HDD trade ideas
$HD weekly chart ABCD harmonic. Post-hurricane idea.NYSE:HD
NYSE:HD , NYSE:LOW , and NYSE:WMT tend to perform well following natural disasters.
Here I have a nice ABCD harmonic setup taking us to 442.05 (1.618). We are currently trading @ 411. This is a 7.45% implied move higher.
Once we arrive to the pattern completion @ 442.05, I'll reevaluate, reduce long exposure, and assess a short setup for a standard retracement following the harmonic pattern completion.
Example of Theta Crush??bought 11 $430 call contracts at the beginning of the week in anticipation of upcoming earnings and out of nowhere a bunch of news comes out to negatively affect Home Depot?? Hurricane, dockworker strike, looting on the east coast, and now the Feds say they have no money to help Hurricane Victims??? HD has not moved this much all week. and now it moves in the exact opposite direction of where my contracts are set to expire?? crazy coincidence?? although my contracts expire worthless today I still have a price target of $500
HOME DEPOT Consolidation then rally until end of the year.Home Depot (HD) hit our $415.00 long-term Target as called on our previous analysis 5 months ago (April 24, see chart below):
It doesn't show however any signs at all of stopping here as the Channel Up has still significant upside potential before it prices a Higher High on its top. Being on its 2nd Bullish Leg and approaching the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, it is possible to see a minor short-term pull-back and then a more structured rise until the end of the year.
This is at least the pattern that the 1st Bullish Leg of the Channel Up followed and is that helped us pursue the previous ($415) target in the first place. The 1W MACD also shows the strong similarities between the two Bullish Legs.
As a result, our new long-term Target is $460.00 (marginally below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension).
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Home Depot (HD) potential Buy setupReasons for bullish bias:
- Price is at a strong support
- Safe Entry at LH breakout (DOW)
- Fib golden zone
- Bullish divergence
Here are the recommended trading levels:
Entry Level(Buy Stop): 351.00
Stop Loss Level: 319.53
Take Profit Level 1: 382.47
Take Profit Level 2: Open
HD - Reaccumulation and Potential Bullish BreakoutHome Depot’s current price action is unfolding within a classic Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern, which suggests the stock is positioning for a significant bullish continuation. The chart clearly outlines key subphases, each of which plays a crucial role in confirming the reaccumulation process.
Preliminary Support (PS):
The reaccumulation process begins with Preliminary Support, where initial buying interest starts to absorb the selling pressure, effectively halting the downtrend. This phase signals that stronger hands are beginning to accumulate shares, laying the foundation for the trading range.
Buying Climax (BCLMX):
Following the Preliminary Support, the Buying Climax occurs as the stock experiences a surge in buying pressure. This phase pushes prices up temporarily, establishing the upper boundary of the trading range. The Buying Climax is significant as it demonstrates that demand is starting to outpace supply, though the market remains within a consolidation phase.
Automatic Reaction (AR):
After the Buying Climax, the Automatic Reaction takes place, where the price retraces from its recent highs and defines the lower boundary of the trading range. This move represents a pullback that tests the strength of the buying interest at lower levels, confirming the establishment of the range within which the reaccumulation will occur.
Secondary Test (ST):
The price then enters the Secondary Test phase, during which it revisits the lower boundary established by the Automatic Reaction. This phase is crucial for confirming the strength of the support level at the bottom of the range. The lower volume during this phase suggests that selling pressure is weakening, reinforcing the bullish potential as the stock continues to accumulate within the defined range.
Spring:
The Spring phase represents a deliberate shakeout below the lower boundary of the trading range. This move temporarily breaks support, triggering a stop-loss run and shaking out weaker hands, including those who are bearish. The quick recovery after the Spring indicates that stronger hands are absorbing the shares at these lower prices, preparing for an upward move.
Test:
Following the Spring, the price typically retests the area just above the previous support. This Test phase is essential to confirm that the market has successfully absorbed any remaining supply, and that the price is ready to move higher.
Creek and Jump Across the Creek (JAC):
The "Creek" is a metaphorical resistance line that develops during the reaccumulation phase, representing the gradual rise in price over time, often with a slightly downward slant. It is where the price encounters consistent selling pressure that prevents it from breaking out. The Jump Across the Creek (JAC) occurs when the price finally breaks above this resistance line, signaling that the reaccumulation phase is nearing completion and that the market is ready to advance into a new uptrend.
Sign of Strength (SOS):
The Sign of Strength is the final confirmation of the reaccumulation process. This phase is marked by a decisive breakout above the trading range, supported by increased volume, which confirms that demand is now significantly outpacing supply. This breakout indicates that the stock is ready to transition into a new bullish phase, with the potential for significant upside.
Volume Analysis:
PS and BCLMX: Higher volume during these phases indicates strong buying interest as accumulation begins. The Buying Climax, in particular, is accompanied by a volume surge, reflecting significant demand.
AR and ST: Diminishing volume during the Automatic Reaction and Secondary Test suggests that selling pressure is being absorbed, confirming the integrity of the lower boundary of the trading range.
Spring and Test: A spike in volume during the Spring phase confirms the shakeout, while the Test phase shows that remaining supply has been absorbed, setting the stage for a bullish move.
Creek and JAC: As the price navigates the Creek, volume typically remains moderate until the breakout occurs during the Jump Across the Creek. This breakout is confirmed by increased volume, indicating strong buying interest.
SOS: The Sign of Strength is accompanied by a significant volume increase, validating the breakout and confirming that the stock is ready for a new uptrend.
Home Depot Set to Report Q2 Earnings Today: What to ExpectHome Depot (NYSE: NYSE:HD ), the largest home improvement retailer in the U.S., is set to report its Q2 2024 earnings on Tuesday, with analysts projecting slight declines in revenue and profit compared to the same period last year. With inflation impacting consumer spending, particularly on big-ticket home improvement projects, Home Depot (NYSE: NYSE:HD )is expected to see a modest dip in its financial performance. However, there are several key factors that investors should watch closely, which could influence the company's future outlook.
Earnings Expectations Amid Market Challenges
Analysts predict that Home Depot (NYSE: NYSE:HD ) will report $42.57 billion in revenue for the second quarter, a slight decrease from the $42.92 billion recorded in the same quarter of fiscal 2023. Similarly, net income is expected to fall to $4.48 billion, down from $4.66 billion a year ago. These declines reflect the broader economic environment, where inflation-weary consumers have cut back on discretionary spending, including home improvement projects.
Despite these challenges, Home Depot (NYSE: NYSE:HD ) has managed to maintain its position in the market. The company's ability to navigate a complex economic landscape, while still delivering solid financial results, underscores its resilience. However, the expected declines highlight the pressures that even industry giants face in the current environment.
SRS Distribution Acquisition
One of the most significant developments in Home Depot's recent history is its acquisition of SRS Distribution, a specialty distributor serving professional contractors in sectors such as roofing and pool markets. The $18.25 billion deal, which closed in June, is seen as a strategic move to bolster Home Depot's market share among professional contractors. This segment of the market is particularly important as big-ticket consumer spending slows.
By integrating SRS Distribution into its existing operations, Home Depot (NYSE: NYSE:HD ) aims to enhance its Pro sales ecosystem, providing a broader range of services to contractors. This acquisition not only increases Home Depot's market share but also positions the company to better weather the current economic challenges by focusing on a segment less affected by consumer spending fluctuations.
Technical Outlook
Home Depot stock (NYSE: NYSE:HD ) has exhibited mixed signals leading up to its Q2 earnings report. At the present time, it is trading at approximately $345.64 as of Monday, situating the stock below its five-, 20-, and 50-day exponential moving averages, indicating a strongly bearish trend. Nonetheless, indications of potential recovery have emerged. Notably, the stock price has exceeded both the 50-day SMA of $347.69 and the 200-day SMA of $344.19, signifying some underlying bullish potential. The stock has risen by 2.13% in Tuesday's premarket trading, marking a fresh start.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed at 44.58 on Monday, signifying a sign of recovery.
Technical indicators, such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), also suggest potential stabilization or recovery. The MACD indicator at 0.05 signals a buy, while the RSI of 44.53 indicates oversold stock. Additionally, the Bollinger Bands depict substantial buying pressure near the lower band, further reinforcing the potential for recovery.
Analysts' Outlook: Potential for Upside
Despite the current bearish trends, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Home Depot's future. The consensus analyst rating on Home Depot stock stands at a Buy, with an average price target of $377.56, implying an 11.02% upside potential. Recent ratings from firms like Telsey Advisory Group, JP Morgan, and Truist Securities support this view, suggesting that Home Depot could see its stock price rise to around $385.33.
Conclusion
As Home Depot (NYSE: NYSE:HD ) prepares to release its Q2 2024 earnings, the company faces a challenging market environment characterized by inflation and reduced consumer spending. However, its strategic acquisition of SRS Distribution and focus on the professional contractor market provide a solid foundation for future growth. While the stock currently shows mixed signals, analysts believe there is potential for an upside, making Home Depot a company to watch closely in the coming months. Investors should pay attention to the earnings report and any guidance provided, as these will offer valuable insights into how Home Depot (NYSE: NYSE:HD ) plans to navigate the rest of the fiscal year.
Stock Earnings Watch: August 12th - 13thInvestors, mark your calendars! A few notable companies are set to report their quarterly results on Monday and Tuesday. Let’s take a closer look at what’s expected:
Monday, August 12th
Rumble (RUM 📹)
The video-sharing platform is expected to post an EPS of -0.15 and revenue of 19.69M. With a beat rate of 42%, investors will be watching closely to see if Rumble can outperform expectations. Last year, they reported an EPS of -0.15 and revenue of 24.97M.
TeraWulf (WULF 🐺)
TeraWulf, involved in cryptocurrency mining, is set to announce an EPS of -0.01 and revenue of 35.43M. The company has a beat rate of 40%, so it will be interesting to see if they can manage a surprise. Last year, they posted an EPS of -0.08 and revenue of 15.45M.
Tuesday, August 13th
Home Depot (HD 🏡)
The home improvement giant is anticipated to report an EPS of 4.50 and revenue of 43.37B. With a stellar beat rate of 95%, will Home Depot continue to deliver strong results? Last year, they reported an EPS of 4.65 and revenue of 42.91B.
🔍 As these companies reveal their financial health, it's crucial to pay attention not just to the numbers but to the broader implications for their industries and the economy as a whole. Stay tuned and keep your portfolios ready for any market-moving surprises!
#EarningsSeason #StockMarket #InvestmentInsights
8/12/24 - $hd - Limited upside at $345. watching only8/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:HD
Limited upside at $345. watching only
- we've seen the housing starts linger
- rate cuts probably need 3-6 mo to drive inflection on build capex
- HD remains excellent biz, but at nearly 27x PE (when you adj. for net debt), and flat EPS that's a tough one for me to stomach.
- feels like this is sticky valuation for the fact that it's such a large cap and being supported by passive flows
- "feels" to me like a good result gets trimmed/ right sized lower (by institutions) and a bad result is a tough one to buy esp w the macro backdrop.
- at 4.5% fcf yield even with zero growth this looks better than cash (but honestly there's a lot of stuff that's large cap that does) which means the downside is probably not one of these wicked drawdowns we've been seeing on the sub $1 bn cap stuff.
- i'd be interested in dip buy/ swing on a big enough drawdown or bad CC speech or w/e.
- just don't see the upside r/r playing this to the long side into print
gl to the holders. lmk if u see it differently.
V
Home Depot (NYSE:HU) UptrendLine Rejection At $341.53 12.08.2024Apply risk management
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Disclaimer
HD in weekly chart (Update)Hello
Nothing changed from may last published idea about HD and I just want to share a bigger scale of my view. These days index charts are more complicated. For example in Nasdaq some symbols (AI based technologies for example) are unpredictably rising and this happens in the opposite direction of others and they are making a large over buy zone that is so much powerful. In my opinion HD might continue more for its deeper corrections before start a huge rally as wave (3) Millennium.
Do not forget confirmations.
Thanks
The Home Depot Stock Embarks on Seasonal Bullish TrendThe Home Depot Inc. (HD) stock is entering a seasonal uptrend following the formation of a potential head and shoulders pattern at its recent bottom. This technical formation, often indicative of a reversal, has paved the way for a new bullish impulse, with the current price standing at $359.77.
Our analysis suggests a promising opportunity for a long position as the stock embarks on this upward trajectory. The bullish sentiment is further reinforced by the seasonal patterns historically observed in Home Depot's stock performance during this period. With this backdrop, we are closely monitoring the price action for a retest of the previous demand area at $354.13.
This demand area, which previously provided substantial support, is a critical level to watch. A successful retest and bounce from this zone would validate our bullish outlook and provide a favorable entry point for a long position. The target for this move extends through to September, aligning with the typical seasonal strength observed in Home Depot's stock.
The head and shoulders pattern observed at the bottom is a classic reversal signal, suggesting that the prior downtrend has likely concluded, and a new uptrend is underway. The recent bullish impulse from this pattern adds credence to the potential for continued upward movement.
Investors should consider the broader market environment and Home Depot’s fundamental strengths. As a leading retailer in the home improvement sector, Home Depot benefits from strong consumer demand, especially during the summer months when home improvement projects typically increase. Additionally, any positive economic indicators or consumer confidence data could further bolster the stock’s performance.
In conclusion, with Home Depot stock currently priced at $359.77 and showing signs of a seasonal bullish trend, we are preparing to open a long position on a retest of the $354.13 demand area. This strategy aims to capitalize on the anticipated bullish momentum through September, supported by the head and shoulders reversal pattern and historical seasonal trends. Investors should remain vigilant, keeping an eye on key support and resistance levels to make informed trading decisions.
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