sideway channel moving toward res.It could be another blow for the res. Line. Seems like an LS could be the nail in the coffin. OB retrace close.
HWM trade ideas
11/5/24 - $hwm - One to buy on dips, solid biz11/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:HWM
One to buy on dips, solid biz
- tryin' to get ahead of rest of EPS pile today/tmr
- this one reports Wed AM (after we learn which fruit pie won at the county fair)
- i digress
- this thing is such a solid biz. genuinely feel life i've missed "the move", b/c at 2.2-2.5% fcf yield growing HSD-low doubles, and 33x next year PE, there's not too much on the valuation side that's giving me that great R/R
- on the converse, dips will likely be bought hardcore and "space" is a theme not going away and these guys have solid margins, a nice niche (lightweight metal mfg for key parts/ components), no stock based shenanigans like tech bro co's... it's a great biz
- a warren buffett stock, let's say
- so while i'd probably be tempted to buy a dip if say today we dive into the close on a risk-off situation (and it's flows related)... i might just have to sit this one out and wait for more of a macro pullback where the tide dunks all boats for the time being.
- that gap in the 70s would be "obvious" buy. but honestly, if we get there something's probably wrong. i think low 90s is good value and in the 80s is a solid place to get busy with a 1% stake. so setting my alarms accordingly and will monitor for the day, otherwise will report back if/when.
- congrats to the longs
V
BREAKDOWN HIGHLY ANTICIPATED until signs of stabilizing currentThe trend is exhausted. It has stopped moving due to increased price stability. Buyers have slowed, but the pressure of selling hasn't come in quite just yet. There is a divergence between the MACD being bearish and stock bullish, candles also fading, may see a drop of 6-10 points, possibly picking up from 95 range.
Final rush?From looking at the past. Every time $HWM reached its All-time high (ATH). It dropped and consolidate.
Be careful when $HWM reached its ATH again which will happen pretty soon recently.
Better cash out some part of your position or use the put option to protect your investment.
For self-education use only. Not financial advice.
I've got an intriguing chart for you today on $HWM Howmet Aero.I've got an intriguing chart for you today on NYSE:HWM (Howmet Aerospace Inc.).
Here's what we're looking at:
Recent Performance: Check out that spike! What's driving this momentum?
Technical Levels: Are we approaching a breakout, or is this a false dawn?
Earnings Whisper: With earnings around the corner, what are your predictions?
Drop your thoughts, predictions, or any questions below. Let's make this a thread of insights!
Like, comment, and share if you find this analysis helpful. Let's build a community of sharp minds around NYSE:HWM !
#StockMarket #Investing #Aerospace #HWM #TechnicalAnalysis
Howmet Aerospace Surges 15% As it Leads the S&P 500 GainersHowmet Aerospace's stock soared early Tuesday, breaking out as the company reported strong earnings, optimistic guidance, and significant hikes to its dividend and buyback program. The Boeing supplier, known for its engine components and metal parts, posted a 52% increase in earnings to 67 cents per share on an adjusted basis, surpassing FactSet's estimate of 60 cents. Revenue rose 14% to $1.88 billion, topping analyst projections of $1.834 billion.
Robust Earnings and Revenue Growth
The strong financial performance in Q2 was driven by a 27% jump in commercial aerospace revenue, fueled by strong travel demand and an aging aircraft fleet. Howmet Aerospace CEO John Plant highlighted the "extremely high" backlog at aircraft original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) as a key factor, noting that these manufacturers struggle to deliver jets consistently.
Defense aerospace revenue also increased by 11% for the quarter, while commercial transportation revenue saw a slight decline of 4%. In addition to Boeing, Howmet Aerospace supplies to RTX unit Pratt & Whitney and Lockheed Martin's F-35 Lightning II.
Upgraded Outlook and Shareholder Returns
Reflecting its strong quarter, Howmet Aerospace ( NYSE:HWM ) has raised its 2024 adjusted earnings per share guidance to $2.53-$2.57 from the previous $2.31-$2.39. The company now expects 2024 revenue between $7.4 billion and $7.48 billion, up from the prior guidance of $7.225 billion to $7.375 billion. This new outlook surpasses FactSet's earnings forecast of $2.39 per share on $7.32 billion in revenue.
Moreover, Howmet Aerospace ( NYSE:HWM ) increased the midpoint of its 2024 free cash flow guidance by $70 million, to $870 million. For Q3, the company anticipates EPS of 63-65 cents on revenue of $1.845 billion-$1.865 billion, ahead of analyst views of 60 cents EPS and $1.81 billion in sales.
In a significant move to enhance shareholder value, Howmet Aerospace ( NYSE:HWM ) bought back $60 million worth of stock during the quarter and increased its stock repurchase plan by $2 billion, bringing it to $2.487 billion. The company also hiked its quarterly dividend by 60% to 8 cents per share, with the new dividend for Q3 to be paid out on August 26 to shareholders on record as of August 9.
Market Reaction and Future Prospects
Following these announcements, Howmet Aerospace ( NYSE:HWM ) stock surged nearly 15% early Tuesday, achieving a new record high above $90 and leading S&P 500 gainers. The stock has rallied 53% so far this year through Monday's close, reflecting investor confidence in the company's robust performance and future prospects.
Pittsburgh-based Howmet reported net income of $266 million, or 65 cents a share, for the quarter, up from $193 million, or 46 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, adjusted earnings per share came to 67 cents, ahead of the 60-cent FactSet consensus. Sales rose to $1.88 billion from $1.648 billion, also surpassing the $1.834 billion FactSet consensus.
CEO John Plant remains optimistic about the future, stating, "The outlook for commercial aerospace continues to be robust, with strong travel demand and an aging aircraft fleet, leading to an extremely high backlog at the aircraft OEMs." He acknowledged challenges in the consistent delivery of aircraft but emphasized that the company has raised guidance for all metrics due to the strong quarter.
Segment Performance
By segment, Howmet Aerospace reported significant growth:
Engine-products sales: Rose to $933 million from $821 million, driven by growth in commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, oil and gas, and industrial gas-turbine markets.
- Fastening-systems sales: Increased by 20% to $394 million from $329 million, primarily due to the commercial aerospace market, including wide-body aircraft recovery.
- Engineered-structures sales: Rose 38% to $275 million, driven by growth in commercial aerospace and defense aerospace markets.
- Forged-wheels segment: Sales fell 7% to $278 million due to lower volumes in commercial transportation and a decline in aluminum and other inflationary costs.
Separated from aluminum maker Arconic Inc. in 2020, Howmet Aerospace ( NYSE:HWM ) has established itself as a critical player in the aerospace industry, providing essential components and maintaining a strong market position.
Technical Outlook
Howmet Aerospace ( NYSE:HWM ) stock has experienced a 13% increase as of the present trading period, positioning it above the oversold region with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 74.43, indicating the potential for further upward movement. The daily price chart displays a gapping pattern, a phenomenon observed when a significant price movement occurs in a trading pair with minimal or no trading activity in between. In the case of Howmet Aerospace, the occurrence of the gapping pattern can be attributed to the positive earnings beat news.
Conclusion
Howmet Aerospace's impressive Q2 performance, upgraded guidance, and enhanced shareholder returns program underscore its robust growth and market resilience. With strong demand in commercial and defense aerospace, the company is well-positioned to continue its upward trajectory, offering a promising outlook for investors and stakeholders alike.
Howmet Aerospace Holds a Lot of PotentialNYSE:HWM Howmet Aerospace holds a lot of potential. They manufacture components for jet engines, fasteners, and titanium structures for aerospace applications, and forge aluminum wheels for heavy trucks.
Aluminum products are an excellent choice to help achieve higher energy efficiencies due to their lighter weight. Just to give you an example, aluminum alloy wheels are 30% lighter than steel wheels.
Higher inflation wouldn't affect this company much. In fact, during their last earnings call, I believe they said that 95% of their costs can be passed onto their customers.
The financials have been great since the split from Arconic Inc., but of course, you need to wait for the fundamentals and the technicals to align before you make an entry.
I made my initial purchase the day of the earnings gap. Now that I have a cushion, I added more during the pullback. I believe this earnings gap pullback shows relative strength; it hasn't even come close to the breakout candle.
This stock is a market leader. It's already up 63% in the last 6 months. Hopefully, I can get a nice swing out of this one. What stocks are on your radar right now?
HWM Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: with price at or slightly above 51.35
Volume: with volume greater than 4.56M
Target: 56.71 area (this is an area, no guarantee it reaches this price, but you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 51.34 & target of 56.71, a stop at 49.55 gets you 3/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
HWM - Minor Low BreakoutG/G trend with a pullback after earnings.
Has 3-4 propulsion dots across 13/21/34 propulsion dots.
Vscore area,
RAF just below extremes = Minor low breakout.
The only thing about this price action is I would wish for a larger pullback. The entry here is above 13ema, despite the momentum.
Volume support is lower and starts around 41.30.
I'm going to take a small aggro position if we get a breakout, due to the overall ITA sector strength, but I would like to get a more conservative entry. I would like to enter between the 13 and 21 propulsion dots.
21APR23 42Calls. You could also look at 43 Calls which have more Open Interest.
Entry - $42.10
Profit - $42.95
25% Stop Loss.
$HWM is forming a nice pivot. Can it move higher from here?Notes:
* Strong up trend since 2020
* Great earnings in the recent quarters
* Basing for the past ~14 months
* Recently bounced off historical highs around $31
* Forming a nice and tight pivot area around $35
* Offering a very low risk entry
* Showing signs of strength and accumulation
Technicals:
Sector: Industrials - Specialty Industrial Machinery
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.33
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.31
U/D Ratio: 1.74
Base Depth: 33.89%
Distance from breakout buy point: -4.99%
Volume 8.49% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as it's trying to break above the $35 resistance level
* Or you can wait for a clear break above it before entering
* If you're looking for a lower entry you may find one around the $34.3 area as that's the bottom of the tight range
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 10.23% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 10.03% to 10.43% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 3.69% away from its 50 EMA
