BABA hitting upper resistance - will it break out? BABA starting to upturn? Wait for it to break out to confirm bullish uptrend
AAALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD CEDEAR EACH 9 REPR 1 ADS USD0.00
15,175ARSD
+75+0.50%
Last update at Jul 8, 19:59 GMT
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BABA trade ideas
$BABA Strengthening If we can get above the quarterly upper band and close. We have a real good shot at hitting the highs of $116 again.
BABA looks very bullish on the monthly and weekly charts.
We have a broken falling wedge, with a new higher high break out, with a pullback to test the back side of the main down trend and are rising back to the most recent highs. If we can close strongly in the next week or 2, I think BABA, JD, and BIDU and all going higher.
Alibaba Potential Downtrend Breakout At $81.26 16.08.2024Apply risk management
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Disclaimer
Alibaba (NYSE: $BABA) Misses First-Quarter Revenue EstimatesAlibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), China’s e-commerce giant, faced a challenging second quarter in 2024, as reflected in its earnings report that missed market expectations. The company, which has been navigating a complex economic landscape marked by rising competition and cautious consumer behavior, saw its shares dip nearly 4% in premarket trading following the disappointing results.
Key Financials and Earnings Miss
For the quarter ending June 30, 2024, Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) reported revenue of 243.24 billion Chinese yuan ($34.01 billion), falling short of the 249.05 billion yuan expected by analysts. Net income also took a hit, dropping 29% year-over-year to 24.27 billion yuan, compared to the 26.91 billion yuan expected.
The revenue increase of 4% year-on-year was overshadowed by the significant drop in net income, which the company attributed to a decline in income from operations and an increase in impairments from its investments.
Challenges in Core E-commerce Business
Alibaba's core China e-commerce business, which has been the bedrock of the company’s success, continued to face headwinds. Sales from the Taobao and Tmall group, representing Alibaba’s domestic e-commerce segment, fell by 1% year-over-year to 113.37 billion yuan. Despite efforts by CEO Eddie Wu to stabilize and rejuvenate this segment, the company is struggling against a backdrop of increased competition from rivals like JD.com and Temu’s parent company PDD Holdings.
The Chinese consumer market, which has been slow to recover from the economic downturn and high job insecurity, further exacerbates Alibaba’s challenges. Although Alibaba reported “double-digit” growth in gross merchandise value (GMV) within its Taobao and Tmall platforms, this was not enough to offset the overall revenue decline.
Global and Cloud Segments Show Promise
While the domestic market remains challenging, Alibaba's international e-commerce division offered a bright spot. Revenue in this segment grew by 32% year-over-year, driven by strong performances from platforms like Lazada and Aliexpress. This growth reflects Alibaba’s strategic focus on expanding its global footprint and catering to the increasing global demand for affordable Chinese goods.
The company’s cloud computing division also demonstrated resilience, with revenue rising 6% year-over-year to 26.5 billion yuan. This marked the fastest growth rate for the cloud segment since Q2 2022. Alibaba’s cloud unit, which has been a focal point for future growth, benefited from its investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and the introduction of new AI-related products. The cloud division’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization (EBITA) soared by 155% year-over-year, highlighting improved operating efficiency and a focus on higher-margin contracts.
Strategic Shifts and Future Outlook
Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) has been undergoing significant structural changes since 2023, including a major corporate overhaul that split the company into six business units. CEO Eddie Wu, who took over leadership in September, has been keen on refocusing the company’s strategy, particularly within its core e-commerce business. This includes reducing reliance on direct sales and enhancing monetization features for third-party merchants on Taobao and Tmall.
Wu has set ambitious goals to return the Taobao and Tmall businesses to growth by late 2025, with new monetization strategies expected to play a crucial role. However, the company remains in a transition phase, and the effectiveness of these strategies will be closely watched by investors and analysts alike.
Technical Outlook
In the premarket trading session on Thursday, Alibaba's (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) stock experienced a decline of 3.57%. The daily price chart reveals the presence of a bearish hanging man candlestick pattern. However, it is noteworthy that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55.80, implying a neutral position that neither indicates oversold nor overbought conditions. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator value of 0.284 suggests a bullish trend, supporting a favorable outlook.
A notable observation is the convergence of all moving averages (MA) at a singular point. This pattern often signals a potential shift in trend or a phase of consolidation in the market. Such convergence may signify market indecision, with equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Depending on various factors such as the positions of short-term and long-term moving averages, this signal may hint at an impending breakout in the market. Traders are advised to seek confirmation from price action or additional indicators before making substantial decisions.
Conclusion
Alibaba's Q2 2024 earnings report underscores the challenges the company faces in a rapidly evolving and competitive market. While the company's international and cloud segments show promise, the core e-commerce business in China continues to grapple with significant obstacles. CEO Eddie Wu’s efforts to stabilize and revitalize this segment will be critical to Alibaba’s future performance, particularly as the company navigates through its ongoing transformation.
Investors will be keen to see how Alibaba’s strategic shifts play out over the coming quarters, particularly in light of the intense competition and economic uncertainty that continue to cloud the Chinese market.
Alibaba Group Downtrend Line Rejection At $81.30 15.08.2024Apply risk management
Risk Warning: Trading in CFDs is highly speculative and carries a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all of your invested capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you fully understand the risks taking into consideration your investment objectives, level of experience, personal circumstances as well as personal resources. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please refer to our Risk Disclosure.
BDSwiss is a trading name of BDS Markets and BDS Ltd.
BDS Markets is a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Mauritius and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius ( FSC ) under license number C116016172, address: 6th Floor, Tower 1, Nexteracom Building 72201 Ebene.
BDS Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under license number SD047, address: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Payment transactions are managed by BDS Markets (Registration number: 143350)
Disclaimer
Alibaba Group (BABA) Stock Reaches Over Two-Month HighAlibaba Group (BABA) Stock Reaches Over Two-Month High
As shown on the BABA stock chart, the price today has risen to around $80.80—its highest level this summer.
The primary driver of bullish sentiment is the anticipation of a positive earnings report from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd for Q2 2024, set to be released on 15th August.
According to Dow Jones Newswires:
→ Lazada, a subsidiary of Alibaba Group, has reached a certain level of profitability, which is a promising sign for the tech giant as it seeks to boost international sales amid slowing growth in China.
→ Alibaba’s market share has stabilised after a decline in 2021. DBS analysts Sachin Mittal and Andy Yeo note that the Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of goods sold on Taobao and Tmall has returned to double-digit growth, and Alibaba’s international e-commerce platforms could become a key driver, with an estimated compound annual growth rate of 23% from FY2024 to FY2027. DBS maintains its buy recommendation for Alibaba shares.
Technical analysis of the Alibaba (BABA) stock chart shows that:
→ The price is forming an ascending channel (shown in blue) and has already risen to its median line. However, it remains under pressure from a descending trendline that has been in place since 2023.
→ The chart shows patterns of false breakouts (marked with arrows) of previous local highs. It’s possible that a similar pattern (with a return below the psychological level of $80.00) could occur before the report is released.
Be prepared for sharp movements in Alibaba Group (BABA) stock around the time of the report’s publication. It could either meet bullish expectations or deliver a bearish surprise.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
$BABA volatility pricing skew on CALL side before earningsThe high vertical CALL pricing skew on the options chain shows that the CALL options for the September expiration are already much more expensive than the PUT options at the same expected move distance. This suggests that market participants are pricing in an upward move.
Let's take a closer look at the probability curve formed by the options chain. I'm very curious to see whether the 8/8 to +1/8 quadrant line will hold the price for BABA, or if it will continue to surge into the Upper Extreme quadrant, heading towards +4/8 until $100.
If everything stays the same, something like this could be an interesting lottery ticket for me. I'm thinking about an OTM call butterfly with a short expiration before earnings.
I have to admit, I’m not a big fan of risking on this red/black roulette type of play, but if things stay as they are, I might consider combining it with a 40 or 68DTE credit put ratio below and the call butterfly above before earnings.
But we'll see how things look on the day before earnings!
$BABA | Allocation & Watchlist | Market Exec & Buy Stops |Technical Confluences:
- Price action has been consolidating between a Wedge pattern
- Price action is at a Demand Zone of all-time lows
- Price is starting to slowly break above the 200MA
- A break above the resistance trendline (been a good support/resistance TL) would be a significant move.
Fundamental Confluences:
- Considerably cheap valuations
- Still one of the largest e-commerce players, don't see it dropping it off anytime soon
- China's economy has been weakening and we are seeing efforts by the China government to help boost back the domestic economy. Potential for revenue boost.
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Putting in my first tranche of NYSE:BABA allocation for my Long-Term portfolio.
Gonna be holding this share for years and will continue adding position with Buy Stop orders.
Remember, DYOR.
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Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated!
If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies.
If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D
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Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
Baba Batting SceneLevel of confidence for this simulation is below 31% but it could go up in case intriguing hits and inflections happen near the dots. Overall my points of interest are the potential numbered inflection points. Time stamp and or price level would suffice regardless of the deviations, but in order to consider any of these setups as potent or viable or to have a decent amount of probable mathematical advantage, we first need to see how we get there and how it looks when it lands in any of the potential setups.
Also, there should be some interest in the potential big blue zone of influence but as mentioned, I am more interested to see if Baba bats and hits the dots and sends it on the developed path or at least on one wave out of all of them.
Anti Bat Bearish Harmonic Pattern on BABA🔍 Overview:
I've identified an Anti Bat bearish harmonic pattern on BABA stock, and it's looking promising for a short trade on the 3-hour chart! 📉
📉 Chart Analysis:
1️⃣ The Anti Bat pattern suggests a potential downward move, with resistance around the $78.13 level.
2️⃣ If we hit $78.13, a Shark bearish pattern also begins, providing additional confirmation for the bearish sentiment. 📈
🎯 Trade Setup:
Anti Bat Pattern:
Target 1: $77.91 💰
Target 2: $73.73 💸
SL: $81.55
Shark Pattern (if $78.13 is hit):
Target 1: $76.02
Target 2: $72.22
📝 Why I'm Interested:
The combination of the Anti Bat and potential Shark patterns strengthens the bearish outlook. 📊📉 These patterns often signal high-probability reversals, and with the confirmation of the Shark pattern, this trade setup becomes even more compelling.
📅 Timeframe: Watching this setup on a 3-hour chart, so keep an eye on shorter-term price movements for the best entries and exits. ⏳
🔔 Stay Updated: Be ready to adapt your strategy as the price action unfolds. Let's get it! 🤑💪🏻
#BABA #AntiBatPattern #SharkPattern #HarmonicPatterns #Trading #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradeTalkFarsi 📉🐻
5/13/24 - $baba - small buyer into tmr's AM print5/13/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:BABA - on almost every metric this thing remains cheap. you and i both know this. that seems to be beside the issue and it's more a function of the $AMEX:KWEB-style flows here more than anything. realistically, there's a lot of optionality in the model too that can be communicated that skews more +ve than -ve. they have a bunch of businesses that can be spun/ or valued separately. i equally believe anyone that's recently been accumulating NYSE:BABA is (*not) going to monetize the whole stake on a beat and probably adds to it in a "miss" (whatever that even means at this pt given the valuation and low expectations). therefore the bias remains to the upside here in the print and i'd look to enter here sub $80 on a miss - but realistically i might take a small punt to the upside and look to capture the continued move higher should the nasdaq remain bid thru the close.
eyeballing the potential up/downside moves here of +10 vs. -10 they look quite balanced. and again i think the balance of chart strength + low expectations probably keep this thing skewing the expected value up... vs. down into print.
BABAIt is an open secret that a lot of traders/ investors consider BABA as an exceptional long-term opportunity. They note that BABA is substantially undervalued.
This is my second attempt to buy and hold this stock. The first attempt was a break-even trade, this one looks promising - H1 inverse head and shoulders.
