$BABA - It all depends on ER tomorrow morningNYSE:BABA Alibaba is reporting tomorrow morning. It's make or break for the cup and handle pattern. A full measured move for the cup and handle breakout is $87.
Targets:
$84
$87
$90
Support:
$77
BABAC trade ideas
Alibaba Group (BABA) Stock Reaches Over Two-Month HighAlibaba Group (BABA) Stock Reaches Over Two-Month High
As shown on the BABA stock chart, the price today has risen to around $80.80—its highest level this summer.
The primary driver of bullish sentiment is the anticipation of a positive earnings report from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd for Q2 2024, set to be released on 15th August.
According to Dow Jones Newswires:
→ Lazada, a subsidiary of Alibaba Group, has reached a certain level of profitability, which is a promising sign for the tech giant as it seeks to boost international sales amid slowing growth in China.
→ Alibaba’s market share has stabilised after a decline in 2021. DBS analysts Sachin Mittal and Andy Yeo note that the Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of goods sold on Taobao and Tmall has returned to double-digit growth, and Alibaba’s international e-commerce platforms could become a key driver, with an estimated compound annual growth rate of 23% from FY2024 to FY2027. DBS maintains its buy recommendation for Alibaba shares.
Technical analysis of the Alibaba (BABA) stock chart shows that:
→ The price is forming an ascending channel (shown in blue) and has already risen to its median line. However, it remains under pressure from a descending trendline that has been in place since 2023.
→ The chart shows patterns of false breakouts (marked with arrows) of previous local highs. It’s possible that a similar pattern (with a return below the psychological level of $80.00) could occur before the report is released.
Be prepared for sharp movements in Alibaba Group (BABA) stock around the time of the report’s publication. It could either meet bullish expectations or deliver a bearish surprise.
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#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - alibaba #4Good Day and I hope you are well. A quick one on #baba again
Alibaba
Quote from last post:
" The stock found it's bottom and points upwards. Many tails around the 68/70 area below and big bull bars now appearing. The monthly 20ema will most likely be hit soon, where I expect a pull-back to then break above to the 100$ level again. China is printing again and from a technical perspective the stock has seen the worst days IMO. Can see 120 over the next 6-12 months again. Where you put your stop? Probably 80 or you want to hold for longer term and scale in lower. "
comment: The stock did almost exactly what I said it would. Last trade was good for 5$ or 6%. Market also turned 2$ above the monthly 20ema. So what is next? The two legged correction I have drawn is from 2024-05-14 and currently is going a bit deeper than expected but still valid. Market has to stay above 67 to make a higher low. Which would be a great entry for longs, once it turns again. I have drawn the bear channel on the daily chart, because the bear channel needs to be broken before you think about longs on this one. Could happen next week or the week after. Selling below 70/75 is bad any way you put it. Market just made a strong move again and another will likely follow. Bears are in their third push down and could see a two legged correction soon again, if not a major trend reversal for 100.
current market cycle: trading range at the lows
key levels: 63 - 120
bull case: Bulls want to break above 18500 to retest the other bear trend lines above.
Bull Invalidation is below 67.
Bear Invalidation is above 77.
short term: Neutral until bear channel is broken and bullish above 76 for 85 or higher again.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged
current swing trade: No big move caught. Will look for follow through selling on Monday and would swing a position then.
Chart update: Adjusted bear wave series to match the current sideways movement.
$BABA volatility pricing skew on CALL side before earningsThe high vertical CALL pricing skew on the options chain shows that the CALL options for the September expiration are already much more expensive than the PUT options at the same expected move distance. This suggests that market participants are pricing in an upward move.
Let's take a closer look at the probability curve formed by the options chain. I'm very curious to see whether the 8/8 to +1/8 quadrant line will hold the price for BABA, or if it will continue to surge into the Upper Extreme quadrant, heading towards +4/8 until $100.
If everything stays the same, something like this could be an interesting lottery ticket for me. I'm thinking about an OTM call butterfly with a short expiration before earnings.
I have to admit, I’m not a big fan of risking on this red/black roulette type of play, but if things stay as they are, I might consider combining it with a 40 or 68DTE credit put ratio below and the call butterfly above before earnings.
But we'll see how things look on the day before earnings!
$BABA | Allocation & Watchlist | Market Exec & Buy Stops |Technical Confluences:
- Price action has been consolidating between a Wedge pattern
- Price action is at a Demand Zone of all-time lows
- Price is starting to slowly break above the 200MA
- A break above the resistance trendline (been a good support/resistance TL) would be a significant move.
Fundamental Confluences:
- Considerably cheap valuations
- Still one of the largest e-commerce players, don't see it dropping it off anytime soon
- China's economy has been weakening and we are seeing efforts by the China government to help boost back the domestic economy. Potential for revenue boost.
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Putting in my first tranche of NYSE:BABA allocation for my Long-Term portfolio.
Gonna be holding this share for years and will continue adding position with Buy Stop orders.
Remember, DYOR.
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Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated!
If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies.
If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D
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Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
Baba Batting SceneLevel of confidence for this simulation is below 31% but it could go up in case intriguing hits and inflections happen near the dots. Overall my points of interest are the potential numbered inflection points. Time stamp and or price level would suffice regardless of the deviations, but in order to consider any of these setups as potent or viable or to have a decent amount of probable mathematical advantage, we first need to see how we get there and how it looks when it lands in any of the potential setups.
Also, there should be some interest in the potential big blue zone of influence but as mentioned, I am more interested to see if Baba bats and hits the dots and sends it on the developed path or at least on one wave out of all of them.
Anti Bat Bearish Harmonic Pattern on BABA🔍 Overview:
I've identified an Anti Bat bearish harmonic pattern on BABA stock, and it's looking promising for a short trade on the 3-hour chart! 📉
📉 Chart Analysis:
1️⃣ The Anti Bat pattern suggests a potential downward move, with resistance around the $78.13 level.
2️⃣ If we hit $78.13, a Shark bearish pattern also begins, providing additional confirmation for the bearish sentiment. 📈
🎯 Trade Setup:
Anti Bat Pattern:
Target 1: $77.91 💰
Target 2: $73.73 💸
SL: $81.55
Shark Pattern (if $78.13 is hit):
Target 1: $76.02
Target 2: $72.22
📝 Why I'm Interested:
The combination of the Anti Bat and potential Shark patterns strengthens the bearish outlook. 📊📉 These patterns often signal high-probability reversals, and with the confirmation of the Shark pattern, this trade setup becomes even more compelling.
📅 Timeframe: Watching this setup on a 3-hour chart, so keep an eye on shorter-term price movements for the best entries and exits. ⏳
🔔 Stay Updated: Be ready to adapt your strategy as the price action unfolds. Let's get it! 🤑💪🏻
#BABA #AntiBatPattern #SharkPattern #HarmonicPatterns #Trading #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradeTalkFarsi 📉🐻
5/13/24 - $baba - small buyer into tmr's AM print5/13/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:BABA - on almost every metric this thing remains cheap. you and i both know this. that seems to be beside the issue and it's more a function of the $AMEX:KWEB-style flows here more than anything. realistically, there's a lot of optionality in the model too that can be communicated that skews more +ve than -ve. they have a bunch of businesses that can be spun/ or valued separately. i equally believe anyone that's recently been accumulating NYSE:BABA is (*not) going to monetize the whole stake on a beat and probably adds to it in a "miss" (whatever that even means at this pt given the valuation and low expectations). therefore the bias remains to the upside here in the print and i'd look to enter here sub $80 on a miss - but realistically i might take a small punt to the upside and look to capture the continued move higher should the nasdaq remain bid thru the close.
eyeballing the potential up/downside moves here of +10 vs. -10 they look quite balanced. and again i think the balance of chart strength + low expectations probably keep this thing skewing the expected value up... vs. down into print.
BABAIt is an open secret that a lot of traders/ investors consider BABA as an exceptional long-term opportunity. They note that BABA is substantially undervalued.
This is my second attempt to buy and hold this stock. The first attempt was a break-even trade, this one looks promising - H1 inverse head and shoulders.
