BTC & SPX vs Yield Curve: Recession Risk Zones

Mar 25

BTC & SPX vs Yield Curve – Recession Risk Zones

This tool helps you track Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPX) against key macro signals from the U.S. yield curve to spot potential recession risks.

🟪 Color Legend:
🔴 Red = Yield curve is inverted (warning starts)

🟡 Yellow = Projected 6–18 month recession risk (if inversion still active)

🟠 Orange = Active 6–18 month risk window (after inversion ends)

💜 Fuchsia = Real historical U.S. recessions

📈 What’s Plotted:
🔵 BTCUSD (blue line) – Normalized price

🟢 S&P 500 (green line) – Normalized price

🟠 10Y–2Y Yield Spread – Macro signal for risk

✅ Use it to:
Spot macro pressure zones

See how BTC and SPX behave around economic stress

Stay cautious when red/orange/yellow areas appear

Let me know if you'd like to enable toggles to hide/show BTC or SPX independently!

Mar 25

Release Notes

📘 BTC & SPX vs Yield Curve – Recession Risk Zones
This macro tool helps you identify when Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPX) may be at risk based on the U.S. 2Y–10Y yield curve and historical recession timing.

🧠 How It Works:
Strong Inversion Triggered (🔴 Red):
When the yield spread drops below -0.15%, a strong inversion begins — a proven early warning signal for economic trouble.

True Un-Inversion Detected:
The script waits until the spread crosses back above 0% after a strong inversion.
This confirms a "true un-inversion" — historically a key signal before recessions.

Recession Risk Period (🟠 Orange):
After a true un-inversion, the script tracks a 6–18 month warning window, where recession risk is elevated.

Projected Risk (🟡 Yellow):
If the strong inversion is still active, this area forecasts where the risk zone could occur in the future.

Historical Recessions (💜 Fuchsia):
Recession periods from the 1980s onward are shaded to validate how well this logic matches history.

📈 What’s Plotted:
🔵 BTCUSD (blue line) – Normalized price

🟢 SPX (green line) – Normalized price

🟠 Yield spread (orange line) – 10Y minus 2Y yield

✅ Use It To:
Time macro conditions affecting BTC & SPX

Avoid entering high-risk periods blindly

See how major assets react around real economic events