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GBP/USD Turns Bearish: Analyzing the Key Factors Behind DeclineThe GBP/USD pair has recently turned bearish after reaching a significant Supply area around 1.3228. This level, clearly visible on the weekly chart, has proven to be a formidable resistance, halting the pair's upward momentum and reversing its course. As of today, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3125, marking a notable decline from the previous highs. Weekly Chart Economic Calendar and Market Sentiment Today’s economic calendar highlights the USD ISM Manufacturing PMI, a critical indicator of economic health in the United States. As a leading indicator, the PMI reflects the purchasing managers' outlook, which can offer valuable insights into the overall economic sentiment. Businesses tend to react swiftly to market changes, making this data particularly relevant for understanding the current economic landscape. In contrast, the UK's economic calendar is sparse this week, offering little to support the GBP. The lack of high-impact economic data leaves GBP traders focusing on external factors, particularly from the US. The US economic calendar, however, is packed with significant data releases, including the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures spread throughout the week. However, the spotlight remains on US labor data, with key prints scheduled for Thursday and Friday. Thursday’s US ADP Employment Change will be the first major data release, serving as a precursor to Friday’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This week's labor market updates are crucial as they represent the last significant data points before the Federal Reserve's rate decision on September 18th. Before these critical releases, the market will also be watching the US JOLTS job openings, scheduled for Wednesday. The JOLTS data is expected to remain steady near 8.1 million for July, closely aligning with the previous month’s figure of 8.184 million. Technical and Sentiment Analysis: Indicators of Further Decline From a technical perspective, the recent rejection from the 1.3228 Supply area signals a potential continuation of the bearish trend. In addition to this, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report reveals an interesting dynamic. Retail traders are currently extremely bullish on GBP, which often serves as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that a reversal might be on the horizon. Seasonal trends also support the bearish outlook for GBP. Historically, this period tends to favor a continuation of the downtrend, aligning with the current market sentiment and technical indicators. Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors Supporting the Bearish Outlook The confluence of technical resistance at the Supply area, bearish seasonal trends, and contrarian sentiment indicators all point towards a continuation of the GBP/USD decline. As the market awaits critical economic data from the US, traders should remain cautious of further downside risks. The alignment of these factors underpins our bearish outlook on GBP/USD, reinforcing the idea that the pair may continue to trade lower in the near term. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6B1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
Analysis: Key Levels to Watch for Short and Long OpportunitiesI'm watching the Nasdaq closely as it approaches a critical decision point. In this analysis, I’ll outline two potential scenarios, including both short and long trade ideas based on the confluence of key technical levels. Current Setup and Key Level: 20,320 Right now, the 20,320 level is my primary focus. This level aligns with: The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downtrend, suggesting potential resistance. The VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price), which is acting as a dynamic resistance level. This confluence makes 20,320 a critical resistance zone, where the market might either reverse or push through, setting the tone for the next significant move. Scenario 1: Short Opportunity at 20,320 Resistance If the price approaches 20,320 and shows signs of rejection (like a bearish candle pattern), I’m looking to take a short position at this level. Here’s why: Fibonacci & VWAP Confluence: The alignment of the 38.2% Fib level with the VWAP reinforces this level as a strong potential resistance. Risk Management: I would place a stop-loss above the 50% Fib level (around 20,400) to manage risk if the price breaks higher. Targets: My initial target would be around the 20,000 level. If this breaks, I anticipate a stronger move downward due to potential stop-losses being triggered below 20,000 (more on that below). Note on Stop-Loss Clusters: I believe many traders might have their stops placed just below the 20,000 mark. If the price breaks below this level, we could see a quick, momentum-driven move lower as these stops are triggered, potentially driving price toward deeper levels. Scenario 2: Bullish Break Above 20,320 If the price breaks above 20,320 and holds above both the VWAP and the 38.2% Fib level, it could signal a bullish shift. Here’s what I’m looking for in this scenario: Confirmation Above VWAP and Fib Level: A strong break and close above these levels would indicate that bulls are taking control and might push for higher retracement levels. Potential Targets: In this scenario, I’d look for the price to move towards the 50% Fibonacci level (around 20,400) as the next resistance, followed by the 61.8% level near 20,500 if momentum holds. Invalidation for Shorts: A decisive break and hold above 20,320 would invalidate the short setup. If this happens, I’ll look for potential long entries on a pullback to the VWAP or 38.2% Fib as support, with stops below these levels to manage risk. Conclusion The 20,320 area is the key level to watch here, with potential for both short and long setups: Short Scenario: Look for rejection at 20,320 to target a move down to 20,000, with a possible extension lower if the 20,000 support breaks. Long Scenario: A break above 20,320 could open the door for further upside, with potential targets around 20,400 and 20,500. This setup combines technical indicators with price psychology, as stops clustered around the 20,000 level may drive significant moves if that support level is breached. I'll be monitoring how the price reacts to 20,320 closely for confirmation of either setup. Let me know if you see anything differently or if you have any questions. Happy trading!
CME_MINI:MNQZ2024
by natron
USDJPY_105 2024.11.04 07:48:11 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_105 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 153.131 SL: 152.059 Entry Price: 152.193 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is expected to test the support level near 150.25 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth. * A breakout above the resistance area and closing above 154.45 would confirm this growth. * Given the soft nonfarm payrolls report expected, the pair might experience some volatility, but the overall trend suggests a rebound and continuation of growth. **Expected price movement:** Up **Long-term (next few weeks to a month):** * The pair has reclaimed the 151.00-152.00 region, which could act as new support, and could target levels such as 155.60 and even 160.00 in the coming weeks. * The US Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above its 104.50 resistance level could further support the pair's growth. * Political instability in Japan and a strong US economy are expected to continue contributing to the yen's weakness. **Expected price movement:** Up **Note:** The Elliott Wave analysis suggests potential continued growth, but it's essential to consider the broader market context and other technical indicators for a comprehensive view. Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is expected to go up, with some potential volatility in the short-term due to the soft nonfarm payrolls report. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(1) **Short-term Analysis (next few days/week):** Based on the technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a pause in its recent up move due to the overstretched condition of the JPY implied volatility index. The pair is currently under pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and a break below 143.60 intermediate support could trigger renewed weakness. However, a clearance above 149.30 could extend the rebound. Given these conditions, the short-term outlook is **neutral to slightly bearish**, with a potential downside move to 143.60 or lower if the support is broken. **Long-term Analysis (rest of 2024 and beyond):** The long-term forecast suggests that the USD/JPY pair will trade within a range of ¥138 to ¥150 in 2024. Analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US Dollar against the yen until the end of the year, with the pair expected to close at ¥145.555 in December. However, the long-term analysis also suggests that bears are dominating the market, with the price moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. This indicates a potential **downside bias** in the long term, with the pair potentially declining to ¥140 or lower by the end of the year. Overall, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term pause or potential downside move, followed by a long-term decline to ¥140 or lower by the end of 2024. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is currently experiencing selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and the prospect of market volatility ahead of the US presidential election is acting as a headwind for the yen carry trade, benefiting the Japanese Yen. * The technical analysis suggests that the pair may test the support level near 150.25, with potential for an upward rebound. * However, the VIX index is above 20, indicating increased volatility, which could lead to a breakout below 148.45, indicating a continuation of the decline. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near 150.25 or even breaking below 148.45. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** * The fundamental factors suggest that the US Dollar's outlook is firm despite current pressures, with traders pricing out larger-than-usual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. * The potential for a bullish reclaim of the 151.00-152.00 region could lead to targets of 155.60 and even 160.00 if the US Dollar strengthens across the board. * The Bank of Japan's potential ending of its negative interest rate policy could support the Yen, but this is not expected to have a significant impact in the long-term. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking above 154.45 and reaching targets of 155.60 and 160.00. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Long
by frankiepro
Nu Holdings (NU) AnalysisCompany Overview: Nu Holdings NYSE:NU , a leading digital bank in Latin America, is rapidly expanding its footprint across the region, leveraging innovative fintech solutions to drive growth in underbanked markets. With a mission to offer simple and accessible financial services, Nu Holdings continues to strengthen its presence, especially in key markets like Mexico and Colombia. Key Developments: Expansion in Latin America: Nu has successfully launched checking accounts in Mexico and Colombia, showcasing strong customer demand. The company has attracted $3.3 billion in deposits in Mexico and $220 million in Colombia, underscoring its ability to effectively penetrate new markets. This expansion opens up significant growth potential for Nu, as the digital banking revolution in Latin America continues to gather momentum. Strong Customer Engagement: Nu's active user base continues to grow, with an impressive record-high activity rate of 83%, marking the 11th consecutive increase in user engagement. This high level of customer activity demonstrates Nu's ability to retain and engage its users, a crucial factor for long-term profitability in the fintech sector. Accelerating Revenue & Profitability: In addition to customer growth, Nu has shown consistent acceleration in revenue and profitability, solidifying its position as a top contender in the fintech space. The company's unique combination of digital banking services, credit offerings, and low-cost structure sets it apart from traditional banks and other fintech competitors. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on NU above the $13.50-$14.00 range, driven by its successful market expansion, strong customer engagement, and accelerating financial performance. Upside Potential: Our price target for Nu Holdings is set at $23.00-$24.00, reflecting its potential for continued regional growth and increasing profitability as it scales operations across Latin America. 🚀 NU—Transforming Banking Across Latin America! #FintechGrowth #LatAmBanking #DigitalRevolution
NYSE:NULong
by Richtv_official
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Long
by Thief_Trader
USDJPY_108 2024.11.04 07:24:36 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_108 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 152.095 SL: 152.27 Entry Price: 152.22 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is expected to test the support level near 150.25 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth. * A breakout above the resistance area and closing above 154.45 would confirm this growth. * Given the soft nonfarm payrolls report expected, the pair might experience some volatility, but the overall trend suggests a rebound and continuation of growth. **Expected price movement:** Up **Long-term (next few weeks to a month):** * The pair has reclaimed the 151.00-152.00 region, which could act as new support, and could target levels such as 155.60 and even 160.00 in the coming weeks. * The US Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above its 104.50 resistance level could further support the pair's growth. * Political instability in Japan and a strong US economy are expected to continue contributing to the yen's weakness. **Expected price movement:** Up **Note:** The Elliott Wave analysis suggests potential continued growth, but it's essential to consider the broader market context and other technical indicators for a comprehensive view. Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is expected to go up, with some potential volatility in the short-term due to the soft nonfarm payrolls report. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(1) **Short-term Analysis (next few days/week):** Based on the technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a pause in its recent up move due to the overstretched condition of the JPY implied volatility index. The pair is currently under pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and a break below 143.60 intermediate support could trigger renewed weakness. However, a clearance above 149.30 could extend the rebound. Given these conditions, the short-term outlook is **neutral to slightly bearish**, with a potential downside move to 143.60 or lower if the support is broken. **Long-term Analysis (rest of 2024 and beyond):** The long-term forecast suggests that the USD/JPY pair will trade within a range of ¥138 to ¥150 in 2024. Analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US Dollar against the yen until the end of the year, with the pair expected to close at ¥145.555 in December. However, the long-term analysis also suggests that bears are dominating the market, with the price moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. This indicates a potential **downside bias** in the long term, with the pair potentially declining to ¥140 or lower by the end of the year. Overall, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term pause or potential downside move, followed by a long-term decline to ¥140 or lower by the end of 2024. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is currently experiencing selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and the prospect of market volatility ahead of the US presidential election is acting as a headwind for the yen carry trade, benefiting the Japanese Yen. * The technical analysis suggests that the pair may test the support level near 150.25, with potential for an upward rebound. * However, the VIX index is above 20, indicating increased volatility, which could lead to a breakout below 148.45, indicating a continuation of the decline. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near 150.25 or even breaking below 148.45. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** * The fundamental factors suggest that the US Dollar's outlook is firm despite current pressures, with traders pricing out larger-than-usual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. * The potential for a bullish reclaim of the 151.00-152.00 region could lead to targets of 155.60 and even 160.00 if the US Dollar strengthens across the board. * The Bank of Japan's potential ending of its negative interest rate policy could support the Yen, but this is not expected to have a significant impact in the long-term. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking above 154.45 and reaching targets of 155.60 and 160.00. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Short
by frankiepro
USDCHF_102 2024.11.04 07:13:05 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for USDCHF_102 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 0.86131 SL: 0.86627 Entry Price: 0.86565 Analysis for USDCHF Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Undecided LT= Strong Down Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Same LT=Down ST=Up LT=Down ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/CHF currency pair: **Short-term (next 24-48 hours):** * The indicative opening price of 0.8650 suggests stability, but the thin liquidity on Monday mornings and geopolitical tensions could lead to increased volatility. * The technical analysis video emphasizes caution and monitoring key levels, which implies that the price movement might be uncertain or range-bound in the short term. * The forecast for the week suggests a continuation of the downward trend, but this might not necessarily manifest in the next 24-48 hours. Expected price movement in the short term: **STAY THE SAME** (range-bound or minimal movement) **Long-term (next week or beyond):** * The forecast for the week suggests a continuation of the downward trend, which implies that the price is expected to go down. * The technical analysis video and the forecast section both indicate a potential downward movement, which supports this assessment. * The broader market conditions, such as central banks' actions and geopolitical tensions, could also contribute to a downward trend. Expected price movement in the long term: **GO DOWN** ( continuation of the downward trend) Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and should not be considered as investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and other factors not mentioned in the analysis could influence the price movement. Result: ST=Same LT=Down Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here are my conclusions for the USD/CHF pair: **Short-term Analysis (next few days):** The price is expected to **go up**. The pair is in an uptrend, and technical analysis suggests that it will continue higher, targeting levels such as 0.8680 and potentially 0.8750. The intraday bias is also on the upside, with a target of 0.8698. However, there is a risk of a pullback to fill a chart gap, potentially correcting down to 0.8574. **Long-term Analysis (weeks/months):** The price is expected to **stay the same** or potentially **go down**. Despite the strong recovery over recent weeks, the longer-term trend for USD/CHF is still considered bearish as long as the 0.9243 resistance holds. A firm break of 0.8332 could resume the larger downtrend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Please note that these conclusions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new data becomes available. Result: ST=Up LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/CHF pair: **Short-term analysis (next few days):** The technical analysis suggests a potential bullish correction, testing the resistance level near 0.8745. However, this is expected to be followed by a downward rebound, continuing the fall. The moving averages indicate a bearish trend, and the RSI supports the decline scenario. Therefore, in the short term, I expect the price to **go down** after a brief attempt to correct upwards. **Long-term analysis (weeks/months):** The fundamental overview mentions the influence of safe-haven demand on the Swiss Franc, which could continue to impact the USD/CHF pair. Additionally, the potential for gradual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could also affect the pair. However, the technical analysis suggests a bearish trend, with a potential breakout of the lower border of the "Triangle" pattern. Considering these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the long term, potentially targeting levels below 0.7985. In summary: * Short-term: **Go down** (after a brief correction) * Long-term: **Go down** (targeting levels below 0.7985) Result: ST=Down LT=Down
Short
by frankiepro
Gold price continues the long -term trend from 2700Hello market warriors! In today's session, XauUSD is gradually looking for a potential area to buy about 2700 USD. This adjustment is not a coincidence, but because Gold witnessed the leaps of last week, largely due to instability revolving around the race of the US president, escalating tensions in Middle East and Kha Kha's expectations. Fed interest rate decreases. This week, the focus of the market will focus on the US election, decide the interest rate from the Fed and a series of important economic data, from the requirements of unemployment benefits to the psychology of consumers. use. These will be big wave factors for gold prices! Currently, gold is still surrounded by $ 2750 per ounce, continuing to strengthen the long -term increase. I wish you a successful transaction!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Bentradegold
Gold Shines Amid Political and Geopolitical UncertaintiesGold trades in positive territory on Monday, supported by risks surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. These uncertainties enhance gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset, attracting investors looking to shield their portfolios. In the short term, these factors are likely to keep gold’s price elevated. However, the upside for gold is capped by renewed demand for the U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby limiting its potential for significant gains. Investors are closely monitoring the presidential election on Tuesday, as well as the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision on Thursday. Market expectations lean toward a moderate 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed, reflecting caution amid electoral uncertainties. This approach could further temper gold’s gains if the dollar remains strong. In summary, while political and geopolitical risks lend support to gold, its upside is constrained by a strong dollar and rising yields, making investors cautious about heavy positioning ahead of key events this week.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by KingHamma
EURUSD_108 2024.11.04 06:07:08 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for EURUSD_108 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 1.08618 SL: 1.09058 Entry Price: 1.09003 Analysis for EURUSD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Down Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Same LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the EUR/USD pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to attempt to continue its decline, testing the support area near 1.0825. * However, oversold conditions and the narrowing yield gap may lead to an upward price rebound. * A breakout above the resistance level of 1.0905 would confirm the growth option, while a drop below 1.0745 would indicate a continuation of the decline. * Given the mixed signals, I would say that the price is likely to **stay the same** or experience a **slight decline** in the short-term, with a possible rebound later. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The Elliott Wave Analysis suggests that the EUR/USD trend is down on the daily chart, with resistance at 1.11275. * A decisive bullish breakout above 1.11275 would suggest the end of the downtrend. * However, the poor performance of European equities and weaker-than-anticipated earnings in Europe may continue to undermine the market mood, supporting the US Dollar. * Considering the long-term downtrend and the potential for a bearish wave C zigzag pattern, I would say that the price is expected to **go down** in the long-term, with a possible target below 1.0745. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Same LT=Down Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the EUR/USD pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days/week):** * The pair is expected to attempt to continue its decline, testing the support area near 1.0825. * A potential upward price rebound and continued growth towards the area above 1.0995 is possible. * The technical analysis suggests a bearish trend, but a corrective advance is possible. * The Momentum indicator is heading south near oversold readings, which could indicate a potential upward correction. **Expected price movement:** Down (testing support near 1.0825) followed by a potential Upward correction. **Long-term (remainder of 2024 and beyond):** * Most analysts expect the EUR/USD exchange rate to appreciate, reaching fresh yearly highs. * The long-term trend is upward, with targets around the 2023 high of 1.1275 and potentially extending to 1.1495. * The Elliott Wave Analysis suggests a potential bullish breakout above 1.1275, which would indicate the end of the downtrend. **Expected price movement:** Up, with a potential target of 1.1275 and beyond. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new data and events become available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided data, I will analyze the EUR/USD exchange rate and provide a short-term and long-term outlook. **Short-term Analysis (November 2024)** * The forecast for November 2024 suggests a slight decrease in the EUR/USD exchange rate, with an expected average of 1.085 and a forecasted end-of-month rate of 1.083, representing a -1.1% change. * The technical analysis using Elliott Wave Theory indicates a downtrend on the daily chart, but an uptrend on the one-hour chart. * The resistance level at 1.11275 and support level at 1.0768 are crucial levels to watch. **Short-term Outlook:** Based on the analysis, the EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to **stay the same** or experience a slight decrease in the short term, with a possible range-bound movement between the resistance and support levels. **Long-term Analysis (Quarterly and 12-month outlook)** * The EUR/USD is expected to trade at 1.07 by the end of this quarter, representing a decrease from the current level. * In 12 months, the exchange rate is expected to be at 1.05, indicating a further decline. **Long-term Outlook:** Based on the analysis, the EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to **go down** in the long term, with a possible decline of around 3-4% from the current level over the next quarter and a further decline of around 5-6% over the next 12 months. Please note that these outlooks are based on the provided data and analysis, and market conditions can change rapidly. It's essential to stay up-to-date with the latest news and analysis to make informed trading decisions. Result: ST=Down LT=Down
Short
by frankiepro
EURUSD_108 2024.11.04 05:39:07 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for EURUSD_108 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 1.08586 SL: 1.0901 Entry Price: 1.08957 Analysis for EURUSD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Down Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Same LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the EUR/USD pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to attempt to continue its decline, testing the support area near 1.0825. * However, oversold conditions and the narrowing yield gap may lead to an upward price rebound. * A breakout above the resistance level of 1.0905 would confirm the growth option, while a drop below 1.0745 would indicate a continuation of the decline. * Given the mixed signals, I would say that the price is likely to **stay the same** or experience a **slight decline** in the short-term, with a possible rebound later. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The Elliott Wave Analysis suggests that the EUR/USD trend is down on the daily chart, with resistance at 1.11275. * A decisive bullish breakout above 1.11275 would suggest the end of the downtrend. * However, the poor performance of European equities and weaker-than-anticipated earnings in Europe may continue to undermine the market mood, supporting the US Dollar. * Considering the long-term downtrend and the potential for a bearish wave C zigzag pattern, I would say that the price is expected to **go down** in the long-term, with a possible target below 1.0745. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Same LT=Down Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the EUR/USD pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days/week):** * The pair is expected to attempt to continue its decline, testing the support area near 1.0825. * A potential upward price rebound and continued growth towards the area above 1.0995 is possible. * The technical analysis suggests a bearish trend, but a corrective advance is possible. * The Momentum indicator is heading south near oversold readings, which could indicate a potential upward correction. **Expected price movement:** Down (testing support near 1.0825) followed by a potential Upward correction. **Long-term (remainder of 2024 and beyond):** * Most analysts expect the EUR/USD exchange rate to appreciate, reaching fresh yearly highs. * The long-term trend is upward, with targets around the 2023 high of 1.1275 and potentially extending to 1.1495. * The Elliott Wave Analysis suggests a potential bullish breakout above 1.1275, which would indicate the end of the downtrend. **Expected price movement:** Up, with a potential target of 1.1275 and beyond. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new data and events become available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided data, I will analyze the EUR/USD exchange rate and provide a short-term and long-term outlook. **Short-term Analysis (November 2024)** * The forecast for November 2024 suggests a slight decrease in the EUR/USD exchange rate, with an expected average of 1.085 and a forecasted end-of-month rate of 1.083, representing a -1.1% change. * The technical analysis using Elliott Wave Theory indicates a downtrend on the daily chart, but an uptrend on the one-hour chart. * The resistance level at 1.11275 and support level at 1.0768 are crucial levels to watch. **Short-term Outlook:** Based on the analysis, the EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to **stay the same** or experience a slight decrease in the short term, with a possible range-bound movement between the resistance and support levels. **Long-term Analysis (Quarterly and 12-month outlook)** * The EUR/USD is expected to trade at 1.07 by the end of this quarter, representing a decrease from the current level. * In 12 months, the exchange rate is expected to be at 1.05, indicating a further decline. **Long-term Outlook:** Based on the analysis, the EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to **go down** in the long term, with a possible decline of around 3-4% from the current level over the next quarter and a further decline of around 5-6% over the next 12 months. Please note that these outlooks are based on the provided data and analysis, and market conditions can change rapidly. It's essential to stay up-to-date with the latest news and analysis to make informed trading decisions. Result: ST=Down LT=Down
Short
by frankiepro
Our opinion on the current state of MC-MINING(MCZ)MC Mining, previously known as Coal of Africa, is a small metallurgical coal company with a primary producing mine, Uitkomst, and several development projects, including the Makhado project, the Vele colliery, and MbeuYashu. Makhado, located in Limpopo, is the company’s flagship project. Expected to operate as an opencast mine with a projected 16-year lifespan, it aims to produce 800,000 tons of hard coking coal and 1 million tons of export thermal coal annually. Makhado’s viability improved after acquiring necessary surface rights in 2019. With partial funding from the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), MC Mining still requires additional financing to bring Makhado into production. The company holds a 69% stake in Baobab Mining and Exploration, which owns Makhado. Earlier this year, Goldway Capital secured a takeover with shareholder acceptance exceeding 83%. On 24th June 2024, MC Mining announced that CEO Godfrey Gomwe would step down by the end of the month. In financial results for the year ending 30th June 2024, MC Mining reported an 18% drop in revenue and an after-tax loss of $14.6 million (3.54c per share), partially due to increased non-cash charges. Coal production at Uitkomst fell by 35% in the first quarter of FY2025, with high-grade coal sales halved compared to the same period. MC Mining remains a high-risk investment with its volatility, limited liquidity (trading only around R12,000 worth of shares daily), substantial debt, and the inherent uncertainties of mining development. The stock spiked temporarily in mid-2022 but has since returned to lower trading levels.
JSE:MCZ
by PDSnetSA