AMD investors hold your sharesHello
As you see on chart, you are safe as long as it hasn't broken the corridor down yet.
Good luck
AMDD trade ideas
AMD - good DCA candidateAMD has dropped close to 50% from it's all time high, during the height of the AI exuberance. It's now in a speakerphone pattern and has entered the Golden Pocket Fibonacci retracement level. I believe this is a good opportunity to start a position, using a DCA approach, in the hope it drops more for further accumulation.
It could well drop another 20-30% from here, where I would add more for a long term hold. If you're bullish on AI and if we are indeed in the early innings of a new industrial revolution, AMD presents an excellent opportunity to get in on the longer term growth of this cyclical trend. It's true AMD is no Nvidia but the upside potential for Nvidia is far less that AMD.
Looking back at the price action, you will notice similar patterns have played out before a strong push to the upside.
This is not financial advise, do what's best for you.
AMD bearish price targetAMD has failed to hold support after failing to breakout of the descending trend line.
The preferred price target would now be $94, which is the 61.8% retracement of the move up from $54.5 to ATHs, as well as the 1 to 1 extension of the move down from the ATH to $122 from $173.
Price is however now sitting at the 200W EMA. Should price show a bullish reaction next week, the move down to $94 may not play out. Conversely, confirmation for the move down would be obtained with a breakdown of the EMA.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #2 - AMD Inverse H&SI think AMD still looks bearish on the longer time frames, but for now on the 15m it looks like a potential bottom with an inverse H&S. First upside target is $127.65 and it might go all the back up to retest the major trendline above.
Would be bearish if it falls back below the shoulders/neck line with a target area of $118-$120.
1/10/25 - $amd - Opening 2.5% position as of open1/10/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:AMD
Opening 2.5% position as of open
copy/pasting my chat w D on the USSA's day off for dead prez. bc situation fluid, but want to do this timely. AMD is a buy here in a YE context. will size up closer to $100 is TL;DR
V
the short answer is we're probably much closer to a floor than where stock will be in a 1-2Y context. interestingly they spend a massive amt of $ on a relative basis (e.g. as a % of revenue) vs. peers on R&D. for perspective NVDA is ~7-8 bn last year, amd is approaching 6 bn. so optically this "hurts" EBITDA mgn, cf generation etc. etc. and stock looks relatively more expensive.
but given su's ties to jensen (cousins i believe), what she's done w the biz, their now will-be leadership in x86 and move into more interesting applications (datacenter)... the GM should begin to flex sooner than later - so the right bogey (if there's confidence here in leadership) is probably not a '25 # but a '26 figure. should we not see any ST hiccups in 25 the stock will be a double between here and YE '26. it's objectively cheap considering execution risk.
this is a tough one for me - i've been trading AMD since the late '90s (albeit with less experience vs. today) and caused me to ultimately short it on that meteoric rise it had in the last 5-10y only to realize... something was different. zooming out - it's hard to deny execution has been good (they've basically dethroned intc from a technical advantage going back several years, and they have a capable team attacking new surfaces).
given trump, china, high 10Y rates etc. etc. nevermind it's been a weaker semi into year end '24 and to start this year... it's unclear beyond a broader sector reversal what fundamental factors/ announcements will move the stock decisively and effectively putting a true floor on the stock.
if your downside is say 20% or maybe at most 25% here, but upside (from same pt here ~$120) is also 20-25% with decent degree of confidence given cash gen, not expensive etc. etc. but where upside scenario is 100% in 2Y and downside scenario still might only be 35-40%... it's clearly a "buy". now what size is critical. do you run a concentrated book ( NYSE:TSM and NASDAQ:NVDA will lead), can you rotate out of winners into laggards
these are all portfolio decisions that depend on factors, mostly personal. but if you asked me point black "is it a buy, yes or no". the answer is, yes.
i might copy this answer b/c i've gotten this question from like 5 ppl in the last 5 days lol but haven't spelled it out in so much detail. i'd also like to understand if anyone has a real information edge here , or where we should be looking. i'd guess gross margin (and by extension gross profit) will be the main driver of stock as it portends successful use of R&D spend and CF flex w/ growth. in that vein, you could probably put this at 3% fcf and with such high growth "re-rate 30-50%" into year end (from current levels).
near $100 the stock is a 5% position, esp if it's only market related beta sell off e.g. trump comes in and everything gets whacked immediately on some tariff news or anti-china blah blah etc. that's an ez size up.
my guess is it's probably worth a 1% spot here with a wait and see approach to take it to 1.5% (even higher nevermind lower) and if we do get some 10-15% further pullback, 3% makes sense and any additional 5% probably should add 1% per 5%. in other words you're at 5% at close to $100 give or take with great risk reward for that capital to remain patient for the year.
hope that helps give my POV.
AMD Weekly Chart Support and Resistance Levels:
Key Support: AMD has found strong support around the $115-$120 zone, as marked on the chart.
Resistance Target: The upside target is set at $177, representing a potential 46% gain if the stock reclaims higher levels.
Indicators:
SMA 20 and SMA 50:
The price is currently below both the SMA 20 ($143.19) and SMA 50 ($136.60), indicating a bearish trend in the medium term. However, this could shift if AMD breaks above these levels in the coming weeks.
RSI (14):
RSI is at 38.41, indicating the stock is approaching oversold territory. This could signal a potential reversal if buyers step in.
Volume:
The volume has remained steady, but any significant breakout or breakdown would need to be confirmed by higher-than-average trading volume.
Risk/Reward:
Risk: The stop loss is set just below the $115 support level to minimize downside exposure.
Reward: The target price of $177 offers a favorable risk/reward ratio of over 2:1.
Market Context:
AMD is currently consolidating after a substantial decline from its peak. This setup might attract buyers looking for a technical bounce or a reversal pattern.
AMD's Epic Surge or Plunge: Unveiling Key Levels for 2025!Good morning, trading family! Let's talk about AMD today. If the stock price goes above $130, it could go up to $142, then $157, and maybe even $169. But if it goes below $114.12, it might drop down to between $93 and $97.
If you want to learn more about sustainable trading, feel free to join my webinar this Sunday. Send me details to learn more.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
AMD: Ready to Break Out – Confluence Supports and Bullish PatterI’ve already written a weekly analysis on NASDAQ:AMD , which you should read before this one, as it explains the broader technical and fundamental support in the bigger picture.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see the more granular movement of the stock over the last few months. The fact that we held the trendline, which has been in place since 2023, is a good sign that overarching algorithms still have an interest in the stock. The trendline also corresponds to a so-called "confluence support," where multiple support levels overlap.
1. Trendline
Trendlines alone are not reliable price action structures, as they are often broken during consolidations without affecting the overall trend. However, since this trendline is older, has been tested multiple times, and now coincides with other support levels, it serves as one of several building blocks.
2. Fibonacci Retracement
We hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (horizontal yellow line) exactly and bounced upward from there. The 61.8% Fib is always a good reversal point during pronounced consolidations, as we’ve seen here. AMD has been consolidating since March 2024, over nine months now.
3. Horizontal Support
In addition to the Fibonacci retracement, the price range between $117 and $121 was already a support area. This zone has been a support and resistance level since September 2021 and has consistently prompted strong price reactions.
4. Descending Wedge
The current leg down is forming a descending wedge, which breaks upward in more than two-thirds of cases, making it a bullish pattern. The target for a breakout is typically the highest point of the wedge, which currently means a target around $170. However, a conservative trader always plans more cautiously, so we’ve combined our target with the last gap close.
5. Gaps
While not a proper support level, the still-open daily gaps at $137 and $158 act as magnets for higher prices. These gaps lie along the path upward and make good spots to place take-profit levels.
Fundamental Reasons
AMD's Position: With the launch of the MI300 series, AMD has taken a significant step toward competing with NVIDIA in the AI GPU market. These chips are optimized for high-performance computing and generative AI.
Potential: In Q3 2024, AMD generated $1.5 billion in revenue from the data center segment, a 42% year-over-year growth. This growth is expected to accelerate further in 2025 due to AI applications.
Market share: AMD has consistently gained market share from Intel in the CPU market, especially in the server segment. According to Mercury Research, AMD’s server CPU market share rose from 23.4% in Q3 2023 to 26.5% in Q3 2024.
Forecast : With the planned launch of Zen 5 processors in H2 2025, AMD is expected to gain even more market share, driven by improved performance and energy efficiency.
EV Market: Additionally, the electric vehicle market, after weaker years in 2023 and 2024, is expected to regain momentum. This will significantly impact the semiconductor market as a whole.
AMD to $200 (61%) – Strong Support ends ConsolidationNASDAQ:AMD weekly charts looks very good. The trendline from March 2023 is intact and we also touched the 61.8 fibonacci from the complete move (starting in October 2023). The descending wedge could be broken to the upside today, which would be a bullish sign for a stronger move towards $200. All in all, many semiconductor stocks are currently on supports or are fundamentally more attractive than they were months ago.
Fundamentally NVIDIA still dominates the AI datacenter market with a market share of over 90%. But Advanced Micro Devices is improving its hardware and software offerings. The recently released MI325X and the upcoming MI350 series could give AMD more market share with faster release cycles. First signs show significant customer interest. In addition, AMD has a more stable revenue stream from other products like CPUs and non-AI datacenters. Given the high prices of NVIDIAs products the market itself should have a deeper interest in more competition.
Target Zones
$135
$160
$200
Support Zones
$117-$120
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD): Bearish Momentum Testing Key 🔥 Potential Price Targets (Next Month):
🩸 Near-term Goal: $116.00
🩸 Long-term Goal: $110.00
🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy:
🩸 Long: Above $124.64, targeting $130.00 and $135.00. Bulls need a strong reversal backed by volume to regain momentum.
🩸 Short: Below $120.12, aiming for $116.00 and $110.00. Weak MACD and declining sentiment point to further downside risks.
🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands:
🩸 Resistance: $124.64 – Clearing this level could signal a potential recovery.
🩸 Support: $120.12 – A breakdown here would confirm bearish continuation.
Analysis:
AMD is trading in a prolonged downtrend, with MACD firmly in negative territory. The stock is struggling below both the 9-day EMA ($124.64) and the 200-day EMA ($145.20), confirming bearish sentiment. Volume is declining, reflecting weak buyer interest. Traders should closely monitor support and resistance levels for the next decisive move.
👑 "Opportunities lie in disciplined execution during uncertain times." — LucanInvestor
AMD Bullish break-out above the 3-month Resistance.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) opened (and closed) yesterday above the 3-month Channel Down pattern that started after the October 09 2024 High and that is technically a strong bullish break-out signal.
The previous break-out in August 2024, eventually reached the 0.786 Fibonacci extension, which was the October 09 2024 High, before declining again.
Even though we are long-term bullish on AMD, as it even kept clear the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is its multi-month Support, we expect it to reach at least $160.00 (just below the 0.786 Fib) on the short-term.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Market Close Update: AMD Continuation Long PlayAMD continued pushing higher today, alongside NVDA, after gaining $28+ per share over the past 2 trading sessions. The partnership with StradVision on providing chips to support their Perception Based Autonomous AI Systems with the goal of delivering high-performance perception solutions for automated driving systems. Looking for a potential entry around $128.90 with at least a $133.42 Short-Term Price Target, but retesting $144.36, it's most recent High that it tested at the beginning of December 2024. Will setting our Stop Loss around $127.40 moving forward if we're able to obtain a slight pullback to get that $128 entry.
Follow us for more to connect and stay tuned with more at MyMI Wallet. @MyMIWallet #MyMIWallet
AMD for STRONG buyWhy Buy AMD Stock?
Market Leadership in Semiconductor Industry
AMD is a globally recognized leader in the semiconductor industry, producing high-performance CPUs, GPUs, and adaptive computing technologies. Its innovative products cater to a wide range of markets, including gaming, data centers, artificial intelligence (AI), and embedded systems.
Strong Financial Performance
AMD has consistently demonstrated robust financial growth, driven by strong product demand, strategic acquisitions, and efficient cost management. Its competitive product lineup continues to drive revenue growth and profitability.
Growing Market Opportunities
The increasing adoption of AI, machine learning, cloud computing, and 5G technology creates a substantial growth opportunity for AMD's advanced processors and GPUs. The company is well-positioned to capture market share in these rapidly growing sectors.
Innovation and Product Pipeline
AMD’s commitment to innovation is evident in its cutting-edge product releases, such as the Ryzen series CPUs, Radeon GPUs, and EPYC processors. These products provide industry-leading performance and efficiency, making them highly sought-after in the technology market.
Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions
AMD’s acquisition of Xilinx and strategic partnerships with industry leaders like Microsoft, Sony, and Amazon strengthen its product portfolio and expand its reach into new markets like
JUST BUY AND HOLD.
1 Stock To Buy This Week: AMDNASDAQ:AMD stands out as a compelling buy this week, with the upcoming 2025 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) serving as a major catalyst.
AMD is gearing up for a major showcase at the CES 2025 tech conference in Las Vegas, at which it is expected to reveal its next-generation GPU.
The company is scheduled to hold a press event on Monday. In the past, AMD shares tend to rally during the week of its major product presentations.
AMD = The Trader Slayer!NASDAQ:AMD
We got a lot going on here with AMD!
- In the volume gap and could fall down to the shelf at $108 or we could have just hit a double bottom with a breakout spot at $174ish.
-H5 Indicator is RED and they are in a downtrend while also forming a Bull Flag (barely).
-Sitting on the bottom of the Wr% and could form a downtrend box or start running to the upside.
It all makes sense to me. This name is an extremely difficult name to trade and has eaten the best traders whole, myself included.
One thing is clear to me! trying to trade this name right now with all of these mixed signals is risky-business! I'm steering clear until we get some certainty!
No price targets because who knows whats gonna happen. 🤣
Not financial advice.
Long AMDFundamentally, AMD maintains a strong position in the semiconductor industry, with a consensus among 31 Wall Street analysts rating the stock as a 'Moderate Buy.' The average price target is $191.96, indicating a potential upside of approximately 59% from the current price.
Recent developments, such as increased demand for AI-driven technologies, have positively impacted AMD's stock performance.
AMD's current price of $124.27 places it near the lower boundary of its regression channel, approximately two standard deviations below the mean. Statistically, prices this far from the mean represent extreme movements, occurring only about 5% of the time under normal distribution assumptions. This significant deviation suggests a high probability of mean reversion, particularly for a well-established stock like AMD, which operates in a cyclical yet fundamentally robust sector like semiconductors.
Given AMD's strong fundamentals, including its leadership in high-performance computing and AI-driven solutions, there is a reasonable expectation for its stock price to move back toward the mean during 2025. Historically, stocks that deviate this significantly often see a correction as market sentiment stabilizes. Combined with Wall Street's consensus price target of $191.96, indicating substantial upside potential, and the broader semiconductor industry's expected growth, this setup suggests a favorable risk-reward profile for long-term investors considering AMD at its current levels.
$AMD - things could be betterNASDAQ:AMD has been an absolute pain-trade for me. I committed the sin of not waiting for the bottom signal and not managing risks when the trade didn't work.
But things might be looking a little better. Both MACD and RSI are turning up, signaling that we may have at least found the bottom and there's a possibility of a potential reversal. 👀
See support and targets in the chart.
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
