MSFT trade ideas
MSFT Analysis in Three Trading Strategies for Dec. 201. GEX Analysis for Options Trading
Gamma Levels and Key Insights:
* Support Levels:
* $432.5: Major put wall, indicating strong support for downside protection.
* $435.0: GEX9 level, minor support within the current range.
* Resistance Levels:
* $440.0: Significant call wall, indicating resistance for upward movement.
* $450.0: Highest positive NET GEX and a key resistance level above.
* IV and Sentiment:
* IVR: 37 suggests moderate implied volatility.
* Calls %: Low at 16%, showing bearish sentiment in the options market.
Options Strategy:
* Bullish:
* Long calls above $440. Breakout targets $445 and $450. Use $435 as stop-loss.
* Bearish:
* Buy puts below $432.50, targeting $430 and $427.
2. 1-Hour Chart for Swing/Day Trading
Key Observations:
* Trend: Clear bearish trend on the hourly chart with lower highs and lower lows.
* Support and Resistance:
* Immediate support at $435.0.
* Resistance at $440.0, aligned with GEX and trendline resistance.
* Indicators:
* EMA (9/21): Bearish alignment with EMAs trending down.
* MACD: Negative histogram and bearish crossover confirm selling pressure.
Swing/Day Trading Setup:
* Bullish:
* Entry: Above $440 with volume.
* Target: $445, with $437 as stop-loss.
* Bearish:
* Entry: Below $435.
* Target: $432 and $430, with a stop-loss above $437.
3. 2-Minute Chart for Scalping
Key Observations:
* Trend: Downtrend with immediate rejection near $437 and weak bounce attempts.
* Scalping Levels:
* Resistance: $437.85.
* Support: $435.0.
* Volume:
* Increased selling pressure near the close suggests continuation of bearish moves.
* Indicators:
* EMA (9/21): Dynamic resistance, reinforcing bearish structure.
* MACD: Bearish divergence near resistance confirms downtrend.
Scalping Strategy:
* Bullish:
* Entry: Break above $437.
* Target: $438.50.
* Stop-loss: Below $436.50.
* Bearish:
* Entry: Break below $435.
* Target: $433.50.
* Stop-loss: Above $435.50.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately before trading.
Microsoft (MSFT): What’s Next? Will It Break $455.34 Morning, Trading Family! Let’s Talk About Microsoft (MSFT): Will It Break $455.34 or Head Lower?
Microsoft’s stock is at a key level, and the next move could set the tone for what’s ahead. The magic number right now is $455.34. Will we see a breakout to new highs, or could the price dip lower before bouncing back? Let’s break it down step by step so everyone’s ready!
If Microsoft Breaks Above $455.34
If the stock moves above $455.34 and holds steady, it could signal that buyers are in control.
What could happen?
The price might head up toward $460 or even $465. These levels could be the next spots where the stock takes a breather.
What should we watch?
Look for strong movement above $455.34 with good trading volume (lots of action). If the price quickly dips back below, it could mean the breakout isn’t real yet.
How can we trade it?
If the price holds above $455.34, it might be a good time to think about buying with a target around $460. Just make sure to use a stop-loss in case the trade doesn’t go as planned.
If Microsoft Drops Below $455.34
If the stock struggles to stay above $455.34, we could see a pullback.
The first key level:
Watch $449. This is the next area where buyers might step in to stop the price from falling.
If $449 doesn’t hold:
The price could drop further, landing somewhere in the $443–$438 range, where stronger support is likely.
How can we trade it?
Be patient! If the price dips, wait for signs that it’s stabilizing at a support level before making any moves.
What If the Price Drops Below $438?
If MSFT falls below $438, it could mean the stock is turning more bearish. At that point, we’ll need to step back and reassess the trend.
Tips for Today’s Trading
If you’re bullish: Wait for the price to break and hold above $455.34 before jumping in.
If you’re bearish: Watch for a clean break below $449 for potential short opportunities.
Always: Use stop-losses to protect yourself and trade with a plan!
Bottom Line:
The $455.34 level is the line in the sand. If we break above, it’s good news for the bulls. If not, we could see a dip to $449 or lower.
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
MSFT Update: Potential ABC Correction
o The weekly chart suggests the completion of a 5-wave impulse to the upside.
o Currently, the price is forming an ABC corrective structure:
o Wave A is complete and has tested the previous demand zone.
o Wave B appears to be forming a rising wedge (bearish continuation pattern).
o Wave C is anticipated to move lower, targeting deeper demand zones (374-360).
o The RSI on the 4H timeframe shows bearish divergence at recent highs, aligning with the corrective wave outlook.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." – Warren Buffett
"The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." – Alexander Elder
Stay disciplined and adhere to your risk management rules!
Disclaimer
This idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
MICROSOFT 460 BY 2025 ?TOP 3 REASONS WHY !!
Earnings Growth: One of the most important factors for any growth Astock is earnings growth1. Microsoft has a historical EPS growth rate of 21.3%, and it’s projected to grow 13.2% this year, outpacing the industry average. This consistent and robust earnings growth is a strong indicator of the company’s financial health and future prospects, which could drive its stock price higher.
Cloud Services: Microsoft Azure, the company’s cloud platform, has been a significant driver of growth. Demand for cloud infrastructure services is higher than ever, as organizations seek digital solutions in a post-COVID-19 world. With Azure’s revenue increasing by 48%, it’s expected to exceed both Office and Windows in annual revenue by next year. This growth in the cloud sector represents a massive opportunity for Microsoft and could be a major factor in boosting its stock price.
Productivity and Gaming: Microsoft’s productivity and business processes segment, which includes Office 365, has shown solid results with consistent revenue growth. The transition of Office to a subscription service has been beneficial for Microsoft’s core software business2. Additionally, the gaming sector, particularly Xbox, is another area where Microsoft is seeing significant growth2. With the successful launch of the Xbox Series X and Series S, and the rapid growth of the Xbox Game Pass subscription service, the future looks bright for Microsoft’s gaming business.
The future is $MSFT buysKey Stats:
Market Cap: $3.33T
P/E Ratio: 37.1 (growth priced in, but justified)
Revenue Growth YoY: +13% (cloud and AI turbocharging top-line growth)
Next Earnings Date: January 29, 2025
Technical Reasons MSFT Will Increase:
Breakout confirmed above $370: A decisive move through resistance with heavy volume screams “smart money is in.”
Golden cross on daily chart: The 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day, historically a precursor to sustained rallies.
Uptrend intact: Higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart signal MSFT is firmly in a bullish phase.
Fundamental Reasons MSFT Will Increase:
AI Growth Engine: Azure’s seamless integration of OpenAI services has cemented MSFT as a leader in the AI race, driving enterprise adoption.
Earnings Momentum: Analysts have raised FY2025 EPS estimates by 8% in the last 3 months, reflecting growing confidence in MSFT’s execution.
Cloud Profitability Soaring: Operating margins in the Intelligent Cloud segment hit 46%, a level competitors can only dream of.
Potential Paths to Profit:
Option 1 (Lowest Risk): Buy shares outright and ride the trend to $464.
Option 2: Buy March 2025 $450 call options for leveraged upside exposure.
Option 3: Use a bull call spread by buying the $450 call and selling the $470 call to lower costs and lock in a defined risk-reward.
Option 4: Short puts at $370 to collect premium, betting MSFT stays above recent breakout levels.
Disclaimer: We are not a brokerage or investment firm. We do not offer financial advice or investment advice and/or signals. This is not certified financial education. We offer access to the daily thought process of an individual and his experiences. We do not offer refunds. All sales are final.
GEX Analysis for MSFT on Dec. 13, 2024Current Price: $447.90
IVR: 7.8
IVx Average: 19.8
Options Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bullish with 31.7% in Calls.
Key Levels:
* HVL (High Volume Level): $445.00
* Support Levels:
* First Support: $445.00 (GEX9 Level and HVL)
* Second Support: $440.00 (PUT Support)
* Third Support: $437.50 (2nd PUT Wall)
* Resistance Levels:
* First Resistance: $450.00 (Highest Positive NETGEX Level)
* Second Resistance: $452.50 (3rd CALL Wall)
* Major Resistance: $457.50 (GEX8 Level)
Market Sentiment:
* The highest positive NETGEX is at $450.00, indicating a key resistance level. Breaking above this could propel MSFT toward $452.50 or higher.
* Below $445.00, bearish sentiment might strengthen, targeting $440.00 and $437.50.
Actionable Strategy:
* Bullish Setup: Long positions above $450.00, targeting $452.50, with a stop loss at $447.50.
* Bearish Setup: Short positions below $445.00, targeting $440.00, with a stop loss at $446.50.
Reminder:
Always monitor updated IVR and IVx metrics for real-time conditions before entering any trade. These metrics provide critical insights for decision-making.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always perform your own research before trading.
Analysis for MSFT – December 11, 2024Key Observations:
* Price Movement: MSFT is currently trading at $448.40, testing resistance levels near $450, while support lies around $445.
* Volume Insights: Volume has been relatively steady but shows spikes near critical levels, indicating institutional activity.
GEX Levels and Interpretation:
1. Resistance Levels:
* 450 (Highest Positive NETGEX/Call Resistance): This represents the strongest call resistance and may act as a cap unless significant buying pressure occurs.
* 455 (2nd Call Wall): A breakout above $450 could lead to testing this level, with moderate resistance at $455.
2. Support Levels:
* 445: Key immediate support; a breach below could drive MSFT toward lower support zones.
* 440 (Put Support): A critical level supported by significant put flow, likely to cushion further downside moves.
Options Oscillator Insights:
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 7 – Implied volatility is extremely low, indicating cheap options. Suitable for buying strategies rather than selling.
* IVx (Implied Volatility Average): 19.9% – Reflects moderate volatility expectations.
* Call %: 41.9% – Indicates a moderately bullish sentiment, with calls being favored slightly over puts.
Options Trade Recommendation:
1. Bullish Scenario:
* Trade Setup: Buy MSFT $450 Call expiring December 22, 2024.
* Target Levels: Look for a breakout to $455.
* Risk Management: Stop-loss at $445.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* Trade Setup: Buy MSFT $440 Put expiring December 22, 2024.
* Target Levels: Breakdown to $440 or below.
* Risk Management: Stop-loss above $450.
Conclusion:
MSFT is consolidating near key resistance, with a breakout above $450 signaling bullish momentum. The Options Oscillator suggests low implied volatility, making it favorable for directional trades. Both bullish and bearish opportunities exist depending on price action around critical GEX levels.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade based on your risk tolerance and consult with a financial advisor.
MSFT on the moveNASDAQ:MSFT looks fantastic. I like the pattern here: bullish crossovers on KST and Chaikin, KST breaking above a descending trendline, consistent movement along upper daily BB, and daily BB breaking out of the weekly BB.
ADX doesn't fall to 10 frequently. 9 times since 2015. All instances were higher within 100 sessions, averaging 18% performance.
23% when excluding the times that the TRIX+SO wasn't showing an uptrend.
A move to the 1.618 would be in line with what we've historically seen.
(1D) MICROSOFT ANALYSIS (MSFT)Inspired by today's failed Bitcoin shareholders' vote, I've put up my prognosis for Microsoft MSFT for the next few months. MSFT is down almost 1.5% on the day, rejecting at the 78.8% retracement of the down move from the ATH.
There are a couple possible scenarios going forward. Bullish case is that MSFT started a Bull Flag Correction (waves labeled in blue) with the pivot from the ATH in July. If so, we are completing Wave B of this flag (internal waves labelled in purple) , which may have completed already with this 78.6% rejection. However, we could still see it complete a 100% retracement instead and terminate as a Double Top, retesting and getting rejected at the ATH. This would signal the start of Wave C. We could expect this final wave to have a similar size to Wave A, giving us a short-term 17% Short play from the ATH before ultimately continuing the larger upside trend.
Bearish case would be that Wave B described above (labelled in purple) is instead actually a Bear Flag for downside. This would have to be confirmed with a break below the $385 Support Range.
**This analysis would be invalidated if we do indeed get a breakout above the current ATH, factoring in for some % overshoot (aka fake breakout).
Elliott Wave View: Microsoft (MSFT) Shows Incomplete Impulsive SShort Term Elliott Wave in Microsoft (MSFT) suggests rally from 11.4.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 11.4.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 427 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 410.35 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Internal subdivision of wave 2 unfolded as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 416 and wave ((b)) ended at 429.32. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 410.35 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. The stock has turned higher in wave 3.
Internal subdivision of wave 3 is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive structure. Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 415.94 and wave (ii) ended at 411. Wave (iii) higher ended at 421.08 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 414.85. Wave (v) higher ended at 429.04 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 417.80 and the stock has resumed higher again. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 435.47 and wave (ii) ended at 430.12. Wave (iii) higher ended at 446.1 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 440.50. Expect the stock to extend higher in wave (v) to complete wave ((iii)). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 11.29.2024 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher again.
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Hits a 4.5-Month HighMicrosoft (MSFT) Stock Hits a 4.5-Month High
On 31 October, our analysis of Microsoft (MSFT) stock highlighted:
→ The price is forming a long-term upward channel, illustrated in blue.
→ The channel’s lower boundary serves as a significant support level.
On Friday, MSFT stock climbed to $445, its highest level since mid-July, buoyed by news that OpenAI may grant Microsoft access to key AI-related technologies.
Will the Price Continue to Rise?
There are reasons to suspect that the bullish momentum may not sustain.
Technical analysis of MSFT’s chart today suggests:
→ The price is near the median of the long-term channel, and this median could act as resistance. This is hinted at by the long upper shadows on Thursday and Friday’s candles.
→ The emerging bullish breakout above the September high around $441 might prove to be a false breakout, similar to the false bearish breakout of early October support near $408 (highlighted with arrows).
Additionally, Microsoft’s stock has underperformed compared to market indices, which are at historic highs. This could mean the price may retrace to $430 or lower, aligning more closely with average autumn levels.
Analysts, however, remain optimistic about MSFT’s prospects. According to TipRanks:
→ 26 out of 29 analysts recommend buying MSFT stock.
→ The average 12-month price target for MSFT is $497.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Msft last opportunities.Hi traders is mpho again I decided to share last prediction of Microsoft,am expecting a last pump before end of this year and we only have few weeks,however in my stock list the only,cheap stock n available for buys is Microsoft n nvidia am in this trades too,I wish you the best and happy new year in advance be blessed,note that trading is risky you might loose all your money,trade accordingly n use proper money management thank you.
MSFT Bullish on the weekly and daily My thought process is MSFT will follow the entire market who's been breaking out to ATH's. Sitting in a weekly and daily buy. Weekly breakout of double bottom pattern
As far as options check out:
1/17/25 470 calls (3.15) ATH
1/17/25 450 calls (9.30)
If we not headed to the top where we going?!
XMAS RALLY HERE WE COME
Microsoft - Breaking TradeThere was a great breakout trade opportunity on Microsoft's stock, enhanced by a refined entry strategy. The red zone highlights a key resistance level where the price struggled to break through. A breakout occurred with a strong bullish candlestick, confirming buyers' strength.
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Copilot to elevate MSFT, or will attached price tag be a drag?NASDAQ:MSFT took a hit following the release of the earnings report this week and is now trading just off the bottom of a channel it has been in since August. Price has been in a kind of consolidation mode on the lower time frames since the release. On the daily chart, we see that red days have relatively high-volume spikes, the MACD has turned negative, and RSI is nearing oversold levels. The fact that price has not continued to drop following the initial post-earnings drop, indicates it might stabilize at this level. My hunch is that it will consolidate and maybe approach the lower band of the channel, and then start climbing. There is some pressure on tech stocks at the moment, and there is an election next week, so might be a bit of rough sailing ahead. My gut tells me MSFT will bounce back, and I am long. As for target I would set my eyes on the upper band of the channel and consider a breach to the downside of the channel as a red flag.
To quote ChatGPT:
To provide a well-rounded summary of Microsoft's latest earnings report, I would highlight:
1. Revenue Growth : Microsoft reported notable revenue increases, driven by its cloud and AI segments.
2. Azure's Performance : Strong growth in Azure and AI services reinforces Microsoft's competitiveness in the cloud space, a vital area given current industry trends.
3. AI Investment : Increased spending on AI research and development reflects the company’s focus on leveraging AI as a growth driver.
These elements can positively impact Microsoft’s outlook, appealing to investors prioritizing innovation and digital transformation.
MSFT SHORT CYCLE MSFT has been consolidating within a range for the past few weeks, forming a potential head and shoulders pattern. This bearish reversal pattern suggests that the stock may be nearing a top. The RSI indicator is also showing signs of overbought conditions, further supporting the possibility of a downward trend.
