Nas100Expecting to see a short fall here for Nas100. We have a 1:3 R:R with this setup and it is based off the 3 minute timeframe.
USATEC trade ideas
NAS100 Update - FED IR Decision TodayHow I see it:
BIG PIVOT AREA FOR NASDAQ BETWEEN
19960.00
&
19112.00
Breakout Catalyst - Pending Interest Rate Decision:
If there is any "WISPER" of further rate cuts this year,
"IT WILL BE POSITIVE FOR STOCKS"
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis
Nasdaq Elliott wave study … math study ..
Refined Elliott Wave Count (Higher Degree)
Let’s re-evaluate the larger wave structure with more precision by focusing on the price action from late 2024 to mid-March 2025:
Wave 1 (Impulsive):
Start: The low around late 2024 appears to be near 18,250 (approximated from the chart’s early price action).
End: The first significant high is around 19,500, which occurred in early January 2025.
Length: 19,500 - 18,250 = 1,250 points.
This move up is Wave 1 of the higher-degree impulsive wave.
Wave 2 (Corrective):
Start: 19,500.
End: The pullback to around 18,750 (a low in mid-January 2025).
Retracement: 19,500 - 18,750 = 750 points, which is a 60% retracement of Wave 1 (1,250 × 0.618 = 772 points). This is a deep but acceptable retracement for Wave 2, as Wave 2 can retrace up to 61.8% of Wave 1 without invalidating the count.
Wave 2 appears to have completed around 18,750.
Wave 3 (Impulsive):
Start: 18,750.
End: The high at 21,750, which occurred in early March 2025.
Length: 21,750 - 18,750 = 3,000 points.
Fibonacci Extension: Wave 3 often extends to 1.618 or 2.618 times the length of Wave 1.
1.618 × 1,250 = 2,022.5 points.
From the Wave 2 low: 18,750 + 2,022.5 = 20,772.5.
2.618 × 1,250 = 3,272.5 points.
From the Wave 2 low: 18,750 + 3,272.5 = 22,022.5.
The actual Wave 3 length (3,000 points) is very close to the 2.618 extension (3,272.5 points), which is typical for Wave 3 in a strong trending market like the Nasdaq 100. This confirms that the high at 21,750 is likely the end of Wave 3.
Wave 4 (Corrective):
Start: 21,750.
Current Price: 19,490.7 (as of March 19, 2025).
Retracement Levels:
23.6% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.236) = 21,750 - 708 = 21,042.
38.2% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.382) = 21,750 - 1,146 = 20,604.
50% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.5) = 21,750 - 1,500 = 20,250.
61.8% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.618) = 21,750 - 1,854 = 19,896.
Current Position: The price at 19,490.7 has retraced slightly beyond the 61.8% level (19,896), which is a deep retracement but still within the acceptable range for Wave 4. In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 can retrace up to 78.6% of Wave 3 in some cases, especially in indices:
78.6% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.786) = 21,750 - 2,358 = 19,392.
The price is very close to the 78.6% retracement (19,392) and is also testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 19,425, providing strong confluence for a potential Wave 4 low.
Wave 5 (Projected Impulsive):
Wave 5 typically equals the length of Wave 1 or reaches a Fibonacci extension of the entire Wave 1-3 move.
Wave 1 Length: 1,250 points.
From the potential Wave 4 low at 19,490.7: 19,490.7 + 1,250 = 20,740.7.
0.618 Extension of Wave 1-3:
Wave 1-3 range: 18,250 to 21,750 = 3,500 points.
0.618 × 3,500 = 2,163 points.
From the Wave 4 low: 19,490.7 + 2,163 = 21,653.7.
1.0 Extension of Wave 1-3:
1.0 × 3,500 = 3,500 points.
From the Wave 4 low: 19,490.7 + 3,500 = 22,990.7.
Channel Target: The upper boundary of the ascending channel is around 22,250 (as marked on the chart), which aligns closely with the 0.618 extension target of 21,653.7 and suggests a realistic Wave 5 target in the 21,650–22,250 range.
2. Sub-Wave Structure of Wave 4 (A-B-C Correction)
Wave 4 is a corrective wave, typically unfolding in a three-wave A-B-C structure. Let’s break it down with more precision:
Wave A:
Start: 21,750.
End: The first significant low after the peak, which is around 20,276 (a previous support level marked on the chart).
Length: 21,750 - 20,276 = 1,474 points.
Wave B:
Start: 20,276.
End: The bounce to 20,833 (a minor high before the next decline).
Length: 20,833 - 20,276 = 557 points.
Retracement of Wave A: 557 / 1,474 = 37.8%, which is close to a typical 38.2% retracement for Wave B in an A-B-C correction.
Wave C:
Start: 20,833.
Current Price: 19,490.7.
Length So Far: 20,833 - 19,490.7 = 1,342.3 points.
Wave C Projections:
Wave C often equals Wave A: 1,474 points.
From the Wave B high: 20,833 - 1,474 = 19,359.
Wave C can extend to 1.618 × Wave A: 1,474 × 1.618 = 2,384.9 points.
From the Wave B high: 20,833 - 2,384.9 = 18,448.1.
Current Position: The price at 19,490.7 is very close to the 1:1 projection of Wave C (19,359), suggesting that Wave C (and thus Wave 4) is likely nearing completion. The deeper projection to 18,448 seems less likely unless the price breaks below the channel support at 19,425.
3. Confluence with the Ascending Channel
The ascending channel provides additional context for the Elliott Wave count:
Lower Channel Support: The price is currently testing the lower boundary of the channel at 19,425, which aligns closely with the 78.6% retracement of Wave 3 (19,392) and the 1:1 Wave C projection (19,359). This confluence of levels strengthens the case for a Wave 4 low.
Middle of the Channel: The middle of the channel (around 20,276–20,833) acted as resistance during the Wave B bounce and will likely be the first target for Wave 5.
Upper Channel Resistance: The upper boundary of the channel (around 22,250) aligns with the projected Wave 5 target, providing a realistic endpoint for the impulsive wave.
4. RSI Analysis in the Context of Elliott Wave
The RSI is currently at 44.2, down from a recent low of around 40.
Wave 4 and RSI: In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 corrections often coincide with RSI readings near oversold levels (30–40). The RSI dipping to 40 and now showing a slight uptick (with a green arrow) suggests that selling pressure may be exhausting, which is typical at the end of a Wave 4 correction.
Bullish Divergence: The RSI is starting to turn upward while the price is near support, indicating a potential bullish divergence. This supports the idea that Wave 4 is nearing completion and Wave 5 may begin soon.
5. More Accurate Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Wave 5 Upward):
Confirmation: A bounce above 19,490.7, followed by a break above 20,276 (the Wave B high), would confirm the start of Wave 5.
Targets:
First target: 20,276–20,833 (middle of the channel and previous highs).
Second target: 21,653.7 (0.618 extension of Wave 1-3).
Final target: 22,250 (upper channel boundary and potential Wave 5 completion).
Wave 5 Sub-Waves: Wave 5 itself will likely unfold in five sub-waves, so we can expect some consolidation or minor pullbacks as it progresses toward the target.
Bearish Scenario (Deeper Correction):
Invalidation: If the price breaks below 19,425 (the lower channel support), it could invalidate the current Elliott Wave count. A break below 19,000 (the Wave 1 high) would confirm that the larger trend has shifted.
Alternative Count: If the move from 18,750 to 21,750 was a corrective wave (e.g., a larger Wave B), we could be in a larger Wave C down. Targets for a deeper correction would be:
19,000 (psychological support).
18,448 (1.618 extension of Wave A in the A-B-C correction).
18,250 (the start of the larger wave structure).
6. Key Levels to Watch
Support:
19,425 (lower channel boundary and current support).
19,392 (78.6% retracement of Wave 3).
19,359 (1:1 Wave C projection).
19,000 (psychological level and Wave 1 high; a break below this would invalidate the bullish count).
Resistance:
20,276 (Wave B high and middle of the channel).
20,833 (previous high within the channel).
21,653.7 (Wave 5 target based on 0.618 extension).
22,250 (upper channel boundary and final Wave 5 target).
7. Conclusion with More Accurate Details
Current Wave Position: The price is likely completing Wave 4 of a higher-degree impulsive wave, with the A-B-C correction nearing its end around 19,359–19,425. The deep retracement to 78.6% of Wave 3 (19,392) and the alignment with the lower channel support (19,425) provide strong confluence for a Wave 4 low.
Next Move: If the price holds above 19,425 and breaks above 20,276, Wave 5 is likely underway, targeting 21,653.7–22,250. The RSI showing signs of a reversal (bullish divergence) supports this scenario.
Trading Strategy:
Bullish: Enter a long position on a confirmed bounce above 19,490.7, with a stop-loss below 19,425. Target 20,276 as the first level, followed by 20,833 and 22,250.
Bearish: If the price breaks below 19,425, consider a short position with a stop-loss above 19,490.7, targeting 19,000 and potentially 18,448.
Risk Management: The deep retracement in Wave 4 suggests higher volatility, so use tight stop-losses and monitor price action closely for confirmation of the next wave.
Order Block @19482 | Buy SignalPrice created a change of character and inducement shortly after. It then swept the inducement going to mitigate the order block that created the change of character. It created a change of character after mitigating the order block which was confirmation for the buy signal. I couldn't enter in that order block but price created a break of structure which had an order block which was further confirmation for the buy signal so that where the re-entry will be, targeting the next swing high.
NAS100 very short term direction CAPITALCOM:US100 on 4H timeframe made a HL on Mar 13, and then a CHoCH and HH on Mar 17. The price usually retrace after a BOS or CHoCH, and yes, it did yesterday (Mar 18) back to 61.8%Fib retracement line. I anticipate that CAPITALCOM:US100 might hit 20,243 in a couple of days. This is a pure guess though.
NAS100 Potential Intraday Shorts (Technical Analysis)Technical Outlook:
The price action since late February has been decisively bearish, characterized by a significant decline throughout March, indicating a clear mid-term distribution phase. We observed a recent rejection from a 4H and 1H supply zone (which fell within a pronounced drop-base-drop pattern). Notably, the most recent downward push failed to establish new lows. This follows a period of rapid decline with minimal bullish resistance. This suggests two possibilities:
Bulls are strategically allowing sellers to exhaust themselves before a potential countermove.
The prevailing bearish momentum is overpowering any attempts at bullish recovery.
Trading Considerations:
The daily candle has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, confirming strong selling pressure. My trading strategy involves waiting for a price retracement back into the identified supply zone. This pullback would serve to fill existing price imbalances and trigger resting orders above, providing an opportunity to enter short positions with improved risk-to-reward ratios on lower timeframes (LTFs). Currently, there are no indications of significant bullish manipulation. Therefore, I anticipate continued downward momentum this week. It's plausible that we might witness a final bearish surge coinciding with the FOMC announcement before a potential bullish reversal - a hypothetical scenario based on technical analysis.
Final Notes:
The previous instance of the price trading this far below the 200 EMA occurred in December 2022, marking the culmination of a year-long bearish trend. While we are currently only one month into this downward movement, it's crucial to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. Although a bullish rally is possible, I will maintain a bearish bias and focus on short opportunities until a clear bullish reversal pattern emerges on the 4H and 1H timeframes. When such a reversal occurs, we will be ready to capitalize on the subsequent upward trend! ;)
Emergence of Bear Flag in Nasdaq The price action seems to be suggesting the formation of Bear Flag Pattern.
The price fell steeply and then gave a pullback, which is getting sold into.
As the channel of flag breaks downwards, the fall may gain momentum.
Further price action will confirm or negate the pattern, it may move cleanly or will have whipsaws.
If the price starts consolidating for long here, rather than breaking downwards, the pattern may fail.
Trade Safe
NSDQ100 INTRADAY Oversold bounce back capped at 19972Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 19972
Resistance Level 2: 20127
Resistance Level 3: 20658
Support Level 1: 19124
Support Level 2: 18732
Support Level 3: 18100
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Hanzo | Nas100 15 min Breaks Structure – Confirm the Next Move🆚 Nas100 – The Way of the Silent Blade
⭐️ We do not predict—we calculate.
We do not react—we execute.
Patience is our shield. Precision is our sword.
🩸 market is a battlefield where hesitation means death. The untrained fall into traps, chasing shadows, believing in illusions. But we are not the crowd. We follow no signal but the one left behind by Smart Money. Their footprints are our way forward.
🩸 Bullish Structure Shatters -
Key Break Confirms the Path – 19830
reasons
Liquidity Swwep
liquidity / choch
key level / multi retest before
weekly / monthly zone
🩸 Bearish Structure Shatters
Key Break Confirms the Path – 19700 Zone
our reversal always at key level
even a reversal area is well studded
reasons
Liquidity Swwep
liquidity / choch
key level / multi retest before
weekly / monthly zone
🔻 This is the threshold where the tides shift. If price pierces this level with authority, it is no accident—it is designed. The liquidity pool above has been set, and the institutions will claim their prize. Volume must confirm the strike. A clean break, a strong push, and the path is set.
Watch the volume. Watch the momentum. Strike without doubt
US100 - Uptrend in Motion with Key Support LevelsOverview:
The US100 is currently trading within a well-defined upward channel, forming higher lows and maintaining a strong bullish structure. The price action suggests that as long as it stays within this channel, the bullish momentum is intact. However, there are key levels to watch if the structure is broken. A break below the channel could lead to a retracement toward an imbalance zone, which may act as a strong support area. If this level fails to hold, a deeper correction could follow.
Uptrend and Higher Lows Indicate Strength
The market is making consistent higher lows, confirming the presence of an uptrend.
The price remains within the ascending channel, suggesting that buyers are in control.
As long as the channel holds, we can expect a continuation of the bullish move with higher highs
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Continuation Within the Channel
If the price continues to respect the channel structure, we could see further upside movement.
A bounce from the lower trendline of the channel would confirm strength and could lead to new highs.
Retracement to the Imbalance Zone
If the price breaks below the channel, it may find support at the imbalance zone.
This area has previously acted as a reaction point, and buyers could step in again.
A strong bullish reaction from this zone would provide confirmation for a potential move back up.
Bearish Breakdown Below the Imbalance Zone
If the imbalance zone fails to hold, selling pressure could increase.
This could trigger a deeper pullback, leading to a test of lower support levels.
Key Levels to Watch:
Channel Support – If price remains inside, expect continued bullish momentum.
Imbalance Zone – A critical area where price could find support if the channel breaks.
Lower Support Levels – If both the channel and imbalance zone fail, a larger correction could follow.
Conclusion:
US100 remains bullish as long as it trades inside the channel, with higher lows supporting the uptrend. However, traders should monitor the channel breakout, as a move below could lead to a retest of the imbalance zone. If buyers hold this level, the uptrend may resume, but failure to hold could open the door for a further drop.
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NAS100 possibility of price rising/Divergence with US30On the higher timeframe, NAS100 maintains a bullish momentum. In recent days, the index has experienced a decline from the 22,226 high to 19,113. Notably, it has been trading within a rising channel and is currently positioned near the channel's support area. On lower timeframes, a divergence with the Dow Jones Index (US30) has been observed, suggesting a potential reversal. If a reversal occurs, an upward move toward 20,625 is anticipated, with a potential extension to 21,360.
