CRMD trade ideas
CRM - 2 Bullish Trade IdeasCRM acquired Tableau today and price dropped -4%. Patiently waiting for price to drop to $148.5 to enter two long trade positions. A tight stop loss just below the recent low makes for risk rewards of 6:1 and 11:1. I like the business industry, the product, and the team. The acquisition today was all stock, and Tableau will add around 2.5% ($400M) to their total annual revenue.
CRM with earnings on play for 06/05/2019 trading sessionHello everyone CRM releasing earnings beats expectations but disappointments regarding the guidance could lead to a fade. Price got to 157sh, 100sMA area and 154sh, 20eMA area in after-hours session.
There is a beautiful bullish wedge holding nicely on 13eMA 10min that is waiting to pop. Curious to see how today's after-hours session will close.
For tomorrow trading session if at the opening at least 50k volumes will be already traded and if the pattern will not change I will long:
1) above 157.33 if price will consolidate in pm above the 20eMA and will break the 100sMA at the open. Caution for the very first minutes, moment in which price still didn't really trace a clear trend.
2) In case of price consolidation above 100sMA level only after the first 15 minutes I will trade the breakout of new level of resistance.
3) In both type of scenario for me to enter the trade uprising volumes has to come in breaking the avg volume of the first 3 minutes. Thus RVOL (relative volume) has to be at least above 2.
Also if at the opening at least 50k volumes will be already traded and if the pattern will not change I will short:
1) the eventual pm main low level of support if price will fade below the 20eMA,
2) below 154.66 (20eMA) if price fill fade below 100sMA
3) below 157.33 (100sMA) if price will fail the breakout.
4) In any type of scenario for me to enter the trade uprising red volumes has to come in breaking the avg volume of the first 3 minutes. Thus RVOL (relative volume) has to be at least above 2.
Have a good trading session!
CRM Headed HigherPerfect bull flag. Target #1 - $172 Target #2 - $183. However, I'll exit regardless prior to earnings or if there is a reason to sell such as a breakdown. I am long. While I believe this is a great entry point, if not already long, I urge you to do your own research, I do not give investment advise.
$CRM EARNINGS BETTER BE A BLOWOUT TO AVOID MORE DOWNSIDE. Once the piggy bank stock where you investment was safe has turned a little weaker in recent weeks. The tech massacre has affected the high valuation names in particular and NYSE:CRM certainly fits into that category with a high p/e ratio of 100. The chart is getting increasing weak with indicators all bearish, as is the volume, with high volume on down days which is extremely bearish. On the downside $134 seems like a possible target BUT 3 TREND LINES BELOW COULD GIVE SUPPORT.
AVERAGE ANALYSTS PRICE TARGET $182
AVERAGE ANALYSTS RECOMMENDATION BUY
CRM: One of the most crowded stocks...I'm thinking $CRM will take a big hit here. The anti trust news might be the catalyst crowded big tech names need to drop big time. I'm keen on going long undervalued companies after a sentiment reset, but we might not go anywhere before presidential elections.
Since the market is likely to remain sideways for now, I'll be trying to find both good short trades as well as valid long ones in my stocks account.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
THE WEEK AHEAD: CRM EARNINGS; QQQ, IWM, XOP, TBT, AAPL, TSLAEARNINGS
CRM (57/42) releases earnings on Tuesday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Tuesday's New York session.
Pictured here is an iron condor in the July monthly with the short options nearest the 20 delta strikes. Preliminarily, it's paying 1.61 at the mid price with break evens wide of the expected move at 133.40/171.60 with delta/theta metrics of -.89/2.27.
As of Friday close, the June 7th weekly to July 19th monthly volatility contraction is from 61.8% to 39.0% or about 41.5%.
Look to manage intratrade by rolling the untested side toward current price on approaching worthless with a 50% max take profit target.
BROAD MARKET
EEM (38/21)
QQQ (36/23)
IWM (36/22)
SPY (37/19)
EFA (29/17)
The EEM July 19th 37/41/41/45 iron fly is paying just shy of 25% of the width of the longs (8-wide) at 1.99 and break evens of 39.01/42.99. Look to take profit at 25% max, as you would with a short straddle.
QQQ is paying slightly more than one-third the width of the wings for the short option strikes nearest the 20's -- the 158/161/185/188: 1.01 credit, break evens at 159.99/186.01, delta/theta metrics of -2.66/1.49. Manage intratrade by rolling in untested on approaching worthless toward current price; 50% max take profit.
The IWM iron condor nearest the 20 delta is the July 19th 133/136/154/157, with break evens of 135.01/164.99, delta/theta metrics of -3.27/1.43. 50% max take profit. Manage intratrade by rolling in untested on approaching worthless toward current price; 50% max take profit.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Top 5 By Rank: TLT (65/13); USO (58/48); TBT (58/27); OIH (54/42); GDXJ (51/29).
The volatility in oil isn't a particular surprise. /CL (21/46) has been crushed from a late April high of 66.44 to a Friday session low of 53.05, leading to an OVX pop from the mid-20's to a Friday session high of 47.49, so it's an opportunity to sell premium in /CL, USO, or one of the closely correlated proxies like XOP (43/39).
TBT is at a 52-week low; TLT, a similar high with the yield on the 10-year T note yield cratering to finish last week at 2.142, so I could envision putting on a bullish assumption play in TBT either on the notion that we get some risk on post-May sell-off or that yield has bottomed in this vicinity (between 2.00-2.25).
A bullish assumption TBT short put in the July cycle at the 28 strike isn't paying a ton -- .43 at the mid, with a 27.57 break even and delta/theta metrics of 25.35/.85, but the more aggressive 29 pays .73 with a 28.27 break even and delta/theta metrics of 38.97/.96.
SINGLE NAME WITH EARNINGS IN THE REAR VIEW
X (66/61): The July 19th 12 straddle is paying 2.00, 10.00/14.00 break evens, and a delta/theta metric of -2.66/1.99.
AAPL (51/33): The July 19th nearest the 20 delta iron condor, the 155/160/190/195 is paying 1.67 with 158.33/191.67 break evens, and a delta/theta metric of -1.88/2.05.
TSLA (51/73): Some of the volatility leaked out last week, but the nearest the 20 -- the 140/145/215/220 appears to be paying 1.92 at the mid, assuming you can get filled there, with markets showing wide ... .
$CRM Salesforce is running out of buyers, cash in your chips.The cloud kings have lost their Mojo, investors are starting to look to secure investments, high dividends, utilities,communications and REITs. The smart money is coming to terms with the massive run some of these cloud kings have had and their P/E ratios. Even the chip stocks and semi's offer a much better P/E ratio and provide the actual infrastructure for the data centers. We think its time to take the money of the table in CRM as all indicators are pointing to decline.
