LONG PALLADIUM - XPDUSD, PA!Very bullish pattern about to be completed...
Waiting confirmation for a strong breakout
PDM2019 trade ideas
PALLADIUM | XPDUSD: Prepare to SELL!Over the next couple of weeks, be ready to sell Palladium on the pullback! This is a ERL to IRL to ERL move in the making! Don't miss it!
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I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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Palladium: Analyzing the Recent Surge in PricesSince the beginning of August 2024, Palladium has experienced a notable surge in value, reaching approximately $1,250 today. This strong bullish rally signals renewed interest in the precious metal, driven by various market dynamics. However, as the price approaches a critical supply area, traders must exercise caution and prepare for potential market reversals.
Price Movement and Historical Context
The recent price increase in Palladium has not gone unnoticed, and it coincides with a historical trend. Over the past five years, data shows that Palladium has typically encountered a reversal in value around this time of year. This historical pattern serves as a vital reference point for traders considering their next moves.
Evaluating Supply Areas and Potential Reversals
As Palladium nears a significant supply area, it becomes essential to analyze price action carefully. Before contemplating any short positions, it is prudent to wait for a clear bearish pattern to emerge. This approach minimizes the risk of entering prematurely, particularly in a market characterized by bullish momentum.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Insights
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals contrasting positions among market participants. Retail traders appear to be holding long positions, indicating optimism regarding Palladium's future performance. Conversely, "smart money" or institutional investors have begun to build bearish positions, suggesting that they anticipate a potential downturn. This divergence in sentiment may create a volatile environment as both sides adjust their strategies.
The Importance of Patience
In the current landscape, patience is crucial. Rushing into trades without solid confirmation can lead to unfavorable outcomes. By waiting for a clear bearish signal, traders can better position themselves for potential market reversals. This disciplined approach aligns with the principles of risk management and enhances the chances of executing successful trades.
Conclusion
In summary, Palladium's recent rally to $1,250 places it at a critical juncture. As it approaches a historically significant supply area, traders must remain vigilant and analytical. Observing the emergence of a bearish pattern, coupled with insights from the COT report, will be essential in determining the appropriate timing for any potential short positions.
With patience and a strategic mindset, traders can navigate the current market conditions effectively. What are your thoughts on Palladium's trajectory, and how do you plan to position yourself in this evolving landscape?
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This could be the lowLooking at the RUS:PD1! contract:
After completing the three impulse waves (1, 3, 5) upward, Palladium futures entered a steep downward correction, reaching the final Fibonacci level (76.4%). It appears that the price is now forming the first green daily candle in a long time. With an upward-pointing elliptical trendline, this could mark the low. We’ll need to wait for confirmation in the coming trading days. Additionally, Palladium’s bullish seasonality is set to begin soon, suggesting a potentially strong end to the year. Let’s see how it unfolds!
Metals Set Up For Sells Based on COT AnalysisGold, Silver & Palladium are nicely setup for shorts if we get a confirmed bearish trend change on the daily.
Worth noting, Palladium recently had a major bullish divergence trigger, which implies higher prices coming for this market.
Enjoy your week.
Ducks in A Barrel Long Setups - BTC, SOL, TON & PADISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This for educational purposes only to show how I am looking to participate in these markets. Trading involves significant risk, do your own homework and due diligence.
Ducks in a Barrel Weekly-Daily Strategy
LONGS: BTC, SOL, TON
SHORT: PA
LONGS:
The crypto market is overall in a strong up trend based on weekly MA's sloping up. We see that BTC, SOL & TON are undervalued vs the price of Gold and Treasuries, and are oversold on stochastic. If we see a trend change to the upside on the Daily chart, I'll look to long these markets. I admit, I'd like to see sentiment more bearish, as currently sentiment is in the middle of the road. Perhaps one more flush to the downside would create some panic and bearish sentiment, which would make this trade idea even more valid.
SHORTS:
Palladium is in a strong weekly downtrend. Right now we are overvalued vs treasuries, but not yet overvalued vs gold or overbought. I'd like to see this market get overbought & overvalued vs gold to qualify looking for shorts on the daily time frame.
Good luck & Good trading.
Palladium 1hr fibPalladium is sitting pretty at the 1hr fib retracement levels. If the economy keeps roaring, so does Palladium; get some. Stop below.
Palladium short Gonna sell when price get back to that zone
Holding till my fundamentals says differently from my bias
Palladium long After checking my fundamentals
I have identified a supply on weekly tf
Now I’m expecting price to close and test this supply giving me a entry to go short
Palladium is breaking out of the long-term downtrendTechnical Analysis of Palladium:
Palladium may now be in the process of establishing a bottom after a sharp decline from around USD 3,000 to today around USD 1,000.
Solid technical support has been established for Palladium around USD 850, and on the upside there is an important technical resistance level around USD 1,120.
An established break above USD 1,120 will trigger a strong technical buy signal for Palladium, which will then have the potential to initially reach USD 1,350, which will then be the next important technical resistance level.
Further up, there is an important technical resistance level around USD 1,600.
Palladium has now broken above the 50-day moving average, and is also about to break above the 200-day moving average.
The overall technical picture for Palladium now signals that a break above the important technical resistance level around USD 1,120 could come shortly.
In that case, it will trigger a strong technical buy signal for Palladium, which is then considered to have a potential of around USD 1,600 in the 3-6 month term.
Palladium appears to be becoming more inexpensiveCould be a decent buy at these prices considering the historical prices of palladium which were higher at one time and the rsi and macd indicators do look especially oversold might not be the worst time to ease into a position especially since the dealers are all showing palladium as being in stock which historically was hard to find
Palladium and SilverAre we on the cusp of an epic 8 year run for #silver and #palladium?
I'll let this chart help you make up your mind...
Palladium priced in goldIf you are wondering why #Palladium is bouncing...
A bounce does not imply an immediate trend reversal
Buy palladium ahead of CPIThe technical side aligns well, Volume is going up.
CCI divergence is strong.
Huge potential upwards, especially long term 10 years. Since the price is very low. I mean, the production costs of palladium are around this level
Palladium ETF better than CFD instrument if you want to capture the full potential.
Said that. This week is full of data, with CPI on Tuesday 12th (tomorrow), so manage your risk accordingly
PA1!: K.O. or bear-trap Round 2?With rate cut questions fueled by the West's bumbling towards another Mid-East war, palladium bears have returned the recent pump to sender with a vengeance. Factor in more EVs and the future for the PGMs looks bleak, right? But a closer look suggests not is all as it seems for these precious metals with their unique properties.
A recent Reuters article from December 2023 revealed that Russian and Chinese scientists with government backing "have been conducting semi-industrial tests of palladium-based catalysts for the hydrogen industry's water electrolysis and fuel cell technology," with the tests "due to be completed in the first quarter of 2024." With Russia being the largest miner of palladium and China the biggest importer, these new "products could add 40 metric tons of global demand for palladium by 2030, offsetting a surplus of 10-20 tons owing to the expected reduction in consumption by the automotive industry by the same year". Furthermore, tests of these new "palladium-based catalysts for the chemicals industry will start in the second quarter" of 2024 with focus also on the "development of a palladium-based photocell..for the solar power sector." (source: www.reuters.com)
Add to this equation massive US investment in a hydrogen economy as evidenced by the number of projects presenting at CES '24 and PA1! is worth keeping an eye on.
(Disclaimer: Any and all ideas and or comments published by me is not financial advice and you trade at your own risk.)
Palladium is on secular bull and has a lot to go!/Palladium is the best commodity in town, in an ever rising trend since inception and with another 8/10 years to go...
Palladim UpdatePalladium is one of the most clearly bullish commods in a secular bull market... could see around 1k if current support goes (which seems likely at the moment)...
Palladium: deaths, taxes and PA1!They say only deaths and taxes are certain, and yet palladium's recent pump and dump has been so clockwork it puts German trains to shame. They also say markets never travel in straight lines, but clearly they haven't traded palladium which has now retraced all the way back to where it pumped from. On the 4 hourly chart, the precious metal has been swimming with the fishes under the RSI's oversold for more than week and yet despite appearances it can't stay there forever. With the economy in soft-landing rude health and interest rate cuts in sight, hints of which likely spurred this metal out of its slumber, how long until we see another clockwork pump back up to the daily 200MA and beyond?
Palladium: looking for directionAfter a fantastic pump, the profit taking dump has been relentlessly orderly and is now at a crossroads. Currently bouncing off the .786 Fib, will we see a bullish trend emerge with a higher monthly high, or will demand continue to lag and its bear channel resume? One thing that may be worth considering here is palladium's importance in hydrogen energy production. If hydrogen fuel is going to feature strongly in the transition to clean energy as global investment in it indicates, then palladium may well be currently selling at a discounted price.
Palladium: Time for the Turnaround! 🔄Palladium is heading a little further downwards: the price is now drilling deeper and deeper into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: $1092 - $997). We expect that the low of wave B in turquoise will be deposited within this price range and that the trend reversal to the north will then succeed, which should subsequently bring us the price increases in wave C in turquoise. All technical conditions have now been met for this low; however, we allow the price to move a little lower again within our Zone. To hedge or minimize the risk of long trades, a stop 1% below the lower edge of the Zone can be placed. However, if the primarily expected bullish trend reversal succeeds, the metal should soon break above the resistance at $1257 and thus gain fresh upward momentum.
Palladium ready to blow off topPalladium had been in a bearish channel for some time, but after a double bottom it's gone W in a big way. That way has been nearly vertical but is now looks exhausted. Having been rejected from the 1.618 Fib, profit taking will be next as everyone gets ready to race for the door. Looking closer on the 4H chart, the 50MA is about to cross up over the 200, which is a golden cross on a daily chart, but a look at price action and it's meekly dribbling sideways while the RSI remains precariously in overbought territory. Unless there have been abrupt orders for 50 million additional combustion engine cars no-one's talking about, this puppy otherwise in a demand death bleed is ready to blow off top.
Palladium power playTrading Idea: Buy PAUSD (Palladium)
A decline in CME Palladium's commodity price has been observed over the past three months.
Idea core logic:
This long trading strategy identifies commodities with current prices that are significantly higher than their 200-day, 50-day, and 21-day moving averages. The strategy also looks for commodities with an exponential slow moving average that is significantly higher than the current price.
By analyzing these metrics, the strategy generates notable support and resistance levels. Traders can use these levels for market entry and exit, maximizing their profit potential.
Trading Strategy:
Asset Symbol: PAUSD
Latest Price: $1,139.75
Asset Class: Commodity
Rationale:
The price of PAUSD has been on a decline over the past three months, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
PAUSD's current price is significantly lower than its 200-day, 50-day, and 21-day moving averages, suggesting that it may be undervalued.
The exponential slow moving average for PAUSD is significantly higher than the current price, indicating a potential upward trend.
By buying PAUSD at its current price, traders can take advantage of the potential price reversal and profit from the expected upward movement.
Risk Assessment:
This trading idea is suitable for a moderately short investment horizon and a high risk tolerance.
As with any investment, there is always a risk of loss. Traders should carefully manage their risk and set appropriate stop-loss levels.
It is recommended to closely monitor the market and adjust the trading strategy accordingly based on the provided facts.
Technical Outlook
CME Palladium has receded 44.8 below a resistance level of 1,103.33. In the near term, the Palladium future is approaching its 21 day Simple Moving Average at $1,140.24.
The uptrend of CME Palladium continues, with its share price rising 3.26% over the past 9 days. Today, it is expected to rise a further $2.23, or 0.2%.
During the first half of today's session, the Palladium future rebounded from earlier losses, recovering from lows around $1,128.78.
Over the past month, there has been a downward trend in CME Palladium's share price, with a decline of 9.31%.
However, there are signs of a possible bullish phase emerging. Palladium has broken above its 21 day Simple Moving Average at 1,140.24. This could indicate the start of a new bullish trend. Furthermore, CME Palladium is pushing upwards towards a key Bollinger Band® level around 1,172.
Extensive multifactorial technical analysis suggests that CME Palladium will continue to extend its strong run in the short-medium term. Today, it reached as high as $1,143.78. With all probabilities considered, the Palladium future is expected to appreciate amid a risk-on mood in the coming days.
In comparison, other commodities are also showing positive movements. Platinum is currently trading at around 949.05, up 0.97% from the previous session's close of 939.9. Meanwhile, Copper recorded a gain of 0.23% despite touching lows around $1,128.78.
Palladium is the MOST mis understood precious metal... Palladium is the MOST mis understood precious metal...
When it goes drastically DOWN, it sets up the stage for silver (and gold) to SKY ROCKET.
We are APPROACHING that moment.
Wen moon?
#palladium #gold #siler
