HOG: Earnings play and can be riskyKnow your risk and play accordingly.
HOG May 17th -- 42.5 calls
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HOG trade ideas
Secular trend: Millenials refuse to drive motorbikesHarley Davidson is and has been an iconic American brand for decades. It encapsulated the raw masculinity that distinguished the older generations of baby boomers and before. Today things have changed dramatically. Millenials and the future generations are all about social media, the environment and gender-equality. Having forgotten all the values that the Harley Davidson was built on little interest remains to associate with the brand. The trend of declining revenues has been a constant now for years, but the further we go the more it'll be evident that today's consumers won't own a Harley Davidson NYSE:HOG
Boomers stock / short candidate , Harley heydays to an end?The Analyst
KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brett Andress maintained a Sector Weight rating on Harley-Davidson.
The Thesis
By KeyBanc’s assessment, Harley-Davidson’s international growth continues to slow.
Countries accounting for 70 percent of the global market recorded a 19.2-percent decline in Harley registrations this January, Andress said in a Thursday note. Last year, registrations rose 19.1 percent over the same period.
“While one month does not make a trend, January declines in our monthly reporting countries came in worse than we anticipated, though compares do ease meaningfully in ," the analyst said.
The Asia-Pacific region saw broad-based drops for a second consecutive month, including a high-double-digit decline in India.
Latin America sales moderated — with particular weakness in Brazil — and Western Europe reported softness as the U.K. suffered pressure.
“Flowing monthly trends forward (and assuming sustained trends in quarterly-reporting countries) puts our index in the mid single-digit/high single-digit range for , implying HOG's reported international retail in the low single-digit/mid single-digit range," Andress said.
Harley-Davidson’s next quarterly report is slated for release April 23.
HOG-Looking good for an entryThis educational chart shows HOG may be ready for a long position.
1) There is a double bottom.
2) It is well below the 50, 100 and 200 Averages.
3) It is traversing the Bollinger and departing from the lower boundary.
4) The MACD histogram has transitioned to weakness signaling a buy.
5) The MACD signal is about to cross over and go green.
6) The PSAR is very tight.
7) The drop was due to poor earnings and compounded by the drop in the Dow.
8) The lower Bollinger Band is subtly signaling an uptick that corresponds with an early hook v formation that resulted in a small uptick.
1) Entry is now (46.78)
2) SL is 43.23
3) T1 is 48.67 SL to Break Even
4) T2 is 50.23 SL to 47.00
5) T3 is 52.73 SL to 50
That is my plan. I placed calls on this today. Assess the situation and trade according to your plans. Any actions from this chart are done at your own risk and this is not financial advice.
Harley DavidsonThere is a nice breakout 200MA(strongest one) and also resistance level, making the possible pullback to the 52.00. Also candlesticks look like inverted hammer which supports upper movement. Position to enter after a nice bullish candle with potential target zone 56.00
I will update this one on coming days
-Murod
HOG - $40- $41 Short Rest Of Year!!!Per HOG monthly chart, PA has been in a bearish trend, on chart is 30 % TREND ANGLE line (blue line) in which price should stay above if bullish trend will continue. Also, per fib. retractment indicator 50% level is at $40.00 to $41.00 area. On shorter time frames, will be going short/selling until that area.
This is my opinion.
