Unlocking the Wheat Matrix: The Code to Dominating CommoditiesUnlocking the Wheat Matrix: The Code to Dominating Commodities
What if I told you there is a way to see the hidden signals of the market? To move not with the herd but ahead of it, where clarity reigns and profits follow. This week, we delve into Wheat (ZW) — a market where the COT strategy reveals its secrets. The choice is yours: read on and learn, or remain blind to the patterns all around you.
Decoding the Setup
Understand this: this is not an invitation to blindly leap into the market. No, we wait. Patience is the cornerstone of mastery. When the technical tools confirm the market’s strength, only then do we act. Now, let’s break down the wheat matrix:
Code 1: Commercial and Small Speculator Positioning
The Commercial COT Index, using a 26-week lookback, reveals that commercials are at an extreme in long positioning. At the same time, the Small Speculator COT Index shows small specs aligning at a similar extreme. In the wheat market, unlike others, we follow the small specs rather than fading them. A deviation from the norm—an anomaly in the matrix.
Code 2: Commercial Extremes in Net Positioning
Commercial entities are nearing their most bullish stance in three years. History whispers a truth: when commercials move like this, the market often follows.
Code 3: Contrarian Signal from Investment Advisors
The masses of investment advisors are overwhelmingly bearish. Against this backdrop, the extreme bullish positioning of commercials sends a powerful contrarian signal. The matrix is showing its hand.
Code 4: Valuation Metrics
Wheat stands undervalued against U.S. Treasuries. When value aligns with positioning, the code becomes clearer.
Code 5: Seasonal Patterns
Seasonal truths tell us that wheat’s true bottom often forms in early January. This aligns perfectly with the cyclical and technical signals currently emerging.
Additional Signs in the Matrix
Spread Divergence: Bullish spread divergence between front and next month contracts.
Accumulation Indicators: Insider Accumulation Index and Williams ProGo confirm accumulation.
Technical Tools: %R is in the buy zone, and Weekly Ultimate Oscillator Divergence further supports the bullish narrative.
Cycles: The Recurring Patterns
44-Month Cycle: A major bottom forms now.
830-Day Cycle: Signals an upward move into March.
151/154-Day Cycles: Align with a cyclical bottom occurring now, projecting strength into March.
The Red Pill of Action
With these signals converging, the urge to act immediately can feel irresistible. Don’t. The matrix requires patience. Let the market reveal its strength. When the time comes, you’ll ride the wave with confidence.
The Path to Mastery
Trading isn’t merely a series of moves; it’s a philosophy. The COT strategy is a key, but only those who seek mastery will unlock its full potential. If you’re ready to see the market for what it truly is, join Tradius Trades. Here, we don’t just navigate the matrix of commodities—we redefine it. Are you ready to free your mind?
Zw1
ZW1!10. 18. 22 I'm showing you the setup wheat trade. I do not trade wheat, but maybe I will someday. I went process and everything that I described is exactly what I would do if I were taking a trade in this market. What I mean by that is that I would not just set the market up for the long trade...I would also look at the long trade that I missed. If I were doing it so it might take me an extra 5 minutes of my time to look at what I missed. The most important thing is that I get a familiarity with that market. It helps me to look to the left to get a feel of the market even though I missed a good trade. It takes maybe 5 minutes to do this... but it developed a comfort level for me. In effect, I am going through my "training list".
ZW1!9.7.22 Wheat: This looks like a long trade with a small stop. This is a market that can grind higher and lower, and used to be problematic for me because markets like this move slowly very small range, and that is usually very annoying for me. However, I think there's a technique that I personally use, it keeps me in the market longer in a way that's more tolerable. Take a look and see if this could help you. I think it's very easy to think of a market as being weak because of the way it's moving higher, and because of that I generally don't have good staying power. However, if I can get in, and it keeps on failing to make new lows, and all I have to do is look at it once a day keeping my original stop, and the market ends up not stopping me out as it's going higher, and I'm only looking at it once a day.... that is not a bad thing.
Rally in wheat is not done yetWheat futures rallied last week as it was expected. Congrats on your profits! Wheat is one of my favorite instruments. It follows setups very well. Many traders focus on more volatile instruments. But that is wrong. As traders, we have to be focused on a less speculative instrument that gives a better risk/reward ratio. I believe the price will retest recent highs near 570. But this market needs some breath. It is overbought on smaller time frames. However, Wheat is a very tight market. Usually doesn’t give big pullbacks. I continue to look for and take buy signals in this market.