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Alibaba - 80% drop from the peak, what are you doing about it ?Sell, sell , sell. Much like the panic and frustration in the China property market, from Tier 1 to Tier 3 and beyond, you read up about more and more news about home owners selling their properties 30-60% off their purchase price. The stock market is no better. Once , the darlings of China Tech industry, Alibaba is soon reaching its 80% lowest point from its peak at 300. Trillions of dollars have wiped out the entire market, consumers' confidence are ultra low, job market prospects are bleak as graduates continue not able to find jobs and thus have to force save whatever money that they have coming. Already a saving nation, we are witnessing a much higher savings rates than before as people are afraid and uncertain of the economy prospects , seeing no light at the end of the tunnel. Their main investment holdings - properties are now facing the biggest threat in their lifetime. 2024, it is highly likely that we see the government continue to lower interest rates and come up with even more attractive policies to attract first time and 2nd time buyers to snap up the properties as these developers are facing high debts that are too high to pay off without some form of government's assistance. The whole world is watching China now !!!! Revenue for Alibaba remain strong and Jack Ma has announced he will not be selling his shares for now and has recently written a memo to his staff to pull up the socks. However, many investors are very concerned about the China's goverments as their moves can wipe out their investment returns. Many have sold off their stocks, ETFs, etc and focus on US/Europe and Asia. I am not buying aggressively nor buying any new stocks from China/HK as yet but continue to watch closely. It could be another 3-6 months before we see a possible turnaround on the China's equities market. With the 30 days free visa that China has signed with several countries, this initiative should boost consumers to spend more, though still a far cry from pre Covid times. Be patient now.....do not let the negative news affect you too much
HKEX:9988
by dchua1969
5
Trend is your friend The obsession of catching the bottom and being proven right is so strong that many would fall for it willingly , taking an unknown risk with no idea if the down trend has reversed. Looking at the weekly chart, if Oct 2022 is the bottom, then the current downtrend should be rebounding soon and not continue to fall next week/year in 2024. If I am right and it does fall to revisit the Oct low again, creating a double bottom , which I have neither the skills nor foresight but mere conjecture. So , do take this with a pinch of salt and DYODD. China stocks or ETF for that matter has been hated by many, both institutional and retail investors for some time now, losing trillions of dollars at the seemingly uninterested government of China. Really, the government is indeed doing something (read here and here Therefore, I believe the China government is very likely to cut interest rates and print money to stimulate the economy. This would boost corporate lendings and help the private sector to recover, to grow at a faster pace without resorting to cutting prices to beat competition. Trickle down to the retail investors, company expansion would help to improve job opportunities and stabilise the household income, thereby returning the much needed confidence to invest in the stock market again. Of course, this is my wishful thinking and it may or may not happen so we will have to wait and see. There is no rush to show hand just to catch the bottom but rather wait for the trend reversal to takes place and then participate in it. So what if you missed the bottom which in retrospect are known after the price action is shown in the chart weeks or months later. Patience remains a skill , one that is scientifically not taught in the investment world but rather a psychological state of mind. It can be trained and improved over times and different measures can be put in place. Depending on when you review the chart, one might have taken a long position in Dec 2022 when it breaks out from the bearish trend. They should be in break even stage now if prices do not continue to falter but nobody knows for sure. Like I said so often, market always give us a 2nd or 3rd opportunity. So for those who like this company, we just have to wait patiently for the price action to break out before deciding to go LONG. FOMO stays regardless we are in 2023 or 2024 or beyond. Where human prevails, the old adage of greed and fear will continue to drive the market. So be careful when you go overboard and pull back a little and let the hard data (charts) tell you if you are following or against the trend. WIshing everyone a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
HKEX:700
by dchua1969
1
Xiaomi: Still some Room! ⬆️Xiaomi stock has retreated somewhat in recent days. Nonetheless, we are sticking to our primary assumption that the price is likely to surpass the highs from November once again as part of the magenta wave (B) in order to form the high a good deal further north. Accordingly, we expect a return to this short-term bullish path in the near future. It is important to note, however, that the 33% probable alternative would already allow the high to be in place. We would favor this scenario in the event of significant declines. A far-reaching descent is also on the agenda in our primary scenario after the current (corrective) wave (B) has ended. The price should only finalize the big wave II in grey and thus the big correction below the support at HK$8.31.
HKEX:1810Long
by MarketIntel
NETEASE, down due to news or....?Today's news, "China to tighten controls on video gaming industry...." Traders & investors's overreaction? Or the charts already say so? I'm purely chartist, base on charts itself, I may sell too. >> Price keep create LH. >> Unable to break Parallel Channel >> Market structure shifted. Some traders / investors might look for opportunity. Are you one of them? Personally won't catch red. Just left it drop until the rebounce signal appear. When the market moves where, and how, and if - these are all unknown. The only thing which we can control is our risk. Focus on risk management! Keep the long term vision. Disclaimer: Mentioned stocks are solely based on own opinions for education and/or discussion purpose only. There's no buy and/or sell recommendation. Trading involve financial risk on your own. The author shall not be responsible for any losses or lost profits resulting from investment decisions based on the use of the information contained herein.
HKEX:700
by DSELE99
What will the fate of Tencent be like ?Read the latest article here As a shareholder , I am not too happy. But as a parent who has two kids pretty glued to the phones , this might be the answer to help them stay away from their phones and do something else. To be fair, I am not born in the internet or mobile phone era where information are readily available online. Naturally, kids will resort to their device as the primary resource to seek answers. Current price is supported at the 618 Fib Level but I am of the opinion that it will continue to falter for a while more. The next level of support is between 220 -230 where a small gap up happens on 10 Nov 2022. If we are lucky, we might see some support at 246 price level. The confidence in China stock market is getting dimmer by the days and weeks as I hear more stories of people dumping shares and calling China uninvestable. For now, I am not selling since it is already in the red and this is a government regulations that is beyond what the Company can do. The recent shares buyback program (read here here ) fails to move the market at all and now with this piece of bad news. From Feb 2023 at its peak of 415, it has fallen more than 35% and the pessimism in the stock market is not helping at all. What will the fate of Tencent be like ?
HKEX:700
by dchua1969
Anta Sports: Turning Point Reached 🛑The bears dominated Anta Sports' price action last week, causing further sell-offs. Given this development, we do not consider the magenta wave (x) to be over yet and give it some room to fall. However, the price should not fall too much further and especially not below the support level of HK$67.85. Above this level, the low should be reached and the bullish move in the form of the magenta-colored wave (y) should resume. On the other hand, a break below this level would trigger our alternative scenario, to which we assign a fairly high probability of 44%, which would entail a direct completion of the green wave (2).
HKEX:2020Long
by MarketIntel
$TENCENT shows sign of rebound with bottom formed$TENCENT shows sign of price bottoming on last Thursday with high volume supporting the price from going down lower. (Yellow square box) Based on our analysis, the rebound signals further sets in with price recover more than 50% of the Friday morning price fall. This indicating demand is coming back in after 2 weeks retrace & selling pressure easing. Which could lead to a price rebound in the coming weeks. Our trading method: we are looking into Bull CBBC on this potential short term rebound. #hkex #supplydemandtrading #supportresistancestrategy #cbbc #highriskhighreturn #stocktrading
HKEX:700Long
by ROUNDnSURGE89
Petrochina: Please reverse! 🔄Last week, the PetroChina share price continued its downward trend and has now reached the level at which it should form the low of the blue wave (iv) in our primary scenario. Consequently, it should soon stabilize and stop its downward movement. With the low in its pocket, a further rise is then on the cards to complete the turquoise wave 4. Only when this overarching movement is completed should stronger declines follow. However, there is also an alternative scenario with a fairly high probability of 40% that would come into effect if the sell-off continues into next week. In this case, the high of the turquoise wave alt.4 would already be in place and the price would be in the subsequent downtrend.
HKEX:857Long
by MarketIntel
CSPC - growth potential.Hi everyone. This is my first idea in English, I decided that it would be more convenient and would reach a large audience. Briefly for the English-speaking audience: I publish mid-term ideas with an average term of 2-3 months. Over the past month, 3 out of 8 ideas were successfully implemented, all overtook benchmarks with a profit of more than 10%, the rest of the ideas are in the process of implementation. Today I want to tell you about CSPC: What's interesting here? - Shares of CSPC Pharmaceutical are significantly undervalued from a fundamental point of view, despite the stable growth, a wide portfolio of assets and insignificant debt - they are very undervalued - The fall in stocks this year is explained both by the overall decline in Chinese stocks and the sector as a whole. At the same time, over the past month, a significant part of the sector's shares have already managed to recoup the part of the fall, while CSPC has not. Perhaps because before that the company performed better than the index. - A good technical picture on the weekly and daily TF, a lot of signals for growth. A potential exit zone for mid-term deal can be the zone 7.10-7.40$. P.S. I trade on the Etoro platform, where you can find me by the same nickname and see open trades or subscribe here.
HKEX:1093Long
by noneloquence
179 - 16 months ASCENDING TRIANGLE══════════════════════════════ Since 2014, my markets approach is to spot trading opportunities based solely on the development of CLASSICAL CHART PATTERNS 🤝Let’s learn and grow together 🤝 ══════════════════════════════ Hello Traders ✌ After a careful consideration I came to the conclusion that: - it is crucial to be quick in alerting you with all the opportunities I spot and often I don't post a good pattern because I don't have the opportunity to write down a proper didactical comment; - since my parameters to identify a Classical Pattern and its scenario are very well defined, many of my comments were and would be redundant; - the information that I think is important is very simple and can easily be understood just by looking at charts; For these reasons and hoping to give you a better help, I decided to write comments only when something very specific or interesting shows up, otherwise all the information is shown on the chart. Thank you all for your support 🔎🔎🔎 ALWAYS REMEMBER "A pattern IS NOT a Pattern until the breakout is completed. Before that moment it is just a bunch of colorful candlesticks on a chart of your watchlist" ═════════════════════════════ ⚠ DISCLAIMER ⚠ The content is The Art Of Charting's personal opinion and it is posted purely for educational purpose and therefore it must not be taken as a direct or indirect investing recommendations or advices. Any action taken upon these information is at your own risk.
HKEX:179Long
by TheArtOfCharting
Xiaomi: Take a breath 😮‍💨Xiaomi stock struggled to continue its uptrend last week and is currently trading slightly lower. However, we see this as a normal counter-reaction to the strong price gains and part of the substructure of the magenta wave (y), whose top and thus the end of the same-colored wave (B) should be in sight further north. Therefore, we expect that the bulls will soon regain the upper hand and push the price a bit higher. The high should initiate a change in direction and start a significant downward movement.
HKEX:1810Long
by MarketIntel
China Life Insurance: Bounced back🎾After placing the low of the blue wave (ii) at the lower border of the orange target zone between $10.10 and $11.32, China Life Insurance's share price initially rose to the upper border of the target zone last week, gaining over 12%. However, the price has not yet been able to sustainably break out of the zone, causing it to bounce and fall again. As a result, entry opportunities remain within the zone on the long side, with stops placed around 1% below the lower border. We expect the price to rise well above the zone and cross the resistance at HK$15.84. Only an imminent break below the support level at HK$8.53 would diminish this outlook. This would activate the 33% probable alternative, which involves a lower low of the green wave alt.(2).
HKEX:2628Long
by MarketIntel
Warning was given to the greedy investors in ChinaRead this latest article here It appears that ample notice was given to greedy investors who bought excessive properties to turn around for quick profits and were caught with huge debts as the share price of this big property firm starts to collapse........... From 2009 to 2017, the share price was moving sideways, pretty boring and lack a strong buying reason. Then, it went up almost 90 degrees within a short period of time, 2017 and causing the CCP to make statements that properties are for living not for speculation. They must know how bad the situation are with all the data collected - listed companies debts, mortgages of its people, bank interest rates, number of uncompleted buildings, etc. The supplies are simply way over the demand........ Is it possible for an important sector like real estate that contributes a major % of China's GDP to be replaced by other sectors ? With no strong stimulus from the Government to provide more assurance support, I do not see how these big boys can come out from the dark. They are still heavily in debt and holds plenty of unbuild, partial completed buildings....... From an investor point of view, I will wait out though several tier 3 cities developers are offering properties like selling cabbage . Watch video here Unless you have lots of spare cash and are parking some at these properties to wait out the tide to turn, the video shows low employment opportunities in these backward cities. Can one possibly consider living in these places for long term when basic amenities are not fully equipped? Much more research need to be done than simply drawn to the ridiculously low price.
HKEX:2007
by dchua1969