't have to watch minute long videos.
Until then.
With best regards.
The trouble in Chinatown!There's not much interest in the Chinese stock index here on Tradingview but the ChinaA50 is absolutely important for what happens around the globe.
The A50 is in big trouble and more trouble is yet to come in weeks to months. This is just bad news for the rest of the world really.
I'll say no more here - follow some of the price action with me on the 4H.
POP!! POP! POP! 😂Oh well - only about 5000 points of a massive drop in just over 1 week. People are asking, " Has the bubble popped? ".
I go into this in some detail. I think we're at the start of the POP.
This thing is serious though.
I'd like to hear from others if they think this is going back up and to the moon.
VIRUS PANDEMIC = PANICI explain some of the price action on this chart and show an amazing 15 min trend.
The melt down has been caused by fears about the COVID-19 virus.
This is the biggest 3 day dump on the DJI is about 3 years. I explain how serious it is.
MAN AND MONEY vs VIRUS! WHO WILL WIN?The picture of the 2019-nCOV is rapidly evolving. Globally there have been >14,000 cases and >305 deaths. The trajectory of spread of this virus has exceeded SARS (2003).
In under 20 days there are 14,544 cases. There were less than 20 cases in the same period for SARS.
SARS plateaued off at 8,500 cases after 100 days then fell off. What we're seeing in hard evidence is that nCOV is going rapidly exponential - almost doubling in 20 days what SARS reached in 100 days.
8 countries have effectively quarantined China in various ways. AND NOW - China has told everybody to calm down, that it will maintain financial stability and pump their market with USD$173 Billion from Monday 3rd February 2020. The FED and Australia are considering similar moves.
The global economic disruption in what was a 'risk-off' situation, is gonna be serious and probably last well over a year. This doesn't mean that the markets will tank over the next year. It means expect bearish pressure.
Think also about an 'endpoint'. How will anybody know when it is safe to open borders, trade and travel in China?
If the VIX gets above 53 there is serious trouble!
Declarations & Disclaimers: For the avoidance of doubt, this post is only about potential impact of a virus in financial contexts. I take no comfort at all in people suffering and dying. Whilst I am sorry about the human consequences, I deal with the markets as an instrument - like any other. It is not illegal or immoral to exploit the movement of any market for any cause. As usual this is not trading advice. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
WATCH OUT - POTENTIAL BLACK SWAN EVENT - VIRUS ATTACKA 'black swan' event is something out of the blue - that creates systemic risk. The 2019-nCOV (virus) is potentially one such thing.
The markets have not been prepared for this - at all. Could it be the pinprick that pops the 'tech bubble' that influences markets globally?
The shock waves of this itty bitty virus are totally unexpected. I go into some price action in the last few days, on the DJI and explain some of the dangerous features of nCOV.
China has basically been quarantined by the international community. This is certainly not good news. It's an unofficial quarantine. Lots of nations have limited contact or isolated China in various ways.
The virus is one of the most spreadable in history of all viruses but with a low lethality. That means millions of people could be infected but only about 2% killed by it. And that means the death toll could be serious over weeks, months or years.
There is no treatment at this time and no vaccine. Even if a vaccine is developed, vaccinated the whole world is not a workable option. In addition the wide spread of the virus means that it can mutate - rendering any vaccine developed, as ineffective.
The next big question is when will this quarantine on China be lifted. It could take months, or probably years - depending on what the nCOV virus does next.
There is chatter in the blogosphere that the FED will come to rescue the markets from the virus.. like pfffft! The FED has a lesson coming to them.
Disclaimer : This screencast is not intended to advise on taking a position in the markets or making transactions. If you lose your money in the markets, kindly sue yourself.
When the S&P500 catches the fluIn this screencast I look at the S&P500 on the 4H time frame only. I show how I estimate the probable direction (this does not mean prediction).
I give some information on why the markets are reacting to a low grade coronavirus called 2019-nCOV (same family as MERS and SARS).
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. If you make decisions based on this screencast and lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
How do virus attacks affect Wall Street?This is a very short presentation on how previous virus attacks have affected Wall Street (daily time frame). I go back to 2013, plotting what was seen.
This is relevant in relation to the recent Wuhan coronavirus (WCV). Mainstream media have referred to WCV as a "deadly virus". This is frankly nonsense based on current data.
The case fatality ratio (CFR) is an important measure in assessing lethality of a virus. The CFR for influenza A(H1N1) in 2009 was 0.45%. For ebola virus, it is overall >50%.
For the Wuhan coronavirus (WCV) which may not be one virus strain, the CFR is currently estimated at <3% (I cannot provide references here but people can contact me for links to info).
But hold on - the 3% is not (at this time) for large populations of those infected. The average age group of people who have been killed WCV is currently around 60. Did I say 'average'? Yes - I did (which means I know there are some people who have been around 30). Attribution of WCV has also not been 100% caused by WCV either. The 'average' age group may fall (or increase) with time.
In summary
- ebola is definitely a deadly virus - the markets barely flinched if at all to Ebola.
- estimates of lethality of WCV are currently not robust.
My conclusion -
The media is responsible for selling its news.
The media have been irresponsible in feeding panic, in selling its news.
News and panic are what rules markets more than hard facts and figures.
Will the WCV outbreak be the pin that pricks the bubble? I don't know. It could well be the first of the dominoes to fall, setting off a chain reaction for slow burn down - instead of a serious correction. OR - WCV may well be insignificant. If it is, then expect a raging bull market to rebel! I cannot foresee the future!
Declarations & Disclaimers: I am not a virus expert, nor a financial expert. This post is opinion only based on data fully available in the public domain. Opinions here are not be be relied upon in making financial or trading decisions. If you who reads this makes such decisions, your losses are your own - should you suffer a loss. You sue yourself if you lose money.
VIRUS CAUSES WALL STREET TO SHUDDERNews of one person in the USA being struck my a Chinese coronavirus, cause the markets to retreat on a northward charge. Only some 200+ points. Not much but it is significant.
The DJI is highly overpriced at the moment for a whole load of reasons, and it's very twitchy. The fact that the markets reacted to this story at all shows the twitchiness. It's just one case. But usually insiders know before the mainstream media what's going on.
News is that moves markets, cuz it's about sentiment more than fundamental value. Many things have shaken the market in recent months. People have been watching closely and nervously - guessing what will prick the bubble to cause a pop.
Stay tuned. Anything that rocks this market is worth watching for those who need to get out, or short.
This is not advice to short this market. If you lose your money kindly sue yourself.
DJI - outlook and virus situation update.I show how trends can be assessed. Word on the coronavirus is also explored..
