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''The Great Gartley Controversy''Here is a link to Scott Carney's own web-page, supposedly something he has written himself: harmonictrader.weebly.com I want to outline something interesting here. I quote from the article above: '' It is important to note that there are others who have assigned different Fibonacci numbers to the framework of the Gartley Pattern. However, they have used a variety of Fibonacci numbers at the D points, essentially labeling any AB=CD pattern as a Gartley if it completes at a 0.618 or 0.786 without regard for the precise alignment. This has created much confusion among the technical community and it has challenged the reputation of the pattern. '' Before going further into this, I also want to note a key takeaway from this quote. When he says that there are ''others'' who have assigned different Fibonacci numbers to Gartley patterns, he is talking about Larry Pesavento. Before ''The Harmonic Trader'' was released by Carney in 1998, Pesavento had already published books on the subject in 1997. It did not take Carney long to trademark harmonic patterns thus eliminating Pesavento's chances of ever mentioning it again. In the article above, Carney talks about people spreading misinformation, when in fact it turns out he's actually the one doing it. He went on to market it, and of course the brokers loved it! So enough about all this controversy.... Lets look at the chart! Here we see what appears to be a Gartley pattern formation with a completion at the 0.618 retracement! I wonder what Carney has to say about that? Should you wait for the 0.786 retracement to enter as the mainstream harmonic trading strategies suggest? Pesavento simply explained that what we are looking for is golden triangles Carney makes it very complicated. What are your thoughts on The Great Gartley Controversy?? Leave a comment below
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by MikulovicFOREX
1
Dollar Index Strength and USDJPY Targeting 106.800Hello Fellow Trader! Dollar Index Strength and USDJPY Targeting 106.800 DXY – US Dollar Index 6 month sell off due to FED stimulus and investors seeking larger returns from the equity market has possibly found a short-term floor. In September, DXY has already risen 1% and has more room to move technically as it eyes off 106.800. Key Points: - Price holding above the 200 EMA - Price holding above the 50 EMA - Price finds support at Fibonacci 50% of September range - Support cluster with trend line - The 50 EMA may be violated before the next move up. This is not a reason to exit the trade. - IF: The 200 EMA is met, it is critical to wait patiently for a candle reversal that you have back tested and proves to have an edge with USDJPY. - Optimal entry is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Key Levels: Support – 105.850, 106.000, 200 EMA Resistance – 106.550, 106.700, 106.800, 106.944 Entry Zone: Optimal entry provides the greatest reward to risk ratio while supporting entry is a zone for reversal signals. Optimal Entry – 105.960 Supporting Entry – 106.060 – 106.150 Candle Reversals for entry - Bullish Hammer - Bullish Engulfing - Bullish Piercing The Risk: As traders, it is your job to mitigate the risk and only trade structures that provide high probability and great reward to risk ratios. If you are not comfortable with defined exit levels, experiment with Moving Averages to help set solid exit rules to protect your capital. IF: Price breaks below 105.850 level and violates 200 EMA – this would suggest the structure is not in our favour and would be wise to reduce exposure or close the trade until a solid signal gives us reasons to re-enter. Reward / Reward Targets: Optimal Entry 105.960 – Target 1 106.550 = 4x Reward to Risk Optimal Entry 105.960 – Target 2 106.700 = 5x Reward to Risk Optimal Entry 105.960 – Target 3 106.944 = 6.7x Reward to Risk Supporting Entry 106.060 – Target 1 106.550 = 2x Reward to Risk Supporting Entry 106.060 – Target 2 106.700 = 2.7x Reward to Risk Supporting Entry 106.060 – Target 3 106.944 = 4x Reward to Risk
Long
by tradetheday
AAPLThink AAPL is about to have a big win or lose battle here.... currently in a pretty important supply zone that I think can really have a major impact. If zone rejects, can be a pretty decent slide down. If it gets through, it also has to contend with 304 which was set back in February during the sell off. A break above 304 can give it a really good chance to gap fill up to 313 and also be an extremely bullish indicator. This is getting down to one of those end of day things to watch as the closing price becomes evermore important. At end of day, with overall market health and what price action is doing, there might be potential to enter a short. If it hadn’t broke the recent high the other day of 299, I’d put more risk into whatever trade I make. Because of it breaking above 299, kind of throws some doubt as this is the second time in this supply zone. If price and momentum begin to fade with some divergence, I’m looking for a small short.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by PT_Marche
DISThink this could be another great post earnings opportunity. From being in a chop zone prior to earnings and then earnings accelerating price action to put it right into either a supply or demand zone. Obviously sold off right into a demand zone. This one is a little more "patience" involved as there are two demand zones I am seeing right on top of each other and the after hours market went into both of them, with price pre-market currently popped out of the first demand zone. What I like is that it is in a downward trending channel (so this is against the trend) but I like it because of the potential set up it is presenting. Coming out of the demand zones, I am going to be looking for a retrace back into the top zone to potentially set up a 1 -2 ; (1) - (2) wave count. If the demand zone holds and a higher low is made within the zone on retrace, this can give it a great opportunity to begin a Wave 3 impulse up to power up and out, hopefully breaking the downward trending channel. So, I'll be watching for a retrace back into demand. Likely we could go straight for the channel resistance and if this happens I'll still wait for a retrace. Confirmation of the set up playing out as planned will be a higher low in the demand zone and then a break above channel resistance. First price target will be $104. This will most likely just be a small risk play as the overall market health isn't looking too great in my opinion. If zone fails, and having already entered the second zone around the 97.64 price and that zone failing, the next stop down isn't until 94.
NYSE:DIS
by PT_Marche
4
LULUAnother one I'm watching today. LULU is just hanging out chopping up and down trying to figure out where to go. For this one, falling out from a previous wedge, my bias is to the upside ... eventually. Either 1) if we go to demand, I'd like to look for an entry long because generally after price breaks down from a wedge pattern, price action tends to retrace and backtest the wedge, with the wedge acting as resistance. Or 2) if we go straight back up to back test, just so happens that the back test area is in alignment with a supply zone. So, eventually I see LULU making its way back up to back test. If we go to demand zone below, I'll enter a small long with price target up to the supply zone. If we go up first to supply zone and back test, I'll watch as there is potential to re-enter the channel and go trough supply. My bias is to short once price enters supply.
NASDAQ:LULU
by PT_Marche
BAI keep seeing BA posts everywhere and the more I look at it the more I like it. It looks like we are in diagonal sold off into demand. Potentially a good risk/reward opportunity here. I’m going to actively watch this one and look to enter a long position. My long position will be less risk and I’ll look to go out to end of June / early July. Above 133.80 will provide more confirmation for me. Another option is to wait and see if that level is broken and then look for an entry on the back test of the wedge down.
NYSE:BA
by PT_Marche
1
SPYStill pushing, until lower lows are made, have to pivot and assess what’s being giving. Thinking we can see a push up to gap fill in short term. Market sell today sold right into a daily demand zone. If this holds, think we can see a smaller 5 wave count up to test gap fill and possibly retest 296. My plan is to watch price action in this zone here we are currently in and look to enter a small long. If we bounce out, target will be 293. Also, 293 is still my caution: if rejects, can indicate we are starting a 5 wave count down. If we break and test 296, I’ll think if will further confirm this current count. Either way, I think we at least get 3 waves up, whether it be a 1 - 2 - 3 up or an a - b - c, both should trend the same. It is around the targets of “3” / “b” where I think a better indication of next steps will be clear.
AMEX:SPY
by PT_Marche
TSLAIf you saw my prior education post of why I trade post earnings, this is another perfect example. Leading right into earnings price was right between supply and demand zones. Earnings release rocketed the price right into supply and, not surprisingly, sold right off back down into a demand zone where we currently sit. My overall thought is leaning bearish here. Per my counts, the earnings release should have completed 5 waves up for C. Corrections can be tricky, but I think we can very possibly at least get a push up to 820 - 835 area. This will be an important one to watch as if it gets rejected there, I’ll lean to thinking it will be a wave (b) in this correction where I will look to enter a potential short position. My invalidation if I enter a short there will be a break above 886. Bigger picture, possible we are starting a 5 wave count down for an overall larger correction. My invalidation for this overall larger correction would be a break above all time high. Will have to wait and see but short term my next thing to watch is potential small short if we get price to retrace back to 830 area.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by PT_Marche
5
Is Bitcoin Headed to $1000 This Year? (Elliott Wave Analysis)The break down this month has necessitated a MAJOR change in my Elliott Wave count. While the long-term is still ultra-bullish, actually even MORE bullish with this new count, the intermediate term over the next few months is looking quite bearish. With a global liquidity crisis mounting people will need to sell ALL types of assets to be able to survive this coronavirus/liquidity crisis. As more people lose jobs and their investments depreciate people will desperately need dollars to stay afloat and pay bills. This includes people who hold cryptocurrencies. Crypto is NOT immune to a liquidity crisis. The FED will need to print A LOT more money before we can recover from this drought of dollar liquidity, it should happen by the end of the year though when the FED goes into full blown panic mode. In the meantime, until liquidity comes back into the market en masse, BTC will likely head towards $1000 by November. This is by no means a death sentence for BTC or cryptocurrency and will simply be the largest correction ever experienced. We will recover though, and it will be a testament to cryptocurrency's resilience. Zooming out to the largest count on the Half Yearly chart, I've had to change this count from a diametric to what is technically a neutral triangle. This new count comes directly from the S&P, where wave-C ended in 2011 and wave-D ended in 2018, and now we are forming wave-E. This is the only long-term count that really makes sense at this point so I've forced it onto this chart. Also, having wave-E start in 2018 is MUCH MORE BULLISH than my previous count. It means after around 2022 we should begin one of the strongest, most consistent bull runs in history on both BTC and the S&P! This is consistent with the macro fundamentals as fiat currency will become significantly weaker over the next 2 years as central bankers print money on maximum overdrive to get us out of this recession. Also this is consistent with other cryptocurrencies. If BTC drops ~80% from here I would suspect that the majority of cryptocurrencies will fall AT LEAST 80%, and many will make full recoveries as well. For reference, here is my count on the S&P (Note the similarities between BTC and the S&P counts!)
BNC:BLXShort
by Intuit
6