VIX is getting ready for that huge pop imoThis is getting super close. Wont rule out a fake down and then move up to above $60 level.
Some out there made a bet with Apr 2023 100 Calls for $4mil plus on Fri
VIX CBOE Volatility Index
VIX is telling you somethingVIX already broke the curve and even retested it.
We will doomp heavily in the coming weeks/months.
Don't invest long-term for now.
Upside Bias, 17th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Despite the retracement lower on Friday following the Thursday price surge, I am still looking for further upside. This holds true as long as the we don't have a daily close below the lows. As mentioned previously, I am expecting a re-test of the low, this may be that test or it is still to come in the near future. My medium-term outlook (for a few weeks) is also biased upwards.
➤ Clearly we are in a risk-off environment where performance of DJIA > S&P500 > NASDAQ. Therefore, I'm not expecting any long lasting bounce until there is evidence that NASDAQ is taking the lead. Riskier stocks should lead any substantial long-term rebound.
➤ I'm long with +40% exposure all in European indices. I would like to add US exposure but keeping risk low at this juncture is the right call IMO. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Earnings should play a greater role this week and next as all the big names will be releasing results and providing future outlook.
BTCUSDT Final Support Stages - LONGUpdate to BTC/USDT next Weeks forecast
From our analysis it appears that although there is a chance of price retracting to 18,500 mark.
In overall judgement the chance is so small ,considering the last weeks' green hammer candle close and this weeks close above last weeks open.
With almost 100% certainty market is going to take another sharp Bull run on Monday towards 21,500 mark and current support shall remain entrenched @ 18,900 mark.
USDJPN correction expected?I don’t really trade Forex, unless something catches my attention.
USDJPN has been climbing for a while now. On weekly chart it is overbought and even the strongest move need to take a brake once in a while,
Either if you look on EMAs or Fibonacci levels, correction can reach area 139-141.2.
It doesn’t mean it will but according to my analisys, most of the indices look like they they’re going for an upside move. With VIX being overbought as well.
The markets might get a bit more positive until November US rates decision.
Personally I think we might not get lower than 140.
Im not a professional trader and this is not a trading advice. Trading is risky. Always do your own analisys.
Skew IndexI put together a chart that shows the Skew Index, with the SPX, VIX, advancing-declining issues, and Put/Call Ratio.
Are you ready for this?Traders,
Something tells me that many traders are not going to be expecting what's to come. Let's take a look at what I am expecting for short-term, mid-term, and longer-term market price action.
Stew
SPX500 - bears still in controlThe failed to hold the channel trendline, so it's looking bad for bulls. A quick update on what I'm seeing with the structure on SPX, SPY and the VIX.
Junk Bonds as Indicator of Overall Market RiskThe decline in junk bonds is generally an indication of high market risk. In this type of enviornment, investors of junk bonds demand higher yields to compensate for additional risks.
As bond yields and prices are inversely correlated, higher yields cause junk bond prices to fall; a repeating pattern over the last two decades.
When markets face a significant crisis, junk bonds fell along with other risk assets.
VIX Volatility only beginningVIX is showing higher lows and has broken above the Brim Level of a Cup and Handle.
This is problematic for a trader as it means a lot more jumpiness is coming.
It's also broken out of its downtrend on both chart and the RSI.
With the inflation rate going up, interest rates soon to go up in November and with more money going to be printed in the economy - this isn't good for the markets in the medium term.
Time to risk less per trade, I'd imagine.
Long Volatility into AugustBy now you all know the drill. Let's start with an initial framework, assess the current environment, and evaluate all below questions.
are we trending or ranging?
- a series of higher highs, higher lows
- sellers structure is broken, we are tracking whether buyers will protect or find it difficult to hold
discount?
- we are tracking the lows for the previous wave block
- Support 20, Pivot 25, Resistance 38
managing trade?
- Trading and assess based on quarters, 00, 25, 50, 75
- Market participation in form of current strength/weakness, when market is weak we are sellers and when strong we are buyers
This position, technically speaking, is very similar to the swing we traded in 2020. Buyers have developed a structure of higher highs, and higher lows, and desire their chance to go over to a direct attack on the highs.
In this case the result is not certain; but since attacking in this fashion is characteristic of a volatility event. There are two lines, assuming the 20 support holds. In the first case, as well we need to track 25, the combinatory breakout of 25 will allow buyers to continue their summer dance with a romantic hue, unlocking 38 for August.
VIX reached target, now correctionIt looks like VIX isn't yet ready to break entirely - Double top with the second one being curvy (lack of power) - Expecting this relief to play out now.
Roller-Coaster, 14th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ That was some ride. Pre-CPI markets pumped higher by 1.5% before plummeting post data to -4% for the Nasdaq. Only then to climb back up and finish strongly by over 2%. Similar price action happened on 24th Feb 2022 as the war started in Ukraine. TBH, I expected this movement but certainly not the extent of the volatility.
➤ I initially took off my long DAX position pre-CPI during the pump. DAX was significantly outperforming other indices on the day so I took some profits. That meant I had minimal exposure to the CPI data as I was only net long with 10% exposure. As prices plummeted, there was very minor movement in my portfolio as my long STOXX50 position held up better than my NASDAQ shorts.
➤ By the end of the European trading day, I bought back the DAX position and cut the NASDAQ shorts. Leaving me with +40% long exposure. After US market close, I decided against adding US long positions at this stage given the size of the upward move. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: We may get some continuation of the rally but there should be an attempt of the re-test of the low at some stage.
VIX Rejects AgainVIX has had yet another rejection off the key level. This resulted in strong short covering in stocks just as retail traders all agreed that the market could never go up again and could only go down.
We are at the edge of economy. Rate hikes has given zero affect We are at the edge of economy. Rate hikes has given zero affect on this money printing cycle with inflation at its highest. everything shows we need a 50% crash from todays levels leading to a 80% crash.Economy is now worse!
VIX is down all day!Should of been super green from the open.
Should of pay attention to it in am, would of save me from some stops
31.50 is the support
This will blow, still coiling
