US weather concerns push soybeans, corn towards 4% weekly gain

Chicago soybean and corn futures were roughly flat on Friday, although set for weekly gains of around 4% after forecasts for arid conditions in the central United States led to concerns that U.S. production may be smaller than expected.

Wheat futures inched higher, but were down nearly 1% from last Friday's close, with the market well-supplied by ongoing harvests in the northern hemisphere.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ZS1! was down 0.1% at $10.78-1/4 a bushel, as of 0437 GMT, with CBOT corn ZC1! up 0.1% at $4.21 a bushel and wheat ZW1! 0.1% higher at $5.38-1/4 a bushel.

All three are near their lowest levels since 2020 and speculators are betting further price falls.

Hot, dry weather forecast for the U.S. Midwest lifted corn and soybeans, with up to 20% of the U.S. corn crop likely to be stressed in the next two weeks, according to Commodity Weather Group.

Dry conditions in Ukraine and Romania are also impacting corn production, but supply of both corn and soy should still be plentiful, said Dennis Voznesenski, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney.

Solid U.S. export sales also supported prices.

Weekly U.S. soybean export sales were 829,700 metric tons for 2024-25, at the upper-end of analyst estimates, and weekly corn export sales of 745,200 tons for 2024-25 exceeded analyst estimates.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) also on Thursday reported the sale of 264,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown buyers for 2024-25.

"On wheat there could be a bit more a supportive story," Voznesenski said, pointing to risks to crops from hot, dry weather in Canada and parts of the Black Sea region.

So far, however, favourable U.S. and Russian harvest prospects have offset an expected drop in western European production.

Scouts on an annual North Dakota crop tour on Thursday projected that hard red spring wheat yields in the top-producing state will average 54.5 bushels per acre, the highest according to records going back to 1992.

U.S. wheat exports were sluggish, meanwhile, with sales for the week ended July 18 at 309,300 metric tons near the low-end of trade expectations.