Crash Incoming ??Not trying to scare anyone but as you can see the upward trend is now in a a rising wedge.... Proceed with caution. 558.50 break and we can fall to 554
SPY trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 8-21 : Markets Top & StallAs I suggested in Monday's video, the SPY Cycle Patterns predicted today's TOP more than six months ago. Tomorrow's inside/harami pattern suggests the markets will stall out the rest of this week.
I urged traders to prepare to wait out this week and sit on the sidelines. When the markets stall like this, it is best to avoid trying to trade in tight ranges. Wait it out and maybe pick out a few great swing trades for next week's rally phase.
This update shows you why Bitcoin, Gold, and the SPY/QQQ will continue to stall and stay in a sideways price trend.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Preparing For A Potential Double-Top HereTraders,
As you all know, the SPY has been moving EXACTLY as anticipated by me the last two years. And that worries me. Don't get me wrong, I have thoroughly enjoy the profits that have come with getting it right, but what we have to be careful about when doing so well is over-confidence. Because if we don't take a couple of steps back and say to ourselves, "I could get it wrong this time", then we could likely get it wrong. The market loves to humble cocky traders. And that is why I have sold half of my longs once again ...just in case I could be wrong.
So, you can all read my previous posts and calls on the SPY, but for new readers, let me just catch you up with a brief summary to give you some context.
About 2 years ago, after the market had dropped and many investors thought it would continue down, I came under the persuasion that it would soon reverse. Though, I am a rookie when it comes to Elliot Wave, I had noticed some other contrarian traders and chartists had begun to explain from a fundamental basis why it would move up soon. These same investors began plotting a likely blow-off top scenario based on fundamentals, market psychology, and Elliot Wave theory. It made sense to me but I was hesitant to go full in based on this information alone.
I began reading more about market fundamentals and psychology and learned that most of what I read actually supported the idea of a blow-off top. Then I spotted another pattern on the daily chart (an inverse head and shoulders pattern) which strengthened the theory even more. This pattern gave me my SPY target of 570. You can still see that Previous Target outlined here on my chart. We nearly reached that target. Missed it by a few dollars. It was there that I sold half. And right on time. The Japanese carry trade flash crashed the markets and down we went. As we were nearing the 200 DMA, I spotted a new bullish pattern on the weekly chart. This was a Cup and Handle. I bought back in near the bottom recognizing that this blow-off top was probably not at an end ...yet.
Fast forward to today.
We are once again nearing my Previous Target of SPY 570 and though we could move even higher (and I honestly believe we will), I want to prepare for a scenario where I could be wrong. You can see from the chart here that we may also be forming a bearish double-top or M-Pattern. If this is the case, it is wise for me to prepare for another drop soon. Thus, I have once again, sold half. Should the M-Pattern play out, I will likely buy back in around the 200 DMA (wherever this happens to be at the time) because I still believe that Cup and Handle pattern on the 2-week chart will play out and that the blow-off top will not end until we reach 650-700 on the SPY.
Obviously, this forcast could change based upon significant geo-political/global events. But for now, this is how I see it going.
Scenario 2: If we do not drop and that M-Pattern becomes invalidated. I will also buy back in should we exceed my previous target on the chart. In either case, updates will follow.
Retesting the Channel for a Major Drop in SPY After Reaching 570The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is nearing the upper resistance of a long-term ascending channel. As the price approaches the key level of 570.20, we anticipate a retest of this channel, followed by a significant drop. This level could signal the start of a substantial correction, given the previous resistance and current macroeconomic factors. Keep an eye out for reversal signs at this critical level.
SPY - double top on the yearly chart? Do we get a double top or major breakthrough? I just don't see a breakthrough with all the uncertainty and election around the corner.
I expect volatility.
I am not an attorney, accountant or financial advisor, nor am I holding myself out to be, and the information contained in this post is not a substitute for financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
8/21 SPY ATR and LevelsATR For SPY is now creeping up to 7.42, nice and juicey range. Fear and Greed on the lower end of Neutral at 45. Jackhole minutes and pending discussion on rate cuts are being spread around like MPOX, .50 or .25, will there be one at all?
Geopolitical atmosphere is hearing up, Xi is in Moscow.
Putin is Puntin and Star Wars Outlaws gets released next week.
Observing 2 gaps on the downside that is a hole that needs filled everntually, if we dont get the news the market is expecting we could visit 548-544 to fill and even further below at 536-533 thas a crazy range, and not thinking it will happen anytime soon, but we got those there. however we did hit a low of 530 LAST WEEK.
For the ranges above the 559.84 8:45 am Close range I have
SCALP
SR2 562.73 (this is a level of interest)
If we can get 1 hour of volume to exceed 4.5 million, I think we go higher into Standard pop level (563.55)
SR1 561.77 (this is a level of interest)
I see we need volume over 6.1 million on the 1 hour to go into SR2 of the scalp
SPOP 560.80 (1 hour average volume I se is above 3.5 million)
R2 569.49
R1 565.78
POP 563.55
If we cant get to or exceed those volumes on the 1 hour range, the below scalp levels from the 8:45 range are:
SBREAK 558.88 (1 hour 5.2million to push past, I think if we hit this price level and not exceeding 5.2 million on the 1 hour we could see SS1)
SS1 557.91 (1 hour 4.3million to push back to SBREAK, I think if we hit this price level and not exceeding 4.3million on the 1 hour we could see SS2)
SS2 556.95 (1 hour 4.9million to push past, I think if we hit this price level and not exceeding 4.9million on the 1 hour we could see the Standard levels)
BREAK 556.17
(1 hour 4.9 million)
S1 553.24
(1 hour 6.9m)
S2 551.28
(1 hour 6.4m)
Main Focus List Review 8-21-24 EXTGoing over our Main Focus list EXT times looking for clues as to what the market wants to do and setting up a game plan for each of our focus stocks/indexes. always know where you'll get out if you're wrong. dont be a counter trader. Just Don't Do It
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-21 : Top Pattern Today.I expect the SPY to move into a moderate bullish price phase, attempting to peak somewhere below 561-563, then roll into a moderate downward price trend - possibly ending the day near 553-556.
Why do I expect the SPY to roll to the downside after peaking today? My SPY Cycle Pattern shows a TOP pattern today.
Top patterns usually start with a moderate uptrend, leading to a peak in price, followed by a moderately sustained pullback/downtrend.
The 553-556 level is the nearest moderate support level.
The 561-563 level is just above yesterday's high and well into the SPY upper GAP window, which will likely act as resistance.
Buckle up because we are moving into at least 2~3 days of trending sideways before transitioning back into the rally phase.
Gold may attempt to move above $2570 today.
Bitcoin needs to find support, otherwise a breakdown in price in likely over the next 3+ days.
It should be fun to see how things play out this week.
SPY Trading Day TNRTThis reading day about spy in a girl who likes to toast and Rita's and get money while she's mine of her business having margaritas, and say what up to the squad game/
Spy The Most Accurate Play To $560 From $510 Now What?Well Now We Are Near My $562 Price Target Its Simple I'm Sitting Out Of The Market On My Nice Profit From $510 All The Way Up To $560!!!! I'm Goin To Wait For Us To Break Over $565 For An All Time High To Enter Bk in!! Follow & Subscribe For Up To Date Trading Tips & Tricks
Weekly Trade Ideas - SPY LULU RTY VX AMZNHere's a video recap for some of my favorite trade ideas for the week. LULU is my top pick and also still riding GME and COIN puts from last week. Should be interesting, I think all of these are pretty solid. I'll recap them at the end of the week.
SPY Paths Moving ForwardSPY is at an interesting spot, it has reclaimed the downward trendline that started in early August, but is yet to reclaim the uptrend from April. We also have ATH shortly above. I could see a test of that area leading to a rejection that may bounce and eventually continue higher if it can hold the trendline.
To the downside, if it breaks below tomorrow or soon, my first target would be the gap fill below around 545. I think anywhere from the 530-540 area could as well. That's a big range, but these are decently long term trends and volatility is elevated recently so we can definitely see that area hit quickly if we do sell off and get a fakeout above rather than a breakout.
Inverted hammer Lesson with some good set up ideas I go through the chart on spy for August 20th 2024 and show the good setups throughout the day. Another losing day for me today but we keep moving forward. Thanks for watching and supporting me.
SPY pullback into structureThe last confirmed break of structure to the upside is shown as the green rectangle. Price will ALWAYS come back to test the area. We are now in bearish structure, as shown by the red Ray. And gmfor you EWavers out there, I believe us to be about to finish the B of an ex flat for Y of this WXY pattern. Tar
Carl V bearish patternThis pattern is from Bulkowski's pattern site.
Carl Vanhaesendonck or Carl V discovered the pattern.
I am seeing them on many major ETFS of USA and also world ETFs such as ACWI.
For the SPY the target is 506.
It is quite an extreme pattern and involves wild swings.
Notable the VIX has a Carl V bullish pattern targeting the 60's.
IF the target is met, the open question is does price fall further down in a more extreme panic...
SPY drop, bounce, u-turnSPY trade idea 5:1 ratio
Short = 565
Stop = 570
Profit = 540
(SPY) S&P 500 index rapidly dropped in a week, then bounced in a V shape recovery for 2 weeks, now it could u-turn back down. SPY is back at it's resistance level of it's 2 year trend channel. There's not much upside left this week from the 560 area. However, it could temporarily false breakout. I'm posting this as a short because there's way more downside than upside potential for the next month. Since there has been steady momentum going up from Monday 8/5 bounce off 510 low, this short setup will probably take a few days. It's likely a catalyst related to newsworthy current events (Macroeconomic / Geopolitical) will u-turn the momentum around.
The trajectory of this SPY 2 year trend channel ends 2024 at these levels. High: 590, mid: 570, low: 550. S&P 500 average annual return since 1957 is around 10%. Over the past 10 years SPY annual returns are:
2015 = -0.81%
2016 = 9.64%
2017 = 19.38%
2018 = -6.35%
2019 = 28.79%
2020 = 16.16%
2021 = 27.04%
2022 = -19.48%
2023 = 24.29%
2024 = 17.74% YTD
SPY options data:
8/23/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 227,406
Call Volume Total 194,390
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.17
Put Open Interest Total 453,568
Call Open Interest Total 231,880
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.96
8/30/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 106,190
Call Volume Total 71,114
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.49
Put Open Interest Total 1,325,995
Call Open Interest Total 400,252
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.31
9/6/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 34,413
Call Volume Total 27,127
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.27
Put Open Interest Total 409,413
Call Open Interest Total 82,889
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 4.94
9/13/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 26,054
Call Volume Total 32,626
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.80
Put Open Interest Total 790,615
Call Open Interest Total 72,179
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 10.95
9/20/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 240,533
Call Volume Total 90,520
Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.66
Put Open Interest Total 2,778,151
Call Open Interest Total 878,237
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.16
$SPY August 20 ,2024AMEX:SPY August 20 ,2024
15 Minutes.
For the rise 548.88 to 559.58, holding 555 levels uptrend continues for te day.
A retracement to 552 will give an opportunity to add longs.
Resistance then profit Going to watch that 565 area for some resistance ideally then hopefully a retest after that, eventually breaking through 565 for a decent profit.
Lessons From my Losses August 19th 2024 Today the price action again was not ideal. I talk about not getting into trades based on FOMO and overtrading, which I did today. I am a little upset with myself as I was not disciplined. I showed a trade with great confirmation on the 15-minute chart I missed. Let me know what you guys think in the comments and tell me about how your trading went today!
Hello traders and investors! :)Hello traders and investors, SPY will pump to 585$ and dump to 370$. So remember to take profit around 585$, and buy back millions of shares and retire when SPY is at 370$! Genious hedgefund inside insight for free just to help you guys out, have a nice day.
