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Yields

The Best Explanation of The Bond Market You're Ever Gonna Get12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea. The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very large and complex system does. It has a trend around which it travels but in decades and centuries not years. It isn't complicated, but it is extremely slow. There are 2 phases and a 5,000 year long trend. It goes up. It goes down. Over the course of centuries it declines. In the down phase, it stays below trend and does the exact opposite in the opposite phase. A kindergartener can trade this thing. Currently the phase is turning over from a down phase that lasted from 1980 to 2020, and entering into a new up phase that will most likely last for 3-4 decades. Trading it: buy secondary market long duration government bonds at the bond yield 3 standard deviation line and sell at the trend. Repeat for the next 30-40 years. Easy peasy.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
2
Yields USA 1. 1-Month Yield (4.596%): - The short-term yield here is the highest, which might indicate a risk premium for investors lending to the government over such a short period. This could also reflect the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policies, which may be keeping short-term rates high to combat inflation. 2. 1-Year Yield (4.316%) and 2-Year Yield (4.252%): - The yields for 1-year and 2-year bonds are slightly lower than the 1-month yield, which is unusual in a normal yield curve, where rates typically increase with maturity. This could indicate an inverted yield curve, often seen as a sign of an economic slowdown or potential recession. Investors may be anticipating future rate cuts due to an expected economic weakening. 3. 10-Year Yield (4.308%): - The 10-year yield is close to the short-term rates, confirming a relatively flat or even inverted yield curve. Typically, the 10-year yield is higher in a growth environment. Here, a yield similar to short-term bonds suggests low confidence in long-term economic growth or expectations of stabilized inflation. 4. 30-Year Yield (4.473%): - The 30-year yield remains close to short-term yields, with a slight increase compared to the 10-year but still within the same range. This configuration indicates that the market does not anticipate strong long-term economic growth or significant inflation increases. It may also signal that investors seek the safety of long-term assets despite similar yields to shorter-maturity bonds. The yield curve appears inverted or very flat, which is often interpreted as a sign of caution or economic uncertainty. This structure reflects a potential anticipation of an economic slowdown, where the Federal Reserve might need to lower rates in the coming years if inflation is controlled and economic growth slows. Investors may be seeking protection by purchasing long-term bonds, anticipating lower rates in the future.
TVC:US10Y
by eLs-Trading
Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Japan's ruling coalition losing its parliamentary majority in weekend elections is currently weighing on the Japanese yen. Adding momentum to the dollar's strength, long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued their surge, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut. Traders perhaps now see little chance of a rate cuts when the Fed meets on November 6, just a day after the U.S. election. Another key factor in the dollar’s rise is what’s being called the “Trump Trade” — a bet on Donald Trump's potential re-election. Should Trump secure victory and the Republicans retain control of Congress, his policies are expected to drive up the U.S. deficit and reignite inflation.
by BlackBull_Markets
TLT +50% Every Time This Happens and It's Happening NowTLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close) It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on allocation, as in Bonds plus Equities, you start making some progress. That's exactly what this chart represents; where the money is going and when. Hint: it's going into Bonds. Soon. BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time) is here
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by MarkLefevre
2
Hatom (HTM) - Promising small-cap crypto for yield in DeFiHatom (HTM) shows notable strength in the daily chart after breaking out from the 30-day exponential moving average (1D 30EMA) on August 19. What acted as a strong resistance from March to August (testing twice in the meantime) can now become strong price support moving forward - currently at ~$0.89 (the 30EMA). The daily RSI also displays a strong uptrending momentum, at 62.77 by post time. Fundamentally speaking, Hatom Protocol is one of the most solid and promising DeFi protocols I have found and experienced using in crypto. Hatom Labs, the core developer, is setting solid new standards by the way they do business (multiple tests, plenty of security audits, no rush to launch or make announcements, not trying to induce FOMO with marketing gimmicks, etc.) They have recently made the 9th protocol update after one year of launch and this is another aspect I like about the project: Hatom Lab's communication strategy - clear of noise. They reserve their comms for relevant announcements only, as security is their north star. The recent announcement (which can be found on X @HatomProtocol) revealed some really exciting features ahead for yield farming/generation through liquidity, lending, and booster operations. They are also launching a decentralized overcollateralized stablecoin called USH to compete with Sky's (formerly MakerDAO) DAI. Which, in my opinion, is very much needed and appreciated. We need more of these solid decentralized stablecoins around. I'm invested in HTM for the mid- to long-term, but I also think that, right now, the token offers a good long opportunity, so I'm also longing it for the short-term, eyeing the ATH at a first target. It's important to note that Hatom is a small-cap crypto, so beware of all the risks that come with this kind of asset. It runs on the MultiversX (EGLD) chain, but are also planning to expand to other chains. Can buy via the xExchange DEX and long on AshPerp.
Long
by vinibarbosa
Bitcoin - Another sign that Fed credibility is waning.A Sick Feeling in the Belly of the Yield Curve Another sign that Fed credibility is waning. The socioeconomic point of view is that, as the Supercycle bear market develops, central banks will lose their mantle as being omnipotent directors of markets. Whereas in the bull market, central bankers like Alan “the Maestro” Greenspan were lauded because positive social mood was driving the stock market higher, in the bear market central bankers will be vilified as negative social mood causes a downtrend in stock prices. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure Americans that the series of interest rate hikes that the central bank is embarking on would not tip the U.S. economy into recession. The bond market promptly ignored those soothing words and the yield curve flattened. A flattening yield curve, whereby the positive gap between short-dated bonds and long-dated bonds is narrowing, is a sign that the market is anticipating slower economic growth. When the yield curve inverts, with long-dated yields below short-dated, it has historically been a signal that an economic recession is on the horizon. That historical relationship is most generally related to the yield spread between 2-year yields and 10-year yields, and that yield curve has been flattening over the past year from 1.50% to around 0.20% where it is currently hovering. So, not quite inverted yet, but trending in that direction. However, in the so-called belly of the yield curve, the area between 5 and 10-year maturity, the message is already here. The chart below shows that the yield spread between 5 and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has declined precipitously over the last year and, yesterday, turned negative. This yield curve inversion is a clue that a 2-yr /10-yr (2s 10s in industry vernacular) inversion is probably on its way. Despite what the Fed says, a beast of a recession may be approaching. U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield Minus 5-Year Yield
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ferGOD
307
Iconic Failed Bullish move on SPX?If the S&P500 gets rejected at this level, it has the power to be an iconic selloff. Now before we get to “bear’d up ” understand the SPX is still holding above the key short term daily moving averages and holding higher lows. The long term trend is still up. Now to go back to being bearish. This FOMC interest cut was a big 0.50 BP which is not what most were expecting. The rate cut that everyone was so bulled up on ended up backfiring in the markets face. The market sold off and reversed lower. Historically this is a phenomenon we can observe throughout previous rate cutting cycles. Along with a buy the rumour sell type of day, the candle formation om the SPX are appearing to be higher volume reversal candles. Today session almost completed bearishly engulfed yesterday’s session. These 2 candles have also proceeded to be trading at New All Time Highs before failing to hold and reversing Lower.
SP:SPX
by Trading-Capital
2yr Yield - FEDFUNDS "Inversion"Over the past ~25yr, we've seen 3 instances of 2yr Yield dropping below the FEDFUNDS rate set by the Federal Reserve. All 3 instances coincide with Recessions. On this chart, you see the Yield Differential (Yellow), the SPX (Candles), along with the time of said "Rate Cycle Inversions" (Blue Bar Counts Below Price). As you can see, all 3 previous instances lead to significant corrections and/or volatility with notable downside. Not since the 2008 "GFC" have we seen an "inversion" of this magnitude. While correlation is NOT causation...It can be a "warning light" signaling 'Danger Ahead'. It is certainly forewarning us that the probabilities of a recession/down-turn are gaining momentum. Yes, people have been calling for Doom n Gloom, "Top is In", Recession imminent... for a couple years now. And I am not recommending you sell everything and hide under a rock. What I am recommending however, is that you reduce leverage if you have any, perhaps lock in some profits while you're "on top", and head into the coming days/weeks/months with eyes wide open, alert to potential quick corrections when this wild ride inevitably 'ends'. Each instance resulted in the "recent lows" being violated. If history rhymes this time, that could mean low 3k's incoming for SPX. COULD. Can your portfolio/strategy/mindset handle that kind of volatility/drawdown? Just some food for thought. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management. Thank you for your time and consideration.
SP:SPX
by mrjones2020