Gold holds steady with focus on Fed's policy decision, outlook

Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday as the markets focused squarely on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and projections for 2025, due later in the day.

Spot gold GOLD steadied at $2,642.08 per ounce by 0803 GMT. U.S. gold futures GOLD were 0.1% lower at $2,657.90.

The Fed began its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a focus on its updated economic projections and the dot plot, which could give more clues into the interest rate trajectory through 2025 and 2026.

The U.S. central bank will release its policy statement at 1900 GMT, followed by remarks from Chair Jerome Powell.

Markets see a 95.4% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at this meeting, but only expect a roughly 16% chance of a reduction in January, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

"We could be looking at a stronger gold price by the day's close after the Fed's announcement. The market may have priced out too many cuts for next year so if the Fed implies two cuts, that could benefit gold for a pop higher," Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index said.

Data on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November, adding to warmer inflation readings in recent months and suggesting that the central bank could pause its easing cycle in January.

A potentially less dovish Fed in 2025, coupled with the incoming Trump administration enacting steep corporate tax cuts and higher trade tariffs may ignite inflationary pressures and likely trigger a further rise in longer-term U.S. Treasury yields, said Kelvin Wong, OANDA's senior market analyst for Asia Pacific.

High rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

On traders' radar is also the U.S. GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures price index data, set to be released later this week.

Spot silver XAGUSD1! was down 0.6% at $30.36 per ounce, platinum PL1! slipped 0.6% to $932.76, and palladium XPDUSD1! dropped 0.6% to $928.90.