GMTUSDT LONG 1HTHIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
Conditions
1.Fibonacci level:✅
2.Bollinger band:✅
3.Momentum:✅
4.Price action:✅
5.Volume:✅
6.1h tf:✅
7.4h tf:✅
8.1d tf:✅
Volumepriceanalysis
CENTURY PLY – Poised to move higher?Almost six months of consolidation. Now moved out of the consolidation zone with volume support. The Relative strength is turning positive. Money flow and buying pressure is also positive adding to the strength. Increased delivery-based buying is also seen.
Interestingly, in the weekly TF we can see a nice volatility contraction pattern, making the probability of up move higher. However, 744 is a last point of supply on the weekly TF.
Once the stock moves above 744 it will move much higher. The probability of that happening is quite High. A stock to track.
NITIN SPINNERS LTDA nice consolidation pattern. Now, moving beyond the BC bar. However, the volume is not picking up. But the delivery volume is picking indicating interested buying. A good close beyond 370 with volume support will take the stock to next lap of higher prices.
RADICO - Update Early November we saw that that the stock was recovering and at 1284 levels, we anticipated that the stock will test 1450 levels. Now that stock has tested 1450 levels and also crossed the Price Rejection zone and the last point of supply of 1475 as well. The stock looks poised to move higher. Relative strength, Buying pressure and Money flow all are positive and rising. But we need to see more supply. If volume comes in the next of couple of Bars the stock will move much higher.
CRWD - US cybersecurity play If this market will find traction and have a follow-through day, I will bet on CRWD being one of the next up-cycle leaders.
IBD 94 Relative strength and 99 Composite and EPS ratings are markers of a superb company. The industry group is 35 out of 197. High double and triple quarter earnings growth and stable 40+ sales growth for 3 qrts in a row; with stable 35+ ROE; Up/Down volume of 1.5; double digits analyst estimates of 24/25 EPS growth and increasing number of institution last qrt... all these make me call this stock a perspective leader.
From the technical perspective, notice how well the stock price holds and builds the high-handle close to 2023 highs, while general index (line above) is in a downward momentum being almost 10% of the highs. Unfilled gap-up on 31Aug (green circle) is also a sign of strength to me.
I want the price to subside more in volatility to the right side of the handle, creating a tight 3-4% risk pivot and maybe an inside day before breaking out above 172 pivot. That would signal and ideal entry point for my strategy with very tight risk. Although if price decides not to wait and will proceed with definite move above 172 pivot with supportive volume and will be hesitant to buy/add to the position, expecting the price to move to next resistance 194-206 target area.
Trading thesis is wrong if price moves bellow: 157 area
JUBILANT FOOD
The stock was recovering from a big down move. Then it encountered a BC bar. It took more than three months to come out of the supply shadow of the BC bar. Now it has succeeded to come out of the supply shadow and cleared the last point of supply as well. This accumulation of three month has given enough strength to the stock to move up further. All key supporting parameters like Relative strength, buying pressure and Money flow are positive. A loo at the delivery volumes also indicates committed buyers accumulating the stock. Chances of the stock testing the supply zone cannot be ruled out. Anyway, the stock is poised to move higher. In the weekly chart as well the stock is making Higher Highs and Higher lows. The next target is likely to be 650
MRPL - A stock to WatchThe stock up move was stopped by a "BC" bar. Then the stock was push down to the 50 DMA. Taking support from there the stock started to recover. Now seems to succeed in crossing above the the supply shadow of the "BC" bar in the second attempt. Money Flow and Buying Pressure were already positive . The Relative strength is also turning positive. A good close above 122 with volume support will take the stock to the next lap of the up Move up. A stock to watch.
BHEL - Ready for the next lapWe have been following this stock from 83 levels in July when it formed a nice VCP pattern and was ready to move up. Then after a encountering a “BC” bar the stock was stuck inside the supply shadow of the “BC” Bar. After some consolidation and a “spring’ the stock started to recover. Now it has come out of the shadow of the “BC” bar and has crossed above the previous Rejection zone with good volume support. All key parameters like Relative Strength, Buying pressure and Money Flow are positive. Now the stocks is ready to go to the next lap of the up move.
EXIDE - Attempting to go to next levelAfter facing Rejection around 280 levels, the stock retreated to below 50 DMA levels. After taking support from a previous Support Zone, the stock started to recover. Now the stock is attempting to take out the previous Price rejection Zone. The up move is supported by a positive Relative Strength, Volume and Money Flow. The Buying pressure is also positive. A good close will take the stock to next new level. Looks good to close.
BRIGADE - UpdateAs anticipated in my last post the stock moved up. Up by 10% now. Negotiating another supply area now. All favorable conditions remain the same. Above 750 the stock will move up much further.
L_TFH - A stock to WatchA stock to watch. In the month of July when we encountered a BC bar, We did expect that the stock will face supply and struggle to move up. The stock did face lot of supply within the "Shadow of the BC bar". After getting pushed below the 50 DMA the stock was on the recovery move. Finally it is attempting to move past the shadow of the "BC" bar. Relative strength and buying pressure remains positive. However the volume and money flow is still lacking. A good move past with volume support will propel the stock into a higher trajectory.
Also look at the below chart as well
Chambal Fertilizers - Tringle BreakoutTriangle Breakout with Strong Volume & Momentum
SL - 287
Nearest resistance- 350 to 365
BRIGADE – Poised to Go Higher ?The stock after facing a “BC” bar retraced to the sub 50 DMA levels. Then recovered and moving past the supply shadow of the “BC Bar and making a new high. The relative and absolute strength are positive. There is also Money coming into the stock. The delivery volumes are high indicating committed buying. The poised to go higher.
Positive Earnings Gaps Seldom Fill: NFLXTo follow up on my analysis of NFLX from Wednesday ...
Despite the market moodiness and selling, NASDAQ:NFLX reported well above estimates.
HFTs triggered a huge gap up on heavy pre-open order flow yesterday. Volume was also huge, so smaller funds' VWAPs triggered and retail traders chased the stock while Pro Traders and HFTs made some big profits.
Gaps up on positive earnings seldom fill completely. There is a strong support level at $350 which the gap up now confirms.
2023 True Market Leader - Does it has more potential? VRT has been up more than 200% since late April 2023 bottom, demonstrating key true market leader characteristics in terms of price advance, volume profile and fundamentals.
Look at how well and orderly price was following along the 8 EMA and later 21 EMA since the break-out from a large 195 days base (with two unfilled gaps first in Apr and in later in May).
On the fundamental side, one my notice:
Exceptional relative strength to the SNP500;
Top EPS and IBD Composite Index;
Triple digit growth in analyst estimates for EPS for 23 and double digits for 24;
Jaw-dropping triple digits earnings growth for 3 qrt in a raw;
Continues double digits sales growth;
Improving ROE;
And doubling amount of institutional sponsorship by Sep23;
Management owns 10%
I don't have reliable ElliotWave pattern on VRT, but from the market symmetry concept, I see the next important macro resistance zone at 47-51 area, where 47 is the 100% extension of the move from the bottom of 2020 to the top of 2021.
The history of true market leaders teaches us, that the stocks the doubles and triples have a higher historical odds of doing it again in the next bull-cycle.
It this correction in the indexes is over and the general market has a plan to continue its advance in Q4, my thesis is that VRT shall continue being the top choice for the growth investors and trader.
Trading parameters:
actionable if price breaks out the 39 pivot with volume. Short-mid term long thesis is wrong bellow 36 and fully invalidated bellow 35 areas.
YNDX - Ideal support zone to start the launch YNDX has landed perfectly into the lowest border of my ideal support zone of my wave (iv) projection.
Until 2320 holds, I will expect the price to:
1. Move above the short-term 8/21 EMA and long 50D MA and 10W MA;
2. Form the right side of the cup with buying volume predominating above any selling volume;
3. Any low-cheat/cheat or handle area break-out pivot to emerge, providing the low-risk entry point.
What also provides me with confidence to expect the re-launching of the upward moving trend (although price is bellow the 10w MA) is the absence of any meaningful selling volume. The correction so far is below 20% and looks orderly.
The analysis and the investment thesis is fully wrong bellow 2320 area.
TSLA - Price action and Volume are trending oppositelyBased on analysis of Price Action and Volume together, we can see that current volume is trending higher while the Price has Red TrapZone formed. Therefore there is NO VALID Trade Bias. Price action analysis is performed by TrapZone Pro.
I published a "Volume Only" analysis using the Unusual Market Volume Detector as well to form a contrast. Price action only tells one half of the story, the other half is Volume. So when we put both together we get the complete picture.
Short-Term Trend Pattern!The candlestick pattern indicates a price action to break out R1 price resistance without volume support which shows low conviction and interest from buyers. Therefore, the price is more likely to continue moving up because of the less resistance from the seller.
The price action uptrend move is not in tandem with the positive trend where MACD and RSI didn't indicate a supportive technical reading. Therefore, details technical analysis is required.
Let's save SJC in WL and watch out for price action uptrend move with support from volume together aligned with positive technical reading from MACD and RSI.
R 0.545, 0.570
S 0.455
AVTR - Base BuildingAVTR had formed a double bottom since 27 Apr but it was not until 19 Jul that it began to gain momentum to the upside, rising and staying above a mini neckline @ 21.80 since 21st Jul.
It is expected to announce earnings tomorrow on 28 July. Should the stock rise on earnings release, I would be interested to accumulate on the next dip. However, as the stock is still within its basing formation with neckline @ 25.20, it is ok to wait conservatively till a confirmed rise above this neckline before accumulating (on dips). There is still a lot of room to move should it manage to rise above the base.
p/s: it is always safer to look trade setups AFTER earnings announcements. (disclaimer).
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is (probably the most) important! Take care and Good Luck!
SOUND HOUND AI Uptrend possible runSound Hound under the Umbrella of AI plays. Slowly curving up out of Inverse head and shoulders.
The Significance of Price Action and Volume in TradingIn the world of trading, successful traders understand that relying on indicators or searching for magic solutions is not the key to profitable trades. Instead, the focus should be on two critical elements: price action and volume. By delving into these aspects, traders can gain valuable insights into market strength, identify the aggressors, and make informed decisions. This post idea will explore the importance of price action and volume, the role of indicators, the concept of volume, the auction market theory, the influence of economic factors, and the synergy of price action and volume analysis.
In trading, it is crucial to prioritize price action and volume over a reliance on indicators or supposed magical indicators. Indicators often fail to capture the complexity of market dynamics, while price action and volume provide tangible insights into market behavior. These two factors become the foundation for understanding market strength, trends, breakouts, and breakdowns.
One of the key aspects of trading is determining who holds the upper hand in the market: the buyers or the sellers. By closely observing price action and volume, traders can identify which group is more aggressive. Recognizing the aggressor enables traders to align their strategies accordingly and make informed decisions.
Having an excessive number of indicators on a trading chart can create noise and hinder decision-making. The clutter of indicators may lead to confusion and obscure the true signals the market is conveying. Traders are advised to streamline their charts and focus on the essential elements of price action and volume to gain clarity and precision in their analysis.
Volume represents the number of transactions occurring in the marketplace. Contrary to common misconceptions, volume does not indicate the presence of more buyers or sellers. Instead, it provides insights into the aggressiveness of the market participants. Higher volume suggests increased interest and participation, while lower volume may indicate a lack of interest or a consolidation phase.
The auction market theory provides a framework for understanding how buyers and sellers interact in the market. Market participants aim to find an equilibrium in price through limit orders and market orders. This theory enables traders to observe the bids, asks, and execution of orders in real-time. By monitoring these dynamics, one can decipher the strength and direction of the market.
Volume analysis can unveil valuable information about support and interest levels. When price is rising and volume follows suit, it indicates a strong support level as there is substantial interest from buyers at those price levels. Conversely, if price is rising, but volume remains low, it suggests a lack of interest and may indicate a weak support level.
Price action reflects the market's behavior and communicates valuable insights. Traders analyze candlestick patterns, supply and demand zones, and support and resistance levels to gain a comprehensive understanding of price dynamics. Price action reveals trends, breakouts, and breakdowns, providing traders with crucial information for making trading decisions.
While the market typically trades around levels perceived as fair value, economic news, announcements, and other factors can disrupt this balance. Such events create imbalances that trigger aggressive buying or selling. Traders must consider the impact of economic factors on price action and volume, as these elements play a vital role in identifying potential trading opportunities.
The true power lies in combining price action and volume analysis. By leveraging both aspects, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the market's strength, trends, and potential breakout or breakdown situations. The interplay between price action and volume provides comprehensive insights into market dynamics, enabling traders to make well-informed trading decisions.
Price action and volume are indispensable elements in successful trading. By prioritizing price action and volume analysis over indicators, traders can develop a better understanding of market behavior and make informed decisions. Volume serves as a window into market interest and support levels, while price action communicates the market's behavior and trend patterns. By synergizing price action and volume analysis, traders can unlock valuable insights and enhance their trading strategies.
For Friday trade, with simple chart setting, easily see that aggressive buying lead open above then aggressive selling pushing down price
The Power of Volume: Understanding Volume Analysis in TradingIn the dynamic world of financial markets, successful traders know that understanding volume analysis is crucial for making informed trading decisions. Volume, the number of shares or contracts traded during a given period, provides valuable insights into market dynamics and helps identify potential trends, reversals, and the strength of price movements. In this Educational article, we will explore the power of volume and its significance in trading, uncovering the key principles of volume analysis, practical strategies for incorporating it into your trading toolkit.
📊 The Basics of Volume Analysis 📊
Volume analysis is the study of trading activity represented by the volume of shares or contracts traded within a specified time frame. By analyzing volume alongside price movements, traders gain insights into market sentiment, liquidity, and the overall strength of a trend. Here are some fundamental concepts to consider:
Volume and Price Relationship: Volume often accompanies significant price moves. When volume surges during an uptrend or downtrend, it suggests increased participation and conviction from market participants. Conversely, low volume during consolidations or indecisive periods can indicate a lack of interest or involvement.
Volume Patterns: Patterns in volume can reveal important clues about market dynamics. For example, a gradual increase in volume during an uptrend may suggest a healthy and sustainable trend, while a sudden spike in volume near key support or resistance levels could signal potential reversals.
📊 Analyzing Volume in Different Market Scenarios 📊
Volume analysis can be applied across various market scenarios to gain insights into the underlying dynamics. Here are a few examples:
Breakouts: When a stock or asset price breaks out of a key resistance level with high volume, it suggests strong buying interest and potential continuation of the uptrend.
Reversals: A significant increase in volume accompanied by a sharp price reversal may indicate a trend exhaustion and potential reversal. Volume analysis helps validate potential reversal signals.
Divergence: When the price is moving in one direction while volume is moving in the opposite direction, it can indicate a weakening trend. Divergences between volume and price can provide valuable early signals of trend reversals.
Example: FINPIPE _ breakout with huge volume & reversal candle at retest (at support) of breakout with huge volume
📊 Integrating Volume Analysis into Your Trading Strategy 📊
To effectively incorporate volume analysis into your trading strategy, consider the following tips:
Confirmation: Volume analysis can act as a confirmation tool for other technical indicators or chart patterns. For example, if a price breakout occurs with high volume, it confirms the strength of the breakout.
Relative Volume: Compare current volume to historical averages to gauge the intensity of trading activity. Unusually high or low volume relative to average volume can highlight potential trading opportunities.
Multiple Time Frames: Analyzing volume across different time frames can provide a broader perspective on market dynamics. Higher time frames can reveal long-term trends, while lower time frames offer insights into intraday trading activity.
📊 Volume Indicators 📊
To assist traders in analyzing volume effectively, several technical indicators have been developed. These indicators help visualize and interpret volume data in meaningful ways. Here are a few commonly used volume indicators:
Volume: The most basic volume indicator, volume bars represent the volume traded during each price bar or candlestick. By comparing the height of volume bars across different periods, traders can identify anomalies or significant shifts in trading activity.
Moving Average in volume indicator: Moving Average calculates the average volume over a specified period. It smoothens out volume data, making it easier to identify volume spikes.
On-Balance Volume (OBV): OBV measures the cumulative volume by adding or subtracting the volume based on whether prices close higher or lower. It helps identify periods of accumulation or distribution and can provide early signals of trend reversals.
Wave Volume Divergence: A unique addition to volume indicators, this indicator enhances volume analysis by providing wave volume divergence and cumulative volume information. Traders can utilize this indicator to identify potential divergences between volume and price, as well as observe the cumulative volume trends.
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Keep exploring the power of volume analysis, and remember:
🌟 "Success in trading comes to those who diligently study the market and adapt their strategies." 🌟
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Correlations of Retail Stock Traders & Carl Jung's Archetypes Carl Jung, a renowned Swiss psychiatrist and psychoanalyst, introduced the concept of archetypes as universal patterns or symbols that reside in the collective unconscious.
Carl Jung's archetypes , rooted in the collective unconscious, offer profound insights into human behavior and decision-making processes.
(archetypes example would be the Devil and Angel on your shoulder, Jung beleives there is more to it that good and evil)
Retail stock traders, operating in a dynamic and often volatile market, are not exempt from these archetypal influences.
Let's explore the correlations between Jungian archetypes and how they impact the decision-making process of retail stock traders when executing trades.
The Hero Archetype:
The Hero archetype drives traders to conquer challenges and attain success. Within retail stock trading, this archetype encourages traders to take calculated risks, seize opportunities, and exhibit unwavering confidence in their decision-making abilities. While the Hero can inspire bravery and determination, traders must be mindful of impulsive and overly aggressive behaviors that may lead to irrational choices.
The Sage Archetype:
The Sage archetype embodies wisdom, knowledge, and the pursuit of truth. Retail stock traders influenced by the Sage archetype engage in extensive research, analysis, and due diligence before executing trades. They seek to understand market dynamics, uncover patterns, and leverage their intellectual prowess to make informed decisions. However, an excessive reliance on analysis may result in analysis paralysis, inhibiting timely execution.
The Jester Archetype:
The Jester archetype represents humor, spontaneity, and irreverence. In the world of retail stock trading, this archetype may manifest as traders who adopt a lighthearted approach and embrace risk with a sense of playfulness. Jester-influenced traders may be inclined to explore unconventional trades, pursue novelty, and seek excitement. Nevertheless, caution must be exercised to avoid impulsive or reckless decision-making.
The Caregiver Archetype:
The Caregiver archetype embodies compassion, empathy, and a desire to nurture others. In retail stock trading, traders influenced by this archetype prioritize socially responsible investing, seeking companies aligned with their values. They consider sustainable practices, ethical considerations, and impact investing as integral components of their decision-making process. However, emotional attachments to causes may cloud judgment, necessitating a balanced approach.
The Magician Archetype:
The Magician archetype symbolizes transformation, power, and the ability to manifest desired outcomes. Traders influenced by the Magician archetype possess intuitive market understanding and employ strategies that seem almost mystical. They may rely on technical analysis, precise timing, and sophisticated algorithms or trading systems. However, an overreliance on intuition without grounding in tangible data may result in unreliable decision-making.
The Shadow Archetype:
Carl Jung's concept of the shadow archetype represents the darker, suppressed aspects of the psyche. In retail stock trading, the shadow can manifest as greed, fear, impulsivity, or an inclination toward unethical practices. Traders must confront their shadows and acknowledge the potential biases and emotional influences that can cloud judgment. By bringing the shadow into conscious awareness, traders can make more objective and rational decisions.
Impact on Decision-Making Process:
The interplay between these archetypes and the shadow profoundly affects the decision-making process of retail stock traders. Awareness of these archetypal influences enables traders to leverage their strengths while mitigating potential pitfalls. Recognizing the shadow archetype's presence allows traders to confront their biases, manage emotions, and make more rational and ethical decisions.
Understanding the correlations between Carl Jung's archetypes and the decision-making process of retail stock traders sheds light on the intricate psychological factors at play within financial markets.
By recognizing and integrating these archetypal influences into their decision-making process, traders can enhance self-awareness, improve emotional regulation, and ultimately make more balanced, informed, and profitable trading decisions.
