Situation assessment XETR:DAX 1. We have reached another trend reversal zone 2. In our opinion, “much” after “above” is no longer possible in the future We would like to apologize for the inaccuracy of last week's forecast {wink} when we headlined as follows: 1. Weekly UP peak: between 18,406 and 18,518 (Bonus: 18,630) 2. In perspective, ...
Exactly 3 months ago (December 06 2023, see chart below), we set a 17800 Target on DAX (DE40) and the index hit that level yesterday: At the time DAX was the first major stock index to hit new All Time Highs (ATH) and as we mentioned it "sent a message to indices globally". And followed they did, as all markets followed this lead and rose aggressively. This...
DAX (DE40) has transitioned into a Channel Down pattern following the December 14 top rejection on the Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is fast approaching as the first level of Support but we expect it downtrend to bottom lower as resembles the declines of August 2023, March 2023 and December 2022 both on price and 1D RSI terms. All those...
It's been a bit long since we last took a trade on DAX (DE40) but it didn't disappoint as it hit both our buy and sell targets (see chart below) within the 3-month Channel Down: The rebound took place within the 6-month Support Zone and slightly under the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), similar to the March 20 rebound. The fractals are identical as they both...
DAX remains inside a Channel Down pattern. The price just got rejected on the MA50 (4h). The pattern so far matches exactly the first bearish sequence of the pattern. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price and keep as long as the price trades under it. Targets: 1. 14950 (-3.75%, symmetry with August). Tips: 1. The MACD (4h) is on the exact same level...
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DAX tested again today the 1D MA50, which is the Support since the July 12th Bullish breakout, and reacted with a rebound. With the 1D timeframe neutral (RSI = 54.688, MACD = 65.900, ADX = 24.550) this holding of the 1D MA50 translates to a buy opportunity. In addition, the 1D RSI crossed over its Channel Up. We are long, targeting the HH trendline (TP =...
DAX broke yesterday above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again after rebounding at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the December 2022 Bullish Megaphone pattern. This is the new technical bullish leg that will aim to form the next Higher High. On a similar way with the previous bottom rebound on March 20, the Low was also priced after the 1D MA100 (green...
For the 11.04.23 we see the following trend reversal zones: Up 3 15,674 Up 2 15,656 Up1 15,612 MoB 15,594 Down 1 15,584 Down 2 15,536 Down 3 15,518 5 days Trend barometer The signal changes back from neutral to bearish again. Technical Assessment There is nothing more to add to the working theses published in the past few days. We continue...
DAX is now testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) having rebounded at the bottom of its long-term (since the October 03 Low) Channel Up and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). With the 1D RSI coming out of its Accumulation Zone, as in the previous two Lows (late September and late December 2022), we expect this first long-term wave to hit at least 16100 and the middle...
DAX has had the strongest 1D bearish candle today since December 15 2022. That was the candle that accelerated the correction from the Higher High Zone (red zone) of the long-term Channel Up to the Buy Zone (green zone). With the Channel Up pattern starting on the October 03 2022 market bottom and remaining valid up to now, this Buy Zone has been the most optimal...
Since our analysis last month, DAX (DE40) hit our target by rising more than +12.50%, as the previous rally fractal within the +4 month Channel Up suggested. Right now the index is loosely supported by the 4H MA100 (red trend-line), having already broken it 3 times, but managed to close all of them back above it. As on December 06 2022, a 1D candle close below the...
The German stock index DAX broke today (and so far stays ahead of the Fed) above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). On our last analysis two weeks ago, we pointed out that a Channel Up similar to November's would form and its break-out will deliver the next move: As you see, the price traded exactly within that short-term Channel Up and delivered excellent...
The German stock index (DAX) has had a strongly bearish week as it got rejected just below the 14700 June 06 High, inside the greater Resistance Zone that is holding since March 29. As we mentioned last week, this is a much needed technical pull-back following the +24.50% rise since the October 03 Low. The 1D RSI got vastly overbought above 80.000 and it is only...
Big bullish news for DAX yesterday as it hit the 1D MA200 for the first time since February 2nd. Even though it has also broken above the Lower High Resistance of the Bear Market since October 27th, there is one pattern remaining which if repeated, can cause a new selloff. That is the April Cup pattern which after it failed to break its Resistance, it caused a...
DAX (FDAX1!) hit today the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 14. This is still technically a short-term bullish reaction (Channel Up) within two longer term bearish structures (Bearish Megaphone with the dashed lines and Falling Wedge o a broader frame). With the 4H RSI approaching its Resistance Zone, it is not unlikely to see a...
DAX is now trading above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the third straight session with the 1W RSI at its highest level since late January. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (14800) is just below the 14950 Resistance formed by the March 29 High. That is a short-term target, buying after that can be justified only by a 1D candle close above the 1D MA200...
DAX eventually followed the trading plan suggested last week, as the price turned neutral into a consolidation range, following the rejection on the All Time High Lower Highs trend-line: The strategy is still valid. As long as the Lower Highs trend-line holds and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level supports, we can keep scalping for medium-term profits. A...