BMA trade ideas
Shit hitting fan in April? Argentina default? Dollar volatilityHyperwave phase 7 down to pahase 1 baseline. Coiling up to a SHTF drop in flash crash in end of march or start of april? So many Hyperwaves is in phase 4 almost on top targets. Oil is at downward resistance and T yields is at key retracements. Indexes are at top of megaphone pattern. Many monthly TD sequential nines this month and next. So many calls expire in march.
Are we in for a flash crash? What will be the news? The black swan? The trigger? Vaccine resistant covid? Political event? Bitcoin crash and Tesla pull down?
BMA: Aiming towawrds its next short-term resistanceThe chart analyses the current trend of BMA (Banco Macro SA), taking into account MACD, Stoch RSI, and Momentum. The stock is thriving to reach to its next price milestone around ARS 256. As noticed by the green circles, the stock tried to set a new baseline on this value: May 12, March 05, and December 19 of 2019, and today July 13. However, indicators show more potential this time, as volume is increasing steadily, RSI though high has not yet reached 100/100; MACD has not yet reached 3.560, as it is currently at 2.600; and Momentum is almost at its resistance of 18.200.
I'd suggest waiting until prices get to about ARS 255, and re-evaluate the situation: mind that prices right now are highly volatile and related to the news about sovereign debt.
AR:BMA Strategy for July 07 and July 08The chart analyses short-term pricing after comparing a 21 EMA bullish trend, 30/50 RSI values, and MACD trends immediately before changing its convergence to overselling, considering moderate volume. These conditions were met seven times between 2016 and 2020, with an average of 15,57% increase in stock price within a span of 9 days on average. In the current case, the starting point is set on 30 June ($198) and ending July 8, before Argentina's Independence Day (July 9 and 10 are free days).
I'd suggest selling immediately after the market opens on July 07 (and rebuying when price reaches around $228 on July 08). The current price ($238) could be a consider a resistance, as prices have dropped from there two times before (see orange circles).
AR:BMA false start before next bullish trendThe chart analyses short-term pricing after comparing a neutral/negative 200 EMA trend, 10/20 RSI values, and MACD trends immediately before changing its convergence to overselling, considering very low volumes. There were two times before in which these conditions were met: from March 08 to March 15 2019, and November 19 to November 27 of 2019. In both cases, in a span of 8 days from the lowest RSI to around RSI 80, the prices went up 10,60%, displaying moderate volatility. The point is maneuvering buy/sell before this 8-day cycle ends, and to be sure of having re-bought the stocks before the actual bullish trend begins in the 8th day. The price limit should be determined by EMA 200 and various contacts around $218. I'd suggest buying when market opens, sell when reaching these price, and buy again when prices decreasing to $207 (-5%, same as precedents show.)
Considering this precedents, then that this week is a short one in Argentina (07-09 and 07-10 are free days), and that negotiations with creditors are restarting again, this prices will be reached July 07; I don't think investors would like to keep the stocks considering that between 07-08 and 07-13 can happen a lot of things Argentinian debt.
BMA - MacroBanco Macro en búsqueda de los $220 luego de recuperar la caída producida por la posible vinculación con el dueno del banco. rompiendo al alza la barrera de los 200$ habilita ir a buscar la resistencia en los $220 donde existe resistencia importante.
MACD semanal en senal de venta. (nunca considerar como recomendación de compra/venta de activos)
Seguinos en Twitter y YouTube para más análisis.
BMA: Holding longsThe trend is very strong in the monthly timeframe. Every single signal has worked, telling us before hand what the market would do, with actionable setups and extremely perfect accuracy. BMA is a good performer, with still a modest valuation, and expected to deliver in the coming months, specially if the government's infrastructure plans pan out favorably, since they are going to benefit from it, being the largest bank outside of Buenos Aires. You can read more about it here: xbma.org
The daily chart offers a good low risk entry here, in case you missed it at lower levels. I'll add the ADR chart in the comments.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
