Time to short Industrials? XLIThe XLI looks poised for another leg lower after unsuccessfully retesting the breakdown from early May ($76-$77 level). After a strong bounce out of the descending wedge in early June, the XLI could be carving out a channel off of the top it printed in early April at $78.95. This bounce came right into previous support (the 4/25 low at $76.59) and reversed lower after a big gap up at the open (6/10) to close on its low. The following day we saw an increase in volume accompanied by an increased range and bearish close. The past four sessions have seen volume dry up and tight daily ranges but even here the XLI has shown a lack of real demand: aside from the opening gap in 6/13, we've seen price probe lower with a weak close. Today, 6/17, we witnessed a slight uptick in volume as the ETF closed just off its low. Now, the lack of volume and tight ranges can be attributed to the upcoming rate decision on Wed but there is further evidence to suggest lower price is in the offing. A quick rundown of the top 5 holdings of the XLI and how far off their respective high each of the components is trading, truly highlights the weakness in the sector. BA (20% off Mar 1 high), 8% of the index; HON (90bps off June high), 5.6% of the index and the lone standout; UNP (8.5% off May high), 5.4% of the index; UTX (14% off May high), 4.5% of the index; MMM (24% off late April high), 4.2% of the index. Collectively, these 5 names make up 28% of the ETF and each are currently either bouncing right into resistance to retest prior breaks or already breaking down. Looking for a break of the 6/11 at $74.87 and targeting the early June low just under $72, if not lower. This is a pretty low-risk setup assuming a stop above the 6/10 high at $76.7 and offers a decent potential reward if it plays out.
