Get started

XLK

NASDAQ retracement ONThe NASDAQ over-extended its upside target and the later part of last week stalled and started to retrace. Nothing exciting here as it was expected for weeks. lol So the NASDAQ Futures Weekly chart how a (breakout) failure of the 55EMA, and somewhat of a bearish reversal top candlestick pattern in the likes of a Dark Cloud Cover of sorts, or two-thirds of a Three Inside Down. Both suggest that the upcoming week would more likely be a down week. Notably, this past week completes the patterns symmetry of the NASDAQ fall magnitudes, as mentioned in previous earlier post. The Daily chart shows the completed trend reversal pattern (wave 1-5) of a series of higher lows and higher highs. And now, a retracement is in order, in a somewhat expected fashion. MACD and RPM both clearly indicate the retracement. This drawback should be looking for the 13K (or rather 12,900) support. A weaker market is more likely to bring it down to 12,000 or lower instead... perhaps later in September. I am in two minds at this point and here is why... The Daily chart appears to have turned around the trend into a bullish recovery. BUT, the weekly chart is in need of a higher low, which may have a 2000 point range at least. The two things that bugs me bad is the failure of the weekly 55EMA, and the distance from breaking above 14,400 for a weekly bullish clearance. Overall, the weekly chart is not ready (yet) to launch the next bull trend despite having pretty decent technical indicators. Stay safe and well... be cautious as volatility will spike!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
3
SPY Weekly review and Forecast: August 8th, 2022This week's action was largely defined by two dynamics: Employment data, and sector rotation. After initially selling off on Friday after the Employment data drop, the market reversed course and rallied much of the day before ultimately finishing slightly down on the session. Despite trade being predominantly sideways in an 80 point range, the market extended it's rally and finished up on the week. The range was the result of the aforementioned sector rotation. Tech moved into the leadership role as Eneregy, which had been leading the rally, sold off considerably. Stuck in the middle were the financials. Before looking ahead, here's a snapshot of last weeks numbers, and expected moves for the upcoming week: SPY +1% (+/- 8.81) QQQ +2.6% (+/- 9.33) IWM +2.7% (+/- 4.96) ____________________ Technology +2.8% Energy -5.1% Financials +0.8% ____________________ VIX: -0.84% (21.14; ~25% IV Percentile) ____________________ Heading into next week, the market is maintaining a fairly resilient - if not strong posture. There will be a smattering of earnings from small/midsized companies throughout the week, and a potential market moving event with CPI data being released on Wednseday. A natural question to ask is when volatility will find a bottom and make a return. Nevertheless, the market looks posied to finish Q3 strong. I've updated the SPY chart to include an intermediate upside target of 425, which is very much in play heading into September. There is reason to be cautious however, as SKEW is potentially throwing out warning signs as it finished the week with its highest print in nearly 3 months.
AMEX:SPYLong
by InnerMotionTrading
NASDAQ near upside targetThe NASDAQ just about reached the weekly 55EMA and retraced slightly . It cleared the 13K resistance and 13.2K resistance as well. Still bullish in the weekly technical indicators. The daily chart breaks down the week, with a early week pull back and some volatility and a weak retest of the gap; and then the mid-week bullish spike to break 13K. These were expected last weekend in the previous post. Similarly, the technical indicators were waning in acceleration and this is observed again in the last week. What makes it a little uncomfortable is the Friday candle... one that is suggesting indecision. So, I would start being cautious really. Reading two things now: a pop up spike to about 13,500, and then some retracement should set in.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
SPX Weekly review and forecast: August 1, 2022Last week, the markets saw a strong move to the upside with the SPX closing just shy of 4150 (4133). The move was largely fueled by FED chair Jerome Powell's comments, as well as strong earnings out of mega market cap stocks such as AAPL and AMZN. AMZN rallied +17.5% on the week and is up a whopping +32% from its low on June 13th. A similar story for AAPL, which is up +8.3% WoW and +25% since June 13. Joining the party, energy stocks like XOM reported very strong profits which vaulted the XLE higher. So far, the primary thesis of a bullish continuation being powered by energy (XLE) and technology (XLK) has come to fruition. The question, of course, is how long it will last - but first, a snapshot of last week's action: SPX: +5.2% Nasdaq: +6.8% Russell: +4.5% __________________ Technology (XLK): +7.5% Energy (XLE): +9% Financials (XLF): +3.9% Looking ahead to next week, the SPX is poised to retest the price zone between 4100 - 4200 which proved to be considerable resistance back on early June. The probabilities suggest some range bound action here, before the next major move. Needless to say, there's a chance that we could see a forceful continuation, and an even smaller chance of an outright rejection. Regardless, given the improving conditions, 4300 and 4400 are very much in play as potential upside targets heading into Q4. The expected moves for this week are +/- 81.30 (SPX), 8.81 (QQQ), 4.8 (IWM). The Nasdaq is clearly in the pole position for this rally, and is threatening to push back to 14,000, but with another busy week of earnings, as well as unemployment numbers, and more inflation data, there is still plenty of fuel to spark volatility (which has fallen off a cliff). Best of luck this week. If you found this helpful, please let me know!
FX:SPX500Long
by InnerMotionTrading
NASDAQ Bullish firm; to test 13KAs heads up weeks ago, now it is clear that the consequent market action is bullish. The weekly chart clearly showed the consolidation in June, and the robust breakout in July, with a strong bullish looking candle (nice lower tail and close very near at the top) to end the week. Technical indicators are aligned with momentum. 13K resistance should be tested, and appears likely to break. The daily chart has a lot more detail, and takeaways too... Last weekend, it was expected that " an early to mid week retracement, and then a possible uptick. " Not only was it perfect, the uptick was exceeded! Firstly, the mid-week move was a bit of an unusual response to the FOMC raising rates by 75bp. Then the momentum followed through, and the week ended with a significant gap up - Gap & run style, stopping just at the 13K resistance. Thursday's move completed the trend reversal pattern of a series of Higher High (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) denoted by the yellow lines through point 1 to point 5. Upon breaking above the high at point 3, that was pretty much the completion of the trend reversal. Now, clearly bullish and all, we do not go in all guns blazing, and here is why: There is a clear and immediate 13K resistance, and the weekend brings a possibility of a Monday retest of the gap. Although expected that the retracements should be shallow, the daily RPM is indicating a very much reduced rate of acceleration. Small signs like these are like cracks in the wall. Oh, btw... Have you seen the Monthly chart? It is so beautifully crafted with a huge Marubozu type candle engulfing a significantly large bearish June candle. This suggests three things: 1. Next couple of (2, maybe if we lucky 3) months are likely to be bullish; 2. The bear trend is broken; and 3. More importantly, the range of the (last 2) monthly candles suggest a significant range of volatility ahead And so, towards the upside target we go!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Auguraltrader
8
NASDAQ Ka-Boing!Ok, so we got the NASDAQ bounce for the week as outlined in the previous post. How now, brown cow? The weekly chart now has bullish crossovers in the technical indicators, and clearly a breakout of the consolidation range between 11,200 to 12,200. Mildly and cautiously bullish for the weekly chart, The daily chart shows that the week ended lower after clocking an intraday high that is also the week's high. The candlestick is actually bearish, and the daily technicals appear a bit winded. This collectively may result in an early to mid week retracement, and then a possible uptick. Note that the FOMC meeting is on 26-27 July, so aligned that the early week would be jittery and later in the week sees a stronger move. Either way, be like water, my friends...
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
Looking ahead to next week in the S&P (July 25th, 2022)With things like housing statistics, employment data, and earnings from heavyweights such as GOOG, MSFT, and 3M, next week looks to be filled with potential market moving events. Most notably however is FED Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday afternoon. While its no secret that we're headed into a world of higher interest rates, FED speak always has a tendency to move markets one way or another - but before we look ahead, here is a quick snapshot of last weeks action: S&P500: +2.3% Nasdaq: +3.3% Russell: +3.3% ------------------- Technology (XLK): +6.5% Energy (XLE): +4.5% Financials (XLF): +2.3% Heading into next week, SPY is looking at an expected move of +/- 9.8 on 24%IV ... (QQQ +/- 10.3, 32%IV; IWM +/- 5.6, 30%IV). SPY appears to be gaining steam on the shorter time frames (4HR, etc.), and I think the sectors driving the rally have more room to run, so my primary idea is for the rally to continue over the intermediate term. There may be some turbulence along the way, so perhaps a retest of the top of the previous range around 390 before ultimately heading toward 415. However, don't ignore the bonds. They have seen a solid rally off their lows in June. If momentum can continue, bond prices could accelerate up to 149"00, which would almost certainly lead to weakness in equities. Please note: these are not predictions - they are just my ideas about how I'm seeing the markets and are to help me formulate my own trades. If you find this helpful, please consider liking, commenting, following, boosting, baking cookies, setting me up with your single friends, blah blah blah blah...
AMEX:SPYLong
by InnerMotionTrading
3
NASDAQ about ready to breakoutAn interesting week went by, one with ups and downs and all around. The week ended with a long lower tail in the weekly candlestick. This we know, indicates bullishness. The daily chart shows how this came about, with a doji on Wednesday, and then a higher low retest followed by a nice uptick on Friday. These moves bounced off a support level, as well as clock in a second higher low (after technical bounce was expected previously). The weekly technical indicators crossed up recently, and the daily technical indicators show mild bullish build in the MACD, and less so in the RPM. Taken together, it appears that a bullish break out is imminent for the coming week. If this happens, then we are looking at a higher probability for July to close higher at about 13,500. Watch the next few days, it should show hand...
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
6
NASDAQ technical bounce as expectedPreviously, with a hit on target, a technical bounce was expected, and the end of last week... it happened! The NASDAQ weekly is leading the charge with an overwhelming bullish candle for the week. MACD histograms are thinning out and weekly MACD are about to cross over. Using the simple arrows, projections bring the NASDAQ to 13,600 where it should meet the weekly 55EMA. The daily chart shows a clear break out to the HULL moving average, and has MACD crossed over already. The week ended with a bullish marubozu. Bullish clearly...
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ hit interim downside target, now what?As previously projected, the NASDAQ pushed further down in the last week, and with expected momentum, to hit the target in good time. The daily chart shows the weekly action much clearer as the immediate resistance at 11725 failed and a quick drop ensued. The week did not follow through to end in downward momentum but instead clocked a small bullish harami. While unclear now, a technical bounce might be in the cards in the following week, and should show if it is happening by about mid-week.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
2
NASDAQ breaks down hard... and there is momentum indicating that there is more downside, extending beyond the last low. Weekly chart ended the week with a marubozu type candlestick where the close is at or near the low, suggesting downward momentum is strong. This is seen in the daily chart where the breakdown occured on Thursday and strongly pushed down to then Friday very near the low. The increasing candlestick length suggests similarly as well. While the weekly technical indicators are not as bearish yet, the daily technicals are indicating a down week to follow, extending beyond the last recent low, perhaps for a day or two. 11,000-11,200 becomes a critical support level for the next week. Let's see how early next week turns out... whether there is more downside (as Monday reveals down) or a spike down and stall. Currently expecting the former, with space up to a further 10% downside. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ really fizzles?Two weeks ago, the NASDAQ jumped after bouncing off a support level and tested the 13K resistance... which appeared to have failed, given the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick ending to the week. The daily technicals do not yet tell of a down slope slip, but it should be following through. And if it does, then we have this Down Friday Down Monday thingy... means more downside to come. The Weekly chart ended with a a candlestick that seem to stall the previous bullish candle. The weekly technicals are slightly bullish divergent. Taken together, appears that we can expect some downside risk to the last low, probably see a higher low within the week, if at all. The range is going to be a little wider than usual, until this consolidates out nicely and a new trend starts. So, let's see.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
5
NASDAQ is not yet done with downward momentumThe dead cat bounce only lasted a couple of days, and it gave way soon and very quickly yesterday (pre-market). This breakdown was with decent downside momentum, and was also off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, as observed in the 4H intraday chart above. By projecting forward using simple geometric extensions combined with Fibs, 10,800 is the next downside target (yellow arrows), which could happen swiftly or drag another week. Honestly, do not know which is worse. In another view, we see a range from 12565 to 11700, which the latter would attempt to provide some support (aqua arrows). Breaking down and out of this range, similarly points to circa 10,800, but in a more swift take down. Daily technicals employed here support the downside momentum and targets. So, look for support early-mid next week, if we get a new intraday low, yeah?
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader