GBPJPY Buy trade April 28 20235min entry Institutional candle (accumulation schematics ) with validity and BOS going to the upside aiming for distribution.
confluence on 5min-15min-1h market structure
Wyckoffaccumulation
Almost looks like Wyckoff Accumulation SchematicJust a quick thought - the main difference here b/w a typical Wycoff accumulation schematic is that the chart above didn't have a selling climax first prior to its automatic rally. However, since then it has behaved as-if it is in Phase B.
I have a much simpler idea for SPX / SP500 that is linked in the related ideas below.
What a ranging week for GBPUSDHere my outlook for FOREXCOM:GBPUSD next week, let's see what will happen.
ETH/USDT in Wyckoff Accumulation ModelImagine the smell...
ETH seems to follow Wyckoff Accumulation Model all too close so far. Nobody knows what will happen, but seems like a good idea to keep this in mind
Selling Climax (SC) was reached in June 2022, quick Automatic Rally (AR) peaked mid-August 2022, Secondary Test (ST) at the end of November 2022.
ETH just took out the AR high and seems to print strong bearish candle.
Based on this model we would expect:
rest of the Q2 23 = SHORT and path to sub-1k ETH
H2 23 = bounce from the bottom, path back to the top of the range
Gold | Case StudyThe XAU/USD pair is consolidating near 2040.00, being under pressure from technical factors and waiting for the publication of US macroeconomic data. The day before, gold has shown a steady growth, reacting to the latest evidence of a decrease in inflationary pressures in the US. In March, the Producer Price Index decreased by 0.5% in monthly terms and slowed down from 4.9% to 2.7% in annual terms, which, coupled with the data on consumer inflation that came out the day before, could put significant pressure on the decision of the US Fed on next meeting in May. Investors are also discussing the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, which were published on Wednesday, April 12, and reflected the officials' concern about the state of regional banks. In addition, the regulator allows the emergence of a recession during 2023, if external economic conditions do not begin to noticeably improve.
The United States of America
March US retail sales and industrial production data were released today and were mixed. Thus, the volume of retail sales decreased more than experts expected – by 1.0% instead of 0.4%, which is the second decrease in a row and illustrates the pressure on the national economy. The volume of industrial production in March rose by 0.4%, exceeding the forecast of 0.2%. We also note the latest comments of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic. Today, he said that the beginning slowdown in consumer prices and the decline in producer price inflation prove the correctness of the decision of the US Fed. The official noted that another 25 basis points increase in the interest rate would be appropriate, after which the cycle of monetary tightening could be completed.
the bottom yet to come - wyckoff accumulation phaseelliott wave analysis of bitcoin on daily timeframe
the latest move/wave does not look like an impulsive move but rather a corrective move
as a result, the idea of bear continuation and new bottom occurrence probability shall not be ignored.
If it is the case, then we may assume that the market might be in a accumulation phase for extended period of time (as displayed in the chart) mainly sideways and probable new bottom to form before the bull run resumes
details of the analysis is presented on the chart and you are kindly invited to check the links below for further details of the characteristics of the elliott waves
please note that :
- these patterns do not provide any kind of certainty about future price movement, but rather, serve in helping to order the probabilities for future market action
- trade setups must be confirmed in conjunction with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis
- and please remember that this analysis is not a financial advice and presented for educational purpose only
Elliott Wave Theory : Motive Waves and Corrective Waves
Published Indicators : Indicators page
EGO The New Gold Rush After Soaring 100% In Less Than 4 Months?Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO) is a Vancouver-based gold exploration and producing company that owns and operates gold mines in Turkey, Greece and Canada. The company has developed and operated assets from several merged companies and operates five mines, including the highest producing Kişladağ gold mine in Turkey, the Efemçukuru mine in Turkey, the Lamaque mine in Quebec, Canada, the Olympias mine in Greece and the Stratoni mine in Greece. EGO is listed on TSX and NYSE.
Wyckoff Spring Followed By Sign Of Strength (SOS) Rally
EGO started 2022 with a Wyckoff sign of strength (SOS) rally that peaked at $12.50 on 18 April. However, the price did not follow through to the upside and instead began to show signs of weakness. The price structure turned into the Wyckoff distribution phase until mid July. A Wyckoff selling climax (SC) occurred on 14 July after hitting the low of $5.27 and this was confirmed by an automatic rally (AR) up. This led to formation of a new trading range between $5.27 and $6.67 over next few months. There were tests to the lower range as well as Wyckoff upthrust (UT).
The range continued on until early November with a localized spring-like action. The price subsequently did a SOS rally and was able to break above $6.67 resistance on 10 Nov. It was the best rally thus far. More importantly, the reaction from this break out was a shallow pull back to retest the $6.67 level with low volume. This rally has the characteristics of a Wyckoff change of character (CHoC) where the accumulation phase was shifted to an uptrend. The price was able to continue with another SOS rally to test the $8.65 resistance.
EGO broke above the $8.65 resistance successfully on 4 Jan 2023 was able to stay committed above this level for a few weeks. Next EGO retested the $8.76 level in Feb followed by a rally and consolidation with contraction of volatility suggesting bullish bias.
The spike of volume on 17 Mar did not result in significant pull back. According to the Wyckoff effort versus result theory, this was the sign of absorption, which acted as a prompt bar to test the supply. Subsequently, the price consolidated between $9.50 and $10 until a successful breakout on 28 Mar.
Bias
Bullish. According to the Wyckoff method, EGO just broke out of a trading range between $9.50 and $10. There is no threatening volume to suggest the presence of supply. The price might retest the $10 axis, consolidate a little before attempting to challenge the next immediate resistance at $12.50. The tailwind from the mega accumulation structure in Gold futures could help to push EGO with more upside ahead.
If the price breaks below $10, it will likely retest the support zone between $9 and $9.50 with a prolonged consolidation.
TSLA Break-Out & Fake-Out?Tsla has been consolidating and broke-out of a bullish bullish flag today with weak conviction ...
Bulls need to see a big volume break-out tomorrow and regain $200 as support.
*Call Wall Options may have prevented Tsla from advancing with a strong break-out
$197 is strong resistance + weekly resistance line just above @ $198 $198.84
If Tsla does not open above $198 we may see a drop to test bull flag break-out & gap-fill.
Close below $195 Tsla will consolidate until re-testing highs.
*Bulls: Tsla is above 8 ema, 20 ma & 50 ma -Cup & Handle on Daily w/ Bullish Flag Break-Out....
Dips are being bought up *APRIL is STRONG Month for Growth & Tech
Bears- Weakness compared to overall Bull Run in Tech & Markets - Selling volume has been larger on 1 hr, 4hr, daily. Markets are feeling pretty Frothy
Possible Bearish Wedge Pattern...this could be wave a of c in Correction Pattern - lack of testing or either Strong Rejection at $200 could begin wave b.
Bearish Divergence on MACD & RSI 1hr & likely forming on Daily if we see the move past $200.66
This could go Bullish or Bearish *Key Points of interest: Key Close above $198.84 / Ability to Test $200.66 & Rection off of that will give us a better Idea of where TSLA Plans to go for the next 3 weeks until next Earnings
Current Bias: Neutral to Slightly Bearish
🔥 Bitcoin In Wyckoff Distribution: Is This The Top?Bitcoin has been trading sideways for the better part of two weeks now. Yesterday, there was a short-lived break out through the FOMC resistance, which got sadly sold off quickly.
Since the break out was only minor & short-lived, there's a probability that we're currently trading in a Wyckoff distribution pattern, which could signal that this is area is the Bitcoin top for the foreseeable future. Check out the theoretical schematic below.
If we'd follow this Wyckoff distribution pattern, that would indicate that there's still one more move up before the real sell-off. As long as the price does not break below the AR-support (purple) before breaking above the UT-resistance (yellow), this pattern is valid. Furthermore, the UTAD break out can't reach much higher than the UT top ($30k?) before being sold off.
Consequently, the UTAD top would be in an area of heavy resistance from the last two years of trading, see yellow area below.
Do you think we're in a Wyckoff distribution pattern? Are we breaking down? Share your thoughts below.
Note: I'm still bullish on BTC, especially in the long-term. However, I think it's valuable to look at different perspectives of the market, even if it goes against my bias.
META Soars 100% In Less Than 4 Months! What’s Next?Meta Platforms, Inc (META) formerly known as Facebook, is the world’s largest social media platform with a portfolio of apps including Instagram and WhatsApp. It measures its user base in daily and monthly active users, with advertising being its main source of revenue. The company faces competition from Google, Twitter, Amazon, and Snapchat-parent Snap, as well as Apple, YouTube, Bytedance, and Tencent. Meta recently changed its name to reflect its focus on the metaverse. NASDAQ:META is listed on NASDAQ and is a component of NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500.
Spot The Wyckoff Change Of Character From The Selling Climax
META started 2022 with a gap down on 3 Feb. The Wyckoff distribution phase was prolonged and continued for several months until late October. The earning results on 27 Oct triggered another gap down and took the price to around $88. However, this down move was accompanied by a big spike in volume in comparison to previous down swings. This capitulation was considered as stopping volume and was confirmed by the higher low test with decreasing volume.
The price confirmed the $88 level is Wyckoff selling climax (SC) as it rallied to $119 in mid Nov. This rally has the characteristics of a Wyckoff change of character (CHoC) where the down trend was shifted to a trading range. The price tested the $119 resistance on several occasions with relatively low volume compared to late October 2022. This was the sign of supply exhaustion and a rally could be expected.
Subsequently, META started 2023 with a successful breakout from the $119 resistance and a Wyckoff sign of strength (SOS) rally. The rally was steady but reassuringly after successfully breaking out of the trading range. Then the earning results on 2 Feb provided the much needed catalyst for the price to gap up with strong momentum. Nevertheless, the price quickly pulled back from the $197 resistance to form a Wycoff back up (BU) range. The pull back was shallow, about half of the price gap on 2 Feb. Furthermore, there was no threatening volume to suggest the presence of supply. The price also confirmed the bullish momentum with another rally up that successfully stayed above the $197 axis.
META Directional Bias Via Wyckoff Method
Bullish. According to the Wyckoff method, META just broke out of BU range between $168 and $197. The shallow retest of $197 on 20 Mar would have been a great entry signal for a long position with the swing low of $187 as stop loss. The price might retest the $197 axis again before challenging the next immediate resistance at $245 and $322 to close the gap of Feb 2022.
If the price breaks below $187, it will likely retest the support at $169 with a prolonged consolidation.
Duolingo On Fire: Can It Keep Going Amidst Economic Uncertainty?Duolingo Inc (DUOL), an American edtech company, offers over 100 language courses, including popular and less commonly studied languages. The platform uses gamified lessons with translating, interactive exercises, quizzes, and stories to make learning more engaging. Its unique algorithm adapts to each learner's level and learning style for personalized feedback and recommendations. Duolingo also offers a language certification program, a literacy app for children, and a math app for iOS. The platform also offers podcasts with simplified grammar, vocabulary, and slower intonation for intermediate level learners. NASDAQ:DUOL is listed on NASDAQ.
Wyckoff Change Of Character Leading Into Accumulation Phase And Breakout
DUOL has been in downtrend after hitting an all-time high of $205 on 22 Sep 2021. The Wyckoff distribution persisted until a Wyckoff selling climax (SC) on 15 March 2022 where it hit $64.80. The subsequent reaction was a relatively impulsive automatic rally to reach $101.50. This had the characteristics of Wyckoff change of character (CHoH) as the price structure shifted from downtrend to a trading range.
For the next few months, the price tested the highs and lows of the range. Several Wyckoff upthrust (UT) was formed but unable to commit above the resistance of $101.50. Yet the duration DUOL spent in the upper trading range $90-$110 showed evidence of strength.
The price did one last leg down to test the low in late October to December of 2022 with low volume suggested exhaustion of supply. At the beginning of 2023, DUOL price had a localized Wyckoff spring then started a significant Wyckoff sign of strength (SOS) rally. It was the best rally and the pull back from resistance was shallow, forming the Wyckoff last point of support (LPS). This is the sign before a successful breakout of the Wyckoff accumulation phase. With earning results as catalyst, the price gap up above the $101.50 resistance and committed above it. This was accompanied by increased volume hinting at the presence of demand. The up trend took a momentary Wyckoff back up (BU) pullback forming a higher low at $114 before continuing on the phase E uptrend.
Bias
Bullish. According to the Wyckoff method, DUOL has just broken out of the BU range of $130.50 and is overextended short-term. The price might retest this level and before challenging the next immediate resistance at $154 and $165.
If the price breaks below $130.50, it will likely retest the support at $114 with a prolonged consolidation.
AUDJPY Buy IdeaThis is my AJ buy setup from a monthly demand zone. After the demand zone was created, liquidity was created just above it then price came back and tapped the zone. This looks to be a nice trade with a potentially huge target. My setup is 1:19 RR with a 341 pip target.
AMD About To Soar On The Back Of The Semiconductor Boom?Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD) is a US multinational semiconductor company that offers high-performance computing platforms for cloud, edge, and end devices. Its products include CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, and Adaptive SoCs, which are used in various devices, including personal computers, gaming consoles, and servers. AMD faced challenges in the past but regained some of its market share thanks to the success of its Ryzen processors. The company has expanded into new markets and plans to enter the high-performance computing market. AMD is listed on NASDAQ and is a component of NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 Information Technology.
Pivot Wyckoff Change Of Character To Bullish Trend
In late Nov 2021, AMD reached an all-time high of $164.46 but retraced subsequently from that point. The price was unable to rebound and instead entered a Wyckoff distribution phase. It broke the $122.50 axis and retested the support of $100 on 22 Jan 2022. The following weeks saw the price range bound and the increase in volume with inability to rally up suggests more weakness ahead. This was confirmed when the price broke the $100 support in a Wyckoff last point of supply (LPSY) fashion.
There was a spike in volume on 4 May, but no follow through to the up side which led to a redistribution. The Wyckoff sign of weakness (SOW) took the price down to around $54.60 on 13 Oct. The volume was high but no further down move suggested it was stopping volume. The test of the selling climax in Dec 2022 contained lower volume with a higher low followed by a higher high rally that broke out from the downtrend line. This signaled an important concept, a Wyckoff change of character, which switched the bias from downtrend into at least a trading range if not a reversal.
The year 2023 began with a formidable SOS rally where AMD broke above the $79 resistance with earning results as catalyst on 1 Feb. There was a spike in volume but the shallow pullback tested the resistance-turned-support at $76-$79 with low volume hinted at supply absorption. It is now testing the long term resistance of $100.
Bias
Bullish. According to the Wyckoff method, AMD has just broken out from the short-term Wyckoff accumulation phase and back up (BU). It is now in phase E to challenge the $100 axis, which could form a larger accumulation structure. The last 3 days are showing rejection tails with localized increase in volume. Nevertheless, the bullish price structure is still intact and will likely see more rally up to test immediate targets of $110 and $122.50 subsequently.
If the price breaks below $89, it will likely retest the support zone between $79 and $76.60. Despite the failure scenario showed up as discussed in my latest video, the characteristics of the FOMC bar was not as bearish as anticipated. This could present a trading opportunity for AMD to ride on its strong bullish momentum.
eurusd accumulate with wyckoffhi
i like the way eurusd accumulate. wyckoff is a method a study a seen on this path.
cy
WDAY Roller Coaster Ride: Brace Yourself For The UnpredictableWorkday Inc NASDAQ:WDAY , a cloud-based software vendor, generates revenue by selling subscriptions to its financial management, human capital management, and student information system software. Its platform combines finance and HR in a single system, providing analytical insights and decision support for organizations of various sizes. Workday also offers additional applications, including Payroll, Time Tracking, Recruiting, Learning, Planning, Professional Services Automation, and Student. The company serves industries such as technology, finance, healthcare, education, and government. WDAY is listed on NASDAQ and is a component of NASDAQ 100.
Wyckoff Sign Of Weakness (SOW) Turned Accumulation With Developing Back Up
WDAY hit an all time high of $307.80 on 17 Nov 2021, but retraced from it. The inability to rally up in the subsequent weeks transformed the structure into a Wyckoff distribution phase. This was confirmed when a Wyckoff last point of supply (LPSY) occurred in late April and the price slid in Wyckoff sign of weakness (SOW). It took the price all the way to around $135 on 22 June.
The $135 became support and the price rallied to around $180 on 15 Aug, which helped to define the trading range. For the next few months, WDAY price tested the low of the range twice. The low of 4 Nov has characteristics of a Wyckoff spring that was followed by a Wyckoff sign of strength (SOS) rally. The price attempted to break the $180 resistance on 13 Dec but no follow through, making it a Wyckoff upthrust (UT). Nevertheless, the price did not retest the low of the range and instead launched another SOS rally at the start of 2023.
The price managed to break out from the range on 2 Feb after completion of the Wyckoff accumulation phase. It is now ranging in Wyckoff back up (BU) between $180 and $194.
Bias
Bullish . According to the Wyckoff method, WDAY is now in the BU phase. Although the price broke the $180 support, the reaction was another rally to challenge the $194. If the price is able to commit above $194, the immediate target will be $217.
If the price breaks below $180, it will likely retest the swing low of $172 followed by $158 with a prolonged consolidation in the trading range.
Despite the failure scenario showed up as discussed in this latest video, the characteristics of the FOMC bar was not as bearish as anticipated. This could present a trading opportunity for WDAY to ride for an up swing.
The spring is over! accumulation for BTCMy previous idea got rejected, we have now a clear situation of accumulation schematics and the SPRING has already passed! We are in Sign of Strengh (SOS) in Phase D now. Thinking of opening long position at around 25K, with targets at 29K, 34.8K and 37.5K (40%-50% up!)
BTC New Bull Market 99% Confidence99% Confidence
It is now official that BTC has started its new bull market cycle after a confirmed weekly candle close above 25.5k. Major Wyckoff accumulation phase is over, now is the time to mark up the price. Elliot Wave analysis also confirmed that the whole move in the last quarter is a new cycle wave 1. And price has already made weekly candle close above 50/200 EMA and 200 SMA, a very convincing move.
BTC can still go up somewhere to 30-37k and then stop, next it will make a corrective move of cycle wave 2 for 6-8 months and land above major Wyckoff accumulation trading range, so it will be somewhere at 25-27k or maybe higher. The low of wave 2 will be the third best time to buy. So wave 3 is around Q4 2023-Q1 2024.
I still amazed by how BTC can still going up and stay in its traditional cycle despite all the odds that conventionally only gold survived. And even now BTC strongly inverse correlated with SPX, a decouple phenomenon, maybe only temporary.
BTC Long IdeaBTC formed a solid base of around 38% range, once candle closes above the Stage 1 structure, I will be entering a long side trade. Since volumes on the down side are drying up and on the upside are expanding. Moving averages are also flattening out. I assume my target to be around 38% which is equal the the range of the base.
JASMY DOUBLE HARMONIC ,WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION. WAVE 3 BEGINS!Jasmy looks like is completing a double harmonic pattern. A harmonic within a harmonic. We may be in the mist of a VERY large move on Jasmy. We shall see!
BTC Wyckoff AccumulationNotice: Since January 16th I have charted out this possible Wyckoff accumulation schematic. I have only updated the supply and demand boxes to justify the moves that have happened, but the pathway hasn't been touched. With this most recent push up to 26k I thought now was the time to publish this idea.
BTC is at a point where my idea is either invalidated or it will continue to playout until it is invalidated. A weekly close above the weekly swing high will change my expectations for this chart, but could still have a similar pathway. If we get a close above, then we will have an actual market structure shift on the weekly since the bear market started. At that point I would be looking for a double bottom and the lows to be revisited, or possibly a sweep of the lows were we never get a close below.
If we don't get a close above then this idea is still in play and I will be looking for the "Sell in May" to start to bring the market down, apathy to kick in and people to stop caring for a little while. Summer Lull will continue to bring the market lower, with a rally here or there but ultimately the downtrend to stay intact. Coming into Aug/September, a bottom to be formed and wash out all the bulls that were calling for the bottom to already be in. Nov/Dec we can get our Q4 rally heading into the new year where we could see an actual change in market sentiment, just in time for the FED to start QE and heading into the halving where we will see the start of a new bull market. This chart takes wyckoff and pairs it with seasonality and the current market conditions that makes sense to me. Everyone seems to not want to take the current macro economic conditions going on into consideration. This idea I believe does.
Wyckoff Distribution VS Wyckoff Accumulation I have taken the chart from late 2019 to now and flipped it over up side down., and i'm wondering, if this could be in store for the Bitcoin price this year into nest year. I've also included the Halving date with the yellow line.
What if bitcoin just does another distribution phase?
This just a thought. Please let me know what you think down below.
Thanks
WeAreSat0shi
Wyckoff BTC almost take offIf the price breaking out from the box or making an SOS, BTC will go higher to 34k, a wave 1 of the whole new cycle
How Wyckoff & Elliot Wave Theory applied togetherMaybe this near "full-stack" technical analysis using Wyckoff and Elliot Theory along with relevant indicators such as Moving Average and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) will puzzled some of the traders who used to have a simpler analysis on the market. But to those who curious this is something that is really interesting to know. The chart above is showing us how the two theories can be complementary to each other.
Lets analyze the chart above of BTC/USD in 4h timeframe from left to right comprehensively based on the Wyckoff phases of the 2nd accumulation model.
Phase A:
During the early November of 2022, BTC was under heavy sell-off after Binance dumping hard on FTX where the price crossunder 200 EMA and 100 SMA. The waterfall crash of BTC was printing a 5-wave of zigzag wave. We can see that the lowest point of wave 3 shows the highest selling volume in a single 4h HA candle and also act as Preliminary Support (PS) where then I put the 1st support line there. The sell-off continue to form the last zigzag wave where we can see multiple high selling volume bars and made a very deep negative cumulative volume delta in which it represents as Selling Climax (SC) in Wyckoff. A massive buying then occurred which immediately push the price back up to the wave 4 of zigzag wave area, which in Wyckoff we can name it as Automatic Rally (AR). By using these to extreme high of AR and low of SC we can draw a rectangle to have a better view on the consolidation area. After the dramatic push and pull of price, the market volume gradually decreasing followed by price having a contracting highs and lows, forming a classic contracting triangle, where we can see some of the lows are respecting the 2nd support line.
Phase B:
The end of contracting triangle followed by another zigzag wave of smaller degree, where it breaks the 2nd support line and creating the second lowest low which we can name it as Secondary Test (ST) that the selling volume is much smaller hence also creating a shallower negative CVD. Price then go up back to the 2nd support line and able to reach back to 100 SMA although still not able to candle close it on the first attempt but eventually able to close it on the second attempt. Price then going on a small rally creating an ascending channel of 5-wave leading diagonal and able to close above the 1st support line, the 200 EMA and even able to make a higher high. But the volume is still not enough to make a change of character breakout.
Phase C:
The mini rally is identified as the 1st wave of primary impulsive wave, so the reactionary move where the price breaking down the ascending channel, the 1st support line, 200 EMA and 100 SMA and going back down to the 2nd support line can be identified as wave 2. Most of phase C volume going under the Volume Mean Level, it is the lowest volume of all of the phases. Combination of multiple minor corrective waves creating a WXY wave and we can see the 2nd support line is holding the price quite well where it represents as Last Point of Support (LPS).
Phase D:
The volume and price gradually moving up and able to close above 100 SMA and 200 EMA, then going higher to 1st support line with higher volume to a point of Show of Strength (SOS) where a change of character breakout is formed and also breaking out from the box or the whole Trending Range. Phase D is the perfect time to make an entry. The identifying of the first two waves of an impulsive move also creating a high confidence that we are entering the wave 3 or we can also call it as the money wave.
Phase E:
Just enjoy the rally
This whole chart actually representing a very textbook Wyckoff Theory of the 2nd Accumulation Model and we can also see in this chart the transition between corrective wave and motive wave of Elliot Wave Theory. In Phase A and the early Phase B, the corrective wave is on its end, where the rest of the Phase B to E we can see how the scaffoldings of early structure of an impulsive move is constructed. making a consolidating of accumulation before going a strong trending move. Wyckoff explains this transition of corrective wave to a motive wave in a beautiful way and surely we can also use it on the transition of motive wave to a corrective wave using the distribution model. This is just one variation where we can use Elliot and Wyckoff hand in hand in order to have a much better technical analysis on the market and maybe this combined analysis that I made on the above chart could be the best scenario to apply for both theories.
Hopefully this helps to educate for anyone of you who read this post, thank you
