W-patterns
ADAUSD Basic Short Term Trend AnalysisImportant things to note:
A bullish trend is confirmed after 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows
A bearish trend is confirmed after 2 lower highs and 2 lower lows
Price movements must retrace between 30%-60% to be considered
Any retracement outside of that range will be ignored
A trend is considered "in play" until the confirmation of an opposite trend.
OFF TOPIC - BTC looks like it has formed a bullish pennant to me. It is my opinion that it will consolidate before a move.
Important Dates to Take Note of:
ADA Alonzo (smart contracts) go live Sep 12 2021
ADA Summit Sep 25-26 2021
So right now volume is fairly low so the bulls and the bears are trying to take this opportunity move the price since it is so weak. If you take a look at the ADA 1D, you will not see much because there hasn't been enough days to produce anything worthwhile, the same goes for all of the other longer timeframes. You can consider all of the trends in the larger timeframe being an uptrend. So, we will take a look at the 1H timeframe and I have changed it to a line graph to make it easier to see what I am talking about. At this moment we have a very short term uptrend which was confirmed by 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows. We had one retracement of about 90% which invalidates the movement. ADA will be considered to be in a very short term uptrend until we see a confirmation of a downtrend, it is that simple. The same can be said about a downtrend. Now I know people that use 1 higher high and 1 higher low and vice versa for downtrends, however I follow the traditional form of technical analysis which consists of a signal and then confirmation. Since this is a very short term trend and the fact that there are higher levels of volatility, you can assume this trend will go back and fourth with plenty of invalid retracements. So, now that you know how it works, you can take a look for yourself and follow along. Keep in mind, I believe there is a strong basing pattern which was formed and a quite a bit of consolidation so despite the fact that everyone has a doomsday scenario for ADA and the market in general, I am not convinced at the moment. I really hope this helps you understand how trends work and how to identify them so you are not caught off guard. Like I have said before, trends flip, and sentiment changes very quickly, hopefully this helps you keep up with the changes. I should also note that each trend at a larger timeframe is more powerful than a smaller one. Therefore, if your secular trend, primary trend, intermediate trend, short term trend is considered an uptrend, and the very short term trend is considered a downtrend, the bearish momentum will be very less impactful. It would be like a fish trying to swim upstream. I will continue to keep an eye on ADA and update you on the movements.
Also, it is worth mentioning that TradingView has reached out to me and offered me very kind words, and showed me some support. I thought that was very nice of them and it was very unexpected. Though, I never planned for any of this to happen at all. I was constantly making charts for myself and my friends and some of them suggested I post them publicly. I never imagined any of this would happen, if I did, I would have waited until I had a bit more free time LOL. However, it makes me really happy to know that people are learning from my charts and hopefully it will encourage you all to learn technical analysis for yourselves! In a couple weeks I will have more time to make the educational content you have been asking for, and I will likely chart a wide spectrum of assets. Thank you again for all of the support, it means more to me than you know!
Now for some good news. As a person who follows ADA closely, I know that the adoption of the platform will happen very quickly with the release of smart contracts on the 12th of September. In fact, I think it was built with such a great foundation, I might just do an entire post on the fundamentals of Cardano sometime in the future. Pretty soon, we will see NFTs being created, DeFi, applications being developed, and overall strong adoption of the ADA blockchain platform as a whole. If there will be any immediate reason for ADA to move higher, it will likely be news coming from the summit on the 25-26 of September. So I would keep an eye on their twitter accounts around that time.
Again, I apologize for having less time to post at the moment, but that will change in a couple weeks.
I am going to make a video soon teaching everyone my approach to charting. I will cover the entire workflow process I go through. I hope you enjoy it.
Tell me what you think?
This is not financial advice. DYODD.
Note!!!!!!!
Please do not post my charts on other people's posts in order to say they are wrong. People have different opinions and different takes on technical analysis and that is ok. For example, I do not use a lot of technical indicators for crypto, I focus on patterning, trends, and candles. There is no right or wrong way to do this. I have studied it all and I have my own style. I just know what works for me. That being said, I do not want upset analysts coming to my page because someone posted my chart on their page saying they are wrong. I understand why that would bother them, because I would not like it either. Therefore, please refrain from doing so, everyone is entitled to their own opinion and no one is right 100% of the time. If you are not learning everyday you are not growing and that includes me as well. Please respect other analysts with the same respect you show me. Thanks again everyone!
Gold 2nd sep Now gold is waiting for the NFP news to decide its direction to either move up /down.
A breakout above 1830 would trigger a bullish run and upwards to 1900.
But there seems to be a lot of support in the region 1792-1808 and 1808 is acting strong support with 1820 a resistance to seeing a further upside to 1830.
Overall it's not clear and gold is gearing up to have big movement after the consolidation area comes to an end.
BTC Head & Shoulders Trendline Break Down PlsLooks like bitcoin is heading for a breakdown of a head and shoulders pattern. Because of trendline break as well, it could be a better indicator that number go down and the likely of it going down increases. Though, its always good to buy the dip in bitcoin. Once it reaches the end of the blue line, it could be a time take a chance at buying again. But for now, down pls.
EUR/NZDEUR/NZD is looking like it is coming to the end of its correction there for i am looking for buy opportunities.
I would like to see the price come down further before entering a long position but if price decides to keep pushing up i will wait until price has broken the trendline & re tests structure.
dow has trendline resistance it could break.all markets are trying to climb out of the hole this morning. they could do it, but with a selloff fresh in our memories, it is very hard to be a buyer, knowing that at any point the sellers could regain their confidence and try dropping it again.
From a risk management standpoint this lowers the probability of finding a stop loss in a protected area. with the threat of bears in the air, there essentially isn't a protected area, which means you can probably only rely on pattern breakouts, which I'm not really seeing much of. They have been forming, but they haven't initiated big volatile moves like you would see when a market has clearly picked a direction.
update on bitcoin poised to dumpSo been stepping out on time frame and looking at the current run up as a smaler fractal of the run up to the ATH, and found some amazing confluence and patterns emerge as i drew this chart up, which shows that we are in a mirror image but on smaller time frame of the run up to ATH
3 simple cheat sheetsHere are three very easy to follow cheat sheets;
Candles;
There are several patterns both bearish and bullish - here is just a "welcome to" for you newer traders.
Then we have patterns - as per main image;
These are useful to help spot reversals and continuations of trend.
Lastly, we have the Divergence.
Other educational content recently includes Fibonacci'
See related ideas for full post.
And how to assess Alt Coins;
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Rising wedge (BTC) 88% chance of breaking down (swing trade)Hello traders,
I know in my last post I said I wouldn't post until October 1st, but this is basically the same chart so figured why not.
We rejected the top of the rising wedge yesterday around $50,500.
100 day moving average is around $46,500 as of right now and climbing higher and higher after every close. This moving average is used for trends, once it breaks below into resistance we probably make our way towards $37,400.
I don't think we will be able to get above $52,000 and hold, so I'm calling the top somewhere below this level.
Stay safe, and have a great week.
👍
the big picture looking from a zoomed out perspective, i have seen the rising wedge we created for the all time high, i now looking at where we are can see we are possibly in a rising expanding wedge, with the end drop dependant on where we break, i have used the common thought of the 51k ish area to provide an idea of where we could break down to cheers love to hear your thoughts