NVDA vs. AAPLFinding support at bottom of wedge this week. NVDA looks ready to outperform AAPL for the time being.
NNNVIDIA CORP CEDEAR EAC 24 REP 1(USD)
6.00USDD
+0.04+0.67%
At close at 20:00 GMT
USD
No trades
NVDAD trade ideas
NVIDIA ($NVDA) Technical Analysis: Buy or Hold?
Many of my friends and family are passionate investors in NASDAQ:NVDA , predominantly tech enthusiasts eager to capitalize on NVIDIA’s innovative trajectory. Recently, a fellow software engineer made a strategic purchase following a notable deep dive into the stock. This brings us to the pivotal question:
“To Buy or Not to Buy NVIDIA?”
Let’s delve into a comprehensive Technical Analysis (TA) to provide clarity.
📊 Current Price Position
Examining NVIDIA’s current price action on a weekly timeframe, we gain a holistic view of its overarching bullish trend. As of now, the stock is at a critical juncture where the established bull trend may be transitioning into a prolonged sideways movement or potentially signaling a reversal.
📈 Trend Line Analysis
A key observation is the interaction with the ascending trend line. NASDAQ:NVDA appears to be breaking or testing this trend line, which is a significant indicator. While trend lines are not infallible predictors, they offer valuable insights into potential market movements.
- Bullish Perspective: If the trend line holds, NVIDIA could resume its upward trajectory, reaffirming the strength of its bullish momentum.
- Bearish Possibility: A sustained break below the trend line might indicate a shift towards a consolidation phase or even a trend reversal, warranting caution.
🔄 Market Sentiment and Consolidation Range
Considering the broader market conditions, the probability of an overarching bear market remains low. This suggests that NVIDIA may likely enter a consolidation phase, potentially oscillating between the $100 and $130 price levels in the near to medium term.
- Long-Term Investors: Can maintain their positions with confidence, leveraging NVIDIA’s solid fundamentals and growth prospects.
- Short to Medium-Term Traders: Might prefer to wait for a clearer directional move before initiating new positions, minimizing exposure to potential sideways volatility.
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📈 Technical Indicators Overview
To bolster our analysis, let’s incorporate key technical indicators:
1. Moving Averages:
- 50-Week MA: Currently acting as support/resistance.
- 200-Week MA: Long-term trend indicator; NVIDIA remains above, signaling sustained bullishness.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI):
- Positioned around 60, indicating bullish momentum without being overextended.
3. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
- MACD line above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
4. Volume Analysis:
- Steady trading volumes suggest balanced buying and selling pressure, supporting the consolidation outlook.
🔮 Conclusion & Strategy
NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stands at a critical crossroads. The technical indicators collectively suggest a potential consolidation phase between $100 and $130.
- For Long-Term Investors: Hold your positions, as the fundamentals and long-term outlook remain robust.
- For Short to Medium-Term Traders: Wait for a breakout or a clearer trend direction before committing, to optimize entry points and manage risk effectively.
📌 Key Takeaway: While NVIDIA exhibits strong technical foundations, patience and strategic positioning will be crucial in navigating the upcoming market movements.
💡 Trading Strategy Suggestion
- Support Level: $100
- Resistance Level: $130
- Watch for: Breakouts above $130 for bullish continuation or breakdowns below $100 signaling potential bearish trends.
Stay tuned for more in-depth analyses and trading strategies. Happy Trading! 🚀
*Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.*
NVDA Stock Price Didn't Drop Because Of DeepSeek AloneNASDAQ:NVDA
As has been said all this time, that price discounts everything. NVDA shares did not fall just because of the existence of DeepSeek.
As seen in the chart above, NVDA shares formed a broadening wedge pattern, and this occurred after previously experiencing a significant price increase. Technically, this pattern itself has given a sign that NVDA shares will decline.
However, at the same time, news emerged about the existence of DeepSeek which then made investors panic and suspect that NVDA was no longer the market leader so they sold NVDA shares until the price fell. Then this broadening wedge pattern was confirmed.
The market always responds earlier before the news that "confirms" the trend.
Easy money on $NVDA breakout todayIn the meanwhile why not take easy money on perfect morning triangle shape paired with charting setup of previous day and confirmed by lower low and double bottom stabilization. Too many points confirming the same thing to miss out on.
Alerted it live in TradingView chatroom, hope you profited on it 👍
$121.50+ break was the trigger for a buy, it continued uptrending into market close $129. Total $7.50 per share or +6%
We'll see what kind of setup develops tomorrow.
Is NVDA's $600 Billion Drop Due to DeepSeek?Is NVDA's $600 Billion Drop Due to DeepSeek?
From my observation, the answer is no. NVIDIA had been experiencing continuous breakout growth for several months, reaching a double-top peak at the same time the AI wave was at its strongest. This led to the company's valuation multiplying several times from its lows.
The $140+ range was around the peak valuation for NVDA. Therefore, in the next few months, a correction below $100 is inevitable. Even without DeepSeek, a similar event would have triggered this correction, as it is a natural phase for a company that has experienced such rapid and sustained growth. Framing it as an AI-driven narrative simply makes the situation more convincing.
Looking at the chart, NVDA will likely top out, correct downward to form a bottom, then rebound to a new high before the larger 3M cycle correction begins.
NVDA | Trade PlanPrice was successfully bouncing off of EMA support until now
I drew out the major pathways of pivot for a better understanding of what price will most likely do next
As we analyze these pivots you'll notice that buyer become weaker in each wave giving sellers the opportunity for deeper corrections
The last wave (3) had a correction so deep that it basically used the top of wave 2 for support (SnR)
Seeing this will give us the idea that sellers will most likely look to head back to that major pivot as wave 4 barley made a Higher High creating divergence, and has already broke below the high of the last wave
The next steps I would like to see price action inch its way up to somewhat fill the gap above to only see further selling towards $100 - $97 area.
Note:
This is a price action/wave analysis, the purpose of doing this is to have another perspective without having to rely on a chart pattern
When we look at it this way we can have a better anticipation on what buyers are going to do next.
NVIDIA in Correction phaseWhat to Expect After Nvidia's Major Market Cap Tumble
Rocky White
Wed, January 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM GMT+5 2 min read
Expectations were high for artificial intelligence (AI) companies, but they took a hit on Monday after Chinese startup DeepSeek claimed it can spend way less money and deliver AI performance comparable to major tech firms.
This triggered massive selloffs in megacap stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 17%, losing over $500 billion in market capitalization -- a record-breaking decline, larger than the entire market cap of companies like Mastercard (MA), Netflix (NFLX), Costco (COST), and Bank of America (BAC).
Broadcom (AVGO) also plunged 17%, losing about $200 billion in market value, while Oracle (ORCL) fell roughly 14%, or $70 billion in market cap. It made me curious how stocks have tended to perform after such massive losses.
NVDA | Distribution Pattern to $97Follow up to the rising wedge pattern
After seeing price bounce off of trendline support 4 times then to finally breakout we could see the next moves sell off towards the discount zone
To add more confluence to this setup we're looking at the difference between price and indication and it's signaling a selloff based on divergence and the medium blue signal re-entering the 80/20 channel forecast bearish momentum stepping into play
I'm eyeing targets around $97 and the possibility of seeing movement back towards major resistance ($152) to re-confirm price structure for any further selling beyond $97
Stay posted for any major updates on price action.
Maybe it's time to revisit this chart along with $NVDAIf you bought NASDAQ:NVDA and you're nervous:
First establish why you bought it first place?
What was your trade plan at the time of the buy?
Where was the planned Take Profit?
Where was the planned Stop Loss?
Are you still strictly following that plan right now?
Did you buy it for short term hold or long term?
If you bought it for long term and it's still within your trade plan then why worry or even think about it?
If you bought it for short term then execute your trade plan, it's just a trade.
If you broke all your rules and it's way below your planned Stop Loss and now you're looking around trying to find people who are hyping it up trying to make yourself feel better - don't do that, those people hyping it up are in loss with you as well.
Check the image I added, detach yourself emotionally and review the chart to estabish where we might be position and what might come next then set up a strict plan to follow from here on.
$NVDA - Resilience in ActionNASDAQ:NVDA
In my previous post (linked above) I noted the amount of macro upwards pressure NASDAQ:NVDA
Even with the market becoming leary of (or noticing other A.I. developer options), NASDAQ:NVDA still just makes the HARDWARE that these A.I. models are able to use and abuse in order to perform better. NASDAQ:NVDA will continue to create great hardware, and continually iterate on the items that will continue to make A.I. great.
My recommendation? Continue to hold, and buy at these lower levels. NASDAQ:NVDA will continue to rise.
NVIDIA hit its 1W MA50 after 2 years! One last rally left?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) opened significantly lower on Monday following the DeepSeek news on more efficient and lower cost A.I. competition and by doing so, the price hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 years, resulting in Tuesday's very strong rebound.
We have to go back to the week of January 23 2023 to see NVDA trading again on the 1W MA50, which became the major Support of the Channel Up pattern that took it off the 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom.
So the question is, does NVIDIA have fuel left in the tank for one more rally? Technically the answer is yes and it can be found on the stock's price action since July 2015. As you can see, the price has gone through 3 similar eras of Bull Cycles through Channel Up patterns and subsequent Bear Cycles of strong corrections that touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) before initiating the new Bull.
From the Bear Cycle bottom to the Bull Cycle's top, NVIDIA took around 1100 days (1162 during the 2015 - 2018 Cycle and 1071 during the 2019 - 2021 Cycle). Assuming the current Cycle will be at least as long as the last one (1071 days), the stock's Top is expected to be around September 2015.
It was in fact around this time during the last Cycle (Feb 2021) when NVIDIA touched again its 1W MA50, resulting into a new rally phase, the last one of the Cycle. This historic price action shows that during its last year, the stock always makes a January - Oct/Nov rally. When the 1W MA50 gets hit again, it is when the new Bear Cycle is confirmed.
As a result, based on this data set, we've entered NVIDIA's final rally of the Cycle, assuming of course it doesn't close a candle below the 1W MA50 and also that the 1M RSI recovers its MA trend-line (yellow), which also happened again during its previous Cycle.
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NVDA at a Crossroads: Breakout or Breakdown?1️⃣ Trend Analysis:
Long-term Uptrend: NVDA has been on a strong bullish trajectory since late 2023.
Current Price Action: The stock is consolidating within a key range, battling between $130.62 (support) and $151.43 (resistance).
2️⃣ Key Levels to Watch:
🚀 Resistance: $151.43 (Major breakout zone)
🛡️ Support 1: $130.62 (Holding this level = bullish rebound)
⚠️ Critical Support: $118.22 (Break below = bearish signal)
🔥 Demand Zone: $96.59 - $100.00 (Potential dip-buying area)
3️⃣ Two Possible Scenarios:
✅ 🚀 Bullish Breakout:
If NVDA holds above $130.62, a rally toward $151.43 is likely.
A confirmed breakout above $151.43 could send it into price discovery mode.
❌ 📉 Bearish Breakdown:
Losing $127.57 - $118.22 could trigger a steep decline toward the $96.59 - $100.00 support zone.
A breakdown below $96.59 = Major trend reversal warning.
4️⃣ Final Takeaway:
Short-term Bias: Neutral with a slight bearish tilt.
Long-term Bias: Bullish unless $118.22 fails.
🚦 Key Action Point: Watch for confirmation before making a move!
📊 Trade Smart, Stay Sharp! 🔥
⚠️ Risk management is crucial – trading decisions are solely the trader’s responsibility.
Disruptive Innovation and EconomyDeepSeek is a disruptive innovation and could also become a disruptive economic force.
On Monday, NVIDIA dropped 17%, only to rise 9% yesterday. Yet, it remains in an upward trend channel. Why is that?
I tried downloading the DeepSeek app.
After reading a significant portion of the privacy policy, I wouldn’t call it privacy at all—it does not comply with EU regulations. I decided against registering an account and deleted the app.
I believe DeepSeek will face limitations in Europe and beyond, but it has demonstrated that AI innovation is no longer exclusive to large US corporations. It is now entirely feasible to develop AI models based in Europe and Scandinavia. This is crucial, as it allows us to work with AI models that are not inherently biased toward either China or the US.
With Trump back in power, geopolitical uncertainty has increased. The US approach to technology, trade, and AI regulation is now less predictable, making it even more important for Europe to develop independent AI models. A diversified and democratized AI landscape will drive demand for GPUs and contribute to a more balanced technological ecosystem.
Disclaimer: I have a position in NVIDIA.
NVDA Long After Nearly 20% DeclineNASDAQ:NVDA got hit hard by the huge sell-off today and because of the DeepSeek release. The Chinese GPT alternative claims to be better or at least as good as GPT using way less and way older NVDA GPUs. If true, this could create a lot of stress on the CapEx of big US tech companies because the managers will ask their employees why they needed to buy all of those expensive GPUs if they are not necessary at all. That would lead to shrinking sales at NVDA. So far, so bad.
But, we should not forget that misinformation is always a thing when talking about Chinese companies and claims. I also don't think that the result of such a claim would be that tech companies lower their CapEx and start doing less. Instead they will use this to understand how DeepSeek works and how they can be better than their Chinese counterpart using way more powerful GPUs. So, this huge sell-off could trigger a bounce from this confluence support. We perfectly hit the upward trend and a support level at $118. So, be brave and test the water.
Target Zones
$131
$140
Support Zones
$118
Nvidia could still be seriously overvaluedIf the release of DeepSeek's AI models really is as disruptive as some suspect, Nvidia bulls could be seriously questioning if they want to hold onto the stock for the long haul. And that means some bulls could be looking to offload into a bounce while bears seek to fade into them. I highlight some key levels for bears to keep an eye on.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst City Index and Forex.com
NVDA Technical Analysis and GEX InsightsCurrent Overview
* Price: NVDA is trading at 127.63, recovering from recent lows with significant bullish momentum.
* Trend: The stock is rebounding sharply after a strong sell-off, with potential resistance levels ahead.
* Market Note: Market conditions can shift at the open; adaptability is crucial. Reassess these levels and trends post-market open for alignment with updated momentum.
Technical Analysis
1. Key Levels:
* Support:
* 125.00: Immediate support, also aligned with the HVL.
* 123.00: Critical level near Fibonacci retracement and previous consolidation.
* Resistance:
* 130.00: A significant barrier with visible selling pressure in past price action.
* 133.00–135.00: Upper resistance near a gamma wall and potential rejection zone.
2. Momentum Indicators:
* MACD: Bullish crossover, signaling growing upward momentum but showing a slowing curve.
* Stochastic RSI: Recovering from oversold, with potential to push higher if momentum continues.
3. Volume:
* High trading volumes during the recent rally suggest strong buying interest, supporting further upside if sustained.
4. Trendlines:
* Downtrend resistance near 129–130: A break above this would confirm a short-term reversal.
* Support trendline near 123–124, reinforcing a solid base.
GEX (Gamma Exposure) Insights
1. Gamma Walls:
* Call Walls:
* 130.00: 88.36% of the 2nd Call Wall, acting as key resistance.
* 140.00: 76.73% of the 3rd Call Wall, marking a significant upside target if 130 breaks.
* Put Walls:
* 120.00: Major put support, reflecting downside protection.
* 115.00: Another key level, with strong negative GEX support.
2. IVR and Options Flow:
* IVR: 45, reflecting moderate implied volatility.
* Calls vs. Puts: Calls dominate at 34.7%, indicating a bullish sentiment in options activity.
* GEX Direction: Positive, suggesting a stable to bullish market bias.
Market Direction Scenarios
1. Bullish:
* A breakout above 130 could lead NVDA toward 133–135, supported by gamma exposure and momentum continuation.
2. Bearish:
* Failure to hold 125 may result in a pullback to 120, with 115 as a significant lower support.
Key Notes:
* The market will likely adjust at the open; use these levels as a guide but adapt to real-time price action and volume shifts.
If you’d like an updated analysis after the market opens, feel free to send me a message for a real-time update.
