GOLD and REAL RATES (Inflation)Real Rates and Gold
Another way to look at Real Rates is by looking at the difference between TIP (Treasury Inflation-Protected securities) and SHY (1-3 years Bond Yield).
When the diff. is positive you have Inflation and as you probably know, gold likes inflation.
Looking at TIP-SHY compare to Gold, each time we have divergence, gold wins … :).
TIP trade ideas
Tip and Gold ShortTip and Gold Short. Tip sold to day and we are over extended just like gold think we will now start to head down as gold will drop with TIP I now think that we might get a interest rate hike witch will help banks next week and gold will fall out of the skys. Gold is in green look how they work together.
TIP monthly - where is the inflation? - 8/19/2015TIP lost another dollar and change this month (so far), 10 month MA is pointing downward. RSI broke trend and MACD is negative. So Fed can raise rate at this point? I do not think so.
Also no point for Fed to raise rate at a time when commodities are crashing, and China is floating their currency down.
I expect more unwinding of rate hike expectation, and thus weaker dollar, stronger commodities, stronger emerging market and stronger bonds.
TIP monthly update - bearish - 6/5/2015TIP started June with a bearish tone with support broken (tentatively). Note the serial lower highs since last October and downward pointing 10 month MA. RSI is weakening with broken support and MACD is turning negative (so far).
With this backdrop I highly doubt the Fed will raise rate any time soon, as that makes no sense.
TIP monthly - bearish - 5/20/2015TIP is weakening since the start of the year and is now breaking the red support. TIP usually is used to hedge inflation risk for bond investors (it has 13.68 B asset with a yield of 1.63%). Note the 10 MA is rolling over and now pointing down.
If TIP is falling, meaning investors do not worry about unexpected inflation. I think this is one reason the Fed may not raise interest rate any time soon.
Inflation Expectations. TIPSvs7-10. Will long term support hold?Inflation Expectations.
iShares TIPS Bond vs iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond.
The support line noted in dashed blue, has held since the aftermath of the 2008 crash. Reaching a double bottom.
Will it hold ?
RSI is reaching support line, oversold territory.