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Hellena | GOLD (4H): Long to resistance area 2619.Dear colleagues, I believe that the upward movement in the impulse of the five-wave structure has begun. At the moment I believe that wave “1” has either completed or is being completed. In the first case, I expect a corrective movement in wave “2”. Wave “2” is indicated by the 50% Fibonacci level. This is the area of 2533. But the main direction is still upward. Therefore, the main target is the resistance area 2619. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
23
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Long to the resistance area 1.11587.Dear colleagues, in the last forecast I counted on the fact that wave “2” is completed, but now it is clear that it is not. I think that the price will complete wave “2” in the area of 100% - 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels. This is the range of 1.09788 - 1.08690. But from here I hope to see the beginning of the upward movement in wave “3”, because I still want to see an update of the highs and the nearest target is the resistance area at 1.11587. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
11
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 41687. Dear colleagues, I believe that the correction in the wave “2” has already taken place and therefore the impulse wave “3” has started, which according to the rules of wave analysis should reach the resistance area 41687. This is possible in 2 cases: 1) wave 1 has not been formed yet 2) after wave 2 in wave 3 (then this level will be reached 2 times). Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
BLACKBULL:DJ30.FLong
by Hellena_Trade
2
Bitcoin Cycles: Predicted Highs and Lows for 2025-2026 In this post, we will explore the Bitcoin market cycle in an effort to predict when the next cycle's top and bottom might occur, along with their potential price levels. Our analysis will cover several key concepts, including the Four-Year Cycle Theory, peak-to-peak and bottom-to-bottom analysis, cycle timing (peak-to-bottom), and the idea of diminishing returns, to support our forecast. Lets go! The Four-Year Cycle Theory: The Four-Year Cycle Theory in Bitcoin refers to a recurring market cycle that aligns with the Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. It suggests that Bitcoin's price moves in predictable cycles, driven largely by the dynamics of supply and demand, with the halving event acting as a significant catalyst. The theory suggests that each four-year cycle consists of four distinct phases: a. Accumulation (Bear Market Bottom) b. Uptrend (Bull Market Start) c. Parabolic Rise (Bull Market Peak) d. Correction (Bear Market Crash) The halving significantly reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is mined, which leads to a supply reduction. As supply decreases while demand stays the same or increases (due to growing adoption, media attention, etc.), the price often rises after the halving leading to phase c. the Parabolic Rise. With the basics of the Four-Year Cycle Theory covered, we can now analyze the intervals between cycle peaks and bottoms. Cycle interval analysis: A cycle analysis aims to identify recurring patterns by analyzing the time and price movements between key events, such as market tops (peaks) and bottoms, in the case of Bitcoin the halving event may also be considered. By examining these cyclical behaviors it is attempted to predict future tops and bottoms. The simplest and easiest-to-understand patterns are: 1. Top-to-Top The time difference between consecutive market tops 2. Top-to-Bottom The time difference between a market top to the next market bottom. 3. Bottom-to-Top The time difference between a market bottom to the next market top. 4. Bottom-to-Bottom The time difference between consecutive market bottoms. There are however also more advanced patterns such as: 5. All-Time-High Break to Top The time difference between a break of the last cycle top to the next market top. 6. Halving event to top The time difference between the halving event to the next market top. It can be observed that market cycle patterns in the 2nd cycle are shorter compared to those in the 3rd and 4th cycles. This is likely due to a lack of market maturation or the fact that it occurs before the first halving. What stands out is the similarity between the 3rd and 4th cycle patterns. By averaging these cycles, we can predict the 5th cycle. Even more striking is that several of these predictions closely match the subsequent cycle top AND bottom. The predicted upcoming market cycle top is predicted as follows: Based on the Top-to-Top pattern, the market top is forecasted for November 3, 2025. According to the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the top is expected on October 13, 2025. The Halving Event-to-Top pattern suggests a market peak on October 6, 2025. Additionally, the ATH-Break-to-Top pattern indicates that the Parabolic Rise of the current cycle will begin on December 9, 2024. The predicted upcoming market cycle bottom is predicted as follows: Based on the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 19th 2026. According to the Top-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 26th 2026. Here is a graphical overview of our prediction timelines: Price prediction using diminishing Returns: In the context of Bitcoin and market cycles, diminishing returns refers to the phenomenon where, as Bitcoin’s market matures and more capital or resources are invested, the incremental gains or price increases from additional investments become smaller over time. In essence this means the following: Bull Market Peaks: As a market cycle reaches its peak, diminishing returns become evident. The price increases become smaller and less dramatic each cycle compared to earlier in the cycle. Bear Market Corrections: Following the peak, the market often enters a correction phase where prices decline significantly. The decline also becomes smaller and less dramatic compared to earlier cycles. In essence, this results in less dramatic bull cycles but also less severe declines during bear markets: Here is a table overview with the values: The effects of diminishing returns are clearly observable, with one exception: the Cycle Top to the next Cycle Bottom in Cycle 3, which saw a 6x loss. However, if we take the effects of diminishing returns into consideration, we can make the following conclusions: The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Top-to-Top multiplier of 3.4x, meaning it is unlikely to exceed a price of 224K. The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Top multiplier of 20.5x, meaning it is even more unlikely to exceed a price of 333K. After considering the effects of diminishing returns, we believe a Top-to-Top multiplier in the range of 2 to 2.6 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle top price of $131,000 to $170,000. Regarding the next bear market Bottom: The next Cycle Bottom will likely be below the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Bot multiplier of 5.1x, meaning it will likely be below 83K. We believe a Bot-to-Bot multiplier in the range of 3 to 4 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle bottom price of $49,000 to $65,000. Final Conclusion: Predicted Cycle Top: The upcoming market cycle top is forecasted to occur in October or November 2025. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $131,000 to $170,000. Predicted Cycle Bottom: The upcoming market cycle bottom is forecasted to occur in October or November 2026. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $49,000 to $65,000. These predictions incorporate the effects of diminishing returns and historical cycle patterns.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Cryptonerds
2
Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to 38.2%-50% Fibo lvl`s 40137.Dear colleagues, after I realized that the price is in the upward impulse of wave “1” I realized that we should look for the beginning of the correction of wave “2”. At the moment I expect the price to rise a little more to the resistance area of 41379 and then start a corrective movement to the area of 38.2%-50% Fibonacci levels (40137). Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
BLACKBULL:DJ30.FShort
by Hellena_Trade
1
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Long to the resistance area 1.12998.Dear Colleagues, In the last forecast I expected a deeper correction, but it didn't happen. Well, so the price is in a strong bullish movement and at the moment I expect the price to complete wave “3” and start a small correction in wave “4” 1.10671, then I expect the resumption of the upward movement and the beginning of wave “5”, which will update the maximum 1.12331 and come to the resistance area 1.12998. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
10
XAUUSD: 2531 high will definitely be refreshedGold market fundamentals: Powell made a speech on interest rate cut last Friday. The September interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, and the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut has increased. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields continue to fall. The Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical crises are intensifying, and risk aversion continues to rise. Gold market technical aspects: From the 4H chart, gold prices still maintain an upward trend. Last week's correction did not effectively fall below the Fibonacci retracement of 0.618. According to the wave theory, from 2380 to 2530, this is the rise of AB waves, and now it is the extension of C waves. According to the amplitude of each wave, the high point of 2531 will definitely be refreshed. Trading strategy: Now it depends on when 2531 breaks through. If it breaks through directly, we will chase the rise. If there is no break, wait for the retracement to the 2510-2515 range to buy. Support range: 2515, 2510, 2500 Resistance range: 2531 Daily risk data: US durable goods orders monthly rate in July US Dallas Fed business activity index in August
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AntonyTP
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Short to 50% Fibo lvl 1.08580.Dear Colleagues, the price has completed wave “1” and I believe that the price will leave for the correction of wave “2”. At the moment I believe that it is possible to update the high of 1.1047 for the bears to gain strength, then I believe that the price will reach the area of 50% Fibonacci level of 1.08580. It is possible that the price will immediately start a downward movement, but the correction should take place. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Short
by Hellena_Trade
13
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to 50% Fibo lvl 76.54 (Wave "a").Dear colleagues, after the last target achievement the price is actively growing and I believe that this growth is not over yet, but I expect a correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 76.54. This movement is a corrective wave "b". After it I will consider the continuation of the upward movement, but at the moment the price needs wave "b". Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
2
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Long to resistance area of 1.10079. Dear Colleagues, after such a strong news background, I believe that the price will not go for a strong decline. In addition, I see wave "3", which has not yet completed its impulse. Therefore, I assume that the price will continue the upward movement and the minimum target for today resistance area 1.10079. It is quite possible that the price will gain strength and reach 1.08949 (50% Fibonacci level) first. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
7
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 5407.Colleagues, the price has moved down a lot, but that means we have an opportunity to enter a long position more favorably. I still believe that price is still in an upward move of great impulse, and now there is a complex correction taking place. I expect an uptrend to begin around the 5172 area. The first expected target is in the 5407 area. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
2
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to resistance area 40071.Dear Colleagues, in the last forecast the price almost reached the target 41680, but sharply started to decline. This means that the price is in a complex correction (WXY). I expect that the price has almost finished the downward movement in wave (Y), and will start an upward movement soon. The level where the price may come to is 38799, but in general I expect an upward movement at least to the area of 40071. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
BLACKBULL:DJ30.FLong
by Hellena_Trade
1
ULTRACEMCO: Wave ((iv)) Correction and Future ProjectionsTechnical Analysis on Exampled chart of Ultracemco Using Elliott Wave Theory As always, this analysis is provided for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Proper risk management and consultation with a financial advisor are recommended before making any trading decisions. Understanding Elliott Wave Principles Elliott Wave Theory is a robust tool used by traders to analyze market cycles and forecast future price movements by identifying repetitive wave patterns. One of the core principles of Elliott Wave Theory is that markets move in five waves in the direction of the main trend (Impulse Waves) followed by three corrective waves (Corrective Waves). These waves are labeled numerically as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 for impulse waves and alphabetically as A, B, C for corrective waves. A few key rules and guidelines include: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1. Wave 3 is usually the longest and never the shortest among waves 1, 3, and 5. Wave 4 should not enter the price territory of Wave 1 (in a standard impulse wave). Additionally, corrective waves come in various forms like Zigzags, Flats, and Triangles, and these patterns provide insight into the market’s corrective phases. Current Wave Count and Analysis On the daily time frame of Ultracemco, the price action has been unfolding within an Elliott Wave structure, and as of the latest data, the market appears to be in the process of completing wave ((iv)) in black. The chart shows that the recent price action likely represents a corrective wave ((iv)), unfolding as an (a)-(b)-(c) structure, where wave (a) has been completed, wave (b) has bounced as a corrective upward swing, and wave (c) is currently progressing downward. Key Observations for Wave ((iv)): Depth of Correction: The retracement level of wave ((iv)) typically spans between 38.2% to 50% of wave ((iii)). The current retracement indicates that wave ((iv)) could find support around these levels, aligning with typical Elliott Wave corrective behavior. Equality of Waves (a) & (c): One common characteristic within a Zigzag pattern is that wave (c) often equals wave (a) in terms of length. This potential equality provides a target zone for the completion of wave ((iv)). Retracement of Wave ((iii)): The analysis of wave ((iv)) should also consider the Fibonacci retracement levels of wave ((iii)). A significant support area is found near the 50% retracement level of the prior wave ((iii)), which could act as a pivot point for the next upward move. Potential Outlook for Wave ((v)) Once wave ((iv)) finds its completion, the next expected move is an upward swing as wave ((v)), which should unfold in an impulsive manner. Wave ((v)) often represents the final thrust in the direction of the trend and is typically characterized by strong momentum and breadth. Characteristics of Wave ((v)): Extension: Wave ((v)) may extend, particularly if wave ((iii)) was relatively short. In such cases, wave ((v)) could push the price higher than expected, sometimes exceeding the previous high established by wave ((iii)). Fibonacci Projections: A common target for wave ((v)) can be projected using Fibonacci extension levels of waves ((i)) through ((iii)). The 61.8%, 100%, and 161.8% extension levels serve as potential price targets. Volume and Momentum: Increased volume and momentum usually accompany wave ((v)) as it represents the final push in the direction of the prevailing trend. Traders should watch for any divergences in momentum indicators, as they often signal the end of the impulse wave and the start of a corrective phase. Conclusion In summary, the analysis suggests that Exampled chart of Ultracemco is likely completing wave ((iv)), with potential support zones emerging as the market corrects. Following the completion of wave ((iv)), the price is expected to rise in an impulsive wave ((v)), targeting new highs. However, it's crucial to remember that Elliott Wave analysis involves multiple possibilities, and traders should consider these insights as part of a broader trading strategy rather than standalone advice. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NSE:ULTRACEMCO
by RK_Chaarts
2
Wave Theory in Motion: Understanding Key PatternsElliott Wave Analysis: Example used chart of Eicher Motors (NSE: EICHERMOTORS) This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. All wave counts are subject to change as the market evolves. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Overview: In this analysis, we will delve into the current market structure of Eicher Motors through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory. The focus will be on identifying the wave count, potential price targets, and critical invalidation levels. Wave Count: Starting from the low at 4253, we have a clear impulsive structure labeled as wave (i). This wave consists of five smaller sub-waves, denoted by i, ii, iii, iv, v. The subsequent correction, wave (ii), retraced part of this impulsive move, unfolding in a typical corrective pattern, which then led to wave (iii). This wave extended higher, reflecting strong bullish momentum, followed by waves (iv) and (v) completing the impulsive sequence near 4976 where we had labelled as wave 3 completed. From there, an Expanded Flat corrective structure began, identified as a ((a))-((b))-((c)) pattern, which seems to have completed near ₹4,548. This marks the end of wave 4, a corrective wave within a larger impulsive sequence. Currently, the stock appears to be in the early stages of a new impulsive wave, labeled as wave (i) of a higher-degree wave ((i)) of one more higher degree wave 5. Elliott waves Theory based Target Assumptions: Given that wave 3 of the previous impulsive move ended around 4976, we anticipate that wave 5 should extend beyond this level. The first target for wave 5 would be around 5000, If momentum is strong, we could see further extensions. Invalidation Levels: Critical to any Elliott Wave analysis is understanding where the wave count might be invalidated: Nearest Invalidation Level: A break below 4548 would invalidate the assumption that wave (v) of wave C has completed. This would suggest that the corrective wave 4 is still ongoing or that a different corrective structure is forming. Main Invalidation Level: Should the price fall below 4253.85, it would invalidate the entire bullish wave count, implying that a much larger corrective pattern is unfolding, or a change in the trend direction is occurring. Conclusion: Eicher Motors is showing signs of a potential new impulsive move to the upside, However, traders should keep a close eye on the invalidation levels at 4548 and 4253.85. Breaching these levels would require a reevaluation of the current wave structure and could signal a deeper correction. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NSE:EICHERMOTEducation
by RK_Chaarts
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to support area 72.631 (Wave 3).Dear colleagues, I am still hoping for a downward movement, it's just that I have revised the wave formation because the price has gone quite high. At the moment, I believe that the price is now completing the movement in the senior wave "2". After reaching the resistance area of 84.00 - 85.00, I expect the beginning of the big wave "3"! Therefore, I suggest to take what happened as an opportunity to enter a short position in the most profitable way! Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
28